Ohio health official estimates 100,000 Ohioans already carrying coronavirus

Unless several of those deaths which are currently attributed to the flu or pneumonia are actually being caused by COVID

Also, you can only get an accurate gauge of mortality by reviewing the percentage of those who die versus those who are fully recovered. In other words, if you are still infected, then you might still die from the virus.

 

What about my post do you not believe?

 

As I said in the OP, it is entirely possible (nay, likely) that the numbers reported in other countries are low, both because of asymptomatic or low severity people not being tested and because countries have an incentive to reduce panic by failing to report accurate numbers.

 

Cuomo is opening up drive thru test kits explicitly because the amount of testing has been and continues to be an issue.

 

And he just personally thanked Trump and Pence for acting quickly to his request. A dem that is putting this bs partisanship on the back burning and being realistic. I was very impressed with speech, he specifically said he said way more fear than justified.

 

She's having to guess because of the testing fiasco, but she's probably correct, within plus/minus half a percent. She might be high-balling the number a bit to justify the state-wide school-closure. The Republican governor certainly isn't contradicting her.

But it's not hysterical to claim that, today, 100,000 people in Ohio currently have it. The hospitalizations and deaths wouldn't start until about 7-10 days later. The number of infected seems to double every six days. If you figure it doubles every four days in places that aren't doing anything to slow the spread, then that means four days ago, there were 50,000 sick people in Ohio, 25,000 roughly a week ago, and only 12,000 12 days ago. That would result in an extra 150 or so deaths to flu-like illness across the state and a couple hundred more critically ill people than normal. Ohio has 27,000 hospital beds. Unless someone was paying real close attention to hospital admissions in the state, those numbers would be lost to the statistical noise generated by a normal flu.

This, by the way, is exactly how Italy got overwhelmed: a quarter percent infected becomes half a percent becomes one percent (still unnoticeable), becomes 2%, becomes 4%, and soon you're inundated with cases you didn't even suspect were out there.

I bet when they go back and look at who died, they're going to pick up a lot of cases they thought were flu-related.

 

Once you begin showing community spread of the virus, the proper regiment is to advice people to not go out much, to avoid contact and close encounters with others, cancel public events, and teach people to take the other necessary precautions such as regularly watch you hands etc. If people aren't heeding the advice, then you either have to forcibly quarantine people or end up finding tens of millions infected and tens of thousands dying. That is why you see most countries take what appears to be drastic, and unprecedented, steps. Not every country in the world is involved in your partisan politics and not everyone is focused on hurting "Trump"!

In this regard, the main differences with the flu are mostly the things we don't still know for sure about the virus but also some little (worrying) hints about things we do know. One of those things is that while most people aren't going to get very ill, a certain fraction (including otherwise healthy people) get really sick and some of them even die. While most people have experience with the flu and, based on that experience, aren't going to fret much over the flu, this is a new virus and since it does make some people very ill and even kills some otherwise healthy people, they will worry about it more. That is also part of the 'human DNA" and it is equally unrealistic for you to try to pretend otherwise.

 

Great. Good for Cuomo. Hopefully his willingness to praise Trump will result in more Trump supporters believing that this virus is serious and that they need to prepare.

 

I think your miss reading Trump supporters completely. Everyone knows its serious but its not a death sentence like a lot of the left and media make it out to be. Its flu like unless you have respitory issues. It's not floating around everywhere just waiting for you to walk outside, you can avoid it with precaution and staying away from group settings. It's not the end of the world, it's a fast spreading virus that spreads and can lead to deadly pneumonia if your high risk, just like the flu. We literally had someone early saying on here that it was going to wipe out demographics, good grief the data doesn't support any of that.

 

It's been here since November December so I really wouldn't be surprised lol

 

It's been here since November December so I really wouldn't be surprised lol

 

LoL if 100k people have the virus in Ohio that destroys you're "we're all gonna die" bull****.

The GLOBAL death rate RIGHT NOW using ONLY confirmed cases is 0.03%.

The MORE confirmed cases without MORE deaths only lowers that, and shows what geniuses the left really is.

 

That is objectively false.

 

There are people on this forum who defend trump and attack those trying to make warnings based on the currently known data by making explicit references to Jussie Smollett.

2/3rds of Republicans believe that the coverage of Covid, a virus that Trump declared a national emergency TODAY, is being overhyped. That contrasts against 34% of Independents and 31% of Democrats.

Even here you keep making the objectively false claim that this virus is like the flu. The data shows that it kills at least 10x more, overall, than the flu and if you are elderly, it will kill you ~15x.

If you guys are now coming around to believing that that "its serious" and "a fast spreading virus that spreads and can lead to deadly pneumonia," then congrats. And keep evolving.

 

Good hysteria-free description of the situation.

 

You chance of dying to Covid19 is 0.03%, overall, based on CONFIRMED cases.

We know there are a lot more than 140,000 people worldwide with the Wuhan virus.

It's practically zero unless you're over 60 with existing serious health conditions.

 

Are you like, the PR rep for corona virus panic? Or a Russian troll taking amusement in making Americans panic over nothing? If the 4% mortality that is claimed for corona virus was happening for the flu, then we would know.

100,000 cases with a 4% mortality rate is 4000 corona deaths that should of happened in Ohio alone. A quick google search shows there have only been 4000 hospitalizations for the flu in ohio, much less deaths. So either the 100000 number is nonsense or the 4% mortality rate is nonsense, or the most likely scenario, they are both nonsense.

 

A significant part of our population wont quarantine . It will spread like wildfire. This novel virus might be a game changer given an economic disruption . The pin that popped the current bubble.

 

4% mortality is not the report. The WHO, based on current data, put it at 3.4%. Dr. Fauci testified yesterday that the death rate will probably end up closer to 1%.

And the problem with saying that there should be 4000 corona deaths in ohio or even 1000 corona deaths based on the mortality rate is that you are mistakenly assuming that those people should already be dead. To put it another way, you can only gauge mortality rate by comparing the people who have died against the people who have fully recovered.

If you still have the virus (i.e. the 100,000 estimate in Ohio), then you can still die from the virus.

 

And yet is being hyped by the media more than H1N1 which was far worse.

Pneumonia kills 50,000 a year with a million hospitalizations.

When we get to 50k deaths in America, I'll agree it's a problem worthy of the current hysteria.

Until then, it's all white ropes and bleach bottles.

 

Again, that is objectively false.

The mortality rate, based on currently available and confirmed cases is around 2-2.5% according to Doctor Fauci who testified to that fact before Congress yesterday. He believes that the rate will end up closer to 1% as we get a better idea of the true number of cases out there.

But it is objectively false to claim that the mortality rate is 0.03%. I suspect you are making the same mistake that Capn Awesome has done by comparing the number dead against the total number of cases. You ignore the fact that the vast majority of those cases are people who are STILL infected. Instead, you need to compare the rate of people who have fully recovered against the dead. If you still have the virus, you can still die by the virus.

 

As an initial matter, the H1N1 virus has a mortality rate of 0.01%. Covid-19 has a mortality rate that is 100x higher, on the low end.

You want to wait until AFTER this virus has killed 50k to believe that the virus is serious?

Even though we have no vaccine, no antiviral, and no antibodies? Even though we have zero idea whether this virus has a season? Even though we know that the virus is already more lethal and more virulent than pneumonia and the flu?

Seriously?

 

I don't see the point, other then to create hysterics to assess and predict anything while having to admit or use the disclaimer " based on currently available and confirmed cases". Clearly by admission the data is tainted and inaccurate and thusly nothing more then a sloppy guess.

 

And is it any less moronic to predict deaths using the very same data?

 

Let me help you with math.

If the mortality rate is 3.6 that means you have a 0.036% chance of dying from it. (5k/140k) (3.6% of 140k = 5k)

THE DEATH RATE = (NUMBER OF DEATHS/NUMBER OF CASES) = PROBABILITY OF DYING IF INFECTED BY THE VIRUS

Glad I could help.

Thus: