Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

Sorry, but I can't sort out your reference.

 

Putin replaces commander of Russia's war in Ukraine after just three months

Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Gen. Valery Gerasimov to take over as commander of the Kremlin’s forces in Ukraine, a move that comes as Kyiv warns Moscow is planning a major new offensive and just three months after Sergei Surovikin became the first person to be handed sole charge of the campaign.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...Stv009KPABS7eEWYLIYFfYyUaQqhZ1uu5P+UHKu0+AQAA

 

It was just the article refering to Iran and the fact that the White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Iran could be complicit in war crimes - the language is crap they either are or they aren't so either come and say they are or stay schtum. My view is they are. They know exactly what these things are being used for and have guys there in Russia advising on their use...

 

Ah. Perhaps useful to think of the comment as a warning shot.

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2023

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways

• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take over as theater commander as part of a major reshuffle of the Russian command structure for the war in Ukraine.
• Gerasimov’s appointment is likely intended to support an intended decisive Russian military effort in 2023, likely in the form of resumed Russian offensive operations.
• The elevation of Gerasimov and the Russian MoD over Surovikin, a favorite of Prigozhin and the siloviki faction, is additionally highly likely to have been in part a political decision to reassert the primacy of the Russian MoD in an internal Russian power struggle.
• Gerasimov will likely preside over a disorganized command structure plagued by endemic, persistent, and self-reinforcing failures that he largely set into motion in his initial role before the invasion of Ukraine.
• The Russian defense industrial base’s inability to address munitions shortages will likely hinder the ability of Russian forces to sustain offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that a renewed Russian offensive operation from Belarus remains highly unlikely.
• Russian forces have not yet fully captured Soledar despite recent Russian advances, and the possible capture of Soledar is unlikely to enable Russian forces to capture Bakhmut.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly issued secret and preemptive pardons to Russian convicts fighting with the Wagner Group in Ukraine, potentially further empowering Wagner to operate with impunity in the theater.
• Russian forces continued limited counterattacks near Svatove as Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna and struck rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian claims about Wagner Group and conventional Russian military formations’ operations in the Soledar area likely reflect competing claims over the responsibility for the most recent notable Russian tactical advances in Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast frontline.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are withdrawing key assets and restructuring logistics networks in southern Ukraine due to Ukrainian strikes.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced a plan to improve the Russian defense industrial base. . . .

Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations around Kreminna on January 11. A Russian source published footage on January 11 purporting to show Russian forces fighting against a Ukrainian assault in the vicinity of Kreminna.[32] A BARS-13 (Russian Combat Reserve) commander claimed that Ukrainian forces have probed Russian defenses in the Kreminna area for the past month, but that Russian artillery units have prevented larger Ukrainian formations from conducting counteroffensive operations in the area.[33] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces have begun to deploy more experienced military personnel, rather than more mobilized personnel, to fight in the Kreminna area due to fears that Russian forces may lose the settlement.[34] Geolocated Russian drone footage posted on January 11 shows Ukrainian forces in forests closer to Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna).[35] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups near Kuzmyne (2km southwest of Kreminna) and Hryhorivka (11km south of Kreminna).[36] The BARS-13 commander claimed that Ukrainian forces are particularly active near Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna) and plan to cut off Kreminna by surrounding it from the south, although ISW does not make assessments about specific Ukrainian operations.[37]

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian rear areas in Luhansk Oblast on January 11. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck Russian rear areas near Chornukhyne (65km northeast of Donetsk City) and Zolote (43km southeast of Kreminna) in Luhansk Oblast with HIMARS rockets.[38] . . . .

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are withdrawing key assets and restructuring logistics networks in southern Ukraine due to Ukrainian strikes. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Natalia Humenyuk stated on January 11 that Russian forces withdrew Shahed-136 drone launch points from occupied Kherson Oblast to Crimea and Krasnodar Krai and suggested Ukrainian forces have struck Russian drone training centers in southern Ukraine.[53] Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov stated that Russian forces previously intended to establish Melitopol as a logistics hub to move forces and equipment to the front lines, likely to compensate for the diminished capacity of the Kerch Strait Bridge, but instead now use the city as a center for destroyed equipment and personnel casualties.[54] Fedorov stated that Russian forces are using local social infrastructure as makeshift morgues and hospitals across Zaporizhia Oblast and transported over 200 dead from Tokmak to Russia, and full rail cars of destroyed equipment from Melitopol to Crimea, suggesting that existing infrastructure is not sufficient for Russian forces to process casualties and damaged equipment.[55] Fedorov stated that Russian forces in rear Mykhailivka are terrified that they "will be sent to be slaughtered" in Vasylivka.[56] . . . .

 

...I can imagine that Iran will give due consideration to his comments.....as they dispatch the next batch of missiles and drones for the killing and destruction of civilians and civilian infrastructure. What was it, a bunch of Flanker Es they wanted for them?

Makes you wonder why people can't just come call them for what they are....a bunch of murdering bastards whose time on this earth needs curtailing....anyway I'm not that much for diplomatic nicities

 

You got it truth is painful for the guilty.

 

well who'da thought it....

poor wee Emmanuel after all he's (not) done for Ukraine....mind you I don't think the Froggies rate him much either so maybe there's a message there for him..?

oh yeah...linky thing

 

....so General Doom has been demoted? But they just shoved in Surovikin as commander of Russian forces in Ukraine a couple of months ago...?
As it says there's a real bun fight going on in the Kremlin with the hardliners (Team Prigozhin) losing ground?? They'd better watch out for open windows....

...so what's changed....

 

Russia Changes Commander of Forces in Ukraine. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu appointed Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov as the new commander for Russian forces in Ukraine on Wednesday. The ministry said the leadership reshuffle is meant to boost effectiveness of Russian military operations in Ukraine, though analysts say the change is unlikely to make significant impacts on the battlefield and may have been done to reassert the defense ministry’s authority. Reuters

 

Ukraine Holds War Games Near Belarus. Ukraine held military drills in three secret locations in northwestern Ukraine near the Belarusian border. The exercises aimed to test combat readiness amid rising concerns that Russia will launch an assault from Belarus to open a new northern front in Ukraine. Analysts say the move remains possible as Russia slowly builds up a joint regional Belarusian-Russian military force, though it is much smaller than Russia’s initial invading force in the region last February. Reuters

 

Zelenskiy Urges Concrete Steps for Ukraine to Join NATO. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Wednesday that NATO should not just promise “open doors” for Ukraine and must offer “powerful steps” for Kyiv to join the military alliance. NATO has said its open-door policy applies to Ukraine, but has not made concrete moves to fast track Ukraine’s accession, which would likely infuriate Russia. Zelenskiy suggested Ukraine will be looking for progress on this matter at a NATO summit in Lithuania in July. His comments came in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv after talks with his counterparts from Lithuania and Poland. Reuters The Guardian

 

Ukraine, Russia Agree to New Prisoner Swap. Russian Human Rights Commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova met her Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Lubinets in Turkey, where they agreed to have their countries exchange an additional 40 prisoners of war each. The planned swap will be the latest in a series of regular prisoner exchanges. The two sides also reportedly talked about the treatment of POWs, humanitarian corridors and the need for a ceasefire. Reuters

 

Wagner Group Allegedly Finds Body of Missing Briton in Ukraine. Russia’s Wagner Group said Wednesday that its forces found the body of one of two British voluntary aid workers who reportedly went missing in Ukraine. The group did not mention where they found the dead man but say they found British documents on his body. Ukrainian police said Monday that they have been looking for the aid workers. Reuters

 

Link - Moscow Times

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12, 2023

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways

• Russian forces have likely captured Soledar on January 11, but this small-scale victory is unlikely to presage an imminent encirclement of Bakhmut.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin likely seeks scapegoats for the Russian defense industry base’s struggle to address equipment and technological challenges, and retains unrealistic expectations of Russian capacity to rapidly replace losses.
• Ukrainian intelligence confirmed that senior Russian military leadership is preparing for significant military reforms in the coming year, though ISW continues to assess Russia will struggle to quickly—if at all—implement planned reforms.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City.
• Russian forces continued defensive operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities may be preparing for the mass deportation of Ukrainian citizens from occupied territories to the Russian Federation.
• Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrei Kartapolov announced that Russian military recruitment offices may increase the age of eligibility for conscription as early as this spring’s conscription cycle.
• Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces, Oleg Salyukov (who was appointed as one of Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov’s three “deputies” as theater commander in Ukraine), arrived in Belarus to take control of combat coordination exercises for the joint Russian-Belarusian Regional Grouping of Forces (RGV). . . .

Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line on January 12. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Stelmakhivka (16km west of Svatove).[19] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups within 44km northwest of Svatove near Kyslivka, Vilshana, Tabaivka, Krokhmalne, and Pershotravneve in Kharkiv Oblast.[20] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Kreminna, which may indicate that Ukrainian forces have made further advances towards the settlement.[21] The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported that heavy fighting continued on the approaches to Kreminna over the last two days and that Russian forces have transferred elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) to the vulnerable Kreminna sector of the front line.[22] The UK MoD suggested that Russian commanders are attempting to deploy VDV units in their doctrinal role as an elite rapid reaction force, instead of the past Russian practice in Kherson Oblast of deploying these formations as long-term, ground-holding forces.[23] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Ukrainian forces improved their tactical positions near Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna) and are preventing Russian forces from attacking the settlement.[24] . . .

Russian soldiers continue to complain about poor living conditions and mistreatment on the front. A video published on January 11 shows Russian troops from the 10th company of the 3rd battalion of the 392nd Motorized Rifle Regiment appealing to military leadership concerning their unlivable conditions and “lawlessness” at the front.[50] The video shows troops trying to break through the ice in frozen trenches, admitting to stealing funds to supply themselves with equipment, and complaining that they have been “living like this for 11 months.”[51] . . .

 

Ukraine Says Forces Holding Out in Soledar. Ukraine says that its forces continue to battle for the Soledar, despite the Russian defense ministry’s claims that its forces are in full control of the eastern Ukrainian town. Despite the ministry’s assurances, a Russian-installed official in the eastern Donetsk region confirmed there are remaining pockets of Ukrainian resistance in Soledar. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy echoed this in his nightly video address, saying at least two Ukrainian units are still fighting in the town and “inflicting significant losses” on Russian forces. New York Times Reuters
The Hill

 

....scooby doo meets mad max.....

 

World
The Daily Beast
Russia Sets Ultimatum to Formally Pull a Third Country Into Putin’s War

 

They replaced dr evil?!

 

WATCH: Ukraine forces ambush Russian Wagner unit with lethal crossfire

 

Yes.... with dr. "evil" version 2.0

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 13, 2023
Key Takeaways

• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized Soledar on the evening of January 12.
• The MoD’s initial announcement (which did not mention the Wagner Group) sparked a significant backlash within the Russian information space, forcing the MoD to issue a second announcement crediting Wagner.
• Prigozhin likely seeks to use the victory in Soledar as a bargaining tool to elevate his authority in Russia.
• Putin may be taking measures to cultivate a cadre of milbloggers loyal to Putin and the Russian MoD to undermine Prigozhin’s effort to elevate himself.
• High-ranking Ukrainian officials continue to forecast an intensification of Ukrainian and Russian operations in the spring of 2023 and that a Russian offensive from Belarus remains unlikely.
• Russian officials’ responses to Russians who have fled abroad risks dividing the Kremlin and the ultra-nationalist pro-war community even further.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly ordered Russian occupation officials to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under medical relocation schemes.
• Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line while Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Soledar, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka.
• Ukrainian Intelligence reported that Russian forces seek to raise personnel numbers to two million by an unspecified date.
• Ukrainian partisan attacks continue to divert Russian resources away from the frontline to rear areas in occupied territories. . . .

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2023

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways


Russian forces launched two waves of missile strikes targeting Ukraine's critical infrastructure on January 14.

• • The Kremlin continues to falsely claim Ukraine poses an existential threat to Russia to reject Ukrainian offers of a peace summit and retain Putin’s original maximalist goals.
  • The Kremlin continues to use long-standing false narratives that the Ukrainian government is oppressing religious liberties as moral justification for its refusal to negotiate with Ukraine and likely in the hopes of turning international public opinion against Ukraine.
  • Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued to leverage the Wagner Group’s role in capturing Soledar to elevate his political stature and indirectly criticize the conventional Russian military.
  • Russian forces continued limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations around Soledar as well as in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas. Ukrainian forces are highly unlikely to still hold positions within the settlement of Soledar itself.
  • Russian forces continued defensive operations and reinforced frontlines positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
  • Western officials are increasingly joining Ukrainian authorities in warning that Russia is preparing for an imminent second wave of mobilization.
  • Russian occupation officials in Kherson continued measures to forcibly relocate residents to Russia.
  • Ukrainian partisan attacks continue to disrupt Russian rear security efforts. . . . .
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to strike Russian positions in Luhansk Oblast on January 14. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in Rubizhne (8km west of Kreminna) and Russian rear areas in Tarasivka (30km northeast of Svatove).[25] . . .
  • Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian rear areas. Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian deployment point in Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast, during the night of January 13 and January 14.[51] Fedorov also reported that two loud explosions of unspecified origin occurred in occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, on January 14.[52] Fedorov stated that preliminary information indicates that the explosions damaged a Russian military base situated on the premises of a factory.[53] No actors have claimed responsibility for the attack at this time. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation administration deputy Vladimir Rogov claimed on January 14 that Russian air defenses intercepted a Ukrainian missile in the vicinity of Melitopol.[54] . . .

 

Victory claims over small Ukrainian town expose rift among Russian forces