Russian forces pulling out of Kharkiv.

So is Mafialand....Dwarfstan figured it would be all over in 72 hrs or less.....

 

Eye for an eye....why should Mafialand be left unscathed.

 

The problem becomes who (or what) does China value more? Its long term relationship with Russia or its immediate relationship with the West. In terms of trade volumes in the short to medium term China's trade with Russia is only a small % of total trade volumes with western nations (albeit trade with Russia has surged since the implementation of Western sanctions - which is to be expected BTW, after all who else does Russia have left to trade with?). And there are two related issues at play.

Firstly China's COVID lock down restrictions are hammering it's economic growth and domestic demand. Secondly even before COVID China was is and by all accounts will be extremely dependent on foreign markets as the driver of future prosperity. Try as it might domestic consumption is not high enough to replace export markets as it's main source of jobs and tax revenue. And the current lock downs have just made this situation even worse. So for the moment it desperately needs to maintain trade ties with Western markets.

Then there is the fact that yes, while it may well be in China's interest to have a 'strong Russia' to help counter balance Western economic, diplomatic and military power there are also potential benefits/opportunities for it in having a weakened and dependent Russia at it's beck and call. So there are arguments in favor of outcomes. But that aside, the thing is if you step back a little its easy see this as a short term problem, one that will potentially resolve itself over the course of the next few months or years even if simmering tensions between Ukraine and Russia remain in place for decades afterwards. Whereas China's rise to power is an ongoing, long term project. And Xi has to balance the importance of those long term plans against China' current economic problems and his relationship with Russia, or to be more precise with Putin who, lets face it at best only has a few more years in power anyway.

So if you were in his shoes which side would you choose? Which doesn't mean China still can't provide financial aid or other assistance BTW if it wants to, just that it has to think very carefully about overtly providing military assistance. And that's doubly the case because China's armed forces have used Russia's armed forces as a template for its own military technology, organization and tactics up until quite recently. (And something tells me China's military planners may be re-visiting that decision very quickly and looking closely at the the lessons to be learned from this war even as I type.)

 

If nukes are used in Ukraine ....spillover could/will be catastrophic.....high populations, Geography,climate, Moscow will be erased....you don't think about that.

Just use Chornobyl for an example....still tons of effects.

 

M777 coupled with Excalibur rounds, and they can cover entire Kherson area from the suburbs of Mykolaiv. Those are high precision rounds that give Ukrainians the ability to destroy all russian armor without even entering the city. Last I’ve heard Ukrainian troops are just 10 miles away from Kherson.

 

I am not sure the support is real. The numbers that are typically published by official agencies can not be trusted, same like for Lukashenko support.

 

The thing is that if Moscow is erased, Washington will be erased as well. There will be no winners then. So West will do nothing.

 

The last paragraph here is true....China will certainly re visit or toss out Russias military organizations and tactics quickly. It's a template for disaster.

 

Luka is as popular as herpes....if Dwarfstan turned his back on Luka at sundown....by sunrise Luka would probably be dangling from a lamppost somewhere.

And I'm sure Luka is 110% aware of that.

 

That is true.

 

Europe won't have its populations decimated....for some nutcase Dwarf....chances are he'll be popped off by one of his inner circle clowns soon enough....

 

When Ukrainians completely push Russians out, some casualties among Russian civilians are going to be unavoidable. If Ukrainians want to prevent Russians from trying to build up force again, or if they want to prevent Russians from shelling Kharkiv then Belgorod will have to be hit to destroy their military infrastructure. If Ukraine retakes Mariupol then they’ll need to do the same with Russian Taganrog. Crimean bridge will almost certainly be destroyed at some point. Gomel in Belarus might see some action too.
Otherwise cross border shelling for both sides will be an everyday thing.

 

I would only welcome if Putin is gone.

 

Well, shelling Kharkiv can be done not necessarily from Belgorod, but from Kursk or Tula, for example.

 

There's a huge big difference between training a one million strong army and equipping it properly. Lets be quite clear Ukraine may be able to provide basic infantry training, uniforms and firearms etc for its volunteer reserves but it cannot equip them all with the vehicles, heavy weapons, electronic systems and other essential equipment needed for modern mechanized warfare. These reserves are vital for replacing losses but the relatively small amount of modern equipment being funneled to Ukraine by the West and domestic production will NOT give it the equivalent of modern western Army larger than that of the US!

And the thing is of course that Russia faces the exactly the same dilemma. It can't train and equip it's available reserves to the same standard either. So the scenario your describing (were the war to continue long enough) is more or less a return to mass infantry battles. Neither side could hope to sustain that kind of war indefinitely.

As I said, IMO it is very much in Russia's interest to claim a 'win' and negotiate a way out asap. That 'win' will probably require Ukraine to concede some territory (not much) to Russia. And if Ukraine doesn't want to? Well NATO has some say in the matter. The thing is Russia has already 'lost' this war in terms what it hoped to achieve going in for all the reasons I outlined previously. Providing it manages to handle the post war rebuilding of it's economy with a minimum of corruption an social upheaval Ukraine will emerge into the post war world richer and stronger than it was before the war started. The opposite is true for Russia. The only reward for its efforts (apart from casualties) will be small amount of impoverished, depopulated, bombed out territory that it won't even be able to afford to rebuild.

 

That'll push the Dwarfstan back to square 1 pre invasion....hopefully LDPR may be liberated....but those residents have undergone some serious brainwashing the last 8 yrs.....might be tough.

 

Before the start of the war, Ukraine already sat on like 900,000 reserves with combat experience in Donbas from last 8 years. And the defense minister specifically said they are “building a capacity to support” the 1 million army. Capacity includes logistics. Last month they stated that their headcount already reached 450,000. They doubled it from the beginning of the war, when they had about 200,000 heads.
With Lend Lease and financial support from the west, I don’t see why they can’t expand from 450k to 1m in the next 2 months. It looks like that’s what everyone is aiming for already.

 

After forced conscription, I’ve heard those separatist regions don’t have that many males of fighting age left in there. Those regions primarily sit on children, women and old men. I think if Ukraine takes those regions last, they’ll just be able to walk in there without seeing much resistance.

 

I see what you're saying....

When you say "not much" territory to cede.....that's open to interpretation when dealing with Russians....don't forget when one gives an inch with them ,they try to take miles.....that's how their mind works.

 

True, but in this case they already tried to take a 'mile' and failed. So they can either take their 'inch' or get nothing. (Finland probably serves as a good example of Russia having to settle for more than the its then 'great leader' wanted.)

And if they do want to come back for round two? Fine, it will take them years to rebuild what they've lost so far. Ukraine can rebuilt/re-equip more quickly than Russia can so long as it has Western backing.

 

Yep.
If Russians were smart, they’d cut their losses and leave (at least to pre-February positions). The problem is - their house of cards that was built on lies won’t be able to accommodate this option.

 

I've heard similar....and some reports of LDPR residents being treated as "second class" when they reached out for assistance in the RF proper.....sounds like the Russkis aren't exactly "opening arms" to their so called compatriots from occupied territory?

 

I don’t totally trust the numbers either. Much of his support is also because he controls almost all of the media. But even with all those things considered, he’s still probably as popular or even more popular with his people than any American politician. Our Country is so split and polarized, we probably look pretty foolish preaching our way of life to other Countries,

 

Yes...Agreed...but the Russkis are "bricks"....(meaning thick primitive skulls)....it takes much hammering into that brick to get the point across.

The last paragraph...also,agree....as long as Western backing.

 

Zelenskyy and whoever eventually replaces him would have to be complete idiots to screw up that relationship, especially when the bear is going to keep prowling the other side of the fence for many years to come even if Putin does go soon. For that matter Ukraine is too valuable an edition to Western Europe, especially after it rebuilds for the US and/or EU to willingly damage the relationship either.