Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Undoubtedly. Perhaps people spend a lot more time outdoors, also.

So much of European and American life is lived indoors, and this is proving to be a huge factor in the spread of COVID. Even down to the things we might not immediately factor in .. for example schools. EG, in Europe and America, schools are indoors .. whereas here in the East they're less likely to be - except in the coldest parts of Northern Asia. What I mean by 'not indoors' is that they are single or two level rows of classrooms connected by outdoor walkways and outdoor stairs. No corridors or indoor spaces except classrooms and bathrooms (and even the bathrooms are outdoors .. as in separate from classrooms, so kids have to walk across yards/fields etc to access them). Even our school cafeterias are outdoors, though some will have a simple overhead cover. All of this contributes to the suppression of a virus which dislikes sunlight and fresh air.

 

The biggest issue with the shut-in strategy, was that it's a strategy that demands 100% compliance. if you have some people who are staying at home, but others who are going out(and living with other people), that's how the virus can affect people who otherwise were staying indoors. Then added to that, the necessity for foods, etc(essential services) meant that of course we were exposing people to the virus(meat packers, restaurant workers, etc.) Who by delivery, would also expose those home stayers again to the virus.

It of course, was a noble goal to limit deaths and cases(and to the extent compared to the Imperial College, we've succeeded) but even with a 50-60% compliance, the spread still took place. To me, from a theoretical and intellectual standpoint I really do always come back to a few key points.

1)COVID exists and is going to persist in our system for the foreseeable future and that 2)Mitigation is thereby a lost cause. It's not like people are going out all smelly and stuff(when it comes to 'personal hygiene/health'. These viruses are like a nanoparticle, too small to even see.

 

Not really.

 

I have to differ there. The shut-in strategy is fantastically effective, but it's like a toaster you didn't plug in. It won't work unless you use it properly. The chances of the virus getting into our homes when protocols are followed, are close to zero. If every member of the household is staying home, and all deliveries are decontaminated prior to them coming into the house (that means EVERYTHING - including groceries, take-out, and mail), it has no way to get in. If anyone from the home is going out, they need to be strict with decontaminating themselves entirely before entering the home (clothes, shoes, wallets, belts, phones, etc), and they should remain somewhat isolated from everyone else. No shared bedrooms, no using kitchen/bathroom/living room when others are in those rooms, and decontaminating shared rooms after every use, etc etc.

It can be done. I have friends who picked it up overseas - they were quarantined in their 1200sqf house with their four kids for six weeks, and none of the kids caught it. Another friend picked it up at the supermarket, lives in a 800sqf house with her husband and daughter, and didn't infect either of them. So yeah, it can be done. There really isn't a sound argument for not doing it, in a place with so much community transmission. Think how many people in NYC didn't bother to do any of that stuff, and ended up killing a family member via their own failure to take precautions.

 

Think about what you said: Decontaminating everything, how does one go about that? Bleach every item in the house? Or spraying it down? We have our own washer/dryer in the house, so I presume washing our own clothes with the usual should be effective. We have ate breakfast/dinner together, I don't think that such family times put us at risk.

And if it does, smh. I'd rather die happy then sad and alone.

 

A lot of poor people living in close quarters would be my guess.

People with poor health living in crowded conditions. Following protocols is almost impossible.

 

The guy almost lost his mind when Twitter fact checked him. He's turned Twitter in a news feed for his followers.

 

Some California schools have covered walkways outside of classrooms. Outside lunch areas.

 

A DYSFUNCTIONAL DEMOCRACY

Not to worry. It will all come together around September when, finally, the "election campaign" gets started.

We'll see if the Yanks have enough courage to call Donald Dork for the dork that he is ...

The history of America's Great Recession (2008/2012):
*Historically, the Great Recession happened because in the 2008 by-election, we-the-sheeple voted to shift the dominant HofR party-leadership from Democrat to Republican. Americans were upset that Obama could not turn around quickly enough the damage done to employment in the US.
*Whereupon the Replicants stonewalled all further Stimulus Spending. They could not give-a-damn about high-unemployment that was raging in the country. What they wanted most was to defeat Obama in his bid for a second term!
*But that didn't work-out as they wanted. They continued to stonewall any further Stimulus Spending the consequence of which was to cause the very low historical employment-rate shown in this BLS infographic here.
*On that chart note that E-to-p Ratio remained at around 58.6% from December 2009 to January 2013. Four long years during which it remained flat at its lowest recently historical rate (of around 58.7%)!
*Finally, all by itself (with no help whatsoever from government spending) the E-to-P ratio began to improve during Obama's last two years in office.
*So then, Hillary won the popular-vote but lost the election. And Donald Dork now sits in the Offal Office.

That's the sort of economic history only a very mixed-up and dysfunctional democracy could make ...

 

The link above did not work. Mea culpa!

So here it is again ...

PS: I underscore the importance of the E-to-p Ratio ("Employment-to-population"), which is key in any economic discussion. After all, if you are employed, you eat. And if you eat, maybe you indulge in an Internet Debate Forum ... ?

 

It is just as deadly pretty much everywhere with the only differences being concentration and information. The virus will spread faster in high density areas than now ones and there are better information sources in those denser areas.

 

There are definitely lessons to be learned from this and perhaps one of the most important will be that the arrogance of ignorance can kill people. America needs to move away from ignorance and embrace STEM education if it wants to regain any semblance of what it once was.

It is the highly educated and trained who are saving our butts right now and we can no longer afford to denigrate education.

 

How is STEM education saving us? That's mostly in the technological field isn't it?(Science, mathematics, technology and engineering apparently.) Those are crucial jobs and all, but I don't understand how they're saving our butts.

 

FL is recording Covid deaths as Pneumonia. If you added back the spike in pneumonia cases you might see a different picture.

 

Indeed, he did seem to be having a bad day about it. 103,000 dead Americans, but to him it was more important to put out a presidential order that has absolutely no teeth whatsover. This is what autocrats with large fascist veins running through them do.

It's.... sad.

 

Indeed, it looks very much as if FL is brazenly lying about the death toll and I would lay good money on the table, were we to exhume all of those sudden pneumonia cases who were quietly logged into the books as such, pretty much every one of those corpses would test positive for the antibody test. Ohio has proven that you can test post-mortum.

 

Science includes medicine and scientists are researching this virus and trying to develop vaccines.

Math is telling us how quickly it spreads and how deadly it is.

Technology is making it easier to track the spread of the disease and provide information to more people about how to prevent becoming infected.

Engineering is what will produce the vaccine if it can be discovered. It is also responsible for the PPE's and ventilators and the rest of the medical equipment.

 

There is going to be a reckoning at some point in the future and those that tried to hide the facts need to be held accountable for the needless deaths their malfeasance will have caused.

 

So, I'll do the major analyses later (my business day is very weirdly structured today), but the long and short of yesterday, 2020-05-028 was that the world, with a record-breaking +116,304 new cases, blew past both the 5.8 AND the 5.9 mllion mark in confirmed C19 cases in the same day. This has never happened before. The number of daily deaths worldwide paralleled the Thursday before very closely. When you have such a massive total of new cases, it's no wonder then that a record-breaking 19 nations recorded at least +1,000 new cases or more, and Canada, with +994, was just under the 1,000 line.

On April 28th, 2020, in the America analyses, I started and then continued an extrapolation of the number of deaths by EOD on May 31st, 2020, which will now be in 2 days. I extrapolated that with an average of "only" +1,400 deaths per day in the USA, we would be at 103,000 deaths by the end of May. We reached 103,000 deaths in the USA on 2020-028-2020, 3 days ahead of the extrapolation. Later, in the extrapolation, I extended that total figure to a likely 106,000-107,000 deaths. It now look like we will come close to 106,000 before the 6th month of this year even begins.

In the Americas, Brasil (+24,151) again lead the USA (+22,658 ) in the number of daily new C19 cases, but the USA lead with daily C19 deaths, with +1,223 to Brazil's +1,027. And Mexico reported +463 new deaths, so it was once again a bad day for the Americas, only the deaths are more evenly spread between these three nations instead of happening mostly in the USA.

Soon, I will be doing an extrapolation for the world - using very simple, back-of-the-envelope math.

 

STEM THIS

Look, this is a Debate Forum - which means implicity that IF you are using a phrase that is not common you should link its definition.

As I do (for you) here: What is STEM Education? - excerpt:

Yes, well, education is a "fun thing", isn't it? And, yes, focussing on a particular set of subjects could help some kids to get off in the right direction. I nonetheless will NOT dismiss the fact that the summum of higher-education is a Post-secondary Degree that is free, gratis and for nothing. Just like a secondary-school degree!!!!

And it should be available to our Entire Population in order to build real, solid intelligence across-the-board (and "bored"!). Which, as a keystone educational factor throughout the US, is going to take a long, long time.

And I add the fact that a Tertiary-level degree in the average state-schooling public university in the US today costs $14K a year. I suggest that this KEEPS OUT the kids that need it most - that is, from those families below the Poverty Threshold (where the average annual income is $25K per year)!

MY POINT?

We should "junk" the myriad number of government programs to assist in the education of the poorer elements in our society. We need JUST ONE TERTIARY LEVEL NATIONAL PUBLIC EDUCATION that is run by the state but also designed/offered along a common format throughout the US and funded by the Federal Budget.

Which is yet another dark-pit. Read about "Discretionary Spending" here, with this quote:

When will we ever get this nation OUT OF THE DEFENSE BUSINESS given that there is no war going on? Defense should not be a national spending priority. And National Postsecondary Education should have that honor ...

 

From here (and only for New York City) the "deadly consequences" age-wise (from here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)

Age Group ---- percent of total deaths:
65 - 74 years old - 24.6%
75+ years old ----- 47.7%
------------------------ 92.3%

 

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/10/older-population-in-rural-america.html

IOW's the age risk is actually higher in rural areas than urban ones because there are more seniors in those communities. How much this is mitigated by being in rural areas is still TBD but from what I have read about rural areas in GA and AL when they do become infected the medical facilities are quickly maxed out.

 

Did you mean 73% or 93%- I’m not very numerate so I might be missing something.

 

Good catch!

The actual total is 72.3.

 

Contamination is a direct consequence of population density when it comes to Covid-19. (Or, for that matter, even the common cold.)

In rural populations, the risk of older generations is much reduced. They don't "mix" as much as the younger-generation who are (it appears) inherently resilient to Covid-19. In fact, I'll bet that if one dissected the Covid-deaths of rural-communities that are close-by medium-size towns have a higher death-rate.

It is in the more dense population of city and near-city communities - as exist in the north eastern states where most of the contaminations seem to have occurred - that one must be very; very careful in public should one wish NOT TO USE A MASK.

In rural communities here in France, I have looked at the numbers. In the wilderness of France and out of a population of 500,000 farmers in one land-sizeable state there were actually only three Covid-origin deaths!

Covid-death - as with the common cold - is a direct-function statistically first-and-foremost of population density.

Methinks ....