Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

So, sticking with my local PA(and hopping in with math as best I can). Last night, total tests in Philadelphia were at 86,443. Today, at least as far as worldometer's concerned, the test numbers have not increased but there's an increase in new cases(+237). The reason I'm not able to deduce number of positives versus tests, is that I would need the day before overall test numbers(and I didn't check the site.)

The overall point of discovery here for me, is that while new tests didn't occur in 24 hours, new cases happened. This means that test results are being read back(to patients) at least a day later, or several hours later. Or at minimum, this is the time lag that's being recorded, and the patient already knows.

But for our purposes(and I assume similarly for other States) this is a problem in terms of analyzing case growth rate. Are we seeing growth of cases from patients newly tested, or similarly to rape kits, are we looking at backlogs and confirming 'old cases' that should have been confirmed earlier but only now are being added to the data base?

 

The death toll in the USA has now gone over 102,000, +1,437 deaths from today alone:

 

I don't give Trump much thought, one way or the other. I do think, however, that he wants more than anything for the Coronavirus to quit dominating the news.

I remember back in 1979 when the news show that became "Nightline" began, calling itself "America Held Hostage Day _ _ _". That program helped seal Jimmy Carter's loss in 1980.

Trump is likely seeing deja vu all over again.

 

Perhaps if he handled the pandemic properly, instead of letting it race through the nation at 20,000 a day, he'd have had that wish granted.

 

Nuh uh, I was told that Trump could cure cancer and covid today and people would bitch and moan about his inability to cure them yesterday. And that's because they still won't accept that Trump does need to pee OR poo!

 

From here: US death toll from coronavirus surges past 100,000 people

Excerpt:

WORTH WATCHING:

An interesting video analysis of how and how not to read the charts:

 

So an update. The new cases are the same(237), but they updated the test count at 88,149(for Philadelphia county alone)

That's 1,706 tests administered on the day, to 237 new cases. That's a 14% positive rate on the day, and a 86% negative.

Of course, we would prefer for there to be 0 new cases and therefore a 0% positive rate, but the rate of infection for this virus seems to be very steadily at 10-14%.

 

Another set of chats for today.

The US seems to have stalled out at around 6% positives. That is about 25% of what it was at it's peak when we were having 2000 deaths a day. So if we extrapolate it would mean we could stall at 500 dead a day. Not to bad you say? 180.000 a year.
The next big test comes when we see if we can track that many cases or if it's going to make another run.
The two states I have been tracking. A lot of tests today in Georgia after their spike.


Florida seem level.

 

You can use this site to calculate percent positives at the state level.
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/pennsylvania#historical

It looks like about 7%.

 

Should be NASA, though.
Beware of individuals enabled by a sick economic system to become richer than entire nations, while entrenched poverty is a continuing and increasing blight on the economy.

 

I'll put out the daily reports for 2020-05-027 later today, but for the first time, Brazil exceeded the USA in the number of daily new C19 cases, and both shot up well over the +1,000 mark in daily deaths:



Also, Mexico had a very bad day yesterday, with +501 deaths.

 

Not having a big city would explain a lot. The virus spreads more quickly and easily in a big city and there are more people who subsequently flee into the rural areas and infect them.

Secondly there is evidence that GA is suppressing the death toll so that probably accounts for that difference.

https://www.ajc.com/news/undercount...fects-georgia-unknown/Cg1na060vIiOH6VM3ecztO/

 

Going to pass your 103k extrapolation before the end of the month now.

 

Sure looks like it. It's really sad that it's come this far. So many unnecessary deaths. So much tragedy, so much pain, so much grief, but hey, Trump gets to go golf again.

 

I'm politically indifferent at this stage, The DNC chose a 77 year old man with mental health difficulties who openly professed to being a one term lame duck.(Yay), and given other political contingencies, it's clear that there isn't a difference in turds in American politics.

I would love to have someone like chancellor Merkel in American politics.

 

I found an interactive chart on this website that essentially provides a visual look at what you have been tracking and your data has been showing. I changed the selection of countries and areas to reflect what you are focusing on.

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid



As you can see the world curve has flattened and is now trending slightly downwards.

South Korea and Australia are both plateaued. Germany still has a slight upwards trend.

Brazil seems to be trending slightly downwards but with the growing cases that might change.

Mexico is spiking up while Russia seems to be an anomaly given the number of cases versus reported deaths.

The US is essentially plateauing with a very slight downward trend potentially emerging but too soon to tell.

I mentioned in an earlier post that India and Africa comprise 34% of the total world population so I included them and South Africa because I was using that as the primary data source to base my estimates upon. While the total reporting for India and Africa would indicate a declining trend the data from South Africa indicates that the death rate is increasing once testing is in place.

Given the above it would appear that some places have the virus under control while others have now become hotspots and that there is a serious lack of data as to what is happening to at least a third and perhaps as much as half of the rest of the world's population.

We are probably only now reaching the stage where the virus has reached almost every corner of the planet but not every person has been infected. Given that precautions and prevention measures are not being effectively implemented and testing is woefully inadequate all I can assume at this stage is that when the final death toll is tallied it is going to be closer to that of the 1918/19 Pandemic that any of the others.

Yes, that means tens of millions dying worldwide. I fervently hope that we find an effective vaccine and/or cure before that comes to pass.

 

HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before.

During the run of the day on 2020-05-027, there was one intermittent analysis of size:
USA EOD report for 2020-05-026, posted 2020-05-027, 14:25 GMT +2, #9491.

NOTE: as of 2020-02-027, I only provide one set of screenshots from WORLDOMETER, for the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, in descending order. In order to confirm my quick analysis or to sort the date as you wish, use the following links to work the table on your own:

- the WORLDOMETER website for today, or
- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future.

In order to to that, search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table.

​

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Wednesday, 2020-05-027 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

*****5,784,603*****
+106,457 cases today over yesterday.
There are 111 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.
There are now 356,937 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
1,535 Americans, 1,148 Brazilians & 501 Mexicans died from COVID-19 on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLASHBACK DAY (to 2020-02-027)
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Of course, you can see the percentages and growth rates for yourselves. I screenshotted the table back to 2020-04-026 to that we all could see five weekly average values (the two rightmost columns at the table)going into the past and also note that in this time frame of a little more than one month, the world went past the 3-million, the 4-million and the 5-million mark and is now only 215,000 C19 cases away from the 6-million mark, which will surely be reached within the next three days (2020-05-028 through 2020-05-030). So, although the growth rate is small, the growth is steady and logistical. More about this at the end of the report.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +1,000 C19 cases and above):​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 111 nations in the "thousand club, with Zambia having crossed over the 1,000 line on 2020-05-027. Of those 111, 49 are in the "10,000 club. Further, 12 of those 49 are at 100,000 or more. Brazil went over the 400,000-mark on 2020-05-027.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases, a change has happened: Brazil lead with the most new cases with the USA at rank 2. This is the first time in a long time that the USA did not report the most new daily C19 cases. Russia, India, Peru and Chile took rankings 3-6 in daily C19 cases.

63 countries had +100 or more new cases, closing in on 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 62. Of those 63, 16 countries had +1000 or more new cases; the day before, it was 14.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending, there are SIXTY-NINE nations with 100 total deaths or more. That is 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. Of those 69,TWENTY-SIX nations have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths, the USA (+1,535) led, then Brasil at rank 2 (+1,148 ) and Mexico at rank 3 (+501); a huge amount of the dying across the world on 2020-05-027 happened in the Americas.

9 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 8 the day before). 5 of those 9 countries are from the Americas.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 12 nations have administered more than 1 million tests apiece.

The USA has now performed 15.9 million tests, while Russia has performed 9.4 million tests. Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections, has performed only 872,000 tests. Just imagine how many more positives Brazil would now be showing were it to test on the scale of the USA or Russia.... and btw, Peru has performed more C19 tests than Brazil.

FLASHBACK DAY (to 2020-02-027)​

As you can read from the OP from way back on 2020-03-014 (USA) / 2020-03-015 (early in morning in Germany), my journey with the numbers actually began on 2020-02-027, where I began to note the C19 numbers on Twitter. Here was what I posted on that day:



Back then, I hadn't shown that much interest in the countries table, I didn't screenshot it on that day. So, I went back via the WAYBACK MACHINE and screenshotted that moment this morning:




On 2020-02-027, the entire world had a total of 82,411 cases and 2,808 deaths; in comparison, that worldwide case total is less than the current total for the US state of Massachusetts and the worldwide death total from back then is less than the current death total for the US state of Connecticut.

Now, three months later, our world is approaching 6 million confirmed C19 cases and has suffered upwards of 357,000 deaths. The exact ratio between now and then, in cases is, 70.2 : 1 (or SEVENTY-FOLD growth). And in deaths, the exact ratio is: 127.11 : 1 (or ONE-HUNDRED-TWENTY-SEVEN-FOLD growth).

On 2020-02-027, 50 nations/territories/conveyances had reported at least one infection. Right now, it's 213 such entities.
On 2020-02-027, the USA has 60 cases and 0 deaths. Now, exactly three months later, the USA has 1.75 MILLION cases and over 102,000 deaths.
On 2020-02-027, Brazil had 1 case and 0 deaths. Now, it has over 414,000 cases and is approaching 26,000 deaths.
On 2020-02-027, Russia had 2 cases and 0 deaths. Now, Russia has 371,000 cases and almost 4,000 dead.

You can see that the countries table from 2020-02-027 was not as extensive as what we get to read these days, but you can see that the "Diamond Princess", a cruise ship, with a little over 700 cases, was rank 3 on the listing, directly under China and S. Korea. Now, that same conveyance is rank 127. Food for thought.

Facit: on 2020-05-027 world came over the 5.7 million mark and finished the day 15,000 C19 cases under the 5.8 million mark. We just went over the 5 million mark 8 days ago and even as I am writing this analysis for 2020-05-027 I can tell you that we have already passed the 5.8 million mark today and will probably come extremely close to 5.9 million by the end of this day.

Now at +102,107 deaths, the USA has surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. John Hopkins University caught up with WORLDOMETER on 2020-05-027 and confirmed what WORLDOMETER already recorded on 2020-05-026: that my homeland went over the 100,000 death-mark. In the USA analysis, I had done a month long extrapolation, from 2020-04-028 until 2020-05-026; said extrapolation worked out exactly as predicted. At the USA analysis for 2020-05-026 (link at the top of this analysis), I started a new extrapolation....

The world-wide curve has most definitely flattened, which was the primary goal of mitigation. The very low growth rate in total cases is a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

And now the COVID-19 USA numbers for Wednesday, 2020-05-027 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Wednesday, 2020-05-027 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

*1,745,803*
+20,546 cases today over the day before.
102,107 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA.
1,535 Americans out of the total above died from COVID-19 on this day.
490,130 people have recovered, 1,153,566 are, however, still sick.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Note: as of now, in order to make this analysis more concise, I will only provide one set of screenshots from WORLDOMETER, for the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, in descending order. In order to confirm my quick analysis, please go directly to the WORLDOMETER website today or to the WAYBACK MACHINE after today. If you use the wayback machine after today, search for one day later than the date you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. This way, you have more control over what you want to see and when you want to see it.

I screenshotted the excel-table (above) to illustrate how far we have come in one month's time, from 2020-04-027 (where the USA went over the 1 million mark) to 2020-05-027 (where the USA is now at 1.75 million). Assuming an average of +19,000 newly confirmed C19 cases per day, then in 13 days, 14 at the maximum, the USA will go over the 2 million mark. Assuming an average of +20,000 cases instead of +19,000, then we will reach 2 million in 12-13 days instead of 13-14 days. So, by either the one or the other trajectory, between June 8-10, 2020, we will go over 2 million in the USA.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total confirmed cases, descending:
​

Total confirmed C-19 cases:

45 out of 50 states have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. VT (971) is next up. 30 of those 45 plus Veterans affairs (13,653) now have more than 10,000 cases, so actually, it's 31, and Veterans Affairs is really rank 29. Also, the number of infected military personnel is moving toward the 10,000 mark. At 9,412 and 9,016, respectively, both KS and DE will be crossing over the 10,000 line shortly.

The state of NY (currently: 374,672) alone had more COVID-19 cases than any other nation in the world except the USA itself, of which NY is of course a part, until 2020-05-025. On that day, Brazil changed the course of C19 history and Brazil (currently: 414,661) surpassed NY's numbers on that day. Further, Russia (currently: 370,680) is just behind NY and will surely pass it's total confirmed C19 case statistic today, 2020-05-028.

New daily cases:

4 states reported over +1,000 new cases on 2020-05-025. The day before, it was 5 states. Of those 4 states from 2020-05-027, CA lead (+1,779), then TX (+1,377), then IL (+1,111) and then, taking rank 4: NY (+1,050). Directly under the +1,000 mark was VA (+907). But actually it was 5 "states", because the Federal Prison System (which often does not report any stats) recorded +2,014 new C19 cases, ahead of the other 5.

These kind of numbers are more evidence that the hotspots are shifting from NY and NJ (which I didn't even list, but was at +803) to other places, above all, IL (Chicago), CA (LA, among othter) and TX (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, El Paso).

33 states reported more than +100 new cases; the day before, it was 35, plus DC.

2 states reported no new cases: CT and ND. CT reporting no new cases on 2020-05-027 is very unusual for an East Coast state that has suffered alot from C19. I suspect that the CT numbers for 2020-05-028 may be larger than we are used to seeing, maybe even two days worth of numbers. Wait and see.

​

New daily deaths:

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

5 states reported more than 100 daily deaths. The day before, it was 1. Those 5 states: IL (+160), NJ (+144), PA (+128 ), CA (+103) and NY (+102). Those 637 deaths represent 41.5% of all daily deaths (+1,535) in the USA on that day. Again, notice that NY was not near the top of the list. And slowly but surely, more and more cases and deaths are coming from CA.

43 of 50 states reported at least one death. The day before, it was 32. OR was among the 7 states to list no deaths.


Total deaths:

​

40 states have more than 100 total deaths. That's 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that. Currently at 82 and 81, respectively, ID and ME will soon be joining that statistics

Of those 40, 18 states in the Union have a total of more than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths. In the next days, MN, NC and AZ are likely to join that unlucky club.

With 29,553 total deaths at current, the state of NY has more deaths to mourn than every other COUNTRY on the Earth save the USA itself, UK and Italy. However, at the rate that Brazil (currently: 25,697) is moving in the rankings, Brazil will soon have many, many more deaths to mourn than NY state. I suspect that this will happen within the next 4-5 day, maximum.

On 2020-05-027, we ended the day with 102,107 US deaths from COVID-19. Now, all that as raw numbers may not really be getting into peoples' heads quite yet, so here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 100,000-106,500:



As of 2020-05-026, this means that we lost the equivalent of ALL of Hillsboro, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (will start 2020-06-001):​

Let's assume that as of 2020-06-001, we are at 103,000 dead in the USA. Sure looks like that is going to easily happen, just as the extrapolation predicted. Actually, it looks like we will be closer to 105,000, maybe 106,000. Wait and see.

OK, what happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day, let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This is simple math: from June 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020, there are 214 days (7 months at 30 days plus four months with one extra day, the 31st: July, August, October, December). 214 * 700 = 149,800 + 103,000 = 252,800 US-American deaths by the end of 2020 if the average daily deaths is just one-half of what I extrapolated from April 28-May 31, 2020.

Our hope is that we come in far, far, far below 700 deaths per day, but as you can already see, on this day, 2020-05-027, we were at +1,535 deaths and the peak for the weeks has probably not yet been reached. So, halving the former extrapolation is probably pretty reasonable, at least for now. I am not going to be following this extrapolation every day, but rather, I will officially start it on June 1st and will refer back to it at the end of each month.

In the worldwide report for this same date (2020-05-027), I did a flashback to my start-date for collecting this data, which was 2020-02-027, numerically, exactly 3 months ago. In the report, I posted some screenshots from back then, but just to see how far the USA has come since that date, here a quote:

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, starting June 1, 2020, to happen.




-Stat

 

The latest daily kill-rate for Covid-19 in the US shows a continued upward transition. So, all the really matters is the question of how quickly will the down-rate for deaths arrive. Or not arrive?

Frankly I have no faith in the predictive assessments. And any bonafide count across all affected nations is under no central control.

So, go figure when this epidemic has demonstrably ended ...

PS: For which the WHO should be authorized, as it was for SARS 20012/4, to mount a group of analysts and fund them to find an antidote. If they find none in the next seven years, then, like SARS, they can "move on". And we can all participate in a betting-game of which country is the first to announce a SARS-3 death ... ! (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)
PPS: Isn't this fun !!!?!!! - except when it isn't.

 

You have to ask, why the heck is covid-19 so contagious and deadly in the NE region of our country. I get the population density but it seems much more deadly there than the rest of the country? The numbers are chilling compared to the rest of the country.

 

THE DEADLY NORTH EAST

Because it IS the most dense part in terms of population of the country and deadly is the best word for it. To wit, the Deadly Northeast of the US.

Population Density Map - USA:



AND

Covid-19 cases and deaths by state and county:

 

POST SCRIPTUM

See why "staying-in" is so important to defeating Covid-19? In higher population density localities the ability to transfer the Covid-19 micro-organism is very, very much enhanced. Which is consequential for the red-zone shown of deaths by state in the map above.

But, in some other parts of the country staying-in (and away from others) becomes far less important. Still, one never knows! Which is why for the next 2, 3 or 5 months it is perhaps a damn-good-idea to wear a mask when you are in a public-crowd - that is, shopping, at the theater, in a restaurant.

Eating in a restaurant with a mask on? Well no, so see below.

We in Europe are being allowed to adapt to each situation by state as is fit. In large-cities with high density, the rules are very different from out in the countryside. But even when, in the countryside, people do get together for a meal on Sunday. Now, since one cannot eat a meal with a mask on, they restaurants typically arrange the tables to accommodate guests who are dining together but at tables substantially distant from one another.

Those dining "together" are typically people who know one another and have typically been in one another's company - meaning "So far, so good. No problems". But, going out to a restaurant and sitting jam-packed at tables amongst strangers is simply no longer being allowed here in Europe

PS: This above regimentation of restaurant dining is considered necessary to assure that the contagion is contained. Frankly, I am staying away from restaurants for another three months at the very least. (No harm done, I go to restaurants where there are "take-out services"! ;^)

 

IN MEMORIAM

 

In terms of mortality, 5 of the top 10 States with the highest mortality are in the Northeast (Connecticut, Pennsylvannia, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and New York).

But the place where the virus is deadliest is, and has for weeks now, been Arizona. Michigan comes in second.




(The reason that the numbers 4 and 5 are missing is because those slots would are occupied by the Northern Mariana Islands and US Virgin Islands respectively).

 

Well, he has a problem, over 100,000 dead on parade and 40 million unemployed.
Those are nasty hard core numbers.
Any diversion is welcome.
Yesterday he was in Florida, trying to get a patriotic boost, but the skies of Florida opened up with tears, instead.
Nothing goes his way, so unfair.

What is it with the Florida skies ?
Daytona 500, rained out when he showed up and now the launch.