Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Still Number One, but increasingly sharing the top of the rankings with non-First World nations. Even India is doing better.

 

That is a very sad number.

 

deleted

 

Does anyone know what the **** happened to France?

Check this out - The Way Back Machine Link for June 2nd:

https://web.archive.org/web/20200602050732/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

France: 189,220 cases and 28,833 deaths

And now?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

France: 151,677 cases and 29,021 deaths.

John Hopkins has France at 115,000 cases...what the ****?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

I'm curious about India. They are obviously hiding, but how bad is it that they are hiding this obtusely.

They are claiming ridiculously low numbers. They are claiming 157 cases per million, which is thousands below other countries. We know about their density. I get that India does things the "India" way, but c'mon.... seriously, who do they think they are fooling? I work with people from India, who I respect and trust. They say things are Very VERY bad.

 

I'm not sure they are hiding anything.
It looks like they are having trouble getting testing going considering how many people they have.

It also looks like it is possible it's just getting up a good head of steam.

 

That is a magnificent effort on your part.

Many thanks.

 

Indeed, as I noticed on two worldwide reports last week, twice we came to or crossed over the 125,000 new case mark and even if you took away all the new cases for the USA, the world still came in over 100,000. And it just happened again yesterday as well, check out today's worldwide analysis when it come out, in about 90 minutes from now. This means that the misery is growing in most all corners of the world.

It's also the reason why I started both the "Lowerdecks" and "Future Upperdecks" series. There are a number of countries out there, the names for which most people may never have heard, that are starting in the same trajectory as the UK, Italy, Spain....

Nice to hear from you, hope you are well and healthy.

 

It's appearing more and more to me that India did not have any of the infrastructure needed to quickly make and distribute C19 tests.

That being said the PMs of both India and Pakistan are ugly nationalists and would rather saw off their legs than admit that they have a C19 problem, not wanting to appear weak in front of the other.

 

I noted it on the worldwide report for 2020-06-002 and screenshotted WorldOMeter's reporting of France's explanation.

 

HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before.

During the run of the day on 2020-06-003, there was one analysis of size:
USA EOD report for 2020-06-002, posted 2020-06-003, 10:47 GMT +2, #9731.

NOTE: to confirm this quick analysis or to sort the date as you wish, use the following links to work the table on your own:
- the WORLDOMETER website for today, or
- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future. In order to to that, search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. On some days, WORLDOMETER also provides a "2 days ago" function as well, which is the case today.

​

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Wednesday, 2020-06-003 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

******6,562,695******
+121,413 cases today over yesterday.
There are 117 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.
We are now at 386,788 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
1,269 Brazilians, 1,083 Americans & 470 Mexicans died from COVID-19 on this day.
The recovered vs. still active C19 cases statistic now shows a clear plurality for recovered cases.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

We ended the 3nd day of month 6 of the year 2020, a Wednesday, at 6.56 million C19 cases. Just two Wednesdays before, we jumped over 5 million cases.

In terms of worldwide daily deaths, there is no discernable pattern to the three Wednesdays before.

It's been a long time since the % of recovered cases was at parity with the % of still active cases. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2020-03-014, 2.5 month ago to see this, which btw, was when this thead was created. On 2020-06-003, the number of recovered cases, numerically and by percentage, overtook the number of still sick cases, which is obviously the direction in which we want to go.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +25 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of total cases per country, there are 117 nations in the "thousand club". Of those 117, 55 are in the "10,000 club". Currently at 9,733 and 9,438 respectively, Algeria and the Czech Republic are next up, but Moldova and Ghana may get there quicker.

Finally, 13 of those 55 are at 100,000 or more. Mexico will likely go over the 100,000 line on 2020-06-004, with Canada, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan not far behind. Soon, there will be at least 17 nations over the 100,000 line.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases: Brazil (+27,312) lead the USA (+20,578 ) with the most new cases. India, Russia, Chile, Pakistan, Peru, Mexico and Iran took rankings 3-9 in daily C19 cases. VERY DISTURBING is that Iran is once again, for a third day in a row, so high up on this list. We must now ask if Iran is starting to encounter a second wave.

61 countries had +100 or more new cases, a little less than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 61. Of those 61, 17 countries had +1000 or more new cases.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending, there are SEVENTY-ONE nations with 100 total deaths or more. That is 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. Of those 71, TWENTY-NINE nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. There are 12 nations between 500-1000 total deaths and you can be guaranteed that by the end of this month, every single on of them will have gone over this gruesome marker.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths, Brazil was at rank 1 (+1,269), the USA at rank 2 (+1,083), then Mexico at rank 3 (+470).

8 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 8 the day before). 4 of those 8 countries are from the Americas.

You will see that I have once again highlighted some smaller nations, at about 1,000 C19 cases or less. Those are nations that I am tracking through a series that I call "Future Upperdecks":

"Future Upperdecks" Series, #1: Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Mauritania and Malawi, posted 2020-05-030, 19:00 GMT +2, #9612.

And "Future Upperdecks" Series, #2 (7 other nations).

It's all explained at the links.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 13 nations have administered more than 1 million tests apiece.The USA has now performed 19.1 million tests (500,000 more than the day before) while Russia has performed 11.4 million tests (200,000 more than the day before). At 997,000 tests performed, Iran will likely be the next nation to go over the 1 million mark in total tests.

Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections, is stuck at 930,000 tests. Just imagine how many more positives Brazil would now be showing were it to test on the scale of the USA or Russia.... and btw, Peru and Venezuela have performed more C19 tests than Brazil. Because so many other nations are starting to ramp up their testing, here the rankings for the top 27 countries:




On this list are nine nations between 800,000-1,000,000 administered tests and I would wager to say that by the end of June, 2020, all nine of them will go over the 1,000,000 mark. This is also the reason why daily +125,000 positives, soon, maybe considerably more, is going to become the new normal. If you don't test, then you can't isolate, mitigate and contract-trace.

Facit: on 2020-06-003, the world came in at 6.56 million total C19 cases. We are on our way to 10 million confirmed C19 cases by the end of June 2020.

Now at +109,142 deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. At the USA analysis for 2020-05-026, I started a new extrapolation.... this means that 200,000 total US deaths may come upon us sooner than many may be thinking possible. Soon, I will be starting an extrapolation for the world as well.

It should also be noted that at this rate of growth - an average of 22,000 new C19 cases per day, Brazil will join the USA and go over the 1,000,000 mark within 3 weeks.

The world-wide curve has most definitely flattened, which was the primary goal of mitigation. The slight rise in the growth rate in total cases is, however, not a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.

Editorial comment (I am gonna leave this here for a while): my gut tells me that we are going to see one or more very unpleasant surprises in this month as concerns COVID-19: either a massive rise in cases and deaths where we were not looking, or something new about the illness itself that we had not known before, something that will make going into the summer of 2020 (in the Northern Hemisphere) even more difficult. I am feeling this deep down in my bones. I have a very, very bad feeling about this month.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Wednesday, 2020-06-003 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

*1,901,783*
+20,578 cases today over the day before.
109,142 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA.
1,083 Americans out of the total above died from COVID-19 on this day.
688,670 people have recovered (a sizeable jump), 1,103,971 are, however, still sick.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In order to confirm my quick analysis, please go directly to the WORLDOMETER website today or to the WAYBACK MACHINE after today. If you use the wayback machine after today, search for one day later than the date you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. This way, you have more control over what you want to see and when you want to see it.

The daily deaths from 2020-06-003 are definitely lower than the two Wednesdays before, which is very, very good news. In terms of daily C-19 cases, 2020-06-003 shows an almost identical number to the Wednesday before and somewhat less than two weeks ago. Assuming that the US has an average of just +20,000 cases in the next days, then it will go over the 2 million mark next Monday, maybe Tuesday. I am sensing that psychologically, this will be an important yet unpleasant milestone. Brazil, which is growing considerably more cases per day than the USA, will probably go over the 1 million mark in 20 days. Important to note is that, in spite of verifiably ramped-up performed C-19 tests, the number of new daily cases has plateau'd mostly around +20,000. It's a logistical development and not exponential.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total confirmed cases, descending:
​

Total confirmed C-19 cases:​

45 out of 50 states have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. VT (990) is crawling slowly up to the 1,000 line. 33 of those 45, + "Veterans affairs" (14,874) and US military personel (10,203) have more than 10,000 cases, so actually, it's 35, and Veterans Affairs is really rank 29 and US military personnel is really rank 34. DE, DC, NV and NM will shortly also cross that gruesome line.

Also, by the end of the year, the chances are close to 100% that every state and territory will have over 500 C19 cases and maybe 45-47 of them will have over 10,000. The point is: this this is long not over with. And here I am referring only to the year 2020. There will also be 2021 to consider.

New daily cases:​

37 states + DC (38 ) reported more than +100 new cases; the day before, it was 36.

4 of those 37 states reported over +1,000 new cases on 2020-05-029: CA, TX, FL and NC.

1 states reported no new cases:HI

New daily deaths:​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

42 of 50 states reported at least one death. The day before, it was 41.

Of those 41, 1 states reported more than 100 daily deaths: NJ. This means that the deaths were more evenly spread throughout the Republic.

This time, the death toll sunk from Tuesday to Wednesday of the week, which I consider to be very, very good news.

Total deaths:
​

40 states have more than 100 total deaths. That's 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that. At 95 and 83 total deaths respectively, ME and ID will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 40, 19 states in the Union now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. At 999 and 981 total deaths respectively, both NC and AZ will cross over that gruesome marker on 2020-06-003.


FACIT: on 2020-06-001, we ended the day with 109,142 US deaths from COVID-19. Now, all that as raw numbers may not really be getting into peoples' heads quite yet, so here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between roughly 107,000-111,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of ALL of Pueblo, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not.

So, some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen. And right now, we are 847 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation.


-Stat

 

Went back and checked on WoM and since March 30th, more than 2 months ago, the Daily Deaths have only dropped below 700 on 3 occasions. Two of those dates were over the Memorial Day weekend followed by a big spike to 1535 which indicates that it was probably a lack of reporting rather than a lack of deaths on those dates.

The lowest that the 7 day rolling average has been is 986 so we are still way above the line if we are going to meet your 700 average target. The more time we spend above the line the less chance there is of just keeping the number of total deaths down to your projections.

We seriously need a cure and I was reading about some new studies about the virus which I reported upon in this thread of BowerBird's.

http://politicalforum.com/index.php...athophysiology.571138/page-11#post-1071748173

The article which explains the studies in layman's terms is here.

https://elemental.medium.com/corona...isease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2

In essence the virus causes a variety of symptoms unrelated to a respiratory disease and those symptoms can be explained if the virus is a vascular disease instead. There are treatments for vascular diseases which is new direction for finding a cure for Covid19. This is not going to be a "miracle cure" but rather another avenue to be explored to gather a better understanding of this baffling killer.

The longer it takes to find this cure the more people are ultimately going to die because of it.

 

So, it's not even 07:30 on the East Coast of the USA and already the first really terrible news of the day: Mexico has already reported almost 1,100 daily COVID-19 deaths....



Since Wednesday and Thursday tend to be the two heaviest days of the week (we've already added +34,000 C-19 cases since the EOD report for 2020-06-003), there is the real possibility for the first time since the outbreak of C19 across the world that 3 nations will all report more than +1,000 deaths today: the USA, Brazil and, obviously, Mexico. Maybe the USA will get lucky and come in under +1,000 deaths, but that would be the first time on a Thursday since: 2020-03-026, more than 2 months ago.

This could be a portent of things to come as more and more nations are hit hard by the first wave.

This is a horror scenario.

 

I'm in and out today with lots of work, but over the last hours the world blew way past 6.6 million C19 cases and has grown over +72,000 cases since the daily worldwide report for 2020-06-003, and more importantly, very few of those new cases are from the USA:





It used to be that the cases from the USA were a good 30% of the world's daily case load, right now, it's only 11.6% of the "viral" load for the day. Since I've been tracking the numbers, I've never seen them jump so high from the day before at this time of my day (around 7 pm), so I am pretty sure that we will come in over +125,000 cases when all is said and done today.

-Stat

PS. Again, note the horrifying death total out of Mexico. Shudder....

 

Hypercrowded pool party at Lake of the Ozarks has no effect at all. 8 deaths in all of Missouri yesterday. COVID is over as an issue.

 

That is very good news for Missouri. The entire country is not done, though.

Italy is also stating that Covid is done, there.

Fingers crossed we got this right and there will be no wave 2, like in 1920 and 2010. Those second waves were more deadly the than first.

 

...that piece of evidence makes absolutely no sense. The people at those pool parties were overwhelmingly the type of individual who is extremely unlikely to die from the virus.

 

I'd have to disagree. The spring breakers in Florida caused quite the drama with all the cases they caused. Remember when Stat said his friend's kid (21 YO) got sick from hanging around with friends, drinking beer & spitting on each other? I think that young man died.

 

Not only that, it's not been three weeks since that event happened. So, I would encourage everyone to not be rushing to conclusions yet.

 

The United States has now gone over 110,000 COVID-19 deaths.
Currently: 110,007

 

I take it social distancing is no longer vital because protests.

 

You have the wrong take.

 

In fairness, India wouldn't be the first very crowded Asian nation to handle it better than expected. Thailand is doing well, for example. Vietnam, even better. While India is almost certainly fudging numbers to some degree, I think some credit must be given to them for taking the threat seriously.

 

Yes, it's worrying. Many of the countries which remained relatively unscathed are now being impacted. The upside (as it were) is that quite a few nations are holding steady on suppression, despite re-opening. It means the virus has been largely eliminated from circulation in the community. Here for example, almost all our new daily cases are returning citizens who picked it up overseas and were tested in formal quarantine. One or two a day are 'known contacts' (associated with a cluster), but that's about it now. Schools have been back for three weeks and businesses have re-opened, and in that time new cases have actually decreased. They will undoubtedly go up again at some point, but given our tracing is so good, any little clusters arising will be swiftly managed and limited. We don't muck around with tracing, or with quarantine

All well here, hope you and yours are same ... over on the other side!