Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

8 deaths in a single day, in a single state, is terrible.

 

Suppression is the answer. It's our only means of limiting death and debilitation until that cure is found.

 

India has some of the worst population densities and slums in the world. They are in the top 5 on both lists. Thailand and Vietnam? Not so much.

I work with someone who is holed up in India with his family right now. He's intelligent, and I respect him. He tells me it's horrifying what's happening there.

 

BINGO
U-Boot versengt

 

I do not believe any number from India or Brazil, they do not have the government organisation. 80% of the population in those countries fly under the umbrella. Never see a hospital, no matter how sick, nobody cares if they die and what the cause is.

 

Very light compared to NY, IL, NJ, PA, MA, et al. The "sinful" pool party of no masks and close contact in MO was bust for COVID. Kinda like spring break in Florida.

 

Undoubtedly. How could it not be, with a billion people and limited resources.

Even still, given their incredibly difficult circumstances, it could be far far worse.

 

Sorry, in what sense was it a 'bust'? That none of the healthy kids died? Well sure, if you're determined to avoid the bigger picture. Any one (or several) of them could have spread it far and wide .. in which case there WILL be deaths.

And 'very light' is subjective. We haven't had a single death in my country in a week.

 

Y'all are superhuman.

The riot-loot-burn COVID results will be interesting.

 

Yes, that's undoubtedly a factor.

I understand many Americans have died under the same circumstances .. falling ill but never seeking medical attention, then dying at home.

 

You think it's 'superhuman' to take a few simple steps to mitigate a pandemic? Do you think Vietnam is superhuman? How about Greece? New Zealand? Iceland?

You're talking about feeble little nations, guy. No power or importance on the world stage. Poor too, in some cases.

 

~ Don't forget to wear your mask !

 

I wish to encourage you to start at the beginning of this thread and read the OP.

Thanks.

 

The number of administered C19 tests in Vietnam has not budged in at least 42 days. So, the numbers in Vietnam have not moved because Vietnam is literally reporting nothing.

 

HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before.

During the run of the day on 2020-06-004, there was one analysis of size and 2 predictions, 12 and 7 hours before EOD, respectively:
USA EOD report for 2020-06-003, posted 2020-06-004, 10:17 GMT +2, ‚#9763.
Prediction of 3 nations with at least +1,000 daily deaths, posted 2020-06-004, 13:23 GMT +2, #9764.
Prediction of coming in well over +125,000 new C-19 cases, posted 2020-06-004, 19:10 GMT +2, #9765.

NOTE: to confirm this quick analysis or to sort the date as you wish, use the following links to work the table on your own:
- the WORLDOMETER website for today, or
- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future. In order to to that, search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. On some days, WORLDOMETER also provides a "2 days ago" function as well, which is the case today.

​

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Thursday, 2020-06-004 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

******6,692,686******
A record-breaking +129,990 cases today over yesterday.
There are 117 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.
We are now at 392,286 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
1,492 Brazilians, 1,092 Mexicans & 1,031 Americans died from COVID-19 on this day, a record.
The recovered vs. still active C19 cases statistic shows a growing plurality for recovered cases.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

We ended the 4th day of month 6 of the year 2020, a Thursday, at just under 6.7 million C19 cases. Just four Thursdays before, we were on the cuff to 4 million cases.

During the course of the day on 2020-06-004, I made two predictions:
1.) that it was very likely that at EOD, for the first time ever, 3 nations would report more than 1,000 daily deaths, and
2.) that we would likely set a record and go well over +125,000 new C-19 cases for that day.

Both predictions came to pass.

But just to show how important statistics can be, look at the growth rate for the daily C19 cases: on 2020-06-004, with +129,990 new cases, the growth rate moved up from +1.88% the day before (+121,414 cases) to +1.98%. The day before that, with +115,215 cases, the growth rate was: +1.82%. Now, go to the excel table and look at 2020-04-024, about 6 weeks ago: +115,741 cases, almost identical to 2020-06-002, but the growth rate back then was: +4.27%. What would have happened on 2020-06-004 if the growth rate from 2020-06-003 to 2020-06-004 would have been 4.27%? Well: 6,652,696 *0,0427 = 284,070!! So, in spite of the huge + numbers, we should thank our lucky stars that the growth rate from the end of April is not the growth rate at the beginning of June.

In terms of worldwide daily deaths, the deaths from Thursday were above the three Thursdays before, but below the fourth Thursday before.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +25 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of total cases per country, there are 117 nations in the "thousand club". Of those 117, 55 are in the "10,000 club". Currently at 9,831 and 9,494 respectively, Algeria and the Czech Republic are next up, but Moldova and Ghana may get there quicker.

14 of those 55 are now at 100,000 or more, with Mexico having gone over the 100,000 line on 2020-06-004. Canada, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan not far behind. Soon, there will be at least 17 nations over the 100,000 line.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases: Brazil (+31,890) lead the USA (+22,268 ) widely with the most new cases. India, Russia, Pakistan, Chile, Peru, Mexico and Iran took rankings 3-9 in daily C19 cases. VERY DISTURBING is that Iran is once again, for the fourth day in a row, so high up on this list. We must now ask if Iran is starting to encounter a second wave.

64 countries had +100 or more new cases, a little less than 1/3 of all nations in the world, including CAR, one of the nations in my "future Upperdecks" series. The day before, it was 61. Of those 61, 17 countries had +1000 or more new cases.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending, there are now SEVENTY-TWO nations with 100 total deaths or more, with Yemen having crossed over the 100 line. That is more than 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. Of those 72, TWENTY-NINE nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. There are 12 nations between 500-1000 total deaths and you can be guaranteed that by the end of this month, every single on of them will have gone over this gruesome marker.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths, Brazil was at rank 1 (+1,492), Mexico at rank 2 (+1,092), then the USA at rank 3 (+1,031). This is the first time in a very long time where the USA was neither 1st nor 2nd in daily deaths, good for the USA, terrible for the others. This is a statistic that absolutely no one wants to see.

8 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 8 the day before). 4 of those 8 countries are from the Americas. Very seldom do I write about Germany, where I live, but by contrast, Germany had +37 deaths on 2020-06-004. That is more than 100-times-less-deaths than Brazil.

You will see that I have once again highlighted some smaller nations, at about 1,000 C19 cases or less. Those are nations that I am tracking through a series that I call "Future Upperdecks":

"Future Upperdecks" Series, #1: Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Mauritania and Malawi, posted 2020-05-030, 19:00 GMT +2, #9612.

And "Future Upperdecks" Series, #2 (7 other nations).

It's all explained at the links.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 14 nations have administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Iran having crossed over the 1 million line on 2020-06-004 .The USA has now performed 19.6 million tests (500,000 more than the day before) while Russia has performed 11.7 million tests (300,000 more than the day before). At 996,000 tests performed, Poland (surprise, surprise) will likely be the next nation to go over the 1 million mark in total tests.

Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections, is at 986,635 tests. Brazil's postive C19 cases to total adminstered tests is a whalloping 62.42%! That is absolutely huge. There is just no other way to describe this. Now, just imagine how many more positives Brazil would now be showing were it to test on the scale of the USA or Russia...





On this list are nine nations between 800,000-1,000,000 administered tests and I would wager to say that by the end of June, 2020, all nine of them will go over the 1,000,000 mark. This is also the reason why daily +125,000 positives, soon, maybe considerably more, is going to become the new normal. If you don't test, then you can't isolate, mitigate and contract-trace.

Facit: on 2020-06-004, the world came in at just below 6.7 million total C19 cases. We are on our way to 10 million confirmed C19 cases by the end of June 2020.

Now at +110,173 deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. At the USA analysis for 2020-05-026, I started a new extrapolation.... this means that 200,000 total US deaths may come upon us sooner than many may be thinking possible. Soon, I will be starting an extrapolation for the world as well.

It should also be noted that at this rate of growth - an average of 22,000 new C19 cases per day, Brazil will join the USA and go over the 1,000,000 mark within 3 weeks. Also, after days on end surpassing the USA in daily cases and also often surpassing the USA in daily deaths, we can now safely say that Brazil, and not the USA, is the hottest of the hotspots in the world, with the USA close behind.

The world-wide curve has generally flattened, which was the primary goal of mitigation. The steady rise in the growth rate in total cases is, however, not a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.

Editorial comment (I am gonna leave this here for a while): my gut tells me that we are going to see one or more very unpleasant surprises in this month as concerns COVID-19: either a massive rise in cases and deaths where we were not looking, or something new about the illness itself that we had not known before, something that will make going into the summer of 2020 (in the Northern Hemisphere) even more difficult. I am feeling this deep down in my bones. I have a very, very bad feeling about this month.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Thursday, 2020-06-004 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

*1,924,051*
+22,268 cases today over the day before.
110,173 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA.
1,031 Americans out of the total above died from COVID-19 on this day.
712,252 people have recovered (a sizeable jump), 1,101,626 are, however, still sick.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In order to confirm my quick analysis, please go directly to the WORLDOMETER website today or to the WAYBACK MACHINE after today. If you use the wayback machine after today, search for one day later than the date you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. This way, you have more control over what you want to see and when you want to see it.

The daily deaths from 2020-06-004 are definitely lower than the four Thursdays before, which is very, very good news. In fact, the daily deaths from 2020-06-004 are slightly less than 1/2 the number from 2020-05-007, one month before! In terms of daily C-19 cases, 2020-06-004 shows an almost identical number to the Thursday before and somewhat less than the three other Thursdays before. It is amazing how, in terms of C-19 cases, this week is starting to look almost like a carbon-copy of last week.

Assuming that the US has an average of just +20,000 cases in the next days, then it will go over the 2 million mark next Monday, maybe Tuesday. I am sensing that psychologically, this will be an important yet unpleasant milestone. Brazil, which is growing considerably more cases per day than the USA, will probably go over the 1 million mark in 20 days. Important to note is that, in spite of verifiably ramped-up performed C-19 tests, the number of new daily cases has plateau'd mostly around +20,000. It's a logistical development and not exponential.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total confirmed cases, descending:
​

Total confirmed C-19 cases:​

46 out of 50 states now have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases, with VT having crossed over the 1,000 line on 2020-06-004. 33 of those 46, + "Veterans affairs" (15,144) and the US Military (10,285) have more than 10,000 cases, so actually, it's 35, and Veterans Affairs is really rank 28 and US military personnel is really rank 34. DE, DC, NV and NM will shortly also cross that gruesome line, but at the rate that AR is growing cases, it may well get there first.

Also, by the end of the year, the chances are close to 100% that every state and territory will have over 500 C19 cases and maybe 45-47 of them will have over 10,000. The point is: this this is long not over with. And here I am referring only to the year 2020. There will also be 2021 to consider.

New daily cases:​

35 states + DC (36) reported more than +100 new cases; the day before, it was 37. OK reported more than 100 cases. KS, once again, reported 0 cases. I find this, frankly, hard to believe. Perhaps KS is moving to a system of reporting twice a week or something like that.

For the first time in a while, we saw new cases reported in all of the territories as well, also in the US prison system, the Navajo Nations and Veteran's affairs.

4 of those 35 states reported over +1,000 new cases on 2020-05-029: CA, FL, TX and NY. Disconcerting that NY once again has over +1,000 fresh C-19 cases. GA (953) was just under the 1,000 line. With +2,548 cases added, CA now has a total of 122,808 cases and has become the 4th largest C-19 state in the Union, after NY, NJ and IL. By contrast, on 2020-05-001, CA had 51,775 total cases, so it has more than doubled it's viral load in just one month's time. At this rate of growth, CA will surpass IL today or tomorrow and NJ by the end of the month.

1 state reported no new cases: KS

New daily deaths:​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

36 of 50 states (+DC = 37) reported at least one death. The day before, it was 42.

Of those 36, 4 states reported more than 100 daily deaths: NY (+117), PA (+115), IL (+115) and NJ (+100). This means that the deaths were LESS evenly spread throughout the Republic than the day before.

This time, the death toll sunk from Wednesday to Thursday of the week, which I consider to be very, very good news.

Total deaths:
​

40 states have more than 100 total deaths. That's 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that. At 95 and 83 total deaths respectively, ME and ID will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 40, 20 states in the Union now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths, with NC having crossed over the 1,000 line on 2020-06-004. At 996 total deaths, AZ will cross over that gruesome marker on 2020-06-005.


FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 110,173 US deaths from COVID-19. Now, all that as raw numbers may not really be getting into peoples' heads quite yet, so here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between roughly 107,000-111,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of ALL of Manchester, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not.

So, some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen. And right now, we are 1,178 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation.


-Stat

 

The new Cases per Day is a KPI metric that bears watching carefully.

Currently it appears to be stable and the best case scenario is when it starts to decline.

However if it goes up that will be the worst case scenario and mean that the 2nd wave has begun nationwide.

 

The problem with your analysis is that that pool party was on Memorial Day, 2020-05-025, as of the time of your writing, 10 days before, now, 11 days before. A person can get infected and remain completely asymptomatic for a good 7 days, then symptoms can take as long as 14 days AFTERWARD to even begin to manifest themselves. Further, most people wait a number of days before going to the hospital, as things start to get really bad. So, we would be looking at three weeks before someone from that pool party would go to the hospital and be diagnosed with C19. It can then be two to three or even 4 weeks from hospitalization before death may occur. So, what is happening here is that you are making an assumption based on your political wishes and inserting it into a time frame that doesn't work at all.

So, let's do the real math and handicap it by shortening the time before people would go to the hospital:

Two weeks after Memorial day = Monday, 2020-06-008. Between 2020-06-008 and 2020-06-15, people may start to show symptoms serious enough to warrant a hopital visit. Let's assume, however, that they all show up on Monday 2020-06-008 and some of them are diagnosed on that day and then some of them die 2 weeks later. That would be 2020-06-022, AT THE EARLIEST. So, gee, your time frame is only off by 19 days...

Now, I encourage you to bookmark this posting of mine. I certainly am. And in 19 days, I am going to reply to this AGAIN. Because math is not on the side of your argument, not even by a longshot.

-Stat

 

The way you wrote that is pretty crass (because a protest march is not necessarily a riot and people who have protested are not necessarily the looters, etc) and comes across as somewhat unfriendly, but I agree with you on the essence of what you wrote, because any form of activity that allows the virus to invade human hosts while it is still circulating out there is just plain old stupid.

Protesters who are marching in the streets of large cities and towns right now without adequate physical distancing and without masks are putting themselves and others in danger. The fact that George Floyd's body tested positive for C19 during the course of his autopsy and apparently did not know that he even had C19 while he was alive tells us that this can happen to any person. So, yeah, the results (within 3-5 weeks from now) will be interesting because you can be 100% guaranteed that there are asymptomatic people walking around all over the place and surely crossing your path just as they are crossing my path. Also among the asymptomatics: police officers, national guard soldiers, etc.

Just right now, the results of the maga crowd protesting against shutdown restrictions at the End of April / beginning of May are starting to show themselves. See: the posting of mine above as an answer to you.

And finally, one of the first networks to raise the issue of the dangers of these protests during a C19 wave is a network that some love to hate,namely: CNN. CNN was very, very level-headed about this.

Finally, I want to say to you that I am glad you are here on this thread and want to make sure that you know you are welcome here. Opposing viewpoints are not only welcome, they are wished for - as long as the delivery is not an attempt to troll, which I do not sense with you. Give as much contra as you wish, "Gegenwind" can sometimes be a good thing. But remember, the reason for this thread is to track the COVID-19 stats as explained in the OP and also described in the thread title.

 

What worries me, the US might be in for a double banger, Memorial week end and the protests, middle of June to end of June.

 

Most likely, an upward slope, and hopefully, non-exponential.

 

What I recently read is that you have to be within 6 FT for approximately 10 minutes. Save for couples, how many people are really going to be within 6 ft for 10 minutes? Not many, how many will knowingly be sick and still go out? Again, not many.

I think if you're aware of your symptoms, aware of your situation you can do your part to keep this thing at the minimum it can be. It's time for society to take control of its own fate instead of being dictated to about fate.

 

Sorry for the double post guys, but there's definitely a problem with these states reporting. So here in Philly, we have 23,281 cases right? So I subtracted that from the active cases number(21,882) and I got the 1,399 number that matches the total number of deaths.

The obvious problem with that, is it infers 0 recoveries! That's ridiculous, there's at least a few thousand cases that need to be taken off the rolls, like now. So as an instance, I bet the first 100-500 cases reported still hadn't been "resolved" according to Philadelphia county, that's completely and utterly absurd.

 

So I don't know about Philadelphia specifically, but PA does report recoveries. According to Covidtracking.com, at least 51,000 have recovered against the total infected of ~74.5K.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...GdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#

If you want to estimate the number of recovered in Philly, one conservative way would be to look back to the number of infected one month ago. Take that number, and subtract out the deceased of ~1400 and you have a very conservative estimate for the recovered. The people who do not experience severe reactions to this virus will definitely have recovered in less than a month.

 

We started this day with 6,692,686 C-19 cases worldwide. During the day, we have blown past both 6.7 million AND 6.8 million:





So, the world has already grown +110,000 new C19 cases and the majority of Brazil has not even reported in yet. Sure looks like we are going to come close to or shoot over +125,000 once again. However, today, Mexico is under +1,000 daily deaths, so that is a good sign. The USA is currently at +1,012 and Brazil is at +586 both totals are sure to rise in the next 2.5 hours.

It sure looks like to me as if at least +100,000 C19 cases per day, if not considerably more, is becoming the norm.

Sorry, have not been on much, I am back to working - a great deal.

Hope you all are well and healthy.

-Stat