Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Megachurch in Alpharetta, Georgia is suspending all in-person church services until 2021:

https://www.christianpost.com/news/...y-suspends-in-person-services-until-2021.html

This pastor seems reasonable to me.

 

Pastor Andy Stanley is a New Testament Pastor, thus, my type.

Old Testament Pastors; “Y’all going to hell in a handbasket”

In addition, Pastor Stanley political views;;

Google; Andy Stanley talks politics ahead of 2020 election

I very like his part 4; “How to choose between two evils”

“When forced to choose between the lesser of two evils, you still have to call out the evil, not for our sake and not even for our party’s sake, but for the worlds’ sake.

When forced to choose between two imperfect candidates, we have to call out their imperfections”

——————-

Question; How many of Trump’s Evangelicals have defended his imperfections?

 

Babies!? We're doing babies now? Dear lord, this virus keeps getting worse and worse

 

Positives for the nation just hit 10%. A number not seen since early May.

Arizona went nuts (again) but it may just be a catchup day as there were very few tests.

California still hanging by a thread.

Florida remains flat.

Georgia about the same.

And Texas.

It looks like we are cooking up some new hot spots to go with the old ones.

 

We should watch Texas. It was June 26th that they closed bars and restricted restaurants again. If that was the problem we should see the results in the next few days.

 

I'm busy with Sunday work today, so the analyses will come out considerably later in this day. But here the current figures for yesterday, 2020-07-018 for the world and for the USA:




I suspect that the worldwide numbers for yesterday will be revised during the day today (it happens very often on Sundays), so it's just as well if I wait a number of hours.

till then,

Stat

 

By results you mean that there will a slower increase in new cases, right?

 

According to Trump’s analogy, Gov. Greg Abbott is a fool.

Abbot once said; If the positive rate rise above 10%, the State of Texas would take further action to mitigate the spread of Covid19.

Trump’s analogy; If you reduce your number of tests by 50%, you will reduce your number of cases by 50%.

 

Yes. Bars opening has been one of the things blamed for their outbreak.

 

Tillerson was right.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER

There were no other analyses on 2020-07-0117 between the last worldwide analysis and this one.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Saturday, 2020-07-018 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍**** 14,414,659 ****֍
+234,906 new C19 cases over the day before, largest Saturday daily case-load to-date.
There are 144 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 75 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 604,243 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,706 of them were on this day.
Worldwide Rolling 7-day average: +222,886 new C19 cases per day and +5,315 deaths per day.
885 Brazilian, 813 US-American, 736 Mexican & 543 Indian deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Less text... more meaning. You can see the rolling averages for yourself: the world has been at a rolling average of at least +200,000 new C19 cases every day for 9 days in a row and over +210,000 for the last 6 of those 9, tendency: rising.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, take a look, if you like. I will definitely revise this analysis. The world is moving faster than I estimated.

The number of daily deaths (5,706) for the day currently being analysed is considerably over all four Saturdays before. The daily deaths 7-day rolling average rose nominally every day since 2020-07-002. But on 2020-07-014, it receded by 9 average deaths, probably statistically insignificant, but still noteworthy. It rose again starting on 2020-07-015.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +350 C19 cases and above):
​

144-75-40-22-3​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 144 nations in the "thousand club", with Suriname having crossed over the 1,000-line on 2020-07-018.

Of those 143, 75 nations are now in the "10,000 club", with Costa Rica having crossed over the 50,000-line on 2020-07-018.

Of those 75 nations, 40 are now in the "50,000 club". Currently at 49,365 cases, Israel is very likely to cross over the 50,000-line today, 2020-07-019.

22 of those 40 nations are at at 100,000 or more. Both Egypt and Iraq have sprung over stillstand China, Indonesia will be next, all three working their way towards the 100,000-line.

Of those 22, 3 nations are now in the "1,000,000" club. Russia is up to join the 1,000,000 club likely in late August, 2020.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

79-40-23-4​

79 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 82.

40 countries had +500 or more cases. The day before, it was 40.

23 countries had +1,000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 23. Israel's daily-case loaded has increased greatly and has been on the 1,000 list for more than one week straight. Once again, both Colombia and Mexico outpaced Russia

And finally, 4 nations had over +10,000 new cases: USA, Brasil, India & South Africa. The day before, it was also 4. This is the eleventh time that South Africa has gone over the +10,000-line, non-consecutively.

On this day, the USA accumulated" +63,259 new C19 cases, far outstripping any other nation on Earth, including Brasil, which last month often surpassed the USA in daily cases and still surpasses the USA in daily deaths.

There can just be no doubt about it - in some corners of the world, with North, Middle and South America leading, C19 is advancing very quickly. But there are also signs that the Middle-East may become a true hotspot for COVID-19. Soon, I will be doing a series on the Middle East.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

90-41-21-11-1​

There are now 90 nations with 100 total deaths or more,.

Of those 90, 41 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date (one-fifth of all nations on Earth).

Of those 41, 21 have over +5,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. Next up to cross over the 5,000-death line: South Africa, which will likely go over the 5,000-line today, 2020-07-019

Of those 21, there are now 11 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

And finally, of those 11, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

Currently at 142,877 total deaths, the USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 23.65% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 23.74%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 78,817 total deaths, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average (which, this time, is also the weekly average) is: +1,046. On 2020-06-024, Brasil ended the day with 53,874 deaths, so it has suffered +24,943 deaths since then. It is on track to reach 100,000 deaths between 2020-08-008 and 2020-08-015, in less than one month.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:​

You can see the top 10 nations, all over +100 daily deaths, for yourself, highighted in the screenshot above.

10 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 10 the day before). 5 of those 10 countries are from the Americas.

If you've been watching the daily death statistics for a while, you will notice a pedulum-effect, almost always between 9 and 11 nations per day with over +100 deaths, sometimes with 1 or 2 over +1,000.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

35 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece and of those 35, 5 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK and India.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here. Then again, this text has been here for more than 3 weeks and China has released: nothing. Sooooo.....

To date: the USA has performed 47.6 million tests (1,000,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 24.7 million tests (300,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has now performed 4.9 million such tests. Brazil is very sluggish in getting total-tests statistics out to the rest of the world.

Facit: on 2020-07-018, the world went from 14.18 million total C19 cases, hopscotching over 14.2, 14.2 and 14.4 million to land at 14.4 million cases.

I think we can all see where this is going.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER

There were no other analyses on 2020-07-018 between the last USA analysis and this one.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Saturday, 2020-07-018 (EOD = GMT +0):

***3,833,271***
+63,259 new COVID-19 cases.
In a row (+ or more): 24 days of +40,000, 13 days of +50,000, 10 non-consecutive days of +60,000-78,000.
There are now 142,877 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA (23.65% of worldwide deaths).
813 of them were recorded on this day.
This time, only 1 state reported over +100 C19 deaths: Arizona.
USA rolling 7 day average = 68,232 new infections & 782 deaths per day.
1,775,219 people have recovered, 1,915,175 are still sick, 16,673 of them are in critical condition.
The recovered statistic has improved: margin = -3.65% vs. active cases (was: -3.86%).
Next week, we should achieve parity in the recovered vs. still sick statistic.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

You can see that the rolling average currently shows +68,232 cases a day (which was ever so slightly less than the day before), which means advancing 1,000,000 cases in just over 14.7 days each time, assuming we maintain the current rate. We are currently -166,729 cases away from the 4 million mark: 166,729 / 68,232 = 2.4 days, so at this rate, we will go over 4,000,000 COVID19-cases in the USA by the coming Tuesday, 2020-07-021.

The actual number of daily deaths reported on this day, +813, reflects a stark rise in deaths compared to the four Saturdays before.

The real concern (and I have been writing this for almost three weeks now) here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a measureable, uncomfortable spike in deaths will start in the next 6 days, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, AZ, TX, CA and GA. Why in this time-frame? Because daily deaths are a lagging indicator. We are already seeing more than just nominal evidence of this right now and it's been happening for long enough now that I can start to see a verifiable trend happening.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

57: 56-47-45-20-10​

56 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 50 of those 56 Units are US States. However, at 351 and the only Unit under the 1,000-line, the Pacific Territories (Guam / Northern Mariana Islands) may take a while to get there.

47 out of 57 UNITS have over 5,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 42 of those 47 Units are US States.

45 out of 57 UNITS have more than +10,000 cases. 40 of those 45 Units are states. The non-states: DC, Puerto Rico Veterans Affairs, the US Military and of course, now, US Federal Prisons.

20 out of 57 UNITS have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 20 of them are states.

And finally, 10 of all 57 Units have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 10 of them are states.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:

​

57: 52-42-13-1​

52 of 57 Units reported at least one new case. 47 of those 52 were states. The 5 non-states: DC, Atlantic Territories, Veterans Affairs, Federal Prisons and Navajo Nation.

42 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 39 of those 42 Units were states. The non-states were: Veterans Affairs, Puerto Rico & Federal Prisons.

13 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases, all 13 of them being states.

1 of those states reported more than +10,000 new cases.

Florida led with +10,328 new C19 cases, followed by California with +8,806, followed by Texas with +7,945 and then the other 10 from Georgia (+4,689 - a state record) on down to Mississippi (+1,017). Ohio is once again on the 1,000-list. But one other state from the industrial Midwest was also on the list: Illinois. 8 of the 13 states are from the Deep South.

But it's not just those 13 states. Just as the day before, the next 14 states all recorded between +500 and +1,000 new C19 cases, among them, very close to +1,000: Wisconsin, Virginia and Oklahoma.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
​

57: 44-20-3​

44 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 39 of them are US States. The non-states: DC, Atlantic territories, Veterans Affairs, Federal Prisons and the Navajo Nation.

20 of those 50 Units reported deaths in double digits or more, from +10 to +147. 19 of those 20 of those Units are US States. The non-state: Veterans Affairs.

Of those 20 Units, 1 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths: Arizona, with +147, setting a new state record.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:​

​

57: 48-26-7-2
​

48 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths, with West Virginia having crossed over the 100-line on 2020-07-017. 44 of those 48 Units are US States. At 90 total deaths, North Dakota will soon cross over that marker. The 4 non-states with over 100 deaths: DC, Puerto Rico, Veterans Affairs and the Navajo Nation.

26 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 25 of those 26 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. Currently at 990 deaths, Rhode Island is next up to cross that line.

7 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +5,000 COVID-19 deaths. All 7 of them are states. Currently at 4,898 deaths and rising quickly, Florida will cross that line in the next days.

Out of all 57 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 142,877 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between 136,400-151,400:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of all of METARIE TERRACE, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

Right now, we are 3,082 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us more than 4 days ahead of the projection. This value is higher than the corresponding number from the corresponding weekday in June, shortly after the extrapolation began (2020-06-020, 1,785 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation at that time). If this continues, then the first milestone of August 2, 2020 moves up July 28, 2020.

-Stat

 

Something strange is going on today, all of a sudden. Here are the current numbers for the USA, within the last minutes:



As of right now, very few states have reported in, far fewer than the number that in the past has, until now, submitted data by 6 PM my time in Germany, 4PM over at WorldOMeter and 11 AM on the East Coast of the USA:



With 38 states, DC and 3 of the other 5 non-states to report in, right now, the USA has only added +7,702 cases, which, under normal circumstances, would be cause for great joy, but apparently, for some reason, the data for a number of states is being delayed.

Last Sunday by 6 PM my time, the USA has already logged at least +25,000 new cases and at least 200 deaths - just for comparison purposes. Usually, Florida would have reported in by now. It has not.

I wonder if the White House directive that all hospitals must first report their data to HHS before it goes to the CDC is playing a role in this? Or is this just a one-day fluke?

If they think they can hide the numbers, they are gravely mistaken. The truth has an uncanny way of getting known.

I will keep you all posted on today's developments.

 

Ok, this is kind of funny considering what I just posted, but nonetheless worth reporting:

On Sunday, 2020-07-019, the great state of Florida has reported +12,478 new COVID-19 cases and +84 new deaths. Florida, which just passed over the 300,000 case mark four days ago, now stands at 350,047 total C19 cases to date, rank 3, behind California (384,968, but not reported in yet today) and New York (433,314, but not yet reported in today). Florida is currently -34,921 cases behind California and -83,267 cases behind New York.

Even with Florida now reporting in, the USA is still very slow on this Sunday in reporting numbers, the slowest I have seen in a long, long time.

Just a reminder: on 2020-06-022, Florida crossed over the 100,000 line and it is entirely possible (but not probable) that Florida could cross over the 400,000-line on 2020-07-022, one month later. Likely, it will fall short of 400,000 and cross over on 2020-07-023, 024 at the very latest. But this really does mean that Florida will have added almost 300,000 C19 cases in just one month's time.

 

I am very confident Florida will be able to rush to the head of the table. They have tried so hard, they should not be denied, it would be so unfair.

Bunker Boys to the Front

 

Florida just reported another 12K day. What are those people doing, rubbing their snot all over each other or something?

 

INDIA​

With +39,135 new C19 cases reported thus far today, 2020-07-019, India is pushing hard toward the +40,000-mark and without a doubt could become the 2nd hottest hotspot in the world after the USA, moving Brasil to rank 3 in daily cases.

Look at this enormous upward progression in +new cases just over the last 3 weeks:



Just three weeks ago, on 2020-06-028, India reported just under +20,000 new cases and back then (ancient history, nöööö) it was a sensation. Today, three weeks later, the daily load has doubled. If it doubles again in 3 weeks, then we are knocking on the door to +80,000 cases in India. The weekly averages and the 7-day rolling averages are also proving the point, in both the daily cases and, unfortunately, also in the daily death average.

-Stat

Pretty steep stuff.

 

Sunscreen.

 

South Africa has reported +13,449 new COVID-19 cases today, 2020-07-019 (not far from the US-state of Florida's daily haul of +12,478, nööööö), bringing its C19 total to 364,328, thus placing it far enough above Peru that it is going to be rank 5 and Peru, Rank 6 for a while.

The two nations most likely to next enter the +5-digit-zone in daily C19 cases: Peru and Mexico. By the end of August, the world will probably have at least 6 nations posting well more than +10,000 per day.

Among the 'smaller' nations, keep your eyes on Israel (which is getting hammered right now), Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Bangladesh and Malaysia.

You don't get to over +220,000 C19 cases per day only with the USA, Brasil, India and South Africa. Lots of other nations have picked up the pace, presumably because they are now able to expand testing, but also probably because there is a rise in positivity overall.

 

Update: India has now increased today's daily load to +40,153. It will be in tomorrow's analysis. India has advanced from +10,000 to +40,000 far faster than the USA or Brasil did. That's an important detail to note, imo.

 

When I have the time, I like to report these things (like India or South America) in live-time, if possible, because we really do have a massive pandemic going on around us and I think it's too easy for people to forget that we are all interconnected to each other, whether people want to admit it, or not.

 

Will Donald declare victory when India passes the US? Sure we've lost a few people, but look at India. Great job.

 

It is indeed an interconnected world and the cat's out of the bag. I never said I wanted to go back to the 1800's(despite how that would actually help right about now in terms of travel and cases.). All I want is for allies and friends to treat us fairly. Neither here or there, but the virus definitely affirms the long term value of an interconnected agency that's dependable and reliable.

 

New cases; 12,478
Number of tests; 51,200
Positivity rate; 24.37%

5 day average positivity rate ; 20.88%

Florida’s average positivity rate since surge date (June 8th); 16.21%

 

It defies all reason.

Is the state peopled by halfwits? Seriously .. this late in the game we all know how to behave. This should not be happening.