Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Most people are bias thinkers, and in this forum, evidently, a great majority of posters are bias thinkers.

When I attended university, 82 students enrolled in Professor’s Miller Critical thinking Course.

Miller’s introduction main points;

1. Unbiased reasoning leads to an unbiased conclusion.

2. Out of 82 students, less than five students will end up practicing critical thinking on a daily basis.

3. Practice increases your skills and abilities.

In other words, universities do not transform their students to an ARISTOTLE.

However, one does not need to be an Aristotle to unbiasedly analyze Trump’s tweets.

Yesterday, Trump tweeted the following;

“For the 1/100 time, the reason we show so many cases, compared to other countries that haven’t done nearly as well as we have, is that our testing is much bigger and better. If we did 20 million, cases would be half, etc. NOT REPORTED!”

Yep, Trump actually tweeted “For the 1/100 time”, and mathematically, 1/100 equates to; 0.01

Quote; “compared to other countries that haven’t done nearly as well as we have”

RATIONALE; Compared to the U.S., a majority of Covid19 affected nations have done a better job at flattening their curves, thus, they’ve significantly lowered their daily new cases/number of hospitalizations, and daily deaths.

Quote; “If we did 20 million, cases would be half”

OBVIOUSLY, Trump’s University Math Department was severly underfunded.

To his loyalists, here’s an unexplainable occurrence;

From April 24th to Jun 15th, we’ve increased testing from 5M to 20M, and same time period, our new daily cases were halved. ??????????

Last; Trump keeps ignoring two indisputable facts;

a. Covid19 related hospitalizations have drastically increased, and

b. Covid19 Daily Deaths have drastically increased.

 

Well, I see you went to sleep, despite me telling you not to do that nonsense, the numbers went up quiet a bit, even in CO, that's the 4th of weekend showing up.
Have a nice week end and keep that Schnutten Pulli handy.

 

I promise to stay up next time, gelle

 

Worth reading:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mississippi-lawmakers-coronavirus-outbreak_n_5f09998bc5b63a72c3424331

 

Once again, the US state of Florida has reported more than +10,000 new C19 cases.

Right now, 13 states are appearing on the +1,000 list. Surprising is that the state of Arkansas is among them.

 

The danger of getting used to it, Schnutten Pulli alone ain't doing the trick, if you are a hugging and not staying 6 feet apart.

 

Don't you dare to fall asleep again.
Florida and all the other 2 thousand plus States have lost the fight, out of control.
It is like NY in April.

Only a fast lock down will stop it and that will not happen.
But look at the bright side, if the US keeps on piling it on, Bunker Boy, will loose his bunker.

 

THAT’S COMPARABLE TO HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE, SO IT’S IMPRESSIVE: Remdesivir cuts COVID-19 death risk by 62%, drugmaker says.

 

So COVID parties are a real thing, now. If you remember, @Statistikhengst has a neighbor whose son went to a COVID party and died.

Well, this idiotic trend is now going on in the states. SMH

https://abc7ny.com/covid-party-19-death-coronavirus/6312899/

 

Posted this in the wrong thread.
I'm not sure I want to cry WOOF, but I do think a couple of YIPS might be in order.
We all hear on TV that cases are going up, but today the percent positives also ticked up by almost a point.


This is starting to look like the hotspot smiley faces.

This move is a little different than we have been seeing because our normal hot spots are not totally to blame.





What seems to have happened is the rest of the South is starting to light up.


Maybe Stat will shed more light on this.
I sure hope we are right to put all our eggs in the mask basket.

 

It's not just masks. It's social distancing, keeping bars closed and limiting crowd gatherings. What else is there without closing businesses again?

In my state (Mississippi), the governor has ordered face masks to be mandatory for everyone entering any business and for employees, too. That applies to 13 counties seeing spikes and goes into force Monday. Some cities already have such ordinances.

Right now the big issue is re-opening schools. Down here schools open in about 3 weeks. Different districts are coming up with different protocols. Regardless, schools could be the source of a new spike. We won't know if the protocols are sufficient until we try it.

Fingers crossed is about all we've got.

 

Generally speaking it doesn't seem to be a good idea to add another variable while you are still trying to get the last one back under control. But that's just me.

 

Well, it's gonna happen, like it or not. Some parents can't go to work if the kids aren't in school so that puts pressure on the schools re-opening.

We knew this was coming. There was a window of opportunity to get this under control and we collectively blew it.

I agree that schools re-opening are another variable/risk factor; a huge one.

On another note, Disney opened 2 of its 4 parks in Orlando this weekend.

 

And they were the last of the parks to open in Orlando.

On another note, Florida is exceeding 10,000 new cases/day, and we have been since approximately two weeks after we flew Florida's doors wide open.

Go team!

 

I did not know that, but yeah, seems obvious when I think of it.

There's no way these parks should be open with the virus circulating so broadly.

 

Don't those Covidiots realize that they are then RESPONSIBLE for the SPREAD of the virus AFTER they are infected with it?

Sad!

 

Good morning, PFers!

For concision's sake and also having noted that with time, the numerous disclaimers at the top of the large worldwide/USA analyses are building a wall of text, I'm storing the disclaimers all together in this posting and will link to it from future analyses as of today.

This particular wall of text is now gone:



Instead:

BIGLY ULTRA MEGA TOP-FLIGHT KING OF THE ROAD PERMANENT DISCLAIMER:​

If you want to see the analysis for the day before, then go to my sig-file, open the excel table and then tab that you want and click on the date you want. My sig-file is going to be here for a long, long time, but when the time comes that it is gone, then feel free to click HERE.

Rolling averages (daily cases / daily deaths): a 7-day rolling average system in effect as 2020-06-029.

Confirming/sorting the data for this analysis as you wish: go here: WORLDOMETER for today -or- here: WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

Value discrepancies: sometimes there are discrepancies in the +-values (new cases, new deaths) between my excel table and WorldOMeter. This is always and without exception because WorldOMeter changed totals out of the past, usually from one or two days before, after I wrote the analysis. This is happening more often as countries are revising figures more often. Either way, I stick with the + values on my excel table as they are the correct reflection of the numbers as I recorded them. I simply do not have time to be constantly hunting numerical "ghosts" out of the past. If the discrepancy is extreme, I will note it briefly.

Pertinent only to the USA: that country is analyzed in 57 Units instead of 50 states.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Saturday, 2020-07-011 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

֍** 12,833,460 **֍
+216,881 new C19 cases over the day before, second highest total to-date.
This was the 5th straight day/7th day overall of +200,000 or more daily cases.
There are 138 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 69 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 567,035 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,996 of them were on this day.
Rolling 7 day worldwide average: +208,751 new C19 cases and +4,882 deaths per day.
968 Brazilian, 732 US-American, 665 Mexican, 543 Indian & 194 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The last 19 days in a row saw more than +160,000 cases per day and within those days, 7 days brought (non-consecutively) more than +200,000 new daily cases, a trend that I expect will continue. I would say that it's a certainty that going under +180,000 cases a day is now a thing of the past, +190,000 cases or more per day (see: rolling average) is the norm right now and soon enough, +210,000 per day will the norm. You can see that the rolling 7-day average of +208,751 is already closer to +210,000 than to +200,000. Now it remains to be seen if it stays there. I suspect that our world will be in the +195,000 to +225,000 zone for a while. Saturday was really not much of a let-up from Friday. I consider this to be a bad sign for the future. If Sunday does not let up, then I would say that a real acceleration of infections across the entire planet is now underway.

There is a 2,141 +case disparity, all having to do with the USA. See: DISCLAIMER

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

The number of daily deaths on the Saturday currently being analysed surpassed the 4 Saturday before before, showing a steady Saturday climb in daily deaths. The daily deaths 7-day rolling average has been rising nominally every day since 2020-07-002.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +450 C19 cases and above):
​

138-69-37-21-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 138 nations in the "thousand club". Liberia, Uruguay, Zimbabwe and Georgia are up next to cross over that line, not necessarily in that order.

Of those 138, 69 nations are now in the "10,000 club". Kyrgyzstan, Kenya, Australia, El Salvador and Venezuela are up next to cross over that line, not necessarily in that order.

Of those 69 nations, 37 are now in the "50,000 club". Portugal and Singapore are currently the closest to the 50,000 mark, but Bolivia, Panama and the Dominican Republic are all three growing far more daily cases and will likely get there first.

21 of those 37 nations are at at 100,000 or more. At 97,509 and growing well over +2,000 cases per day, Argentina is up next to cross over the 100,000-line, probably today, 2020-07-012.

Of those 21, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil.

India (currently: 850,358 cases), which surpassed Russia in the total number of COVID-19 cases 6 days ago, is already just under +130,000 cases ahead of Russia. Life comes at you fast. That being said, Russia now has over 720,547 total C19 cases, no small change, indeed. Therefore, three days ago, I extrapolated when the USA, Brasil, India and Russia will likely cross over the next available "million" line. The link is at the top of this analysis, but here again that link:

Extrapolations: top 4 countries (next million mark), posted 2020-07-009, 12:45 GMT +2, #11042.

India is exceeding the extrapolation, having recorded over +27,500 new cases for two days in a row. This means that India will cross over 1 million C19 cases earlier than I first thought. Brasil, on the other hand, is pretty much on schedule to break over the next million barrier. And the USA? The way things are getting out of control there, I probably should not have even attempted an extrapolation....

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

75-35-25-4​

75 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 77.

35 countries had +500 or more cases. The day before, it was 39.

25 countries had +1,000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 24.

And finally, 4 nations had over +10,000 new cases: USA, Brasil, India & South Africa. The day before, it was 3. This is the fifth time that South Africa has gone over the +10,000-line, non-consecutively. This time, with +13,497, it is now far enough above +10,000 for two days in a row that shortly, it will be staying above that line for a good, long time, I predict. @Derideo_Te

The USA did not go over +70,000 cases for second day in a row, but it did go over +60,000 new C19 cases for the third time, far outstripping any other nation on Earth, including Brasil, which last month often surpassed the USA in daily cases and still surpasses the USA in daily deaths.

There can just be no doubt about it - in some corners of the world, with North, Middle and South America leading, C19 is advancing very quickly. But there are also signs that the Middle-East may become a true hotspot for COVID-19.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

87-39-21-11-1​

There are now 87 nations with 100 total deaths or more.

Of those 87, 39 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, with Algeria having crossed over the +1,000-line on 2020-07-011.

Of those 38, 21 have over +5,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, with Colombia and Ecuador having gone over the 5,000-line on 2020-07-011.

Of those 18, there are now 11 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

And finally, of those 11, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

Currently at 137,403 total deaths, the USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 24.23% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 24.32%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 71,492 total deaths, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average is: +1,018.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:​

You can see the top 11 nations, all over +100 daily deaths, for yourself, highighted in the screenshot above.

11 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 9 the day before). 6 of those 11 countries are from the Americas. .

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

32 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece and of them, with Colombia having crossed over the 1,000,000-line on 2020-07-011. 5 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK and India.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here.

To date: the USA has performed 41.8 million tests (800,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 22.8 million tests (400,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has now performed 4.6 million such tests.

Facit: on 2020-07-010, the world went from just under 12.62 million total C19 cases, jumping over 12.7 and 12.8 milion to land at 12.83 million cases. At this rate, we will go over 13 million C19 cases by or before the end of day today, Sunday, 2020-07-012.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is numerically picking up substantially. The huge increase in total cases will invariably, absent a working vaccine, cause the average daily deaths to rise substantially, probably within the next 8-16 days. I'm already seeing evidence of a nominal average rise in worldwide deaths, it's been happening since 2020-07-002, one week ago.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Saturday, 2020-07-011 (EOD = GMT +0):
THE USA "RELAXES" FROM +71,000 TO "ONLY" +63,000...

***3,355,646*** (26.15% of worldwide C19 total)
+63,860 new COVID-19 cases, the 2nd highest daily total to-date (20.15% of worldwide new cases).
In a row (+ or more): 17 days of +40,000, 6 days of +50,000.
3 non-consecutive days of +60,000, 1 stand-alone day of +71,000!
There are now 137,403 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA (24.23% of worldwide total deaths).
732 of them were recorded on this day (14.65% of worldwide daily deaths).
Rolling 7 day average = 59,982 new infections & 726 deaths per day.
1,490,446 people have recovered, 1,727,797 are still sick, 15,819 of them are in critical condition.
The recovered statistic is slowly improving: margin = -7.07% vs. active cases (was: -7.11%).​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

There is a 2,141 +case disparity in the worldwide and USA statistics between my excel table and WorldoMeter, meaning that all of the disparity has to do with the USA. See: DISCLAIMER

It's really quite a week in the USA, to put it mildly. We STARTED the week on Monday with the highest daily case-load up to that time, and that on a Monday after a holiday weekend. Both Monday an Tuesday saw more than +50,000 new C19 cases, apiece. On Wednesday and Thursday, we blew past the +60,000 barrier. Then, on Friday, and exceeding my estimates, the USA sailed past +70,000 new C19 cases. On Saturday, there was a reduction in +cases, but "only" to +63,000, which is still a huge number. So, now I am more curious than ever to see how Sunday will pan out this week.

You can see that the rolling average already shows more than +59,982 cases a day, which means advancing 1,000,000 cases in slightly more than 16.5 days each time, assuming we maintain the current rate. Since both Wednesday and Thursday were NOT the peak days this week, but rather, Friday, I am very curious to see how much COVID-19 relief we will see at the weekend, if any. This question will be answered today, Sunday, 2020-07-012.

The actual number of daily deaths reported on this day, +732, reflects an UPTICK in Saturday deaths in the USA over the last 4 Saturdays and is more than three times larger than the daily deaths from the Saturday directly before.

The real concern (and I have been writing this for almost two weeks now) here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 1-2 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, AZ, TX, CA and GA. Why 1-2 weeks? Because daily deaths are a lagging indicator. We are already seeing nominal evidence of this right now, but it's not held long enough to classify it as a trend.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

57: 56-47-43-20-9​

56 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 50 of those 56 Units are US States. However, at 343 and the only Unit under the 1,000-line, the Pacific Territories (Guam / Northern Mariana Islands) may take a while to get there.

47 out of 57 UNITS have over 5,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 42 of those 47 Units are US States. I've opened up +5,000 as a rubrik since every Unit in the nation except one has cleared the +1,000 mark.

43 of the UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases, with Idaho having crossed over the 10,000-line on 2020-07-012. 40 of those 43 Units are states. The non-states: DC, Veterans Affairs and the US Military. Puerto Rico and US Federal Prisons are probably up next to cross over the 10,000-line.

Of those 42, 20 (all of them states) have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases.

Of those 20, 9 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases. At 99,229 cases, Pennsylvania is next up to cross over the line, probably today, 2020-07-012, at the very latest, tomorrow.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:

​

57: 54-41-13​

54 of 57 Units reported at least one new case. 48 of those 54 Units are states.

41 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 38 of those 41 Units were states. The non-states were: Veterans Affairs, Puerto Rico, Federal Prisons.

13 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases (the day before, it was 13), all of them being states. Florida lead the day and recorded over +10,000 new cases, Texas was slightly over +8,000, California was slightly under +8,000, the rest were at +3,000 or below. Both Ohio and Illinois were in the mix once again. For the first time I can remember, Arkansas joined the +1,000 category. 9 of those 13 Units are from the Deep South.

So, having gone over +60,000 on Thursday, over +71,000 on Friday and over +63,000 on Saturday, all eyes are now on Sunday to see if something as "low" as +50,000 is even possible these days.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

57: 42-21-2​

42 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 39 of them are US States. The 3 non-states: Veteran Affairs, Western Territories and Navajo Nation.

21 of 57 Units reported deaths in double digits or more, from +11 to +104. 19 of those of those 21 Units are US States. The non-states: Veterans Affairs, Navajo Nations.

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 0 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

57: 47-25-7-2
​

47 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 43 of those 47 Units are US States. At 96 and 87 total deaths respectively, West Virginia, and North Dakota will soon cross over that marker. The 4 non-states with over 100 deaths: DC, Puerto Rico, Veterans Affairs and the Navajo Nation.

25 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 24 of those 25 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. Currently at 976 and 951 deaths, respectively, Rhode Island and South Carolina are approaching +1,000-death line and will likely cross over it within the month of July, 2020.

7 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +5,000 COVID-19 deaths. All 7 of them are states.

Out of all 57 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 137,403 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities. Here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between 136,400-151,400:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of ALL of MIRAMAR, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

Right now, we are 2,508 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us just over 3.5 days ahead of the projection. This value is higher than the corresponding number from the corresponding Tuesday in June, shortly after the extrapolation began (2020-06-013, 2,232 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation at that time).

-Stat

 

The great state of IDAHO: flashbacks in time, each month, to April, 2020.

So, here is how things looked in Idaho on 2020-04-011:



(I used the Wayback Machine to get this info). At the end of day on 2020-04-011, Idaho had +11 new C19 cases and +2 new deaths on that day, bringing the state to +1,407 total cases and 27 total deaths.

Forwarding in time one month to 2020-05-011:




At the end of day on 2020-05-011, Idaho had +30 new C19 cases and +3 new deaths on that day, bringing the state to +2,260 total cases and 70 total deaths.
That's almost 3 times as many new cases as one month before. The statewide total was somewhat less than double the total from the month before, but the death total has increased 3-fold.

Forwarding in time one month to 2020-06-011:




At the end of day on 2020-06-011, Idaho had +42 new C19 cases and +1 new deaths on that day, bringing the state to +3,302 total cases and 86 total deaths.
That's about 1/3 as many new cases as one month before. The statewide total about 1/3 over the total from the month before and the deaths increased by only +16. In other words, there was slow growth in Idaho from May to June, 2020.

Now, fasten your seatbelts. Forwarding to yesterday, 2020-07-011:






At the end of day on 2020-06-012, Idaho had +577 new C19 cases and +1 new deaths on that day, bringing the state to +10,505 total cases and 102 total deaths.
That's about 14 times as many new cases as one month before and +14 more deaths, bringing the statewide total to about three times over the total from the month before. In other words, massive growth in Idaho from June to July, 2020.

Over three months' time, from April to July, Idaho's caseload has increased almost 8-fold.

Yes, indeed, COVID-19 is also flourishing in blue-sky country.

-Stat

 

You know what they say. "Spread the joy."

 

Chile is interesting.
Over 300,000 cases, but under 7000 fatalities.

 

2020-07-012, Sunday:
The US state of Florida has just recorded a record-smashing +15,300 new COVID-19 infections, higher than New York on its very worst day. +15,300, from just one state, on just one single day, and on a Sunday, to boot. So much for weekends slowing down.

This now officially shifts the epicenter of the virus from New York to Florida, but at the rate that things are developing in Texas and Arizona, that "honor" may be short-lived.

Florida went over the 100,000-line on 2020-06-022, 13 days ago. Florida now stands at 269,811 cases. It advanced almost 270,000 cases in less than two weeks time.

We are living in truly horrible times.

 

I will shed light. The bolded: it is.