Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

This has nothing to do with me or my "thing".

Attacking another person by associating characteristics to that person, whether justified or not, are neither a part of debate nor are they a part of information exchange.

Doing what you are doing is nothing more than trolling, which is not in accord with PF rules.

This is my last appeal to you: read the OP and learn what this thread is about.

STRIKE ONE.

 

HERE the entire posting for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before.

During the run of the day on 2020-06-022, there was one other important analysis:
USA EOD report for 2020-06-021, posted 2020-06-022, 12:28 GMT +2, #10363.

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Monday, 2020-06-022 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

*********9,180,875*********
+141,938 cases today over yesterday.
This week will be the last week with the worldwide total cases in the 7-digit-number zone.
There are now 126 nations with at least 100 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 473,484 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +3,880 of them were on this day.
1,044 Mexicans, 748 Brazilians, 363 US-Americans and 312 Indians died on this day.
The +12% positive margin between "recovered" and "still-ill" cases continues to grow.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
​

We have now seen 22 straight days of +100,000 or more new C-19 cases per day and you can extend that statistic out to 26 out of that last 27 days, save 2020-05-031. 6 of the last 7 days saw more than +140,000 new C19 cases per day. In other words, every single day in June 2020 has seen +100,000 (or far more) daily cases and the probability is extremely high that when all is said and done, every single day in the month of June, 2020 will have seen over +100,000 cases per day.

Further, the daily new cases for 2020-06-022 far exceeded any Monday on record thus far, indicating a week that is going to be far heavier than even last week was, and last week was really an eye-opener. The number of daily deaths worldwide on this Monday exceeded the two Mondays before but was less than three Mondays before.

Note: there is a 2,963 case disparity between my + number and the + number at WorldOMeter. This is because they increased the daily total for the day before, 2020-06-021, by +2,963 after I wrote the analysis for that date. I simply point out these disparities and why they happened. Lots of nations have revised figures after the fact and WorldOMeter seems to be doing a very capable job of identifying the changes and logging them. However, I do not have time to be re-analyzing stuff from the past. Whether the +number for 2020-06-021 goes up by +2,963 from my recorded +130,382 to +133,345 and then my recorded + number for today moves down by 2,963 from +141,938 to +138,975 or the numbers stay as I have them is now irrelevant. Either way, those 2,963 cases (presumably from more than one nation, but neither the USA nor Brazil nor Russia nor India) have been accounted for and %ually, it's a small shift. This is why I don't knock my head against a wall when WorldOMeter's retroactively changes numbers from the past UPWARD. I would be far more concerned were they to regularly adjust numbers from the past DOWNWARD.

The weekly average in daily cases for last week was: +150,696 per day, a massive jump over 2 weeks ago, which was +128,838 per day.

The weekly average in daily deaths for this week was: +4,917, a sharp rise over 2 weeks ago, which reflected an average of +4,300 deaths per day.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +700 C19 cases and above):
​

Note: the countries highlighted in green this time around are some of the nations I am tracking in my "Future Upperdecks" series.

126-65-19-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 126 nations in the "thousand club", with Congo and the Palestinian National Authority (here named "Palestine") having both crossed over the 1,000 line. Also interesting is that both had major case jumps (+204 and +168, respectively). At 988, 967, 944, 908 and 903, respectively, Cyprus, Yemen, Cabo Verde, Georgia and Burkino Faso are next up to cross over the 1,000 line. Cabo Verde is one on the nations in my "future upperdecks" series.

Of those 126, 65 nations are now in the "10,000 club", with Morroco having crossed over the 1,000 line on 2020-06-022.

19 of those 65 nations are now at 100,000 or more, with South Africa having crossed over the 10,000 line on 2020-06-022. @Derideo_Te

Of those 19, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil. At 592,290 C19-cases, Russia would seem to be next, but India, currently at 440,450 C19-cases, is growing cases twice as quickly as Russia and will very likely get there first. In the month of July, 2020, India will surpass Russia in the number of total cases and then hold rank 3 for a good, long while. At or before that time, I will open up an excel tab just for India.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

67-19-3​

67 countries had +100 or more new cases, 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 69. Of those 69, 19 countries had +1000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 20. If you look at the list of top cases, you will see that they come from all over the world, but the Europe is the least represented on that upper list.

Of those 19, 3 nations had over +10,000 cases: The USA lead in new cases over Brazil, then India at rank 3. This has been going on for days now. The top three nations accounted for 69,394 (circa 48.9%) of all of the cases throughout the world on 2020-06-022.

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:

80-36-8-1​

There are now 80 nations with 100 total deaths or more, with El Salvador having crossed over the 100-line on 2020-06-022. At 99, 90, 88, 86, 85 and 85 current total deaths respectively, Quatar, Somalia, Haiti, Senegal, Ghana and Cuba are next to cross over the line, probably all 6 in the next 2-3 days.

Of those 80, 36 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. There 12 nations between 500-1000 total deaths. The numbers for Japan and Austria are barely moving, but they are for the other 10 and you can be guaranteed that in the last 8 days of this month, many of them will have gone over this gruesome marker.

Of those 36, there are now 8 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

And finally, of those 8, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:



Mexico, Brazil, USA, India, Peru and Iran lead with the most daily deaths, all over +100 daily deaths.

6 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 10 the day before). 4 of those 6 countries are from the Americas.

If you look back at the major European hotspot countries from March/April/part of May, there can be no doubt that the wave that hit Europe is mostly receding, the outliers being both the UK (which was slow to respond) and off and on, Sweden (which decided to ignore conventional wisdom and do directly for herd immunity). Germany has detected two hotspots and immediately locked-down the entire area. Also, after more than 2 weeks with no daily deaths at all, Spain reported 1 death on 2020-06-022.

I would just like to remind about this series I have running, for which there will be large analysis at the end of June, 2020:

"Future Upperdecks" Series, #1: Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Mauritania and Malawi, posted 2020-05-030, 19:00 GMT +2, #9612.
And "Future Upperdecks" Series, #2 (7 other nations). It's all explained at the links. A halfway-point update was just released:

Future Upperdecks #1 and #2: the halfway point, posted 2020-06-014, 09:39, #10104.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 25 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Usbekistan having crossed over the 1,000,000 line on 2020-06-022:



The USA has now performed 29.0 million tests (500,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 17.3 million tests (300,000 more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections and in terms of total deaths, has performed 2.4 million such tests.

Facit: on 2020-06-022, the world sailed +141,000 new C19 cases from 9.04 to 9.18 million total C19 cases. We are easily on our way to 10 million confirmed C19 cases by the end of June 2020.

Now at 122,610 total deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. A new extrapolation indicated 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running. Brazil, currently at 51,407 total deaths and growing around 1,000 deaths per day, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is picking up slightly. It is still logistical, but there is a noticeable increase in overall daily C19 cases. That being said, new hotspots are verifiably emerging.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

In the analysis for 2020-06-021, I explained moving from analysing the USA in terms of 50 States to 57 "Units". You can read the rationale for this in that analysis.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Monday, 2020-06-022 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

**2,388,153**
+31,496 cases today over the day before.
Seven days in a row of +25,000 or more new cases, for the first time ever.
New record: both CA and TX record more than +5,000 new C19-cases apiece.
122,610 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA.
363 Americans died from COVID-19 on this day.
1,002,929 people have recovered, 1,262,614 are, however, still sick.
Over 1 million US-Americans have officially recovered from COVID-19.​

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

You can see that in terms of daily cases, this Monday are outstrips the last 4 Mondays before and is an indicator of a very heavy C19-week in the USA.
The number of daily deaths continues to sink, which is exceedingly good new. We can only hope that the sudden spike in new cases will not lead to an increase in daily deaths over the next 3-4 weeks.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed cases, descending:
​

Total confirmed C-19 cases:

57: 52-43-15-7​

52 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 47 of them are US States. At 816 or less C19 cases, it will be a while before the states of Hawaii, Alaska and Montana cross over this line, but I am very sure that in the fullness of time, they will. However, at 252, the pacific Territories may take more than a year to get there.

43 of the 52 UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases.

Of those 43, 15 have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases.

Of those 15, 7 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases, with Florida having crossed over the 100,000 line on 2020-06-022.

New daily cases:

​

57: 55-39-7​

55 of 57 Units at least one new case, 50 of those 55 being states. The 3 Units to report no new cases: the Pacific Territories and the US Virgin Islands.

39 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 37 of those 39 Units were states. The other two Units were: Veterans' Affairs (+841) and the US Military (+200).

7 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases, with 2 of them, CA and TX reporting above +5,000 cases, setting a very unwanted record.

If you go to the state links provided at WorldOMeter, you can see for yourself the distribution of new C19 cases among the top counties in each of those larger states.

New daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

57: 39-9-0​

39 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 35 of them are US States.

Of those 39, 9 reported deaths in double digits, from +12 to +53. All 9 of those Units are US States.

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 0 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths, and that for many, many days in a row. This means that the deaths are being more evenly spread throughout the Republic.

Total deaths:
​

57: 44-22-2
​

44 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 41 of those 44 Units are US States. At 90, 89, 81 and 77 total deaths respectively, WV, ID and both Dakotas will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 44, 22 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 21 of those 22 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. Now at 981 and 973, respectively, Missouri and Mississippi are likely next to cross over that gruesome line in the next days.

Of those 22 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 122,610 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between roughly 117,000-126,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of ALL of SHEEPSHEAD BAY, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not.

So, some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

For the first time in a long time, the weekly statistic for last week showed less than 700 deaths per day! Right now, we are 1,015 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts a little less than 1.5 days ahead of the projection. If this trend continues, then this extrapolation may not happen. That is incredibly good news!

-Stat

 

Oh, it's been awhile and I've slept since then!!! So, let me revise that: glad you are back!

 

Ancillary to the USA analysis from 2020-06-022, here the county-wide look for the three hardest-hit states on that day:

 

For 2020-06-023, the state of Arizona has reported a record high daily C19-case total of: +3,593.
Yesterday, Arizona reported +2,196.

 

Man alive, this virus is having a field day! Perhaps the demise of the human species at its hand is near?

Beam me up Scotty, but I might be an asymptomatic carrier.

 

What is wrong with you?

 

One thing we are seeing in the data, especially from Texas, Arizona, and Florida, is a dramatic shift in the demographics of those being infected. In all three places, the average age of those infected has fallen dramatically over the last week or two as thousands of young individuals are getting confirmed as infected.

Young people in the US South and West are increasingly getting coronavirus

 

We don't just follow up with this stuff, we start with it.

 

I know that you don't particularly care, but I think you should learn more about the mortality of this virus.

When a pandemic is ongoing, we need to estimate the mortality of the virus. One way to do that is to compare the daily death counts against the total resolved (i.e. deaths + recovered). I started to track that data for every country that passed 1,000 deaths. Over time, as those total resolved counts increase and the daily death counts continue to drop, eventually you start to see that percentage drop lower and lower.

Long ago, I decided that once a country managed to see eight consecutive days where the percentage was less than 0.1%, I would switch and compare the total resolved against the total deaths.

The United States, four days ago, met that particular metric, so where does the US mortality rate compared to the countries which have passed that metric. Here, they are, in order:

Russia: ~2.34% (LOL)
Turkey: ~3.01%
Germany: ~4.89%
China: ~5.58%
Iran: ~5.58%
Switzerland: ~6.36%
Portugal: ~6.34%
Ireland: ~7.02%
Romania: ~8.24%
United States: ~10.89%
Canada: ~11.71%
Italy: ~16.02%
France: ~28.59%
Belgium: ~36.68%

So here's the thing. That is the mortality rate of the virus amongst the confirmed cases. But it requires a fairly significant caveat because several States do not report their recoveries. Those States are CA, FL, GA, IL, MA, MO, OH, PR, and WA. So, we can estimate the recoveries by looking at the confirmed cases from one month ago to reach a very conservative estimate. Or we can say 80% of the confirmed from two weeks ago to reach a much more aggressive estimate.

If you use the more conservative estimate, the US mortality rate drops to ~8.91%. If you use the more aggressive estimate, the US mortality rate drops to ~8.29%.

 

It is not a surprise.
I expressed that possibility after Memorial day. Even our area with MC Phee reservoir and all the other lakes were swamped by out of staters.
Big parties and they continued week end after week end. Lake Powell and others were packed and still get packed every week end. That's why the Navajo Nation went again in total lock down over the week ends.
Trying to keep its people away from the passing through crowds from the south.

We have a rather unusual high amount of Texans in the county. They are getting out of there. I bet the next wave will come from Southern Arizona.

 

U.S. highest daily new cases; 39,072...April 24th

Today; 36,915




NOTE; In the April 18th press briefing, Trump emphasized that the U.S. had a better Death rate than the European nations hardest hit by Covid19.

Death per 100,000

1. Belgium.....45.20
2. Spain.....42.81
3. Italy.....37.64
4. France.....27.92
5. UK......21.97
6. Netherland.....20.14
7. U.S.....11.24

For anyone’s info, since said briefing, we’ve surpassed Netherland, and most likely, we will soon surpass France.

Death per 100,000.....June 23rd

1. Netherland......35.60
2. U.S......37.30
3. France.....45.50

Congratulations!

 

God. ****ing. Damnit.

 

Oh Oh.
Positives pop up to 7%. I hope we don't wait to long to do something. The further away from the shutdown we get the more people seem to think it is gone.

It still has the capability to jump right back up there and above.



Yet some of the early openers are staying pretty flat.

Of course if we get back up to 10% positives, no one will be happy.

 

HERE the entire posting for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before.

During the run of the day on 2020-06-023, there was one other important analysis plus on ancillary:
USA EOD report for 2020-06-022, posted 2020-06-023, 10:45 GMT +2, #10378.
Ancillary to USA EOD report for 2020-06-022, posted 2020-06-023, 12:43 GMT +2, #10380.

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Tuesday, 2020-06-023 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

*********9,345,569*********
+164,694 cases today over yesterday.
This week will be the last week with the worldwide total cases in the 7-digit-number zone.
There are 126 nations with at least 100 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 478,849 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,465 of them were on this day.
1,364 Brazilians, 863 US-Americans, 759 Mexicans and 468 Indians died on this day.
The +13% positive margin between "recovered" and "still-ill" cases continues to grow.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
​

We have now seen 23 straight days of +100,000 or more new C-19 cases per day and you can extend that statistic out to 27 out of that last 28 days, save 2020-05-031. 7 of the last 8 days saw more than +140,000 new C19 cases per day. In other words, every single day in June 2020 has seen +100,000 (or far more) daily cases and the probability is extremely high that when all is said and done, every single day in the month of June, 2020 will have seen over +100,000 cases per day.

Further, the daily new cases for 2020-06-023 far exceeded any Tuesday on record thus far and reflects the 3rd highest daily C19 case total overall, after 2020-06-019 and 2020-06-018, indicating a week that is going to be far heavier than even last week was, and last week was really an eye-opener. The number of daily deaths worldwide on this Tuesday was less than the Tuesday before but exceeded the three Tuesdays before that.

There is again a +case disparity between my excel table and WorldOMeter. Please read the analysis for yesterday for the explanation. It's pretty self-explanatory.

The weekly average in daily cases for last week was: +150,696 per day, a massive jump over 2 weeks ago, which was +128,838 per day.

The weekly average in daily deaths for this week was: +4,917, a sharp rise over 2 weeks ago, which reflected an average of +4,300 deaths per day.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +700 C19 cases and above):
​

Note: the countries highlighted in green this time around are some of the nations I am tracking in my "Future Upperdecks" series.

126-66-19-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 126 nations in the "thousand club". At 992, 990, 982, 911 and 907, respectively, Yemen, Cyprus, Cabo Verde, Georgia and Burkino Faso are next up to cross over the 1,000 line. But keep your eyes on Benin and Malawi, which are growing far more cases, they may get there first. You can see that between 982 and 797 cases, 5 of the nations in my "Future Upperdecks" series are highlighted.

Of those 126, 66 nations are now in the "10,000 club", with Nepal having crossed over the 10,000 line on 2020-06-023.

19 of those 66 nations are at 100,000 or more. Currently at 89,579 and growing between 1,500-2,000 cases per day, at this rate, Quatar will cross over the 100,000 at month's end. Wait and see.

Of those 19, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil. At 599,705 C19-cases, Russia would seem to be next, but India, currently at 456,115 C19-cases, is growing cases twice as quickly as Russia and will very likely get there first. In the month of July, 2020, India will surpass Russia in the number of total cases and then hold rank 3 for a good, long while. At or before that time, I will open up an excel tab just for India.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

74-23-3​

74 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 67. Of those 74, a record-breaking 23 countries had +1000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 19. If you look at the list of top cases, you will see that they come from all over the world, but the Europe is the least represented on that upper list, and in fact, if you don't consider Russia to be a European nation, then Europe is not in the top 23 at all.

Of those 19, 3 nations had over +10,000 cases: Brazil lead over the USA lead in new cases, with India at rank 3. This has been going on for days now. The top three nations accounted for 91,811 (circa 55.7%) of all of the cases throughout the world on 2020-06-023.

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:

80-36-8-1​

There are now 80 nations with 100 total deaths or more. At between 99-85 current total deaths respectively, Quatar, Ghana, Somalia, Senegal, Haiti and Cuba are next to cross over the line, probably all 6 in the next 2-3 days.

Of those 80, 36 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. There 12 nations between 500-1000 total deaths. The numbers for Japan and Austria are barely moving, but they are for the other 10 and you can be guaranteed that in the last 8 days of this month, many of them will have gone over this gruesome marker.

Of those 36, there are now 8 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date. At 9,863 total deaths, Iran is not far away from this gruesome milestone.

And finally, of those 8, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:



Brazil, USA, Mexico, India, UK, Peru, Russia, Iran, South Africa and Pakistan lead with the most daily deaths, all over +100 daily deaths.

10 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 10 the day before). 4 of those 10 countries are from the Americas.

If you look back at the major European hotspot countries from March/April/part of May, there can be no doubt that the wave that hit Europe is mostly receding, the outliers being both the UK (which was slow to respond) and off and on, Sweden (which decided to ignore conventional wisdom and do directly for herd immunity). Germany has detected two hotspots and immediately locked-down the entire area. Also, after more than 2 weeks with no daily deaths at all, Spain reported 1 death on 2020-06-023, for the second day in a row.

I would just like to remind about this series I have running, for which there will be large analysis at the end of June, 2020:

"Future Upperdecks" Series, #1: Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Mauritania and Malawi, posted 2020-05-030, 19:00 GMT +2, #9612.
And "Future Upperdecks" Series, #2 (7 other nations). It's all explained at the links. A halfway-point update was just released:

Future Upperdecks #1 and #2: the halfway point, posted 2020-06-014, 09:39, #10104.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 25 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece:



The USA has now performed 29.6 million tests (600,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 17.5% million tests (200,000 more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections and in terms of total deaths, has performed 2.5% million such tests.

Facit: on 2020-06-023, the world sailed almost +165,000 new C19 cases up to 9.35 million total C19 cases. And remember, we just broke over the 9 million line on 2020-06-023, so we have gained +306,632 cases in just 2 days time. We are easily on our way to 10 million confirmed C19 cases by the end of June 2020.

Now at 123,473 total deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. The USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 25% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA. A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 52,771 total deaths and growing around 1,000 deaths per day, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. Brazil's calculated average from last week was +1,039 so very likely, between July 31st and August 15th of this year, this will happen.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is picking up slightly. It is still logistical, but there is a noticeable increase in overall daily C19 cases. That being said, new hotspots are verifiably emerging.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

In the analysis for 2020-06-021, I explained moving from analysing the USA in terms of 50 States to 57 "Units". You can read the rationale for this in that analysis.

You can confirm/sort the data for the following analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Tuesday, 2020-06-023 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

**2,424,168**
+36,015 cases today over the day before.
Eight days in a row of +25,000 or more new cases, for the first time ever.
Further, four of the last five days had +30,000 or more C19 cases, a record.
At +6,503 new daily cases, California sets HUGE record, far above the rest.
123,473 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA; 863 of them died on this day.
1,020,381 people have recovered, 1,280,314 are, however, still sick.
​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

You can see that in terms of daily cases, this Tuesday far, far, far outstrips the last 4 Tuesdays before and is an indicator of a very heavy C19-week in the USA.

The number of daily deaths rose this time over the Tuesday before, but only marginally. The real concern here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 3-4 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, GA, TX, AZ and CA.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed cases, descending:
​

Total confirmed C-19 cases:

57: 52-40-15-7​

52 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 47 of them are US States. At 819 or less C19 cases, it will be a while before the states of Hawaii, Alaska and Montana cross over this line, but I am very sure that in the fullness of time, they will. However, at 256, the pacific Territories may take more than a year to get there.

40 of the 52 UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases. Currently at 7,274 cases, Oregon may be next, but it will take a while. This kind of thing tends to happen in spurts: a bunch of Units (mostly, states) will slowly get close to a milestone and within days, they all jump over said milestone.

Of those 43, 15 have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. Ohio and Connecticut are likely to go over the 50,000 line in the next 5-6 days.

Of those 15, 7 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases.

New daily cases:

​

57: 56-40-6​

56 of 57 Units at least one new case, 50 of those 55 being states. The only unit to report no new cases: the US military

40 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 38 of those 40 Units were states. The other two Units were: Puerto Rico (+121) Veterans' Affairs (+405).

6 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases, with 2 of them, CA and TX reporting above +6,000 and +5,000 cases respectively. Georgia and Louisiana are also among those 6. At a jaw-dropping +6,503 new C19 cases, California's "haul" on 2020-06-023 would have placed it at rank 5 on the WORLDWIDE rankings, after Brazil, the USA (of which CA is a part), India and Russia!

Here, descending by county, CA, TX and FL:

New daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

57: 44-28-0​

44 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 42 of them are US States.

Of those 39, 28 reported deaths in double digits, from +10 to +69. 27 of those 28 Units are US States. This day shows BY FAR the most even spread of dying within the Union. And for the first time ever, Delawar lead in daily deaths, followed closely by California.

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 0 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths, and that for many, many days in a row. This and what I just mentioned above means that the deaths are being more evenly spread throughout the Republic.

Total deaths:
​

57: 44-22-2
​

44 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 41 of those 44 Units are US States. At 92, 89, 83 and 78 total deaths respectively, WV, ID and both Dakotas will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 44, 22 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 21 of those 22 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. Now at 995 and 989, respectively, Missouri and Mississippi are likely next to cross over that gruesome line either today or tomorrow.

Of those 22 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 123,473 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between roughly 117,000-126,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of almost ALL of HARTFORD, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not.

So, some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

For the first time in a long time, the weekly statistic for last week showed less than 700 deaths per day! Right now, we are 1,178 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts a little more than 1.5 days ahead of the projection. If this trend continues, then this extrapolation may not happen. That is incredibly good news!

-Stat

 

Reminds me of this comment by Churchill.

 

What is wrong with you?

 

So, over the last many weeks, Wednesdays and Thursdays have been the peak days of the week, both in terms of newly recorded COVID-19 infections and in daily deaths.

The worldwide numbers for both Monday and Tuesday of this current week have already surpassed the corresponding days in the week before, so today and tomorrow are likely to be a wild ride for those who are following the C19 statistics. I'm not making a prediction yet, but we may soon see a day where the world jumps +200,000 C19 cases in one day, something that would have been absolutely unthinkable just 2 months ago.

Some other nations now coming into view (not necessarily in order of intensity): Bangladesh, Chile, Peru, Columbia, Argentina, South Africa, Oman and Quatar. Quatar is especially interesting, since it is, I believe, the richest nation on the Earth and also has a very small population. But Quatar is getting hammered pretty heavily right now. And it looks very much as if South and Middle America are now in full upswing.

We may see a number of very new (and some unexpected) hotspots appearing in the next 14 days.

Nations that are receding in terms of C19 misery: Canada, Spain, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, France, but not the UK or Sweden.

I personally see a real problem of new and practically untraceable infection chains starting up all over the place as the airline industry starts to pick up again, also, as contact sports start again.

-Stat

 

First cases in point:

Mexico has just reported +6,288 new C19 cases +793 daily deaths. Yesterday, it was +4,577 new C19 cases +759 daily deaths.
Russia has just reported +154 daily deaths, 1 death more than yesterday's total of +153.

Little itty-bitty Armenia just recorded +711 new C19 cases. It's positivity rate (infections/total adminstered tests)= 21%.
And our ally Ukraine has once again, just as almost every day, recorded a little over +900 new C19 cases. I noted the Ukraine when it went over the +1000 mark in total cases. The nation now has 39,000 cases.... and climbing, climbing, climbing...

 

"As the airline industry starts to pick up again?" Wait...what? Say that again? The very LAST thing that needs to pick up again is the airline industry. At least if an asymptomatic person travels by car, they're only infecting themselves/people in the car with them. As you noted obviously, airlines are notorious for being able to infect people without contact tracing capabilities.

Airlines need to be grounded until further notice, and the POTUS should be aware of this and ban ALL commercial flights to and from the US.(as well as interstate travel obviously.)

 

Just think of them like small Trump rallies.
People think it's over. It's not.

 

I am an independent thinker, avoiding the herd when possible, including the herd mentality.

 

This type of carelessness by people is putting us in a Spanish flu type of situation(and yes, I'm aware there's uncertainty on whether it came from Spain or whatever, but the 'Spanish flu' is an easier way to identify that particular strain of the flu.)

We can't be cocky and think it's over, it's not.