Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

So across the spectrum, really - especially when you add in Jordan, Greece, Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, etc.

It comes down to strong leadership and a compliant populace ... irregardless of flavour.

 

I think the basic misunderstanding is that the masks are not 100%, but they are also not 0%.

This is not airborne. This is tiny droplets exiting your mouth while you talk. If you are wearing a mask, the droplet will face resistance and drop off sooner, preventing it from getting too close to someone you are talking to.

From experts, based on everything we know so far.

 

Not really, we need it to be a healthcare initiative that works on all levels, international, national and local.

 

Future Upperdecks #1 is HERE.
Future Upperdecks #2 is HERE.

I am posting this today BEFORE the EOD analyses for 2020-06-013 worldwide and for the USA.

"Future Upperdecks" Series #1 and #2: the halfway point for 11 nations​

You can use the two links at the very top to check back with Future Upperdecks #1 and #2, started on May 30th and May 31st with calculation start-dates of May 29th and May 30th, intended to run 28 full days based on the growth rate of the first day.

For the four nations listed in Future Upperdecks 1, 2020-06-013 was day 16. For the seven nations listed in Future Upperdecks 1, 2020-06-013 was day 15, the rough half-way point for all 11 nations.

So, here is how things are shaping up. First, screenshots from the online excel table, with 2020-06-013 highlighted, showing where each country should be were it to hold the growth rate in C19 cases listed on the first day of the study:





Next, the current totals from EOD on 2020-06-013:






And finally, a comparative (and self-explanatory) table of how things are shaping up thus far:


As you can see, in 8 of 11 cases, the current C19 total cases is not even close to the extrapolated number based on the growth rate listed for the first day of the study. But in one case, CABO VERDE, that country is actually slightly ahead of the extrapolation and may actually end up where the extrapolation put it. Also, in the case of LIBYA, which is currently only 86 cases behind the extrapolation, considering Libya's spotty reporting, it could very well end up that at the end of the 28 days, Libya ends up very close to where the calculations placed them. In the case of YEMEN, it is now 405 behind the extrapolation, but not so far as to not be able to catch up at all. Wait and see.

If you look at the extrapolated growth rates, you will see that all three of these nations have the lowest growth rates as basis-point for the study, so we could say, the lower the expectations, the easier it is to fullfill them.

That being said, since the study began, three of those nations have all crossed over the +1,000 line: Ethiopia, CAR (Central African Republican) and Mauritania and those three plus CABO VERDE have all surpassed the international conveyance "Diamond Princess" which, in the OP from 2020-03-014 (3 months ago today), as rank 16 on the list and is now rank 133. There is a good possibility that by the end of this study, Cabo Verde, Yemen, Uganda and perhaps, Malawi, will also cross over the 1,000 line.

A quote from future Upperdecks, no 1:

And a quite from future Upperdecks, no. 2:

So, actually, I'm kind of surprised that at least 2 of the 11 may actually either hit or come very close to the exponential target at the end of this study.

So, that's that for now, I will be referring back to this when the study is complete, on 2020-06-028 and 2020-06-029.

-Stat

 

Wearing masks anywhere where people gather or have gathered GREATLY reduces transmission, even more importantly, if reduces the transmission of YOUR aerosols to other people. Therefore, if every person acts as if her or she is infected and acts accordingly, then we can kill this thing off.

Yes, in large parks where there are no people far and wide and the wind is blowing, there is no need at that moment for a mask. But as soon as people come into your vicinity, the mask should go on.

It's not a political statement. It's a PROVEN medical technique for drastically reducing the transmission of diseases that are transmitted through the air. Ric, it's really that simple.

Also, there are some pretty massive COVID-19 outbreaks in rural areas, far away from large cities.

 

Sorry DT, I agree. I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Until human nature changes anyway. Money and piwer get I the way.

 

Since we are tracking Deaths related to Covid19 and we now have both more data and more information about how the virus functions I would like to put a little context into where our tracking might be heading.

Some of the Death data shows the discrepancy between what are the normal anticipated deaths per day and the increase over that number during the Pandemic. Not all of those deaths are specifically caused by the virus since some are from a lack of medical resources redirected to deal with the virus. In addition we are seeing significant numbers of health care workers becoming infected and dying.

Those are Deaths that we are measuring because they are happening NOW!

However there are other deaths that will occur because of the virus at some future point in time and that is because the virus does cause long term harm that may not be apparent to those who were/are/will be infected and asymptomatic.

Initially it was assumed that Covid19 was just a respiratory virus and treated accordingly since it belonged to the SARS viral family. However Covid19 is presenting atypical symptoms that are not only respiratory in nature. Just as background viruses "specialize" with the flu/cold being respiratory while chickenpox/shingles attack the nervous system and West Nile/Zika viruses attack the brain. Covid19 appears to attack the vascular system given our current level of knowledge.

https://vascularnews.com/new-study-shows-covid-19-causes-blood-vessel-damage/

The problem with these blood clots is that they can remain dormant for long periods of time until something causes them to come loose and then they can block blood vessels in other areas of the body. For 5 years I was misdiagnosed as having Sciatica which became worse as time went on. Eventually I became fed up with the lack of progress and asked the specialist point blank why they had NEVER looked at the origin of the pain? Masses of X-rays and tests on my spine and leg but not once in those 5 years had they looked at my hip where all the pain was. So an MRI was performed and this is what I saw.

Not my actual MRI but it illustrates the problem. On the RHS you can see a normal femoral head and on the LHS you can see the damage caused by AVN which stands for Avascular Necrosis. What that means is that the blood supply to the femoral head was cut off and the bone began to die. As the bone dies it necrotizes which causes all of the surrounding tissues to become inflamed. Just sitting for 5 minutes caused excruciating pain and a hip replacement removed the cause but the inflammation in the surrounding tissue is still there a decade later albeit less painful now.

One small blood clot caused all that damage and pain and it can occur in virtually any bone in your body if you have clots in your blood vessels. That kind of ongoing pain can cause depression and addiction to pain killers and eventually suicide especially when it is misdiagnosed.

My reason for mentioning all of the above is that I think that we are going to see an increase in Deaths per Day from all causes in the post Pandemic period. More heart attacks, strokes, suicides, overdoses, etc, etc because undiagnosed and untreated vascular diseases are likely to occur among those who are Asymptomatic with Covid19.

This virus could effectively shorten our life spans even if we never had any symptoms and that is why it is so vital that we do our utmost to deny it any more hosts.

The final death toll from Covid19 might never to fully accounted for no matter how much tracking we do now but we would be foolish to underestimate what the long term impact this can have on all of us in the future.

Take care and stay safe.

 

No need to apologize, Sally, we agree that the problem is money and power.

However when the message sinks in to money and power that the virus can kill them too then maybe money will not longer be an obstacle.

 

The hard work of tracking that so many have been doing in this thread has been enlightening and rewarding in terms of giving us a handle on what is happening with Covid19.

However there are still places in the world where little to nothing is known and that is worrisome. Indonesia is the 4th largest nation in terms of population (273 million) and we know next to nothing as to what is happening there. The lack of testing means that it has less confirmed cases than Singapore which has a population of just 6 million.

So let's go with what we do know about the 3rd largest nation (330 million) and the 6th largest nation (213 million), USA and Brazil respectively, and see if we can figure out what is probably occurring.

Both the USA and Brazil have leaders that are largely in denial with respect to the Pandemic. Indonesia's leader might not be in complete denial but he is doing less than nothing in the way of trying to mitigate the spread of the virus by all accounts. If we take that into account then in all likelihood Indonesia is heading in the same direction as the USA and Brazil when it comes to infections and deaths even though we might never know exactly how bad it is.

 

HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before.

During the run of the day on 2020-06-013, there was one analysis of size:
USA EOD report for 2020-06-012, posted 2020-06-013, 12:49 GMT +2, #10072.

To confirm this quick analysis or to sort the date as you wish, use the following links to work the table on your own:
- the WORLDOMETER website for today, or
- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future. In order to to that, search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. On some days, WORLDOMETER also provides a "2 days ago" function as well, which is the case today.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Saturday, 2020-06-013 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

*******7,859,879*******
+133,873 cases today over yesterday.
There are 122 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 431,918 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
Among the nations: the USA is rank 1 in total deaths; Brazil is now rank 2, ahead of UK.
890 Brazilians, 702 Americans and 504 Mexicans died from COVID-19 on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
​

2020-060-013 was the third Saturday in a row to have the world jump more than +100,000 cases and also sets the record for the most new C19 cases ever on a Saturday. In fact, the world has had more than +100,000 new cases in 17 of the last 18 days. +100,000 or more C19 cases per day is becoming the new normal.

The daily death numbers for this Saturday track very, very closely to the three Saturdays before. The fourth Saturday before (2020-05-016) shows considerably more daily deaths.

As you can see, recovered cases have edged over 51%. This is, of course, a good sign.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +200 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 122 nations in the "thousand club". At 980 and 980 respectively, Cyprus and Niger are next up to cross over the 1,000 line.

Of those 122, 59 are now in the "10,000 club". Currently at 9,991, the Czech Republic is next up.

16 of those 59 are now at 100,000 or more. At 98,410, Canada is up next. However, Canada's daily case load has slowed down considerably, a very hopeful sign for that nation.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:



The USA lead in new cases over Brazil, and with India, all three had more than +10,000 new cases apiece.

63 countries had +100 or more new cases, 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 67. Of those 63, 21 countries had +1000 or more new cases. The day before, it was also 21. If you look at the list of top cases, you will see that they come from all over the world, but the Europe is the least represented on that upper list.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending, there are now 76 nations with 100 total deaths or more, with Kenya going over the 100 line on 2020-06-013. That is more than 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. At 99, 87 and 84 total deaths respectively, Oman, Somalia and Cuba are next to cross over the line.

Of those 76, 32 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. There are now 11 nations between 500-1000 total deaths and you can be guaranteed that by the end of this month, most, if not all of them will have gone over this gruesome marker.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:

Brasil, the USA and Mexico lead with the most deaths.

If you look back at the major European hotspot countries from March/April/part of May, none of them posted over +100 daily deaths except the UK (+181). Italy, France, Germany and Spain had +78, +24, +4 and 0, respectively. Yes, you read that correctly: on 2020-06-013, Spain recorded ZERO C19 deaths, and for the sixth day in a row! There can be no doubt that the wave that hit Europe is receding.

8 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 10 the day before). 5 of those 8 countries are from the Americas.

I would just like to remind about this series I have running, for which there will be large analysis at the end of June, 2020:

"Future Upperdecks" Series, #1: Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Mauritania and Malawi, posted 2020-05-030, 19:00 GMT +2, #9612.
And "Future Upperdecks" Series, #2 (7 other nations). It's all explained at the links. A halfway-point update was just released:

Future Upperdecks #1 and #2: the halfway point, posted 2020-06-014, 09:39, #10104.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 22 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Belgium having crossed over the 1 million line on 2020-06-013:



The USA has now performed 24.3 million tests (500,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 14.6 million tests (400,000 more than the day before).

Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections and in terms of total deaths, is now at 1.5 million.

Facit: on 2020-06-013, the world again saw the largest raw-number addition of cases thus far on a Saturday and sailed 7.86 million total C19 cases. We are easily on our way to 10 million confirmed C19 cases by the end of June 2020.

Now at 117,527 total deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. A new extrapolation indicated 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running.

Brazil, currently at 42,791 total deaths and growing around 1,000 deaths per day, overtook the UK in number of total deaths on 2020-06-012 and is now rank 2 among the C19 dead, behing the USA.

The world-wide curve has generally flattened, which was the primary goal of mitigation. The steady rise in the growth rate in total cases is, however, not a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.

Editorial comment (I am gonna leave this here for a while): my gut tells me that we are going to see one or more very unpleasant surprises in this month as concerns COVID-19: either a massive rise in cases and deaths where we were not looking, or something new about the illness itself that we had not known before, something that will make going into the summer of 2020 (in the Northern Hemisphere) even more difficult. I am feeling this deep down in my bones. I have a very, very bad feeling about this month.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Saturday, 2020-06-013 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

**2,142,224**
+25,302 cases today over the day before.
117,527 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA.
702 Americans died from COVID-19 on this day.
854,106 people have recovered, 1,170,591 are, however, still sick.​

In order to confirm my quick analysis, please go directly to the WORLDOMETER website today or to the WAYBACK MACHINE after today. If you use the wayback machine after today, search for one day later than the date you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. This way, you have more control over what you want to see and when you want to see it.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

From the screenshot, you can compare this Saturday to the last four Saturdays. 2020-06-013 was the largest instance of daily new cases on a Saturday in a long time. The very best news is that the daily deaths on this Saturday were under +1,000 and for the second Saturday in a row.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total confirmed cases, descending:
​

Total confirmed C-19 cases:​

47 out of 50 states have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. At 723 or less C19 cases, it will be a while before Hawaii, Alaska and Montana cross over this line, but I am very sure that in the fullness of time, they will.

36 of those 46 now have more than +10,000 cases, but with "Veterans affairs" (16,965) and the US Military (11,439) also having more than 10,000 cases, it's then actually 38, with Veterans Affairs at really rank 28 and US military personnel at rank 34. DC (9,709) and New Mexico (9,621) will shortly also cross that gruesome line.

New daily cases:​

48 states reported at least one new case. The two states with no new reported cases: KS and RI.
34 states reported more than +100 new cases; the day before, it was 37.
7 of those 33 states reported over +1,000 new cases:



I think those numbers speak very clearly for themselves. CA has been leading the pack in daily new cases - and with well over +3,000 cases - and so I expect that soon, daily deaths in CA will also rise. I don't think we have ever before seen 7 states on a given day with over +1,000 new C19 cases, until 2020-06-013, that is.

One of the states that remains the steadiest all the time, around rank 20, is OH.

New daily deaths:​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

36 of 50 states (+DC = 37) reported at least one death. The day before, it was 43.

Of those 44, 0 states reported more than 100 daily deaths, and that for the EIGHTH day in a row. This means that the deaths are being more evenly spread throughout the Republic. This time, the order, is neither old nor new:

Total deaths:
​

41 states now have at least 100 total deaths. That's more than 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that. At 88, 87, 75 and 74 total deaths respectively, WV, ID and both Dakotas will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 40, 21 states in the Union now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths.


FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 117,527 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between roughly 117,000-126,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of almost ALL of INDEPENDENCE, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not.

So, some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen. Right now, we are 2,232 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us slightly over 3 days ahead of the projection.

-Stat

 

Wait a minute..



In new cases, and per capita, we’ve now surpassed the Canucks by approx. 500%.....it used to be a steady 125% difference, primarily due to CDC’s screwup.

Thus, obviously, early reopenings, Memorial long, and the protests have/will alter our Covid19 graphs to look like a roller coaster. The Canucks keep flattering their curve, and we keep shooting ourselves in the foot so to speak.

 

Yes. In a nutshell, that's it.

 

3 months ago today, at 20:01 EST in the USA (02:01 GMT +2 on 2020-03-015, my time), this thread was created.

When today is completed I will be comparing back to three months ago, just as I did on 2020-05-014.

But at the OP (allllllll the wayyyyyyyy back to the verrrrrrry firrrrst possssting....), I did an extrapolation based on an 17-day doubling. I quote:

Fortunately, this extrapolation is not going to become reality. That's the good news. But cast your eyes upon the extrapolation for the date 2020-06-023: 10,548,608 C-19 cases.

Right now, we are here:



The day has practically just begun and we have already jumped +50,000 cases. 120 nations have not yet reported in yet and both the USA and Brazil have reported only a small fraction of the figures in comparison to where they will be at the end of the day, so most likely, we will have between +120,000 and +130,000 when the day is done, bringing us to at least 7,980,000 total C19 cases, right under 8 million.

After today, there will be nine more days until 2020-06-023, so very likely, by that date, we will be over 9 million, but not close to 10.5 million as extrapolated. However, by the end of June 2020, we WILL be at or over 10,000,000 cases. So, the extrapolation from 2020-03-014 was not all that off, but the mathematical assumption behind it, namely a doubling every 17 days, was off. But be honest: who among us really thought that before the summer officially begins, the world would be at 10,000,000 cases and pushing hard toward 1/2-million deaths?

 

British Columbians have a long history of holding general strikes, defying government authority, etc. They have, however, respect for government actions creating conditions for social justice. Smoke pot? Yep. Defy the government over social distancing? No.

Something that typifies the actions of authorities... the Chief Medical Officer...


Dr. Bonnie Henry

... was asked by reporters if she was critical of young people not social distancing on a beach on the first nice day in months. She said she was concerned, but waived off passing judgment by saying simply, "No, they've been through a lot."

 

Colorado Data
https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data

I am pretty satisfied how the data develops. My county has now 59 cases, but there is just a dozen or so active cases. For me personal I consider my county low risk, but it does not mean letting the guard down

 

The state of Alabama has reported more than +1,000 new C19 cases for the very first time. Yesterday: +981. Today: +1,014.

 

The Vancouver health region in British Columbia includes the city of Vancouver that has a large area with NYC density...



... and is overall the fourth most dense city in North America. This is how COVID-19 has been in Vancouver...



Vancouver proves SARS-CoV-2 can be contained in a big city. I mention Vancouver because my wife and I live in Canada part of the year and we've been in British Columbia (instead of Oregon) since this virus business began.

Vancouver proves social distancing is enough, although wearing masks became more common as time went on during the pandemic and the new infections curve in British Columbia was bent, then flattened.

The science says people maintaining their distance outside are unlikely to catch the virus.

 

Dr. Bonnie Henry.....Wikipedia

Her handling of the Covid19 pandemic in BC earned praise in a dedicated New York Times article that called “One of the most effective public health officials in the world”.

In the U.S., CDC’s Nancy Messonnier deserves the same praise, however, she was gagged by Trump, and dishonoured by the right wing media.

 

After reporting +710 C19 cases on Tuesday, +1,167 C19 cases on Wednesday, +1,177 C19 cases on Thursday, +1,846 C19 cases on Friday and +1,428 C19 cases yesterday, the state of NC is reporting +1,275 C19 cases today. This puts North Carolina over the +1,000 mark in new cases for 5 days in a row.

NC is most definitely becoming a hotspot. No doubt about it.

 

In the USA, on a Sunday, which used to be a slow day, with 29 states left to report (many of them the very biggest states), we already have 4 states to have reported over +1,000 new C19 cases - again, on a Sunday, which has traditionally been a slow day:



We currently have 4 southern states all reporting over +1,000 new cases. Big, big states like NY, NJ, CA, IL, MA, TX, MI, GA and LA have not even reported in yet. Three of the smallest states in the Union, MT, WY and VT, which often report nothing, have reported new cases.

So, it's looking like today is going to be a big caseload day for the USA.

On the other side, the number of deaths is (currently) considerably down. How nice it would be if we could freeze time right now....

 

The number of new C19 cases out of Tenessee has more than doubled, going from +415 yesterday (2020-06-013) to +891 today (2020-06-014).
It is extremely unsusual that the numbers jump to such extremes on a Sunday - usually, the case-load has receded on Sundays.

However, Georgia's case-load has relaxed from +1,018 yesterday to +880 today.

Right now, NY is rank 9 among new C-19 cases, not very close to the top of the rankings. And that rank will likely move from 9 to 13 as CA, IL, MA and TX have not yet published their daily C19 data.

 

Not just Canada. Europe is now on the improve, and even the UK has dropped out of the top ten (daily new cases). America started bad, and instead of improving (in daily new cases) over time as has most of the West and the East, they continue to get worse.

 

China don't play when it comes to this virus.

June 14, 2020

China is locking now ten more neighbourhoods in Beijing to try and contain the spread of a new coronavirus outbreak linked to a food market, authorities announced Monday.

City official Li Junjie said at a press conference that fresh cases had been found in a second wholesale market in northwestern Haidian district, and as a result, the market and nearby schools would be closed, and people living in ten communities around it placed under lockdown.

 

So, here the preliminary figures for 2020-06-014:



We landed pretty much right between the +120,000 and +130,000 I predicted yesterday, and slightly over 7.98 million total, exactly as predicted.

Why "preliminary"? Because very often during my afternoon, the figures for "one day ago" at WorldOMeter have been moved consistently upward, and most of the time it has been because Brazil then sent in revised figures for the day before. Hell, even the number of 2020-06-013 was again revised and I have not noted it - yet. Actually, 1,000 more cases were added on 2020-06-013, and guess where? Brazil... either way, we landed where I thought we would land.

Please notice the 7-day average of almost 129,000 new cases per day, a sharp uptick over the week before. And this Sunday's C19 case load was 11,000 richer than the Sunday before.... but the average deaths (thankfully) declined somewhat.

So, since the numbers are likely to be revised, consider this a pre-analysis for 2020-06-014. Here also the USA:



And Brazil:



And the FINAL numbers for Russia (they don't revise, ever, those stubborn Russkis):



Later today, I will do the "real" analysis. But right after this posting I will post that the world has already crossed over the 8-million mark and assuming a minimum of the same number of +C19-cases today, will easily go over the 8.1 million mark as well. This means that we will have gone 1 million cases, from 7 million to 8 million, in 8 days time. Today is 2020-06-015. Including today, there are 16 days left in the month. If we keep up this pace, then we cross over the 10 million mark at the very tail end of this month.

-Stat