Trade war with China a big, fat zero ... or worse

Breaking news: House lawmakers left the Capitol Friday night without passing a budget agreement, ensuring funding for several key government agencies will lapse at midnight.



Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump


The Democrats now own the shutdown!

86.5K
7:07 AM - Dec 21, 2018

"I am proud to shut down the government for border security, Chuck, because the people of this country don't want criminals and people that have lots of problems and drugs pouring into our country," Trump said last Tuesday. "I will be the one to shut it down. I'm not going to blame you for it."

 

Trump's trade war with China is hurting our economy. I could give a shyt about China's. Who's side are you on?

That reply was sent to two of Trump's supporters. These are the people who chose our President, and we let them do it.

Never again. Never, ever again.

 

OMG - are you quoting Krugman? He is proven to be an idiot who lost his savant.

The major cause of the US stock market adjustment is the Fed increasing rates again and again and again -
During the Obama years the Fed maintained 0% interest for years. Please note that, in spite of all of the crying and tears, and never increased rates above 0.5%

Since President Trump was elected in November, 2016, the rates have been increased 7 times from 0.5% to 2.5% as compared to the 2 to 3 rate changes totaling 0.5% in the 8 year fiasco of the Obama years.

The goal of the fed is to slow the economy down and keep inflation at bay.

Please note that employment and new job creation is steady. The only fiscal issues are with the fed and in your head.

 

My IRA is just fine. Thank the Fed raising rates for your decline.
Its near Christmas, give it a break.

 

BS! The only place the US economy is hurting is in your mind!

Everyone with one wit of market sense knew that the market would react strongly to the recent Fed rate hikes - 7 hikes in less than two years is excessive.

Take a look at the rest of the world - in spite of your cackling doom and gloom, the US economy is out pacing all other economies in the world

Wages and job creation continue to grow. Unemployment continues to shrink. Seasonal shopping has indicated the likelyhood of setting Christmas season spending records - and here you are, crying that the sky is falling. When can I expect you to start baying at the moon?

 

Welcome to Trump's government.

The government will partially shut down at midnight tonight, the first time in 40 years that has happened three times in a year.

 

President Trump isn't at fault - he can't sign a bill that the democrats won't allow to pass for his signature.

Nancy Pelosi and her butt boy Chuckie Schumer are the reason the government will shut down because they made sure the rank and file Democrat congressmen voted against the spending measure.

By the way - didn't Chuckie Schumer back down and give in the first time the government shut down -

 

More than two-thirds of Americans don’t think the wall should be a priority, according to a new poll by NPR, PBS News Hour and Marist.

Only 28% of those polled answered that the border wall should be an immediate priority, while 19% replied it shouldn’t be an immediate priority, and 50% said it shouldn’t be a priority at all.

http://fortune.com/2018/12/12/trump-border-wall-poll/

As has been his two year custom, Trump is leading the charge supporting his base. He just can't understand that his base is a minority and can't win general elections. The lessons from the mid-terms flew right over his head. He makes no attempt to broaden his support.

Indeed, he does the very opposite. He does everything he can to discourage the growth of his approval rating. Shutting the government down and surrendering to ISIS and Russia in Syria doesn't do him a damn bit of good.

And he can't keep the help. Sessions, McGahn, Haley, Kelly, Ayers, and Mattis have all quit or been fired recently.

 

I know that. So, tell me, why the harsh tariffs on our friends and trading partners? Why the trade war with China? Republicans in Congress oppose Trump's tariffs. They are for free trade. Are they wrong? Are you a Republican? Or a liberal who supports protectionist tariffs.

When it works, don't fix it.

The stock market is the canary in coal mine for our economy.

As the Dow Jones Industrial Average confronts its ugliest December loss since 1931, the time of the Great Depression, there is another notable way to put the severity of this persistent bout of losses into historical context.


If current conditions hold, it would mark the worst average daily moves for the Dow DJIA, -1.81% the S&P 500 index SPX, -2.06% and the Russell 2000 index RUT, -2.56% since October of 1987, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...-the-1987-crash-in-1-important-way-2018-12-21

 

More cherry picking!!

A recent Gallup poll says that the government is the number one problem facing the nation, with border security the second most problem facing the nation

Health care comes in at about 7th and the list bottoms out with gun control.

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/gallup-poll-top-problems/

 

Based on your post, I see that you agree with me - the US economy is humming along. We part company where I speculate the fed increases are a bump in the road and you say that President Trump is the anti-Christ and is responsible for everything that has gone wrong, that might be going wrong or that could some day go wrong.

And of course, the Democrat Party is innocent of any and all wrongdoing.

 

Here's a prediction

At the start of the new year - possibly before then, the market will rebound.

My reasoning:
1. The Fed will back off more rate hikes until CQ2
2. China will blink
3. The Democrats will cave - there are no more balls there than in the GOP
4. All other economic indicators will continue to improve.

Anyone with a little bit of common sense understands that the market was slightly overvalued prior to the sell-off: the market is now undervalued and a good investment opportunity.

 

So china lacks brains in their economic experts, they can’t even understand these simple charts that we are taught in econ 101 in college.

China is the rising super power, has made tremendous progress in last few decades by protecting key industries.

Sometimes i think all those pretty charts and econ principles we are taught in school may not work as-well as running an economy based on protectionism, smartly done.

I find it hard to believe that the chinese can’t grasp such simple concepts when i would argue, they are the strongest academically in the world. Chinese are not dumb...

 

I think everyone can agree that the Chinese are not dumb.
However,
The Chinese House is a straw house that will not be able to withstand strong winds. Their economy is overextended in infrastructure and military spending. Their culture is not innovative. Their culture tends toward the xenophobic.

 

The majority of Americans don't want the government to close down over the wall.

The majority of Republicans don't want the wall.

That is cherry picking? Are you from the South?

Yes, of course, the Trump government. Nice to see we agree on something. Thanks.

 

You could be right. At least, I hope so.

But you forgot two important factors. Hopefully, come the new year, Trump's government shutdown will be over. Maybe he will grow a brain. You do know that was a major factor in the stock market collapse this week along with the interest rate hike.

Also, hopefully by Jan 1 Trump forgot about the 25% tariff he was going to place on Chinese goods at the beginning of the year. You do know that was a major factor in the stock market collapse this week.

Why does Wall Street panic over an interest rate hike of 1/4 of 1%? Answer, it doesn't. That is what Trump and Trump friendly Wall Street analysts want you to believe so we don't talk about Trump's role in the collapse. Keep in mind, this is the worst December since 1931. The stock market has lost all of its gains for the year. This didn't begin this week with the Fed's decision. This began in March.

When did Trump announce his harsh tariffs? When did the trade wars begin? March!

 

OMG! You're so full of TDS you can't think straight.

Re: the shut down - IMO the congress will blink first based on the gonad factor - the Congress has these little sacks with very little nuts - all you have to do is look at the way Chuckie acts when Nancy is in the room - he's ***** whipped and they aren't even married.

Looking at it from the other side - what does President Trump have to lose? If he gives in, he loses his base and loses any chance at re-election. If he holds his own, he keeps his base and politics against the Democrats.

 

We'll know in a week or two - I suggest you research what follows most market downturns - please try to refrain from cherry picking.

 

What slowing economies .. and what do you mean by slowing ? Hard to make any comments on the basis of vague generalities.

Regardless - even if this were true - the macro event you are referring to does not have a short term impact like what we have seen over the past couple of months. It is the tariffs, sanctions and uncertainty on a short term basis in relation to Trump and these other factors.

It is not that a slowing overall world economy would not contribute but it is the secondary - or more like a tertiary contributor to short the fluctuation that we have seen.

One other big elephant in the room that is a major contributor is the rising interest rate in environment. These are dangerous days. Too many negative things happening at the same time.

 

Chuckie persuaded Trump to admit that he was proud to cause a shutdown over his wall. Who is the idiot?

This is where Trump is so stupid. His base is a minority. His base does not win general elections. Want proof? Check out the mid-terms. Trump said the mid-terms were a referendum of his administration. He lost the House by 40 reps plus several state houses and state legislatures.

Trump is too stupid to broaden his appeal. He does the very opposite. He angers the majority of Americans and he has lost conservatives like me. He listens only to the far right.

You, for example.

 

Free trade with scumbag countries like China has done more to hurt the US than any tarriff ever will. It is the sole reason for outsourcing, because it allows scumbag traitors like Apple, Nike, Walmart, etc, to send all the jobs to China and exploit the fact that China doesn't care about their own people and allows them to be used as borderline slave labor,working 16-20 hour days for pennies, with little or no breaks or benefits.

We need to abolish free trade with Mexico, China, and all other scumbag countries who do not meet a minimum standards for wages and labor protections.

 

Can you refer to one economic study in support of that proposition? If not, why not?

 

The fact that 90% of oursourcing is done so that the companies can take advantage of extremely low wages and almost no labor protections for Chinese workers is all the support needed IMHO.

Without free trade with China, US companies would have no incentive to outsource jobs there.

 

I'm not interested in outsourcing blubbering. Can you refer to one economic study in support of your proposition? If not, why not? Its a simple request

 

You're mischaracterizing the results.

Firstly, there's no "border security" option in the survey. It's "immigration/illegal aliens" which may mean a number of things.

Secondly, problems are listed by the number of mentions. The most-mentioned problem is not necessarily the problem mentioned by most.

For instance, "immigration/illegal aliens" may be the second most-mentioned, but it was only mentioned by 16%.

84% didn't mention it at all.

So your post supports rather than counters Sandy Shanks' poll showing that the majority don't think a wall should be priority, either now or ever.