Trump is favorite to win in 2020...

and when you lose....it will be four more years of you dragging America through the dirt to prove some kind of collusion. Maybe it will be Martians.

 

Oh noooooo! Dems just want open borders and drivers licenses for illegals that they encourage at every opportunity. Don't try and play the moral high road with us "deplorables" Lefty!!

 

I'm sure the Chinese would love to see Trump defeated. They could work fine with Uncle Joe like before. "Just tell 'em I'll have more leverage if I'm elected!!"

 

How good were you in 2016?
You know, all the race baiting, and phobia accusations turned a lot of us deplorables into stealth voters. Watch the polls jump up and bite you in the a#$ again!

 

Dems hit like girls. Did you see Obama's opening pitch?

 

We'll see. I have time. What I noticed is Trump hasn't tried to expand his base. He has lost some independents who supported him. I'll not move away from my statement that 2020 boils down to whom the Democrats nominate.

 

They have all endorsed the idea of free healthcare to illegal invaders. How does that sit with America? Doesn't that solidify their intentions?

 

You forgot number four:

4- the Democratic Party has gone slap insane. The Democrats won two presidential elections with Bill Clinton who though he might've been sympathetic to liberal positions was pretty much a centrists. The Democrats then won two presidential elections with Barack Obama who had the novelty of being the first black man nominated to be president and though he had a few very liberal ideas like Obamacare was fairly centrist on many major issues.

Compared to the crop of Democrats now running, Clinton and Obama would be right wingers.

 

I've always said those who oppose Trump do so more on his obnoxious personality, his unpresidential behavior, his uncouth persona than his policies or what he has done or hasn't done. Independents are split on his policies, for some, against some. But they don't like Trump, the man.

I think that showed up in 2018 when independents voted for the democratic congressional candidates 54-42 over the GOP congressional candidates. Trump had won independents 46-42 back in 2016 with 12% voting third party, against both Trump and Clinton. Independents really disliked both major party candidates.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...mericans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

Those 12% still disliked Trump. I don't think it is a matter if they will vote for Trump. I think it is a matter if they vote Democratic or third party once again. They still dislike Trump. Two things here, question 41. Trump Likability - Regardless of whether you agree with him, do you like or dislike Donald Trump as a person? Independents 27% like him, 44% dislike him. More important are the like a lot vs dislike a lot. 14% to 36%.

Then there is question 49. Run for Reelection Do you want Donald Trump to run for re-election in 2020? 35% of independents say yes, 42% say no. Under water once again.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/u4gcv1suy6/econTabReport.pdf

I think Trump will have a hard time winning independents again. The Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties. Trump and the GOP must win the independent vote or lose the election. I think Trump supporters, the GOP in general have really underestimate the impact of Trump's character, his persona more out of the WWE than the Oval office. The impact that will have on the general election. Especially among independents.

But we'll see. The Democrats could save Trump once again. They did so in 2016 by nominating Hillary Clinton, a candidate disliked by independents much more than Trump although both were disliked. 70% of independents disliked Hillary, 57% disliked Trump. Questions 10 and 11.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

This is why I say 2020 boils down to whom the Democrats nominate.

 

This is devastating for the Dems. If a generic (in other words flawless, with no record to pick apart, no past, no skeletons in the closet) democrat can't beat Trump, a real person, after being subjected to $1 billion negative campaign, after having one's records scrutinized and exposed in the worst possible way, after having all past misdeeds since birth revealed and magnified - a non-generic democrat stands absolutely no chance....

In other words, Trump is at 30% after 5 years of vetting, a generic dem is at 30% before.... Trump has nowhere to go but up, the eventual candidate has nowhere to go but down.

 

"Trump is favorite to win in 2020..."

lol, among Trump supporters and white nationalists

 

I've been voting since 1972 and I do agree with you about incumbent presidents and that edge they have, but this is so far from normal that I think that edge is pretty dull where Trump is concerned. For one thing, no other president has ever comported himself with such open nastiness towards any who openly disagree or challenge him, no other has ever been so incompetent or filled important cabinet and other high positions with political or personal cronies who are equally incompetent, and no other president has had so many campaign and administration people indicted and even jailed for their actions on his behalf.

Add to that the high probability that at least two other Republicans are mounting primary runs against him, and that makes Trump a weak contender if he survives that process.

Sorry for the condescension but the OP sure sounds sarcastic to me.

 

Wow, long list of false allegations so I'll just pick the low hanging fruit. Russian collusion went away and now the investigation is about how this fake investigation got started and as for the Hispanic vote

https://spectator.org/why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-up-among-minorities/

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...oval-to-51-up-with-blacks-hispanics?_amp=true

 

We'll see. Do Americans prefer a shallow candidate that engages in political speak and does business as usual, or one who is a little rough around the edges but accomplishes great things for America?

 

LOL. You made me laugh, so kudos for that. Otherwise, nothing about this is the least bit accurate.

1. Trump is not the favorite to win. "Anyone else" is the favorite to win, and still will be come election day 2020. Only question is how many people are lying to the media and will vote for Trump anyway. 1/10, Trump loses. 2/10, Trump wins.

2. Trump is most likely going to win based on historical election results. Only two presidents have failed to win re-election in the last 50 years (Bush the elder and Jimmy Carter), with Johnson deciding not to risk it in 1968.

3. Trump is most likely going to win based on the hysteria on the left. No candidate ever won an election by being more hysterical than his/her opponent. And with most on the left endorsing deeply unpopular positions, Trump only has to keep painting his opponent as a socialist and he will win.

4. Trump is most likely going to win based on the continuing failures of the left to nail Trump with anything substantive. Russian collusion, racism, etc., all have failed to come to fruition for the Democrats, but their continued insistence that Trump be impeached is working against them.

5. Trump isn't the one colluding/conspiring with other countries, that would be the Democrats, who are campaigning in Mexico and requesting foreign help in overthrowing Trump.

6. Trump isn't the one doing voter manipulation, that would be the Democrats, who through Google, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc., are doing everything in their power to make sure Trump loses.

7. Trump isn't the one with no scruples, that would be the Democrats, who will do anything it takes to win, including recruiting people in the executive branch to work against the president, changing the law to make the popular vote count, registering illegal aliens and felons to vote, and working against any attempt to verify voters' identities so they can cheat.

 

yep, the only way Trump wins is if people don't vote

 

Sincerely, I do not care whether you think he will win re-election or not. I have no desire to have that debate a year and a half before the election.

What is relevant is that the OP is not being sarcastic in any manner, shape, or form.

 

Based on the type of tumor that was removed, Ginsberg may only have a few more months to live.

To be honest, if Trump replaces Ginsberg he may lose some votes because the SCOTUS issue won't be as important in 2020 as it was in 2016.

But the bottom line is this... If the Dems pick Biden, Warren or Sanders they are SURE to lose.

Only one of the Dem candidates has a chance to beat Trump and it doesn't look like that will happen.

 

Or americans see through all your fake bullshit. The fake news, the russian hoax, the racist hoax, the kavanaugh hoax. The american people can all see how full of it you anti trumpers really are . And with some fresh indictments coming out right before the election , should be icing on the cake. And hey , if you ask me you all deserve trump for 20 more years .... enjoy it you earned it . Frauds.

 

There are many factors that will cost Trump a second term. Perhaps the most telling is the way Trump's constant chaos and grandstanding has worn the voters to a frazzle. Most have already "had enough" of the guy. By November 2020 Trump's shenanigans will have exceed the threshold of pain for most voters. "Had enough?" will come a Democratic bumper sticker. Beyond this there is:

- Democrats are even more energized that they were in 2018. The want Trump gone as a threat to American democracy.
- The impeachment process will continue to highlight Trump's corruption and unlawful behavior. His cabinet will go with him.
- Trump's breathtakingly stupid, ill thought out trade war will cost consumers plenty. Every knows who's paying for those tariffs.
- The economy will stall. There is nothing to stop it. Consumers are tapped out.
- Democrats won't make the same mistakes as 2016. Their candidate will have wide popular appeal.
- Then there is the "socialism factor" which will backlash on the GOP. People like Bernie Sanders and they like what he is selling. Most voters, especially young voters, don't know what the brouhaha is about socialism. It seems overblown (it is) and some of it sounds pretty good. In front of Trump's audience on FOX town halls Bernie scored big with voters. They liked him and his programs. The moderators were shocked.
- Trump loyalists are stuck on 2016. The Dems look at 2018.
- Suburban women and all minorities, especially blacks and hispanics, abhor Trump. Now Jews do too.
- Finally, no Democrat is taking anything for granted. They know better after 2016.

If Trump is impeached (iffy at best) and the GOP refuses to take up the matter, the GOP will have a lot to answer for in 2020. They will lose the Senate. GOP town halls, a rarity, are getting ugly.

The Dems have a lot of work to do and they know it. Their platform is totally open and they need to close ranks. They will. Who will they nominate? Someone with an inspiring, positive vision and the leadership ability and likability to attract voters to that vision and him/herself. Someone where Trump's juvenal name calling will make voters gag.

 

The Dems/Left who are obsessed with Trump don't have a clue. Those of us who voted for him did so because we knew what a train wreck a Hillary presidency would be, we had eight years of Obama to illustrate that. Obama was the final straw of five plus decades of leftist politics. What the left represents is diametrically opposed to what America is about. The left it is all about power and corrupt to the core. They paint themselves as altruistic but in truth hate America and given the chance would destroy our political system and Constitution. Fifty years of Marxist machinations have made their message clear and that is not at all what most Americans want. So it is not Trump that we vote for, although it turns out he's been a remarkably good president, we are voting for the integrity and continuity of the greatest and most exceptional nation ever to exist. There's no amount of leftist flim flam that works anymore, that game is over. The American voter is not the dim witted knuckle dragger that you keep insisting doesn't know what's good for them and America. We love freedom, to be who we want to be, to be self determined and self sufficient, to acquire a level of wealth that provides us comfort and security that is beyond the reach of the government, to live, talk and worship freely, to be free from an oppressive, consumptive, self serving government. We know that in spite of the colorful, platitude filled descriptions of their vision that the left is morally bankrupt and inherently evil. The noble Democrat party no longer exists and I wonder sometimes if it ever did, it has been co-opted by the immoral, unprincipled, opportunistic, avaricious, Godless, evil progressive left. That is why Trump will win and there will be a Republican in the White House until the Democrat party rids itself of the anti America progressive agenda. We were once one nation, there's more of us that remember that than those that wish to divide us.

 

That all depends on how one interprets the It depends column. We know 42% of independents in 2016 voted for Clinton because they didn't like Trump. we also know 12% of independents voted third party because they couldn't stand either Clinton nor Trump. That's 54% against Trump while it was also 58% against Clinton.

Clinton is no longer on the ballot to save Trump. I would imagine within a couple of points that the 42% of independents who voted for Clinton will probably vote Democratic. That leaves the 12% who disliked and didn't want neither Clinton nor Trump to become their next president. Who will they vote for or perhaps more important against? We' know they already don't like Trump. What we don't know is their attitude for whomever the Democratic nominate. Will they vote against both candidates again? Or will some peal off and vote Democratic? That probably depends on how much they dislike or like whomever the Democrats nominate.

 

That is the question. I'd say Trump is more than just a little rough around the edges. He comes across as down right obnoxious to quite a few people. Will they vote for the Democrat just to get some civility back into the oval office? I'd say the odds are slightly in that favor. Especially among independents. But we have such a long time to go. Plus we don't know whom the Democratic nominee will be.

I do think Trump supporters and the GOP in general have ignored or down played Trump's brashness, name calling, his in your face politics. 2018 was a sign of that. Independents switch from Trump 46-42 over Hillary with 12% voting third party against both Trump and Hillary. They switched to the Democratic congressional candidates 54-42 over the GOP congressional candidates.

 

Huh? That Hillary is NOT running is already factored into the numbers YOU provided according to which 30% of independents support Trump after he's been vetted for 5 years and 30% of independents support a generic democrat before he/she has been named, let alone vetted, let alone subjected to a non-stop barrage of the vilest, meanest negative campaign $1 billion can buy.

Indeed we do not know which way the undecided independents will break but based on what we do know the news is very good for Trump, the generic candidate support drops a few points the moment the nominee is named, even before the campaign even starts and one penny is spent.

 

Reagan had a way to laugh off the lies and brashness of the American left and it's puppet media. He did an end run around them. Since then, the media has become much more brazen in their leftist preference. So called gentlemen politicians like McCain and Romney, threw in the towel by turning their head to such brazen implications and attacks. Us folks, accustomed to a slightly more "hardscrabble" life, (call us deplorables) turn our head in disgust. Trump eats their lunch. If they could refrain from their lies and implications I'm sure they would see the "gentlemen" side of President Trump.
Instead they spread lies that minds full of mush believe like "Donald Trump says Mexicans are rapist and criminals". When one reads the transcript he discovers that is a brazen lie.
The Donald Trump strategy has it's supporters. They just aren't going to let you know until they vote.