Trump is favorite to win in 2020...

We'll see.

 

The incumbent always has a significant advantage on name recognition alone, not to mention the people that will vote for him regardless and the people that will vote for anyone with an R beside their name. That said trump is extremely underwater in most polls and in most places. There isn’t a single state in the nation with one exception that he has increased his favorability ratings single his election and the economy is — unfortunately — flashing some pretty serious warning signs that a recession is near. If it happens before Election Day I don’t see him holding on for another term.

Democrats will keep the house, republicans will keep the senate and there is a chance the executive will swap parties — it’s small but still possible.

2016 close elections: Change in approval:


There are several states trump won by less than 5% in 2016 that he is no upside down in.
The chances of a popular vote win is almost zero (unless war or something major happens) and an electoral win will likely be less than it was in 2016.

It’s likely going to come down to Pennsylvania.

 

Anything is possible. Until we know whom the democrats will nominate, we're speculating. I think Trump's persona will be a hindrance when it comes to independents. It seems you don't which is fine since as I state, we're both speculating. What we can't factor in as of yet is how the Democratic Candidate will react to Trump's campaign style.

What I don't think will happen is whomever is the Democratic nominee, that that nominee won't be as lazy as Hillary was. She basically ceded the campaign trail to Trump. Trump had 116 campaign visits/stops/appearances/rallies from 1 Sep 2016 through 8 Nov 2016 to Hillary's 71. She also had a very inept campaign strategy. All she had to do was retain the Obama voters and she was home free. That she failed to do.

 

Don't do what Hillary did. Biden is not entitled emotionally in the sense of Clinton and Trump. He will take it to Trump mob handed.

 

The problem with this theory is that the more Hillary spoke, the more unpopular she got. If she had stayed home and not made any appearances anywhere, she might have won.

 

Thats what im saying . How do you debate or argue with people the constantly just type the exact opposite of reality. Its like a cartoon or something.

 

Thank you, thank you for the wonderful fallacy of false equivalency

 

Talk to Trump, who does it every single day

 

It is speculation. And I speculate all Trump has to is refer to all the candidates that raised their hands for open boarders and free healthcare. Think that was all of them unless one or two backpedaled. That should send a chill up the spine of independents!

 

LOL, anything is possible. She ran one of the most ho hum campaigns I have ever saw.

 

And the more Biden speaks....the more entertaining he becomes. That may not be truth BUT it is fact!

 

Maybe it should. Now you can be guaranteed that independents aren't pay much if any attention to 2020 at this time. What else we don't know if the election will be policy driven or personality driven. 2016 was certainly all about personality.

 

Nope! Any other questions?

 

Driver's licenses? You equate morally cheating in our elections to giving driver licenses?

Which, BTW, save lives...

 

Nothing but Hannity Rhetoric.

 

And it will be catastrophic for Trump

 

Argh! Don't give me that crap! In Clinton's time the right said that he was the most leftist Democrat that ever existed. And they said the same about Obama when he was nominated.....

You are just repeating wingnut media nonsense. The fact is that the Democratic Party has been shifting right for the last 40 years or so. As has the Republican Party. But the GOP has shifted much much farther to the right.

What you have been seeing is how Einstein's Relativity Theory applies to Politics.

Today, Ronald Reagan would have less in common with the Republican Party than with the Democratic Party. And Reagan was very far right for his time.

 

No. It's Trump's to lose. He's always been far stronger than the Fake News Media admits. On election day, Dems were +3 in voter registration. Today they are +2, a 5 point swing.

Glenn Reynolds reported, "Gallup: More people identify as Republicans, and fewer identify as Democrats, today than when Trump was elected." Republicans +2. On Election Day 2016, they were down 3, a 5-point swing.
They were even on Election Day 2014 when they took the Senate and kept the House.

They were down 5 on Election Day 2012 when America re-elected Obama the Awful.

Trump's favorability on the eve of the election was reported at 36%
His approval today is reported at 43.6% but these are not polls with samples that are GOP +2 like the electorate is.

Reuters for example used a D+6 sample at put his approval at 42%

 

Looks like the "low hanging fruit" was too high for you. Collusion with Russia is proven. And the "investigation of the investigators" is as real as Hillary's prison time, Mexico paying for a wall that is nowhere near ever being built, and... well... all those fake stories that the "Chosen One's" regime has made up to fool his gullible base.

Anyway... I think you need to be much more informed than that to make a significant contribution to this topic so.... good luck!

 

On what positions has the Democratic Party shifted to the right?

 

What nonsense! Elections aren't won by people "lying to the media". They won by people voting! And they lose it by not voting. And Trump now has the power to suppress the vote. Probably enough to be re-elected.

The rest of your post doesn't add anything to the discussion.

 

No President who wins three states by 77K votes is a strong contender.

Yes, he is President and and has the bully pulpit, but he misfires his mouth EVERY. SINGLE. DAY., which does not alienate his base. However, he is not going independents or other vote at all.

Let's see on Monday where the Stock Market goes based on his mouth misfiring EVERY. SINGLE. Day.

 

Nope.

 

Reagan would not be welcome in the GOP today.