Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Have to ask.

How the hell do you know its Australians who brought Covid 19 to Aspin? The media is full of reports of 10s thousands of high income New Yorker's fleeing the city for remote luxury 'retreats' across America - including Aspen. So apart from their accents what sets Australian tourists/workers apart from US citizens? Especially as we've only had about 5,500 case across the entire country while New York State alone had something like 98000 cases.

 

Perhaps the lesson that needs to be learned is that not even the wealthy are immune when it comes to a Pandemic. They might believe that they are safe on their luxury yacht off Aruba but that small boat that delivers the fresh fruit for their breakfast could bring the virus onboard.

And yes, you are right that it is impossible at this point in time to determine how the virus got to Aspen. No doubt there will be doctoral thesis done to establish the path that it took to reach every corner of the world.

 

There is a possibility that we might already HAVE a vaccine that at least PARTIALLY helps to MITIGATE Covid19.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ths-seen-in-countries-that-mandate-tb-vaccine

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042937v1

The BCG vaccine has been used for at least 8 decades for the prevention of respiratory diseases like TB. The study shows a correlation between nations that MANDATE the BCG vaccine and LOWER infection rates and death rates. However not all nations mandate the vaccination and India and Iran only began using it the mid 1980's.

So no, it is NOT going to be a panacea but it is a good starting place since we already have a great deal of research and knowledge into how BCG functions. Clinical trials and further research is obviously ESSENTIAL before it can be introduced and it won't be of any use at all to those already infected with Covid19.

However it DOES explain some of the anomalies that we are encountering in the data. There is a website that identifies which nations have BCG policies.

http://www.bcgatlas.org/

Germany began in 1961 and stopped in 1998.

Italy : 1970: Compulsory BCG vaccination was introduced for selected groups of people; 2001: Selected groups of people requiring BCG vaccination was reduced;

France began in 1950 and stopped in 2007.

Spain began in 1965 and stopped in 1981.

South Korea began in 1970's.

China it is mandatory but no start date is given.

USA has never had any BCG vaccination program.

So BCG does NOT prevent people being infected but it MIGHT mitigate the disease in terms of infection and death rates. It might also explain why some people can become infected but not develop symptoms since the vaccine prevents TB but not Covid19.

This is NOT the final answer but instead it is another CLUE to understanding our enemy and the more we know about the better chance we have of defeating it.

 

Huge salary?? Really?? Google his salary and check out how much he is paid. You will be surprised.

 

Elsewhere in this thread there have been mentions of the SECOND WAVE of Covid19 being more lethal than this first wave because of mutations. This is largely premised on the 1918 Flu Epidemic that was so deadly on a global scale.

I have been giving this a little more thought and if there is an ending to this current Covid19 Pandemic and it re-emerges in say 2021 then there will be repercussions depending upon how we respond when this current Pandemic is over.

If we all just breathe a sigh of relief that it is over and that we resume our "normal lives" again we will be setting ourselves up for yet another disaster. Collectively we are not that stupid and we will PREPARE ourselves in several ways.

Firstly we will have stockpiles of medical supplies and we will have trained up more medical staff. More importantly we will be on the ALERT for any suspicious outbreak and take IMMEDIATE ACTION to protect ourselves.

We already know that there is a 14 day symptom free lead time so we will keep careful records of everyone traveling. We will be able to trace who was on every flight leaving the epicenter and where that person went. We will be checking the temperatures of every passenger boarding a plane and then again when they arrive at their destination.

All of the above is doable and all that prevents us from making it happen is our own willingness to put those measures into place.

 

The left claims that Trump said the very same things. Just pointing out the hypocrisy.

 

The task force model is supposed to be updated sometime today. It has not been updated since April 1st.

I'm posting the April 1 model here so that when the projections are updated later (hopefully) these numbers can be easily compared without wading backwards 10-12 pages on this thread.

 

...and because New York is seeing the vast majority of U.S. cases/deaths, here are the April 1st projections before the update.

 

What I see in this thread is that disagreement = trolling, belief in the numbers and statements coming from the country who started the pandemic and the country which is the leading global sponsor of world terrorism, and posts which are word salads with little content. If a point is to be made make it, discuss it, and then make it again. The NHS comment addressed just that.

 

So the U.S. model has a "Notes" page with some good tracking information about the changes which occurred during the first week of the model being announced.

Essentially, if the red line is above the blue line, then the trend got worse during the week (blue line higher than the red line, things got better). The black line is the actual performance.

The "floor", or best case scenario got worse. The "target" (solid lines) got worse. The "ceiling", or worst case prediction improved.

 

New York has done far worse during the first week, driving most of the "for-the-worse" changes to the overall U.S. model.

Washington State did significantly better than expected during the first week, which helped improve (or minimize) negative changes to the U.S. model.

 

Anyway, no one in the medical industry could possibly want two generic drugs to be the solution even if the drugs keep doctors under heavy virus loads treating COVID patients virus-free and even if a NY doctor lost 0 to hospitalization or death out of 253 patients he treated. Those same people will use untested models to drive government policies that took down a $22T economy, destroying millions of lives along the way.

 

It was in the very early stages of the c19 outbreak and it was rather easy to find out how this happened and why there was suddenly this cluster, mini hot spot.
They were able to trace it back to that specific travelling group from Australia.

 

Horrifying, but was it predictable when this was going on minutes away from the MS hot spots on February 25?

 

Thanks. Governor Cuomo showed yesterday that only ~ 15,000 hospital beds were currently in use which is ~ 25% of the estimated need from the model. Also the hospital ship and the field hospital in Central Park remain practically empty. Is there a source showing the actual on the model as is done for fatalities?

 

The actual what on the model? Sorry, I'm not clear about which actual you're asking.

 

Those are being used today. On the Ingraham Angle last night a survey of 6227 doctors showed 37% rated hydroxychloroquine as “the most effective therapy” for Corona virus. Only 23% of doctors in the US were prescribing hydroxychloroquine. Outside the US it is being used for all patients but in the US only the high risk patients are getting the drug.

 

Doesn’t the model you posted show that ~ 60K beds needed.

 

Ah, I see. Hospital beds "actual" use is not on the national model as of April 1st. The expected number of beds needed, ICU-specific beds and ventilators are all projections, no current actuals.

 

These charts are from a New York publication with updates for New York, and specifically New York City: https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus-statistics-tracking-epidemic-new-york






Here is a bit of good news. If hospital discharges can outpace the newly hospitalized, then they're in good shape. (Unfortunately, New York is just now entering the ramp-up to their peak, so this situation isn't likely to last. We can hope it will.)

 

Here is the demographic on New York City deaths. They shape up pretty much in line with what the task force has told us all along: Older people, particularly those with pre-existing health conditions, as well as anyone of any age with pre-existing health issues.

Notable is the large number of people from all age groups where underlying conditions appear to be unknown. I'm supposing that may be representative of people who do not go to doctors for preventative care (regular checkups), so they may not have been tested for anything in years and don't have a charted health history. That's just a guess though. The large number is surprising. Perhaps their records are simply at a doctor's office elsewhere and they are waiting to get the files.

 

Yepp. This is exactly why I am keeping track, also with screenshots. Also, so that we can see with our own eyes how bad it is getting.

 

FYI I started another apolitical thread about what things might be like when this is all over.

Given that most of those in this thread are sticking to keeping this apolitical if you would like to contribute your thoughts and ideas in the other thread that would be appreciated.

http://politicalforum.com/index.php...d-people-stayed-home’.570685/#post-1071568438

 

Good information in the Cuomo presser.

China is DONATING 1,000 ventilators to NY. The ventilators are going to land today at JFK.
Oregon is offering NY 140 ventilators to NY to help-out.
Cuomo has thanked Oregon for the offer. And he mentioned the Lend-lease-Act (Roosevelt, 1940). He just promised to return the double amount of ventilators (280) to Oregon when all is said and done.

85,000 have volunteered to help man the hospitals in NY.

The ventilators that NY ordered from the US Gov. stockpile, they already paid for. Some of the ventilators didn't appear. So, NY got stiffed, it appears. I will report more on this later.

 

I saw a presser from the Louisiana Governor about the ordering of ventilators. Essentially he said that they were ordering way more than they needed from a bunch of vendors under the assumption that some of those vendors would not be able to fulfill the entire order.