Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

I just realized that the "top ten" is only nine. (Need more coffee.)

On the notes page of the model, you can download an Excel spreadsheet with the data. It has a "Top ten" filter, but lists the United States as #1, followed by top nine states. Haha.

So, Texas and California are predicted to be the 10th and 11th states with the most deaths:

Eleven states are predicted to account for 75% of the total mortality.

Texas 2.5% (cum 73%)
California 2% (cum 75%)

 

Edit: Numbers appear to have some daily discrepancies, but totals match.

A New York publication (https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus-statistics-tracking-epidemic-new-york) compared with the national model:

DAILY:






Let's look at totals through 4/4/2020. Those numbers appear to match.

Gothamist: looks like around 3,600 (site doesn't allow to click on the bar on the chart for exact number).
National model: 3,603

National model prediction for 4/5/20202: 4,613
Gothamist actual: Approx: 4,200

CUMULATIVE:

 

Agreed that any single data point can be incorrect for any number of legitimate reasons however if the model automatically adjusts based upon those data points then I would have expected the projections to be higher based upon the higher 4/2 value. It is almost as though there is a "target" range and the numbers and dates are being "adjusted" to stay within the "target range". Going to keep an eye on this and see if it is just an anomaly or if it trends. We know that China has been manipulating their death tolls and I have no doubt that it would be politically advantageous to downplay the actual numbers here in America. Right now it is just an oddity but one worth keeping an eye on. Hopefully it is just a glitch that might have been inadvertently introduced when they changed the coding.

 

I edited that post pretty heavily. I do not see the 668 deaths you mentioned for 4/2/2020 on either the local data or the national model.

Showing over 600 on 4/4/2020 on both charts.

The dailies and the totals are a fairly close match.

 

Maybe my cat can type out King Lear today.

 

Link ??

 

Local news: Three employees, one each at three different HEB grocery store locations tested positive for the virus. Two of the groceries are downtown, close to the university campus. One is in Round Rock, TX, a bedroom community which Austin has "grown into" over the years. The Round Rock store is about 2 blocks from the hospital and medical center.

I believe I will wear a mask when grocery shopping....even though they say a mask protects everyone else and not me.

 

When will you be moving to Red China then ??

 

The chances are unlikely but be careful not to touch your face when removing the mask. They can protect you by stopping very small droplets from your breathing but when you take the mask off you can contaminate your hand.

 

That was my mistake, sorry for the confusion, mea culpa.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Select NY and then scroll down to the Deaths per Day chart and look at the numbers for 4/4, 4/9 and 4/16.

4/4 668 actual
4/9 878 projected
4/16 608 projected.

 

Also wear food preparation gloves while shopping and if you don't wear regular glasses put on sunglasses while shopping.

 

I initially took your lead, looking for the over 600 number, but wasn't looking at the right date. No problem.

I'm glad the numbers look about right.

 

Fortunately, I've been buying the disposable vinyl gloves to clean the cat boxes for years...so I had almost a full box already before the hoarders wiped them all off the store shelves. I've been wearing them....but today I'm adding the mask!

I also had a couple of N95 masks in the garage for lawn mowing (allergies).

 

In which case you are about as protected as possible short of doing your shopping inside of a bubble.

 

I just went shopping for the week .... and wore a mask.

 

BUBBLE SHOPPING 2020!!

I am seeing a business opportunity, here....

 

Extreme Social Distancing

 

I think the "mask" comments were made early on to slow the inevitable run which obviously affects the healthcare industry. There is no question that any form of mask is better than nothing as it is a barrier. I think your decision to wear one along with the more important effort of staying as far away from other people as possible is a good one.
God Bless Texas kid. Stay safe.

 

I'm not sure if you saw this regarding the N95 masks, but some Stanford scientists were able to discover a way to sanitize the masks by placing them in an oven at 158 degrees F for 30 minutes. There is virtually no loss to the functionality of the mask.

https://iheartintelligence.com/stan...ks-sterilized-reused-low-temperature-heating/

 

This is based on the data in the worldometer site a few hours ago. There will be some changes to the numbers since then, but not to the percentages.

......TOTAL REPORTED CASES/TOTAL TESTS.........%TOTAL TESTS = CONFIRMED CASES

1- USA..........336,851/1,772,369....................................19%
2- Spain........131,646./355,000......................................37%
3- Italy...........128,948/691,461.......................................17%
4- Germany...100,132/918,460.......................................11%
5- France.........92,839/224,254........................................41%
6- China........ (# of tests not reported at worldometer site)....
7- Iran...............58,226/186,000.......................................31%
8- UK................47,806/195,524........................................24%
9- Turkey..........27,069/181,445........................................14%
10-Switzerland..21,176/158,000.......................................13%

 

That's a good tip! I was planning to tie a bandana over the mask, so the outside of the mask itself would have a little protection with something washable over it.

 

In Spain, the crematoria are running in 12-15 minute intervals, those who are bereaving (maximum group size: 5) are allowed to attend a 5 minute service with an attending priest before the casket is transported into the crematorium. All must stay at least 3 meters from the casket. A police officer is assigned to each of the crematoria, just to make sure that the social distancing rules are upheld. In many cases, people are not even sure that the person in the casket is the one that your family is mourning. The caskets are completely unmarked.

Again, this is going on in 12-15 minute intervals, between 4-5 times per hour.

They haven't even started to burn the bodies of the dead from last week - they are still working on the dead from the week before. There is a massive backlog.

 

Necessity is the mother of invention.

 

You're claiming that's happening right now...

But you're diverting from the point. Why don't we test people for the common flu before they have contact with the President? The common flu could kill him. Any disease could kill him. Hell, he could die during his sleep.

You are fear mongering.

 

It’s also a good way of avoiding difficult questions.