Why Trump will lose.

Another confession thanks...

 

That is the thing, that Trump didn't win as much as Hillary lost. Trump didn't do any better than McCain or Romney, it was just that the Republican propaganda machine succeeded in so tarnishing Hillary's reputation that many just didn't vote.

However this election is different. There is a lot of anti-Trump energy in the country. Hillary was seem as an adversary to Obama. Even their ideologies differ a bit. And of course, Obama is significantly more honorable than either Clinton. Thus Obama's support didn't translate to support for Hillary. Yet that energy for Obama is now behind Biden.

I think that it is women who will be the greatest factor in the election of 2020. It was the women's movement who was the motivation behind the Democrats winning the House in 2018, who pushed hardest for Trump's impeachment and are the strongest force within the Democratic Party.

When Trump was elected, Arizona's Senators were two Republican men. When Trump leaves office in January, Arizona's Senators will be two Democratic women.

Whereas the center of gravity of the Republican Party has shifted to somewhere around uneducated blue collar men, the center of gravity in the Democratic Party has shifted towards educated professional women. You can hear it by comparing the words of Trump to the words of Nancy Pelosi.

 

Exactly - Even with how remarkably horrible Hillary was as a candidate - she still managed to get more of the popular vote.

If Blue Shows up - Red loses - and they did not show up for Hillary.

I don't think it will be "women" per say - as women tend to stick to their party - but getting more women out and motivated will definitely have an impact and this is what I sense is happening - not just with women - but the electorate in general.

Covid taking out the economy lowers the value of Trumps biggest "Trump" cards .

All Blue has to do is avoid doing something really stupid

 

The wrong track poll . if it were just a few points, I wouldn't have posted it, but the spread on almost every poll, including the normally friendly-to-Trump Rasmussen poll, are all over 20 points. That's worth noting,, if you go back all the way to a year, in the points spread it's in "wrong track" all the way down through all polls by a significant spread. . See for yourself
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html#polls

There is major Trump exhaustion out there. Count on it.

I'm cautiously optimistic. I have a radical female friend ( bernie or bust type ) and she's not telling me she won't vote for Biden, and she did tell me that 2016, and that's a good sign . I think people understand, those who were bernie or bust, who sat it out last election, understand how dangerous this president is, and will come out this time and vote for Biden. It could be a landslide, we shall see.

 

Trump's Best Case is Losing with Biden 278/Trump 260

In that scenario, Trump holds holds the map from 4 years ago and loses back PA, MI,and WI.

Biden 278/Trump 260 (Trump's Best Case)

Biden 339/Trump 199 (Trump Nightmare Case)

(Where Biden Adds FL, NC, AZ, IA)

 

Source? ( 538? )

 

By 20 something points?

 

Source?

My expertise.

That is just how I see it.

Others can differ.

But, as of now, I see 278 EV as Biden's Worst Case.

Of course, a lot can happen in 6 months and all "predictions" are fluid.

 

Well, if you do not like propaganda, you must despise Trump. He's the master of it.

one of the tenets of propaganda is to accuse your opponents of the very thing you are guilty of.

Congratulations, you are very good at propaganda!

On 'socialism'.

You are, no doubt, referring to classical socialism. See, twisting Bernie's "democratic socialism" into "socialism' intentionally dropping the "democratic" from it, where you imply it's the kind of socialism practiced by the Soviet Union, when the truth is that Bernie's democratic socialism is nothing mare than FDR styled policies, you are engaging in propaganda, and that means you are guilty of #2 on the list, below.


. If you want to see propaganda, listen to Trump, every technique employed by Goebbels is faithfully propagated.

To wit;,



Another technique is for the leader to manufacture an enemy. With trump, there are two. 1. The press, 2. immigrants.
This is done to galvanize the flock. Trump is very good at this, better than presidents before him.

Trump is working right out of the demagogue play book. And you are buying it.

In fact, Trump employs just about every technique listed here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_techniques

Trump fans are not the majority and my point is that most people are sick of Trump. They are sick of his propaganda Really sick of him. He is nauseating.
I've never witnessed a more nauseating human being on the national stage than Trump. I don't think you understand how most people in the electorate see him.
You are going to find out in November.

 

I hope you are right.

 

When was the last time any election in the US used ballots?

 

I agree. There is also generalized exhaustion with the Establishment. The President is only one person - a cog in a wheel - although an important one with the ability to influence the wheel much more than other cogs .. still just one cog.

That said - I am exhausted with him - his Parlor Tricks have worn thin - his Bread and Circuses agenda exposed.
His exaggerations are legendary - and while all this is entertaining - and Trump is a great Frontman - this is not a circus.

He also made a great fall guy - although Teflon Don still persists. The sad thing is that rather than focus on Trumps major blunders of substance - Blue has focused on Stormy - Russiagate - Ukraingate.

So you tell me - which exhausts you more - A) Trump or B) Stormy - Russiagate-Ukraingate ?

Question 2 - Which does more damage to the nation A) Carrot Top or B) That our MSM - News is now on par with the National Enquirer or the Star ?

Short test You probably wished it was longer.

The voter was in a foul mood in 2016 - it will be no less foul this time. - coupled with Covid intensity sprinkled on top.

I was married to a Feminist - one of my friends in College ran the Women's Center (aka - a place Teaches Radical Feminism)
I succeeded in debates against the one - claiming that Feminism had become more about power and control than equality - that was 30 years ago. I can see individuals not voting Blue - but they are not going to run out and vote Red either.

It was not just about "Bernie or Bust" - It was about the dirty deeds done by Hillary/DNC released by Wiki - getting the debate questions prior to the debate - the media complicity against Bernie

https://alethonews.com/2018/04/23/msnbc-where-journalism-goes-to-die/

In the last election you did not know what you were getting with respect to Trump. This election you do. That is a big minus for Donald in general. Not because he has done badly - but because you know what you are getting. Take Abortion for example - did you really think Trump was going to be so "Anti Abortion" ? once in office .. regardless - you no longer have to guess.

Biden may be old and senile - and may have gotten his fingers a little to close to the honey pot and the cookie jar - but, he is for a women's right to her own body.

Abortion came up in a debate against Paul Ryan in the 2012 cycle. Biden said " I am a Catholic - for this reason I am against abortion - but I don't believe I should be able to force my religious beliefs on others"

If I knew nothing else about Joe - that he understands the Golden Rule is a solid point for him. Unfortunately - Joe is an Establishment wonk - who will likely continue with Blue's horrible environmental policy - even worse than the policy of Red in an Orwellian twist of fate.
Pipelines are much better for the Environment - and for our economy - Full Stop.

Obamacare did not address the systemic issues in our Healthcare system Obamacare was lipstick on a pig .
3.5 Trillion was the total spend in 2017. Red on the other hand does not even have a plan - but Blue is too fixated on Stormy to notice.

The voter is in a foul mood - Latino's and Blacks are united under Biden - Hillary isn't running - Biden got Bernie's blessing of a sort - its all cum by Ya and other campfire songs.

Then you have the demographic time bomb. The Red Platform does not appeal to the younger generation - which just got 4 years older. Trump never should have won the last election. Even as bad as Hillary was - alienating a large Blue movement "Smooth move Exlax"
she still got more of the popular vote - in an election that had a 20 yr low turnout.

This election should be a cake-walk for Blue - despite Blue's every effort to torpedo their chances.

 

I think you give Trump way too much credit. Trump, the president of low expectations, did not create the ideology or even his fan base. It has been being cultivated at least since the seventies through the efforts of the Heritage Foundation, the Cato Institute, and FOX News, along with the generous contributions from right wing talk radio. I think Trump is much more of a puppet than what he appears to be. He doesn't even try to govern. Throughout his presidency he has been little more than a ceremonial head of state.

It can even be said that Trump is a fabricated leader. In real life, he sucked horribly as a businessman. Even though he got $400,000,000 from his dad, he still managed to lose more than a billion dollars and bankrupted a couple of casinos. I'm sure that the real reason that Trump does not want his tax returns released is because they will show that he isn't nearly as wealthy as he claims to be.

I'd be willing to bet that the greater part of his wealth comes from his appearance on television. That his persona was developed through the fictional character he played. Perhaps he has even come to believe he is the character he played.

What gets characterized as propaganda, or clever politics is really just the instincts of a con man. Trump knows full well that he doesn't tell the truth and that he has spent a lifetime full of questionable dealings. He has no real defense so it falls to deny, deny, deny. Fake news, I didn't do it! Or to try to shift the focus by blaming others. Some of the more inflammatory positions Trump takes, are part of his worldview, a worldview he shares with his followers, which, in many ways, makes him one of them. He has just jumped out in front of the parade that was already in progress.

 

I bet you already did. So? Did you learn something new?

 

That statement is true, it's good that you at least accept it.
However, it only proves what I said is true- and that you seem to be totally engulfed in the democrat hogwash.
You also seem to be unable to keep count or score without ignoring the pertinent facts.

Time for you to recount; start with this important point:

How many investigations have created to attack Trump by the democrats?
How many investigations have been created to attack the Democrats by Trump?

If you can honestly answer that, you would know the wise thing to do would be to quietly go back to whatever shadow you came from before you embarrass yourself further.

Ask that same question about dozens of other shenanigans- slander, innuendo, accusations of treason, incompetence, any kind of trashy thing they can think up they throw out at who Trump.
Pretty much the same answer; the dems are the masters of such pathetic tactics, and sadly- it's all they have.

AND THEY KEEP FAILING AND LOSING, BUT DON'T LEARN A DAMN THING.....

But the dems do have some fish on the hook still thinking the bait they swallowed is some kind of free meal ticket. Guess who?

 

I never said, nor implied, he created anything. He has done, what any demagogue would do, and has done in the past. He's an opportunist. There always has been
the type of person that would vote for trump. I've met them in bars and parties all my life. Like the kind of guy I'd meet in a bar, the guy ranting and spout off right wing memes by the bucket full

In the 60s, almost all of these types were members of the John Birch Society. This group has tried to garner power within the republican ranks in the past, but, William F Buckley, the apparent granddaddy of republican politics whom any sensible conservative deferred to for as long as he was alive, as editor in chief of the National Review, ostracized them. After he died, all hell has sprung loose, there no longer is a king of conservatism to keep them in check.

I suppose I never understood his value to the right until he died, and the right lost their rudder. Now the birchers, who have morphed into the tea party an the freedom caucus, with a philosophical base aided by the likes of Ayn Rand, Milton Friedman, and others, are running the show. But all of Trump's followers aren't that intellectual enough to even know who Milton Friedman and ayn rad are, though some of them are.

Anyway, there always has been a cadre of such individuals, who view all taxes as encroachment on freedom. They spout goverment hate. Seew conspircy theories, such as teh "trilateral commission" the 'Illuminati" etc.

When Reagan repealed the fairness doctrine, the doctrine that dictated to news orgs that if you put dem on for 5 minutes, you had to put a repub on for 5 minutes, which was an albratross around the likes of guys like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, it paved the way for these guys to spout hate-the-left rhetoric unchallenged, further galvanizing this group. Trump, sensing they didn't have a real leader, took the reigns. Limbaugh resisted a bit, at first, but saw Trump as the guy to do his bidding, and calculated that, despite his faults, Trump could get taxes cut, and far right wing judges installed in gov. As for Trump's moral transgressions, they just glossed over it.

This group of disaffected government hating types has always been there, but they never had champion. Trump is an opportunist. He has changed his political affiliation 5 times since 1987. When he was a democrat, some argued he was a democrat. No, he's not anything, he's whatever he perceives is beneficial to Trump. He was a democrat for a spell during his reality TV show, and the only reason he was a democrat was that he knew most celebs were democrats, and to curry favor with them, viola, Trump is a democrat. That is why he was in tight, for a spell, with the Clintons, because they were in tight with celebs. Like L. Ron Hubbard, Trump loves celebs.

But, Trump decided he needed more publicity, and it was suggested to him to run for president. Now, he's been hinting at running for president since the late 80s, and, in fact, he did start a campaign circa 2000 under the "reform party", but it never went anywhere. Initially, and he admitted this in a TV interview, when he was asked, 'what do you think your chances of becoming president are" "I'd say about 20%" Trump said. He ran for president only as a publicity stunt, to garner more name recognition for the Trump brand. He NEVER intended to win. Remember the look on Trump's face when, just after he won, he was sitting next to Obama in the WH? He looked like someone who was thinking "what the hell have I done? " He looked depressed. It was fun running for prez, now he's got to be the prez. For a long time, Trump hated being president. But, I think he's gotten used to it, and is now enjoying the limelight and the power.

It was obvious that a guy like Trump could never win the white house as a democrat, noting that the DNC has 'super delegates' who do the DNC's bidding. The one good thing about super delegates, love them or hate them, the prevent a guy like Trump from high jacking the party. But, they are like antibiotics, they kill everything, a good outsider, too, like Bernie. Anyway, Trump saw an opportunity with the right, that there are many on the right, the disaffected who have been out there, like low hanging fruit, and in that group they have found their champion.

Of course he didn't create that crowd, they've always been out there, they just never had a champion before. I swear, 45% of America are a hard working lot, not especially bright, but they are very easy to manipulate, feed them a bucket full of thought-terminating clichés and one can easily control them to do your bidding.

A clever demagogue knows this. So, what Trump has done is galvanize this population, like a magnet galvanizing the inert electrons in a bar of iron. He's good at it, I'll grant him that, but he's ignorant, stupid, and interested in only one thing, power Not power for good, power for power's sake. There is no greater evil than to give a malignant narcissist the presidency, and America has done it. Not because it's the will of the people, but by a fluke of the electoral college.

Yes, it's true that Trump, when his father passed, got a quarter of the estate, and in today's dollars, that estate was worthy many millions. The Trump family also screwed the American tax payer out of some $400,000,000 and this was documented by investigative reporting by the NYTimes. A demagogue has to manufacture an enemy to galvanize his flock. With Hitler, it was the jews, with Trump, it is the press and immigrants ( Sorry Godwin, I had to compare demagoguery techniques, and Hitler was the master. I am not, in any way shape or form, suggesting that Trump is another Hitler. )

 

One thing is totally consistent here- and that being that the Trump haters, in the total absence of character- will support each others delusions, selectively collect "documentation" from other Trump haters and trade it between themselves calling it evidence, and keep the lies alive by telling them to each other, thinking that since so many agree with them, they must be right. You live in a kind of box that allows you to insulate yourself from contradictory evidence. Kind of like the ant on a basketball, thinking it's a flat surface and not being able to grasp it's shape because his perspective is so limited, being absolutely sure he is right. If it wasn't so despicable and dangerous, it would just be funny.

 

I feel saddened that our party has nominated yet another neolib ( all presidents, right and left, since Reagan, have been neolibs, though the right more than the left ).
But Biden is the presumptive nominee, and he is a hellava lot better than Trump. He'll nominate left and center left judges. He'll rebuild the state department, very needed and remove the suppression of science in the EPA. It's a move in the right direction, but not enough to appease more than half of the electorate. We should have nominated Bernie. But, bernie has made two distinct strategic errors. He was an independent ( he should have joined the DNC years ago ) and he decided, for some crazy reason, to call himself a 'democratic socialist" . And I don't even think Bernie knows what it is, it just sounds nice. ( to Bernie ).

 

As opposed to what? Republicans? Give me a break, the pile of stink, in putting Trump in the WH, rises to the sky. I know dems are not choir boys, but compared to the right, they certainly are.

I'm well aware of DNC's faults, but the Green Party has no caucus. AS for 'fail' I beg to differ, witness our taking the house by a landslide.

That's a bad omen for Trump.

Your questions have false premises, and arise out of viewing the world through a particular lens, which I do not share.

If there ever were a man that needs to be held accountable for his life's transgressions, it's Trump.Investigating him is the right thing to do, and he needs to be incarcerated. The sooner the better. WE don't jail our political opponents, but Trump is more than an opponent, he is a criminal. With Trump, I will make an exception to that principle. With some luck, if Biden wins, he'll put Harris as attorney general. That should do the trick.

 

I find it amusing you attribute to the left, what the right is guilty of, in spades. Right back atcha, pal.

I'll match facts with you, any day of the week, and we can start with some facts: the two biggest economic upheavals in modern times, republicans were in power, the crashes of 1929 and 2008, and the only time in modern history there ever was a budget surplus, a democrat was president.

Don't lecture me about 'contradictory facts' puhleeze, you are sounding like a kool - aid drinker.

As for 'trump haters'. I never loathed a man as much as I loath Trump, and all my dem friends are the same on that point.

But the fallacy you right wingers make, is that he is loathed in a vacuum, like we are making **** up. There are plenty of reasons to loathe Trump. I'll sum it up for you in a short sentence. To the bone, he is a despicable human being, a fact of which you seem totally oblivious to. There are some 22 books published recently detailing all the reasons he's worthy of any reasonable person's contempt . It's like we are a in room full of people, and everyone in the room can smell the huge turd sitting in the center, but you.

 

Something you need to be aware of is that they people, in all their lack of understanding and selfishness- elect leaders. The weaker and dependent people who want the world to adjust to them, to fit them in and care for them- elect the candidates who tell them what they want to hear. The stronger and independent people want the right to make their own way, and realize that they must fit into the world, rather than the other way around. This is a matter of maturity as well as character. Children want what they want, and hate the parents for not giving it to them. The best leaders, like the best parents, stay the course they know is right, and don't do the wrong things just to appease the whiners. They are never popular with all, and even though the irresponsible will benefit from such leadership, they always lack the character to appreciate it. After all, they all feel entitled, feel the world owes them, and the fact they exist is sufficient to warrant they deserve all that without further contribution. There are always more weak people than strong ones- our future depends on enough of them growing and maturing in time to become responsible as each election comes along, and not vote like self-serving children anymore.

 

You are new here. Seems we get members from time to time that think that a discussion is really a pissing match, and the person making the biggest puddle is somehow winning.
Your loathing and hate control you; that is obvious- and it discredits the validity of your view and outrage, but you fail to realize that. An honest person can have a very critical view and support it without resorting to expressions of hate and a barrage of generic derogatory labels.

Trump's biggest flaw is that he isn't democrat. If he was wearing their brand, they would be worshiping him like the second coming of Jesus- because that is the real issue here. It's not principle, it's their power and egos that has suffered, and they desperately want revenge for it. They lost when they thought they were invincible, and the spewing of hate, the cultivation of hate in people like you was started the moment he announced he would run- and exploded into lunacy the moment he won. It's been non-stop ever since, and despite all the sabotage schemes that are unprecedented in our electoral history- the alignment of so much media willing to distort facts and even fabricate fake news- the garbage barrage continues to achieve nothing. Sadly, that only enrages the left more. Worst demonstration of bad character in any political group in our history.

You're standing on a foundation of sand here, perhaps quicksand. It's what the democrats seem to believe is real, but it can't really stand on it's own. When they have a problem- it's always somebody elses fault. When they want to do something, they look for somebody elses pocket to pick to pay for it. They don't think things our for the future- like children- it's what they see or want right now. It's a kind of delusion they have to feed by feeding on others.

The democrat you should be quoting is JFK:

"Ask not what your country can do for you- Ask what you can do for your country".
Could be the reason he was assassinated, that kind of talk deeply offends many on the left. Always has; worse now than ever. Too many boys- not enough men.

 

Did not have to do that. A very unpleasant instructor splained it all to me in a military school.
Google is a much more supportive teacher.

 

Hoover and Bush were progressive presidents.