CDC: Coronavirus Fatality Rate 0.26%, 8-15x Lower than Estimates

and its probably lower then that the CDC has a history of overinflating thier estimated
backed up by other studies done world wide

.1 to .4% thats in the ball park of the seasonal Flu
CDC had the 2017-2018 Flu season mortality rate at .2%

so the corona virus mortality rate probably is no worse then the seasonal Flu

and for the next argument i know you chicken littles want to make
but but 100 thousand dont die from the seasonal Flu
well its close
2017-18 Flu season we had over 80,000 deaths contributed to the Flu

and evidence has been provided proving the death toll has been inflated
for example in many instances people that died from gun shot wounds was reported as death caused by the virus
and allowing doctors to list cause of death on the virus and not requiring a test to be conducted to determine if indeed the dead was infected I'm sure contributed to the inflation

so it boils down to this which facts back up

We shut down the economy locked people up in thier homes ruined many small business causing millions to lose thier jobs for an outbreak after all is said and done turned out to be no worse then a bad Flu season

 

Yep. The Chicken Little “sky is falling” people are being shown to be more and more incorrect by the day.

The only good thing is that we will not shut down again if we get a new round of this. People have seen the futility and destruction of doing that.

If we get a new round the poor liberals heads will explode when we do not shut the world down again.


Cue the 100,000 dead rebuttals, 0.02% of the population. To them that is reason enough to throw millions into possible poverty across the country and globe. Of course we may very well lose many times that number to famine alone coming out of this shutdown.

https://www.theworldcounts.com/chal...ity/how-many-people-die-from-hunger-each-year

3.5 million dead of starvation before the shutdown, what it be after? That’s a little too “big picture” for the left as they hide their heads in the sand and quiver.

 

There is a thread on this exact topic on the front page of this forum which has been getting posts for the last 72 hours.

The CDC estimate is likely too low, but I would like to note that your attempt to continue comparing this virus to the seasonal flu is both wholly inaccurate (the CDC estimate for the 2017-2018 estimate was 60,000 - not 80K) and relies on counting the Influenza deaths in a different manner.

If we counted seasonal influenza deaths in the same way that we count covid-19 deaths, then the deadliest year on record for the flu killed around 15,500 Americans.

 

If we lose many times that number to famine alone, then that is another failure by Trump.

100,000 dead Americans in 8 weeks is the exact ****ing opposite of chicken little.

 

Why do you think the CDC estimate is likely to be too low?

 

Scientists Say New, Lower CDC Estimates For Severity Of COVID-19 Are Optimistic

 

~ The head of the CDC is yet another who needs a "You're fired! ".
These idiots with letters after their names and big salaries are held out to be "experts" responsible for life and death - yet do nothing but make inaccurate predictions and report based on observation. Our own grandparents knew better than these fakes !

 

I have also been tracking the data myself for months across the world. I have an excel devoted specifically to determining the mortality rate in countries based on comparing their confirmed resolved cases against their reported death counts. Of the countries who have lost at least 1000 people and who have achieved a steady and consistent decline of cases and deaths to the point where I feel comfortable saying that they are past the first wave of the pandemic, the lowest mortality rate is around 3.52% for Turkey. And that is significantly below the other countries.

The other countries are:

Germany: 4.98%
Switzerland: 6.35%
Ireland: 7.02%
Iran: 6.41%
China: 5.59%

 

so you argument is the CDC overinflated 2017-18 flu deaths but arent overinflating corona virus deaths
lol
So either the CDC is credible or not so which is it?

 

Let's say you are correct (and I'd prefer to hear what the CDC says about its own numbers, not what Breitbart says). If the mortality rate is the same . . . the infection rate is far worse. When has the season flu killed this many people?

 

Craft a better argument next time.

The CDC estimate of 60,000 for those years is not overinflating, nor are they are overinflating the Covid-19 deaths. The estimate that they use for the Influenza years is based on mathematical modeling. The Covid-19 deaths are based on death certificates and medical reports. If influenza deaths were counted in the same way, i.e. not using mathematical modeling, then the deadliest year killed around 15,500.

To put it another way, if you used mathematical modeling to estimate the number of covid-19 deaths, then the number is likely significantly higher than 100,000.

 

in 2017-2018 the CDC said 80,000 died from the seasonal flu so yah close
and if you would have read all of my post you would have known that

 

so CNN is lying?
Flu season deaths top 80,000 last year, CDC says
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html

and US News
CDC: 80,000 People Died From Flu Last Season
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-care-news/articles/2018-09-27/cdc-80-000-people-died-of-flu-complications-last-season-in-us

and Web MD
80,000 Americans Died From Flu Last Year
https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20180927/80000-americans-died-from-flu-last-year

and NBC
At least 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., CDC says
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/least-80-000-people-died-flu-last-winter-u-s-n913486

 

Hmm... so you stay shut un in your domicile, never ventured out, wear a mask and gloves around the residence, etc? I so doubt it. Tell us, if you were uninfected, would you follow the law and wear a mask anyway? And if so, what benefit do you believe it would provide you? Simply not being arrested? It seems ludicrous that folks like you continue to breathlessly dance around hysterically when the likely truth is that folks like you simply never agree that said law or standards actually apply to you, just the other folks you don't like or trust It's been the model now for decades. You didn't just suddenly change.

 

Over the course of the entire year, not over a few months. And that's without social distancing. And the CDC says ~60,000, not 80,000. So, no, not close. If you had done your homework, you'd know that.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

60,000 in a year, without social distancing <
100,000 in a few months, with social distancing

This isn't complicated.

 

None of them are lying. Jesus man. They reported the initial estimate.

Go to the CDC website yourself if you don't trust me. I don't give a flying ****. They lowered the estimate to 60K.

 

First, why are you pretending to care about what CNN and NBC have to say? Everyone knows you don't. I sure don't. Meanwhile, why are you relying on old estimates reported by third parties? If you cared about what the CDC had to say, you'd just go the the CDC. Why won't you?

 

So it’s like the flu if we did not have a flu shot option, most likely not as severe. Would we close down the world if one year we were unable to give flu shots? I dont think so, do you?

And you over looking that we have a flu season when those deaths occur, and it’s not 12 months long so your “in a year” vs “ a few months” is not accurate. But I’m betting you knew that huh?

 

flu season is 4 to 5 months long

 

We've had over 100,000 (as a LOW estimate, frankly, over the course of a few months) with another spike predicted in the winter. And that's with social distancing. Even if we had no more COVID deaths for the rest of the year (and you know that is insane I'm betting, huh?), it would still be way more than we've had from the flu. You know this. Don't pretend not to. The fact that we don't have a vaccine is MORE of a reason to be cautious, not less.

 

so now you are admitting that the CDC initially over estimated the amount of flu deaths? but in no way are the over estimating corona virus deaths

you keep making my argument for me

 

I have no idea what you are trying to get at here. Are you just trying to imagine how I have personally survived and lived during this pandemic? Then just ask me instead of trying to fabricate my daily choices.

 

Sweden did a survey of z

So, you think it because 4 out of 7 experts said so. Fair enough. I hold with the other three.

Antibody testing in Sweden show 7.5% of Stockholm residents had antibodies to the virus and were infected before 4/15 and a little arithmetic show an IFR of about 0.24 percent, right in line with the CDC.

A similar calculation done with NY antibody test data yields a similar result.

I don't think the confirmed cases statistic gives you any information about how many have been infected. It depends too much on how many are tested and who are tested. Surveys of random samples of antibodies does provide that information. Thus Sweden can say that 7.5% of Stockholm has been infected. Confirmed cases don't give you that information.

What do you do with the information that France, Belgium, Spain, et. al. have mortality rates in excess of 15%?

 

60,000 deaths in 4-5 months vs 100,000 deaths in less, with the winter still to come. Even with social distancing in the later case and not in the former. Don't pretend that you can't do the math here.

 

The reason why Covid-19 is so much more dangerous than the flu is because we don't have a vaccine or antivirals. Is that really so ****ing shocking to you?