Herd immunity from sanity

"A study of hundreds of thousands of people across England suggests immunity to the coronavirus is gradually wearing off - at least according to one measure. Researchers who sent out home finger-prick tests to more than 365,000 randomly selected people in England found a more than 26% decline in Covid-19 antibodies over just three months."

More studies on this are on the way.

But there are 2 takeaways. As is the case with colds and the flu, immunity doesn't last. Which means letting the disease kill hundreds of thousands, in an idiotic attempt to get herd immunity, buys you absolutely nothing.

The other takeaway is that internet insta-experts should zip it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/26/health/covid-19-immunity-wanes-large-study-finds/index.html

 

Quote from the study...

"With coronaviruses, scientists know less. It's also unclear what contribution T cell immunity and the body's memory responses to threats like Covid-19 will play in providing protection if someone is exposed again to the novel coronavirus. More research is needed to better understand the ongoing risks of reinfection."

And yet here the internet insta expert is, splainin to us and all....

 

I would suspect that the flu season shouldn't be a particularly bad one if everyone is wearing masks...

 

I said there are two takeaways.

You can try to argue against what I said, but so far you haven't said anything. I said in the OP that more studies are on the way. But what would be genuinely surprising, at this point, is an enduring immunity. You don't get that from Covid's cousins, and now we have a study that confirms it. Of course we need more studies, we always need more studies.

But the people that have been saying we should let the disease kill millions just got shown to be rum idiots.

 

I am unaware of anyone that has actually said "we should let the disease" do what you've suggested. And let's try to be honest about this then. Given your hypothesis here, if there can be no lasting immunity, doesn't that entirely cut the efficacy of any vaccine? So, in your estimation, if there is no lasting immunity, then what? Everyone does what exactly? Do tell.

 

We've had maybe a hundred posts by guys arguing for getting herd immunity by letting the disease go.

Of course not.

When epidemiologists talk about herd immunity, they mean vaccinating enough of the population that the disease simply can't infect large numbers of people.

 

I'm sure they'll start posting info from epidemiologists who support their case any day now . . . right?

 

And then he moved the goal posts..... cause the lame argument previously held failed.... LOL

 

Should you “zip it” because you’ve presented misinformation on the internet? Let’s start with your claim that immunity to colds and flu don’t last. That’s blatantly false. You do not get reinfected with the same flu or cold virus. Flu viruses undergo rapid antigenic drift (and sometimes exhibit antigenic shift) so there are always “new and improved” viruses to give you flu symptoms again. But it isn’t the same virus.

Cold coronaviruses mutate at much slower rates than influenza viruses so exhibit much less antigenic drift. However, there are many strains (a lot that were formed by recombination as opposed to antigenic drift) so you can get a coronavirus cold again. Just like influenza though, you don’t get infected with the same virus twice.

At this point we have no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is exhibiting enough antigenic drift to have new strains impervious to antibodies or B and T cells that result from infection with the virus we have today.

Moving on to your link, it’s important to remember CNN is only presenting information that fits their agenda. Surprisingly they even admit this is the case.

The tests used for the study in your link only detect the first wave of antibodies produced during infection. We now know a second wave of more long lasting antibodies exists. Below is one study with this evidence. Newer more sophisticated antibody tests are not only more “accurate”, but test for more important and more long lasting antibodies than early tests (and some less specific ones still in use today). In short, just because a certain test can’t detect long lasting antibodies doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Studies like the one below show longer lasting antibodies do exist.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-sars-cov-antibodies-immunity.amp

I suggest if you want to tell others to zip it you may want to present more factual information yourself in the future.

 

hand washing
hand washing
hand washing

your mask doesn't protect you from the virus on surfaces that you touch and then rub your eyes

 

And hand washing doesn't slow the spread of airborne particulates. It's better to go with both, along with distancing when you can.

 

I've not read 1 comment stating that the disease should be allowed to kill millions. Look to Sweden and their per capita death rate year over year and 2020 is no worse than other years and that's with covid

And Sweden did what??????????? That's right, no lockdowns and no masking up

 

mask and distancing?

Interesting: yesterday I saw a Biden sign holder who was about 75 feet away from anyone, yet masked up. Do you think that was more symbolism than being needed? Please note how the mask has now been used for politics despite the reality

 

It is very rare for people to go out in public knowing that they are always able to appropriately distance at all times. Almost impossible. I try to distance, but at some point when I'm out I'm still going to be fairly close to someone. So, yeah, you should probably at least have a mask with you to put on when.

I agree about masks being politicized . . . but mostly by Trumpists.

 

1) Thanks for moving the goalposts. The study showed immunity is temporary.

2) That will be great if other studies confirm it, and nail down the time frame a little better.

I am perfectly willing to admit I may have made a mistake, if you will acknowledge that the herd immunity guys are out of their squash.

 

Nope, that was explaining how it should be used.

 

I seem to recall that someone posted saying that. I think it was shown there was a decline in flu cases for this year. Can't remember who posted it though. It makes sense if people are wearing masks, washing their hands and socially distancing. Maybe this year will be a lesson to everyone to keep doing those things after the pandemic.

 

The infection mortality rate of covid-19 is going down. This is due in part to the well known epidemiology phenomena of viral attenuation aka Muller's ratchet. As the virus mutates it gradually becomes less lethal. As such when young healthy people are infected the virus acts as a vaccine creating antibodies which kill the original infection and providing immunity against reinfection. This can occur repeatedly.

CDC infection survivability rate data clearly shows that the virus is deadly to those who are elderly with preconditions.

Age group under 19 - 99.997%

Age group 19 - 49 - 99.98%

Age group 50 - 69 - 99.5%

Open up the economy and let the young and healthy go back to work. Take extra precautions to protect the elderly with preconditions. Implement the Great Barrington Plan in the Great Barrington Declaration.

https://gbdeclaration.org/

The link below is behind a paywall. Google covid herd epidemiologists to read the entire piece if interested.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/epidem...covid-herd-11603477330?mod=opinion_major_pos7

 

And, based on daily fatality rates, the pandemic in Sweden is over and has been since mid July. Positive tests are going up but those are for healthy individuals who exhibit no or very light symptoms.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

"Sounds great, right? Just one problem: The vast majority of infectious disease physicians, virologists, and epidemiologists don’t support it—and in fact, most of the scientific community believes that this approach will actively hurt vulnerable people rather than protecting them. “The authors are well known people in public health, but they don’t represent anything like a consensus view about how to approach COVID,” Yale University epidemiologist Gregg Gonsalves told me. “The rest of the people in their field are looking at them aghast.” Indeed, the public health community has swarmed to point out the many problems with the Great Barrington plan, and many have also called out Jacobin for promoting it.

Yale University epidemiologist Gregg Gonsalves told me “We haven’t even been able to protect people in nursing homes,” says Gonsalves. “Now these people are saying let’s open up and we’ll somehow shield the vulnerable? It’s a recipe for disaster.”

https://www.motherjones.com/politic...g-is-championed-as-good-for-the-poor-its-not/

 

What vast majority ?? You have quoted one.

Additionally lockdowns are regressive economically and the overwhelming majority of elderly people at risk (I am one of them) are in favor of opening up the economy to the economic and social well being of our kids and grandkids. Lockdowns kill. They don't stop the spread and they kill people in many other but different ways.

 

really, in the case of the aforementioned Biden sign holder, who was under a tree and far away from everyone, would you think that maybe the marching orders were to mask up and more so as symbolic because covid has been the only thing that Democrats have been able to use

 

I don't really care about random anecdotes. Neither should you. Rational people shouldn't. If I see a Karen throwing a fit about wearing a masks in Applebees, does that prove something?