China's economy to overtake US in next four years, says OECD

You don't even address the majority of my posts and harp on the 600 million comment like you've got some kind of mental disease. You ignore what I say about the interests of institutions (especially a Bretton Woods institution), and act like a difference in data means you're right. I'm guessing you've never looked at studies before and just count on your physical experiences in China to get you through the day, but it's a fact of statistics that different sources and methodologies produce different results. If you don't know this already you're an idiot.

I've tried having a fruitful discussion with you, but your head is so far up the ass of the Chinese government that you're not interested in rational debate. You've demeaned everyone in this thread that has disagreed with you without cause, even if they present factual information. Get over yourself.

 

Oh so not you need to insult me. Oh well.

 

I have only dished out what you have given. If you're upset about that you need to conduct your business in a more professional manner.

Disagreeing doesn't mean demeaning. I disagree vehemently with Ragin Cajun on a lot of things and our exchanges have been cordial, productive, and enjoyable.

 

I have not insulted you once but you have insulted me a few times in one post. It is not my fault that you cannot be civil when discussing a subject and have to revert to insults.

 

Dismissing an argument as stupid without just cause is an insult to people's intelligence. Telling people that their existence in a thread is basically redundant and pointless is an insult. Acting like you're an expert on Chinese politics and economics by virtue of being there for a few weeks is an insult to reason.

 

You are the one who has insulted me personally, you should try and be more civil. All I have done is point out your errors and you are unhappy about it and then insulted me. I am allowed to critcise your posts,they are fair game and not against the rules but you abused me personally and that is against the rules.

 

I have no problem with being wrong, but when posts full of arguments are dismissed off hand because of one factual inaccuracy it's an exercise in arrogance and a severe lack of critical thinking.

 

I covered all your points, I dismissed them when you just repeated them because I already answered you. You seem unhappy that I do not agree with your opinion on China and reverted to insulting me. Now that say to me that you failed.

 

You nit-picked over the number of middle class people in China without getting at the root of my initial argument, which was reformism in China and the future of it with Xi in charge while the Politburo is stacked with Jiang's hardliners. Hence the mention of Bo, which is brought up in many arguments about Chinese reformism.

 

You can call it nit picking, I call it correcting your obvious mistake. I covered that and your piece on the Islands/Abortion and interest rates. If I did not cover everything in your post it is because I have that choice,that you do not like it and have to insult me would say to me that your arguments were not formulated very well and you had no other recourse. I will point out also that your argument over abortion was not even well thought out. After I answered you, you came back with condoms and education but the fact is that population is so much of a problem in China that it has to be controlled by the government, you cannot depend on individuals not to have more babies than the country can support.

 

Given the regulations, taxation, and litigation rampant in the US, this assertion is entirely possible.

Thanks Hussein Obama.

 

This will all hinge on how China handles its housing market slowdown. There is still a possibility of a catasrophic crash. If it doesn't happen, it is very plausible that China will overtake the US eventually in terms of economic power. If you look at statistics in 2012 regarding the public view on the world's future economic power, 46% say it will be China. This is up from just 15% back in 2000.

 

china's housing "crash" was the result of government policy discouraging over investment in property which was pushing prices up.

china's economy is still growing (at a slower rate - but hey its bigger now, so a "slowdown" still means its growing rapidly) and this growth is largely fuelled by an increase in domestic spending. Chinese city based workers have experienced income increases of 10 - 15% in the last year or so.

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2012/s3632106.htm

yes it will be the world's biggest economic power - soon.

and India, Indonesia, Brazil and a few others are also booming.

 

Apparently you have no concept of basic macroeconomics. I will try and explain. You do realize that if China continues to slow down and drop below the 6% to 8% threshold that the "middle class" will disappear. China is NOT the US. The US economy was built up domestically and eventually went global. China is doing the reverse and started off globally and is trying to grow domestically as well. It is much easier to do it the first way than the second because the first way is somewhat self sufficient and simply needs domestic resources which are easier to control and acquire. The second way is much more difficult because you have to deal with international competition, resources are sporadic (note the metals shortage world wide right now). China has seen markedly reduced exports since the recession from both the US and from the EU it's two biggest customers. China is having to deal with internal issues such as the artifically price controlled housing market now collapsing as people bought homes are now finding themselves underwater. Sound familiar? Chinese workers are demanding more pay but because of the drop in exports the factories don't have the resources and often shut the plants down. If they slide into a full blow recession the Chinese middle class will disappear within a year or two precisely because they are so dependant on foreign resources coming into the country. There are simply not enough people with money in China to sustain a domestic economy on it's own.

Try and keep up to date would you.

 

oh dear ... so are you saying that the US's GDP was growing at a rate consistently above 6% during the "post war boom" that was marked with numerous recessions ... in 1949, 1953, 1958, 1960 - 61, and 1969 - 70?

your textbooks are way out of date and not keeping up with a changing world - countries which have the largets growth in middle class populations are all in the emerging nations, and these countries will see continuing increases in demand. Its not only China, it is also in many SEA. Latin American and South Asian countries. even parts of Africa are getting a slice of the new economic pie and experiencing a groeing middle class and increasing demand. the trade relationships between these nations and China are also groeing in significance. Chinese investment in overseas interests (in a whole range of areas) is also growin g.

your distaste of the notion of a more collectivist society is blinding you to the fact that stable government, with a consistent plan that isn't influenced by the mass hysteria that sometimes passes for democracy, can be a good thing for an economy.

 

LOL. I am sorry who built up China's economy because it certainly wasn't China. Your ignorance of American societies socioeconomic makeup versue China's is monumental. The US had a largely urbanized population that was educated and manufacturing was commonplace versus China which had a rural, uneducated agrarian society. The US imports alot of it's goods precisely because of the success of it's society dometicially. China was a poor country up until it started exporting to the US and other countries. Had they not been their to support China their boom never would have happened. I honestly don't know how to explain it further until you educate yourself on the differences internally versus externally driven economies and societies.

China went absolutely nowhere until foreign businesses decided to exploit the vast amounts of cheap labor. China eventually caught onto the game but they put all their eggs into one basket and now they have seen 11 straight months in decline of their GDP which is very bad for they style of economy. The US and the EU must recover before China can recover. In biology when one organism requires another organism to survive it is labeled either symbiotic or parasitic neither of which is good. China could disappear tomorrow and the US would still hum along. They would just start getting their exports from South America or from Africa or from other South East Asian countries. If the US disappeared tomorrow China would completely collapse in on itself. You really need to take some economics courses.

I also suggest taking a math class or too concerning your comment about the growth of the middle class around the world. Perhaps you have heard of diminishing returns? It is much easier for the middle class to grow in previously poor countries versus already established wealthy countries because they are starting from zero or a very small number.

 

It certainly was China and its governments policies that built up the Chinese economy,no one else did it as no one else has the power to set policy in the Chinese government. I would certainly like to see your evidence the rather bogus claim you are making.

 

What nonsense, most of the yoke of communism was simply removed. It is the Chinese government that prevented it from occuring a long time ago.

 

Obama will be the last US president to preside over the world's largest economy. It's all downhill from here for the US.

 

Who removed it? The Chinese government. See you just contradicted your own argument.

 

Deng Xiao Ping.

 

There is no contradiction

 

You do not even know what you are posting, you posted that what I posted was nonsense when I claimed that obviously the Chinese were responsible for the change in the economy of China and no one else.

You said this

What nonsense, most of the yoke of communism was simply removed. .

Yes most of the yoke of communism was removed, by who? The Chinese, so your claim that what I said was nonsense is a contradiction of your own post.

 

The Chinese have disempowered American workers. Maybe that's because the average Chinese is smarter than the average American.

 

I was disputing your claim of "governments policies" building up the economy. Quite the opposite, it was the removal of governmental restrictions implemented as governments policies. If I imprison you for 50 years and then release you, Im not the cause of your freedom. My policies didnt create your state of freedom, they took it away.