Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Referring to yesterday's projections for yesterday, 2022-02-003, indeed, there were 8 rubrik changes, but India just missed 42 million cases, while Mexico indeed

    -the USA exceeded 77,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases
    -BRAZIL exceeded 26,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases
    -FRANCE exceeded 20,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases (30.6% of that nation's population, to note)
    -POLAND exceeded 5,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases
    -MEXICO exceeded 5,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases
    -ISRAEL exceeded 3,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases (33% of that nation's population, to note)
    -GREECE exceeded 2,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases

    Instead, India did this:

    -INDIA exceeded 500,000 total confirmed Covid-19 deaths, only the 3rd nation on Earth to achieve this gruesome marker.

    Here the updated history:

    2022-02-003 History.png

    And the update millions-tables:

    2022-02-003 Millions table.png

    And the raw data from 2022-02-003:

    2022-02-003 Worldwide 001 - total cases.png
    2022-02-003 Worldwide 002 - total cases.png

    You will also notice that our world jumped "only" +3 million cases yesterday, with Thursday traditionally being the heaviest day of the week. Thursday one week ago (2022-01-027) it was 3.7 million and on the Thursday before that (2022-01-020) it was +3.8 million, show yesterdays number shows a considerable and very welcome drop-off in relation to one and two weeks ago.

    -Stat

    PS. Today, 2022-02-004, Russia, has clocked in with +168,201 new Covid-19 cases (it was +155,768 yesterday). Also, yesterday I wrote that "Japan is getting closer and closer to +100,000 cases" and today, it happened in Japan for the 1st time, with (currently) +103,038 cases. Yesterday, South Korea reported right under +24,000 cases, bringing it over 900,000 total cases. Today, South Korea has just reported over +27,000 cases, which caused it to leapfrog over Tunisia in the rankings. Now at 934,656, if South Korea keeps up this pace, then it will soar over the million-mark next Monday, either concurrent with or just after Bulgaria.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2022
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  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Today, Saturday, 2022-01-005, South Korea jumped +36,362 cases, moving it to a total of 971,018 cases, now only -28,982 away from the million mark. Things have really picked up in South Korea in the last 4 days, so it is entirely possible that that asian nation will jump over the million mark tomorrow, Sunday, 2022-01-006 instead of Monday, and will probably do this ahead of Bulgaria. Just to make this clear, 4 days ago, South Korea was UNDER 900,000 cases. So, although we see the brakes being applied to the Omikron-wave, it is not receding everywhere.
     
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  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    SOUTH KOREA EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON 2022-02-006, 51st NATION TO DO SO

    Today, Sunday, 2022-02,006, South Korea jumped over the 1,000,000 mark in total C19 cases:

    2022-02-006 SOUTH KOREA 000 - worldometer - closeup.png

    2022-02-006 SOUTH KOREA 000 - worldometer.png


    The South Korean values may or may not change a tad by tomorrow morning, they are therefore currently semi-final. That being said, they are very likely to be final when all is said and done. I will report back on this.

    Because South Korea went over 1,000,000 cases on a Sunday, I can screenshot the excel table:

    2022-02-006 SOUTH KOREA 000.png

    Here you can see a massive almost 2-fold jump in +cases in CW5 over CW4 and a more than 2-fold jump in +cases in CW4 over CW3. We saw an almost identical pattern with Slovakia exactly one week ago today.

    With South Korea's entrance into the million-club, that makes for the 9th nation that has crossed over the million mark in 2022 and the 51st overall. The first 42 nations crossed over that line in 2020-2021.

    Here the updated millions club table:

    2022-02-006 SOUTH KOREA 000 - millions club ranking.png

    Bulgaria is currently hanging just below the 1,000,000-mark (993,255, -6,745 away from the million-marker), has not reported in yet for today and will likely also jump the million-fence today. Bulgaria tends to report very late in the evening my time, sometimes during the night for the day before. Either way, Bulgaria is set to become the 52nd nation on earth to join the million-club. So, we will probably end up with 2 nations jumping over the 1,000,000 line today.

    In the line-up below Bulgaria for the same -perhaps all of them within this coming week- are 5 additional nations, not necessarily in the order in which they will join the million-club: Croatia, Lebanon, Nepal, Tunisia and Norway. Norway, which has not yet reported in for today, is not at 900,000 quite yet (883,388 ) but is adding well over +20,000 cases per day and will likely leapfrog over a number of other nations that are currently closer to 1,000,000 in the next days. One week ago, on 2022-01-030, Norway had the highest +case growth rate of all 74 of my tracked nations, to note.

    Life comes at us fast.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2022
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  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Ok, I have increased the tracked nations from 74 to 75, adding the Palestinian Territories, also known as the "PA", to the list. For the sake of simplicity and without any political overtones, because it is written as "Palestine" at Worldometer, I will keep the name as such here as well.

    Also, when the analysis comes out tomorrow for the CW ending yesterday, 2022-02-006 (CW-05), you will see something new in the table (this screenshot shows the top 37 of 75, in alphabetical order):

    2022-02-006 Top 75 trend explanation.png

    Right now, I am calling it "trend over CW before", although that is technically not really quite correct since a trend is usually measured over a longer period of time, but for lack of a better word I am using "trend" for now.

    You will see in that column the use of three possible symbols: a thick up arrow (in red), a thick down arrow (in green) and a thinner sideways arrow that goes in both directions (in yellow-gold). Sometimes, the up or down arrows are even doubled.

    A red up arrow means that there were more plus cases at the end of this CW (CW-05) than were measured in the week before (CW-04), while a down arrow obviously means the opposite. The flat, thinner sideways arrow means that the change was so minimal in either way that it was a true plateau.

    You will notice that the raw figures for yesterday, 2022-02-006, are not yet in the table, but I have input them in the respective excel tables. Until tomorrow morning, using the "2 days ago function", they are not final and a handful of them are bound to change. And then they will be input into the top 75 nations table.

    But right now I can already tell you that at least 37 of 75 nations are currently down arrows (and are not going to change) and 3 are flat plateau arrows, with the figures for 6 nations not even recorded yet (Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, Ecuador, Costa Rica and Finland), plus the figures for Ireland are so close and usually Ireland updates, I cannot characterize that small nation quite yet. This means that at this moment, only 28 nations show a larger amount of +cases over the figures from the week before, but this is sure to rise some. Either way, as of this CW, I can already tell you that more nations show a verifiably ebbing of the Omikron wave than the nations that show continued growth. And as you will see later, geography is most definitely playing a role, here, at least for now.

    A double up-arrow means that at least twice as many +cases were registered in this last CW over the CW before, making those nations verifiable drivers of the furtherance of the pandemic. Those nations with double down-arrows are exactly the opposite: they recorded half (or less than half) of the +cases compared to the CW before. Those nations are definitely putting the brakes on the pandemic. You will see tomorrow that a least half of the dreadnaught nations in our world are verifiably past the peak of the Omikron wave, no doubt about it. The numeric difference is just too big to put it any other way.

    Soon, I will be using a similar trend system for +deaths as we proceed to the last 1/3 of this wave.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2022
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

    COVID-19 WEEKLY concise analysis: 2022-01-031 (Monday) through 2022-02-006 (Sunday)
    (UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
    CALENDAR WEEK 05
    Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations from 10,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards


    THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 75 NATIONS
    Currently, the figures for worldwide composite figures and 10 of the 75 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a weekly basis.
    Spain and Germany joined the weekly analyses / Palestine was added to the tracked nations during CW-05.

    WORLDWIDE:
    ΏΏΏ֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍****** 396,206,286 ******֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍ΏΏΏ
    THE OMIKRON WAVE HAS VERIFIABLY CRESTED. SEE: BELOW
    OUR WORLD WILL EXCEED 400,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES VERY SOON

    +19,633,298 weekly cases // daily avg = 2,804,757 = 1,947.7 new cases every minute,
    tendency: starkly falling

    +76,745 weekly deaths // daily avg = 10,964 = 7.6 new deaths every minute, tendency: rising
    MANY NATIONS EXCEEDED THE NEXT MILLION MARK
    SOUTH AFRICA EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19-CASES, 51st NATION TO DO SO

    FOR THE OTHER MAJOR RUBRIK CHANGES DURING THIS TIME, SEE RUBRIK TABLE BELOW

    -----------------------------------------

    [​IMG]

    The 5th full week of 2022 set very few new records and clearly shows that the Omikron wave has crested. Our world hit the highest 7-day average point on 2022-01-025 and the statistic is most definitely sloping off. Of my 75 tracked nations, 47 reflected a verifiably decrease in +cases over CW-04, 3 represented an absolute plateau (Austria, Hungary and Greece), whereas only 25 (or 33% of the tracked nations) reflected a verifable increase. See: top-75, sorted by trend.

    Another sign that the Omikron wave is likely cresting is the fact that +deaths are rising, but they are not rising on the order they did during the wild variant (before vaccines), during the winter wave 2020-2021 or during the Delta wave(s).

    Also, the new rubrik worksheet now calculates weekly (or where appropriate, quarterly) values and the exact date of a rubrik change is listed next to the country itself. I've also added the rubrik of 1,000,000 total deaths and 1,000,000,000 total tests.

    [​IMG]

    Also, the history excerpt:

    [​IMG]

    I've added something new to the weekly analyses 2 weeks ago, namely a table like the one I used for EOM and of course, will now use for EOQ and EOY, here sorted only for cases, top 75-nations (in my tracking) first by +avg cases, descending:

    [​IMG]

    You can see that in this last week, 5 nations added more than +1,000,000 cases to their count and 7 nations added more than +100,000 cases per day (the week before, it was 8 such nations).

    Here the same 75-nation list, sorted by growth rate:

    [​IMG]

    Worldwide, the growth-rate in +cases was 4.96% (it was 6.23% the week before), with Croatia once again (rank 41) coming closest to the worldwide growth rate. 13 nations had over 10% growth rate (one week ago, it was 17 such nations), this time with Japan and South Korea vastly outstripping the pack at between 18-19.5%.

    And here, by trend:

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    The first two screenshots of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 75 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
    These WorldOMeter screenshots are from 2022-02-008, 08:22 UTC +0 (03:36 ET), using the "2 days ago" function
    For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the "Reference Link" (top of analysis)


    USA:
    ֍֍֍֍֍֍֍******** 78,214,287 ********֍֍֍֍֍֍֍
    THE USA EXCEEDED 76, 77 & 78 MILLION TOTAL COVID-19 CASES IN THE SAME WEEK
    +2,266,338 weekly cases // daily avg = 323,762 = 224.8 new cases every minute, tendency:
    sharply falling

    +18,859 weekly deaths // daily avg = 2,666 = 1.9 deaths every minute, tendency: steady

    2022-02-006 USA 000.png


    INDIA:
    ֍֍֍֍** 42,272,014 **֍֍֍֍

    INDIA EXCEEDED 42,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
    +969,574 weekly cases // daily avg = 138,510 = 96.2 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
    +7,855 weekly deaths // daily avg = 1,122 = 0.8 deaths every minute, tendency: rising

    2022-02-006 INDIA 000.png



    BRAZIL:
    ֍֍****** 26,536,597 ******֍֍

    BRAZIL EXCEEDED 26,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
    IS BRAZIL TESTING FOR COVID-19 ANYMORE AT ALL?
    +1,185,108 weekly cases // daily avg = 169,301 = 117.6 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
    +5,366 weekly deaths // rolling daily avg = 767 = 0.5 deaths every minute, tendency: rising


    2022-02-006 BRAZIL 000.png


    FRANCE:
    ֍֍ 20,758,371 ֍֍
    FRANCE EXCEEDED 20,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK

    IS THE 4th NATION ON EARTH TO REACH THIS MARKER
    +1,700,298 weekly cases // daily avg = 242,900 = 168.7 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
    +1,923 weekly deaths // daily avg = 275 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: steady

    2022-02-006 FRANCE 000.png


    UK:
    ֍******* 17,809,009 *******֍
    +585,484 weekly cases // daily avg = 83,641 = 58.1 new cases every minute, tendency: halved!
    +2,615 weekly deaths // daily avg = 374 = 0.3 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
    2022-02-006 UK 000.png


    RUSSIA:
    ֍** 12,810,118 **֍

    RUSSIA EXCEEDED 12,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
    +1,073,111 weekly cases // daily avg = 153,302 = 106.5 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
    +4,686 weekly deaths // daily avg = 669 = 0.5 deaths every minute, tendency: steady

    2022-02-006 RUSSIA 000.png



    TURKEY:
    ֍** 12,238,501 **֍
    TURKEY EXCEEDED 12,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK

    +711,880 weekly cases // daily avg = 101,697 = 70.6 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
    +1,500 weekly deaths // daily avg = 214 = 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: rising


    2022-02-006 TURKEY 000.png



    ITALY:
    ֍* 11,622,091 *֍

    ITALY EXCEEDED 11,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
    +696,690 weekly cases // daily avg = 99,527 = 69.1 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
    +2,622 weekly deaths // daily avg = 375 = 0.3 deaths every minute, tendency: absolutely steady


    2022-02-006 ITALY 000.png



    GERMANY:
    ֍* 11,059,873 *֍
    GERMANY WENT OVER 10 & 11 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK

    +1,283,225 weekly cases // daily avg = 183,318 = 12.7 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
    +986 weekly deaths // daily avg = 141 = 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: steady


    2022-02-006 GERMANY 000.png


    SPAIN:
    ֍ 10,355,199 ֍
    SPAIN WENT OVER 10,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES IN THIS WEEK

    +454,653 weekly cases // daily avg = 64,950 = 45.1 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
    +1,321 weekly deaths // daily avg = 189 = 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: steady


    2022-02-006 SPAIN 000.png
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2022
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    BULGARIA EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON 2022-02-007, 52nd NATION TO DO SO

    Yesterday, Monday, 2022-02,007, Bulgaria jumped over the 1,000,000 mark in total C19 cases:

    2022-02-007 Bulgaria goes over 1,000,000 - worldometer closeup.png
    2022-02-007 Bulgaria goes over 1,000,000 - worldometer.png


    The Bulgarian values are final.

    Because Bulgaria did not go over 1,000,000 cases on a Sunday, there is no excel table screenshot.

    With Bulgaria's entrance into the million-club, that makes for the 10th nation that has crossed over the million mark in 2022 and the 52st overall. The first 42 nations crossed over that line in 2020-2021.

    The updated millions club table will be provided later in the week because in the line-up below Bulgaria are 5 additional nations between 900,000-1,000,000 cases not necessarily in the order in which they will join the million-club, a number of them within this week: Croatia, Lebanon, Nepal, Tunisia and Norway.

    Life comes at us fast.

    -Stat
     
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  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Within the last half-hour, our world just crossed over 400,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases:

    2022-02-008 the world goes over 400,000,000 - worldometer closeup.png

    2022-02-008 the world goes over 400,000,000 - worldometer.png
     
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    CROATIA EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON 2022-02-010, 53rd NATION TO DO SO

    Today, Thursday, 2022-02,010, Croatia jumped over the 1,000,000 mark in total C19 cases:

    2022-02-010 Croatia goes over 1,000,000 - worldometer closeup.png
    2022-02-010 Croatia goes over 1,000,000 - worldometer.png


    The Croatian values are final.

    Because Croatia did not go over 1,000,000 cases on a Sunday, there is no excel table screenshot.

    With Croatia's entrance into the million-club, that makes for the 11th nation that has crossed over the million mark in 2022 and the 53rd overall. The first 42 nations crossed over that line in 2020-2021.

    Currently directly under Croatia and sitting at 993,095 without having reported in yet today, Lebanon is surely next to cross over the million-divide. Lebanon scored +8,488 new cases on 2022-02-009 and +5,545 cases on 2022-02-008. With Thursdays traditionally being the heaviest days of the week in most all of the world and with Lebanon only needing +6,905 cases to enter the million-club, the odds are extremely high that this will happen today alongside Croatia. If not today, then most definitely tomorrow.

    The updated millions club table will be provided later in the week because in the line-up below Croatia are 4 additional nations between 900,000-1,000,000 cases not necessarily in the order in which they will join the million-club, a number of them within this week: Lebanon (just discussed), Nepal, Norway and Tunisia and very likely at least Norway will also be jumping the 1,000,000-fence within this week.

    Life comes at us fast.

    -Stat
     
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  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    BTW, today, Thursday, 2022-02-010, Russia almost cracked +200,000 new Covid-19 cases in one day (+197,076).
     
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  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Sooooo.... Lebanon decided to flirt with us all and landed at 999,155 yesterday, 2022-02-010, just -845 away from the million line and is therefore guaranteed to jump the million fence today, 2022-02-011. But Norway, which has been reaping more than +25,000 per day, is now also at 986,855, -13,145 away, which means that very likely both nations will go over 1,000,000 today and will go in the history books as the 54th and 55th nations to do so.
     
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  11. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    People are still reading this thread, actually more than in the last months of 2021:

    2022-02-011 people are still reading this thread.png

    200,000 views.

    Not shabby.
     
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  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    And continuing with the russian saga: today, Friday, 2022-02-011, Russia broke over +200,000 new Covid-19 cases in one day, with exactly +203,949.

    Russia is now one of the top players in the Omikron wave and one of an ever decreasing number of countries registering a further surge of the wave, while the rest are showing a real retreat of the wave.
     
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  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    LEBANON EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON 2022-02-011 54th NATION TO DO SO

    Today, Friday, 2022-02,011, Lebanon jumped over the 1,000,000 mark in total C19 cases:

    2022-02-011 Lebanon goes over 1,000,000 - worldometer closeup.png
    2022-02-011 Lebanon goes over 1,000,000 - worldometer.png

    The Lebanese values are final.

    Because Lebanon did not go over 1,000,000 cases on a Sunday, there is no excel table screenshot.

    With Lebanon's entrance into the million-club, that makes for the 12th nation that has crossed over the million mark in 2022 and the 54th overall. The first 42 nations crossed over that line in 2020-2021.

    It is very likely that Norway will also jump the 1,000,000 fence on this day. Wait and see.


    Life comes at us fast.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 12, 2022
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  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    NORWAY EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON 2022-02-011, 55th NATION TO DO SO

    On Friday, 2022-02,011, hours after Lebanon jumped over the 1,000,000 mark in total C19 cases, Norway then did the same. However, I first got around to recording this this morning, Saturday, 2022-02-012:

    2022-02-011 Norway goes over 1,000,000 worldometer closeup.png

    2022-02-011 Worldwide 001 - total cases.png 2022-02-011 Worldwide 002 - total cases.png

    The Norwegian values are very likely final. I screenshotted the first two complete pages of the WorldOMeter table as it has been a while since we have taken a daily look. Two birds, one stone, you know.

    Because Norway did not go over 1,000,000 cases on a Sunday, there is no excel table screenshot.

    Here the updated millions-club table:

    2022-02-011 millions table update.png

    With Norway's entrance into the million-club, that makes for the 13th nation that has crossed over the million mark in 2022 and the 55th overall, although you will see Norway listed at rank 54, because as soon as it reported its numbers (after Lebanon), it has already sprung over Lebanon. The first 42 nations crossed over that line in 2020-2021. Just for a point of comparison, it took the entire year 2020 to get to the first 18 nations over the million mark and now within just the first 1.5 months of 2022, we have already added 13 such nations.


    Life comes at us fast.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2022
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  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    It's not even noon here in Germany on Sunday, 2022-02-013, which means that we are approaching end of Calendar Week 6 (CW-06) and already I have recorded data for 18 out of 75 nations and can clearly see that in most cases, the trend in weekly +cases and therefore also the +daily average continues to move downward, either from upward in the week before to plateau in this week, or from upward to downward, from plateau to downward or from downward to double downward.

    There are going to be some notable exceptions to this (Russia, Thailand, South Korea, Norway, Finland and I am quite sure that Germany will also be one of the exceptions here), but last week at the end of CW-05, only 25 of 75 nations showed a verifiable upwards trend and I am quite sure that it is going to decidedly less nations when this week is finally "ad acta".

    It is very much looking as if the Omikron wave began to dissipate in some parts of the world after CW-03, in other parts after CW-04 and now still in other parts after CW-05.

    Worldwide, CW-03 and CW-04 were by far the largest weeks of the pandemic since it began, with CW-03 just every slightly edging out CW-01 with an average of +3,397,571 cases per day in CW-03 to +3,352,095 such cases per day in CW-04 (that's only 45,476 less daily plus cases in CW-04 over CW-03, miniscule in relation to a mound of around 3.4 MILLION cases per day).

    I am very confident that by the end of February 2022, the entire Omikon wave will have ended and we will be seeing a relatively quiet spring begin in March.

    -Stat

    @CenterField @nopartisanbull @Sallyally
     
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  16. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    The big question is what comes after Omicron?

    A milder or a more severe Variant?
     
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  17. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That is indeed the big question
     
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  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Indeed, that is the question.
     
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  19. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    Fingers crossed.
     
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  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

    COVID-19 WEEKLY concise analysis: 2022-02-007 (Monday) through 2022-02-013 (Sunday)
    (UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
    CALENDAR WEEK 06
    Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations from 10,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards


    THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 75 NATIONS
    Currently, the figures for worldwide composite figures and 10 of the 75 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a weekly basis.


    WORLDWIDE:
    ΏΏΏΏ֍** 412,368,542 **֍ΏΏΏΏ
    THE OMIKRON WAVE IS VERIFIABLY RECEDING. SEE: BELOW
    +16,162,256 weekly cases // daily avg = 2,308,894 = 1,603.4 new cases every minute,
    tendency: starkly falling

    +76,503 weekly deaths // daily avg = 10,929 = 7.6 new deaths every minute, tendency: steady
    MANY NATIONS EXCEEDED THE NEXT MILLION MARK
    BULGARIA, CROATIA, LEBANON & NORWAY EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19-CASES
    52nd-55th NATIONS TO DO SO

    FOR THE OTHER MAJOR RUBRIK CHANGES DURING THIS TIME, SEE RUBRIK TABLE BELOW

    -----------------------------------------

    [​IMG]

    The 6th full week of 2022 showed the Omikron wave receding quickly in most but not all part of our world. Of my 75 tracked nations, 54 reflected a verifiable decrease in +cases over CW-05 (during CW-05, it was 47 such nations), 3 represented an absolute plateau (also 3 in the week before), whereas only 18 (or 24% of the tracked nations) reflected a verifable increase. The week before, it was 25 such nations. See: top-75, sorted by trend.

    CW-06 was the week of Germany, which lead all nations on earth in +cases, followed very closely by Russia. I am more than confident that Germany just crested its wave and at the end of this coming week, will reflect a reduction in new cases.

    Another sign that the Omikron wave is likely cresting is the fact that +deaths are rising, but they are not rising on the order they did during the wild variant (before vaccines), during the winter wave 2020-2021 or during the Delta wave(s).

    Here the rubrik worksheet:

    [​IMG]

    Also, the history excerpt:

    [​IMG]

    The trend area of the top-75 table now shows trends for two consecutive weeks. Where both cells are shaded green, that reflects a reduction of some sort over the CW before. Where both cells are shaded light red, that shows a surge of come sort over the CW before. Where there is no shading, the trend vis-a-vis the week before is unchanged. But first, sorted by +cases / +avg cases:

    [​IMG]

    You can see that in this last week, 3 nations added more than +1,000,000 cases to their count (the week before, it was 5) and 6 nations added more than +100,000 cases per day (the week before, it was 7). The top three +case getters were Germany, Russia and the USA but the difference in the +case growth rates is just astounding.

    Here the same 75-nation list, sorted by growth rate:

    [​IMG]

    Worldwide, the growth-rate in +cases was 39.2% (it was 4.96% the week before),this time with Serbia (rank 40) coming closest to the worldwide growth rate. 7 nations had over 10% growth rate (one week ago, it was 13 such nations), once again with Japan and South Korea vastly outstripping the pack at between 17-26.5%. The other nations over 10% growth rate are all European nations, mostly central / central northern European nations.

    And here, by trend:

    [​IMG]

    As noted at the top, 3 nations with a plateau, 18 nations still surging forward but 54 nations receding. There were 8 trend changes going in the surge direction, but there were 32 trend changes in the recede directions. 22 nations halved their +cases over the week before. At this rate, the world will be under +1,000,000 cases per day within the next three weeks, but it may happen earlier. You can quote me on that. You may also be curious as to why the UK is coded in red and not in green. That could make for a cool statistical discussion.


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    The first two screenshots of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 75 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
    These WorldOMeter screenshots are from 2022-02-015, 08:13 UTC +0 (03:36 ET), using the "2 days ago" function
    For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the "Reference Link" (top of analysis)


    USA:
    ֍֍֍֍֍֍֍********* 79,439,823 *********֍֍֍֍֍֍֍
    THE USA EXCEEDED 79,000,000 MILLION TOTAL COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
    +1,225,536 weekly cases // daily avg = 175,077 = 121.5 new cases every minute, tendency:
    halved!

    +17,621 weekly deaths // daily avg = 2,517 = 1.7 deaths every minute, tendency: falling

    2022-02-013 USA 000.png


    INDIA:
    ֍֍֍֍** 42,665,534 **֍֍֍֍
    +393,520 weekly cases // daily avg = 56,217 = 39.0 new cases every minute, tendency: halved!
    +6,138 weekly deaths // daily avg = 877 = 0.6 deaths every minute, tendency: falling

    2022-02-013 INDIA 000.png



    BRAZIL:
    ֍֍******* 27,483,031 *******֍֍

    BRAZIL EXCEEDED 27,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
    +946,434 weekly cases // daily avg = 135,205 = 93.9 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
    +6,160 weekly deaths // rolling daily avg = 880 = 0.6 deaths every minute, tendency: rising


    2022-02-013 BRAZIL 000.png


    FRANCE:

    ֍֍* 21,708,827 *֍֍
    FRANCE EXCEEDED 21,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK

    +950,456 weekly cases // daily avg = 135,779 = 94.3 new cases every minute, tendency: starkly falling
    +2,298 weekly deaths // daily avg = 328 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: rising

    2022-02-013 FRANCE 000.png


    UK:
    ֍******** 18,306,381 ********֍

    UK EXCEEDED 18,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
    +497,372 weekly cases // daily avg = 71,053 = 49.3 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
    +1,252 weekly deaths // daily avg = 179 = 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: more than halved
    2022-02-013 UK 000.png


    RUSSIA:
    ֍**** 14,133,509 ****֍

    RUSSIA EXCEEDED 13 & 14 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
    +1,323,391 weekly cases // daily avg = 189,056 = 131.3 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
    +4,834 weekly deaths // daily avg = 691 = 0.5 deaths every minute, tendency: rising

    2022-02-013 RUSSIA 000.png



    TURKEY:
    ֍** 12,908,321 **֍
    +669,820 weekly cases // daily avg = 95,689 = 66.5 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
    +1,808 weekly deaths // daily avg = 258 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: rising


    2022-02-013 TURKEY 000.png



    GERMANY:
    ֍** 12,387,078 **֍
    GERMANY WENT OVER 12,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
    GERMANY LEAD ALL OTHER NATIONS IN +CASES DURING THIS WEEK, RUSSIA WAS RANK 2

    +1,327,205 weekly cases // daily avg = 189,601 = 134.7 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
    +1,214 weekly deaths // daily avg = 173 = 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: rising


    2022-02-013 GERMANY 000.png




    ITALY:
    ֍** 12,105,821 **֍

    ITALY EXCEEDED 12,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
    +483,730 weekly cases // daily avg = 69,104 = 48.0 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
    +2,244 weekly deaths // daily avg = 321 = 0.4 deaths every minute, tendency: falling


    2022-02-013 ITALY 000.png

    SPAIN:
    ֍ 10,605,004 ֍
    +294,805 weekly cases // daily avg = 42,115 = 29.2 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
    +1,936 weekly deaths // daily avg = 277 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: rising


    2022-02-013 SPAIN 000.png
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2022
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  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Just with the naked eye you can see the brakes being applied to the Omikron wave worldwide.

    One month ago yesterday, on Wednesday, 2022-01-019, our world hit its absolute peak and gained +4.2 million new Covid-19 cases in just one day. Flash forward one month later and yesterday's values, from Wednesday 2022-02-016, show slightly less than half of that, at +1.9 million new cases being shown at WorldOMeter, which, when you consider the level of cases often shunted into the past, would proably have meant either +2.0 or +2.1 million new cases, pretty much half of where we were one month ago.

    It is looking very much as if CW-03 of 2022 (from Monday, January 17th, 2022 though Sunday, January 23rd, 2022, will be the heaviest week of the Omikron wave and if we get lucky, we will never again have such a wave.

    What is also clear is that hospitals worldwide are not over-capacity and daily deaths from Covid-19 have only risen marginally thus far, indicating that this variant is most definitely less severe.

    So, relatively speaking, that's good news on many fronts vis-a-vis Covid-19.
     
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  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    So, it's Friday, 2022-02-018.

    Today, Russia has crossed over 15,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases, while Netherlands exceeded 6,000,000 such cases. Also, by the end of the day, Brazil is pretty much guaranteed to soar over 28,000,000 cases, while the USA is pretty likely to crack 80,000,000 cases today as well.

    We ended CW-06 worldwide with 412,368, 542 (412.4 million) total confirmed Covid-19 cases and it looks very much as if we will end today just over 422 million, so that's roughly +9.6 million cases in 5 days time, which sounds enormous precisely because it is enormous, just not as enormous as in the last weeks. At the same time, it also means that we will end this week with just over 50% of the total +cases the world saw during CW-03, four weeks ago.

    The Omikron wave is definitely dropping off and the dropoff is statistically significant.

    -Stat
     
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  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-MN-01) has died at the age of 59, presumably of Covid-19 as he contracted the virus about 3 weeks ago, but his family is unwilling to speak about the cause of his unfortunate death.

    He was elected to the HOR in 2018 during the blue wave and the race for MN-01 was one of the 3 closest of the mid-term elections.

    RIP, Jim Hagedorn
     
  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    US Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy just announced that he has tested positive for Covid-19.
     
  25. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Today, 2022-02-018, South Korea broke over +100,000 daily cases (+109,928 ). I have to admit, I did not see this one coming. This one is a real surprise, to say the least.

    South Korea jumped over the 1,000,000-barrier 12 days ago, on 2022-02-006 and is likely to go over 2,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases this coming Sunday.
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2022
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