Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Today, Iceland crossed over 100,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases (currently 102,086) and is the 122nd nation on Earth to have reached this marker, which is not so impressive these days when you consider that 55 of those 122 are already over the 1,000,000-mark.

However, in Iceland's case, this is statistically extremely important as the total population of Iceland is only just slightly under 345,000, so based on today's statistics:

102,086 / 344,848 = 29.6% of the entire population of this small nordic nation.

 

Is it still Omicron?

 

It may be the B2 subvariant.

 

So, today is Sunday, 2022-02-020. When today is over then the 7th calendar week (CW-07) of 2022 will have come and gone. There is already some news to report.

First, I am adding two nations to the official tracking as of today and have already input their data back to 2021-12-026:

Latvia and Singapore

Latvia and Singapore are currently going to be rank 74 and 75, with both the Dominican Republic and Palestine falling out of the official tracking (yesterday, Palestine was at +505 and the D. Republic was at +352, both are soaring toward the downside in +cases and are bound to be overtaken by at least 6 other nations in the next week or so).

Meanwhile, Singapore picked up +15,836 cases yesterday, while Latvia picked up +11,992, which brings me to my second point: both are sure signs of where the Omikron /andor the Omikron-undervariant are still surging, namely, in eastern Asia and in the nordic/baltic states in Europe. Pretty much everywhere else, the Omikron wave is most definitely receeding.

Here some data for newcomer Latvia:



Latvia is the middle of the three so-called baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Lettish, or Latvian, shares many linguistic roots with Lithuanian and far less with Estonian, which is related to Finnish and Hungarian. 3.5 million people live in Latvia.




In the rankings, Latvia has moved up from rank 89 on 2021-12-026 to rank 74 today and has more than doubled its number of total C-19 cases in the 7 weeks since the beginning of this year. You can see that Latvia most likely hit the peak of its Omikron wave last week, CW-06 and has plateau'ed this week, CW-07. It is now -414,056 away from the million mark and were Latvia to maintain it's current average of +9,617 cases per day, this would mean that Latvia would join the million-club in 44 days, or on April 6, 2022.

Latvia is likely to slow it's ascent in the next weeks, but with 314 days left in the year, if Latvia slows down the pace 8-fold, it still goes over the 1,000,000 line by the end of this year. I give it a 100% probability that Latvia will do this.

585,944 / 3,545,399 = the number of Covid-19 cases in this nation represent 16.5% of the total population, with (unfortunately) plenty of room to grow,

Honestly, as the pandemic broke out and I started this thread, never in my wildest dreams did I think I would be writing about a country as small as Latvia, but here we are.

Lithuania is already in the top 75, currently at rank 62. Soon, my eyes will also have to focus on Estonia, which is currently rank 86 but gathering about +4,500 cases per day. So, very soon, all three baltic nations but all of the nordic nations (Finland, Sweden, Norway, Dänemark) will be in my tracking.

Unreal, just plain old unreal.

-Stat

 

The Queen of England has Covid. She’s 95.

 

Oh, ****.

That is just terrible.

Britain's Queen Elizabeth tests positive for COVID, Buckingham Palace says - ABC News (go.com)

 

The full figures for Germany are not yet in today, but there is now no doubt that in CW-06, Germany reached it's peak in the Omikron wave and then crested downward this week, CW-07. It looks like Germany reported about 180,000 less + cases in this week over the week before.

Russia also peaked in the wave during CW-06 and crested downward this week, CW-07. Same thing in a big way for the Netherlands, which went from double upward trend arrows in CW-06 to double downward trend arrows in CW-07. This will mean that all of the dreadnaught nations with 10,000,000 total Covid-19 cases upward will all show a reduction in +cases during CW-07.

As a matter of fact, of the 53 nations out of the 75 (77) that I am tracking, not one single nation that was showing a reduction in CW-06 showed a surge in CW-07. Some nations are still surging, but they were also surging in the week before and I bet there will be less than 10 of them when all is said and done. The most substantial rises that I have detected thus far are in Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, South Korea and Singapore, all eastern Asian nations, to note. However, in Japan, which plateau'd during CW-06, the Omikron wave is definitely receding.

That being said, with the Omikron wave receding, worldwide our average daily +cases is still decidedly higher than it ever was during the Winter 2020 wave and also during the Delta wave.

-Stat

 

This now rather strange. I thought it to be a mistake, but in Colorado middle of January, there was a reset. I do track those numbers every 3 days, because of the reporting cycle.
Woooooooosh over night my county and all the counties in Colorado got a reset, pooof the magic dragon.
We had 215 or so who got killed by covid and 27 with covid and suddenly it was down to 22 and nobody who died with covid, the infection numbers did not change.
We are now close to 6000..
With that covid reporting in our news, local, stopped.

Has anybody seen that in their region ?

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

COVID-19 WEEKLY concise analysis: 2022-02-014 (Monday) through 2022-02-020 (Sunday)
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
CALENDAR WEEK 07
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations from 10,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 75 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide composite figures and 10 of the 75 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a weekly basis.

WORLDWIDE:
ΏΏΏΏ֍֍***** 425,000,962 *****֍֍ΏΏΏΏ
THE OMIKRON WAVE IS HALF OF WHAT IT WAS FOUR WEEKS BEFORE
+12,632,420 weekly cases // daily avg = 1,804,631 = 1,253.2 new cases every minute,
tendency: falling
+66,004 weekly deaths // daily avg = 9,429 = 6.5 new deaths every minute, tendency: falling
SOME NATIONS EXCEEDED THE NEXT MILLION MARK
FOR THE OTHER MAJOR RUBRIK CHANGES DURING THIS TIME, SEE RUBRIK TABLE BELOW
-----------------------------------------​

The 7th full week of 2022 showed the Omikron wave receding quickly in most all of our world. Of my 75 tracked nations, 66 reflected a verifiable decrease in +cases over CW-06 (during CW-06, it was 54 such nations), 4 represented an absolute plateau (3 in the week before), whereas only 5 (or 7% of the tracked nations) reflected a verifable increase. The week before, it was 18 such nations. See: top-75, sorted by trend.

CW-07 was the week in which Germany, which had lead all nations on earth in +cases, followed very closely by Russia, showed a reduction in +cases and Russia took the worldwide lead in such. Last week, I wrote:

And so it was.

Another sign that the Omikron wave is likely cresting is the fact that +deaths are rising, but they are not rising on the order they did during the wild variant (before vaccines), during the winter wave 2020-2021 or during the Delta wave(s).

Here the rubrik worksheet:



Also, the history excerpt:



The trend area of the top-75 table shows trends for two consecutive weeks. Where both cells are shaded green, that reflects a reduction of some sort over the CW before. Where both cells are shaded light red, that shows a surge of come sort over the CW before. Where there is no shading, the trend vis-a-vis the week before is unchanged. But first, sorted by +cases / +avg cases:



You can see that in this last week, 2 nations added more than +1,000,000 cases to their count (the week before, it was 3) and 3 nations added more than +100,000 cases per day (the week before, it was 6). The top three +case getters were Russia, Germany and Brazil but the difference in the +case growth rates is just astounding.

Here the same 75-nation list, sorted by growth rate:



Worldwide, the growth-rate in +cases was 2.97% (it was 3.92% the week before),this time with Guatemala (rank 35) perfectly tracking the worldwide growth rate. 4 nations had over 10% growth rate (one week ago, it was 7 such nations), once again with Japan and South Korea vastly outstripping the pack at between 13-31%, but Singapore suddenly appeared on the scene and so did Latvia as well. Both are now in the top 75 while the Dominican Republic and Palestine have left the official tracking. T

And here, by trend:



As noted at the top, 4 nations with a plateau, 5 nations still surging forward but 66 nations receding. There were 7 trend changes going in the surge direction, but there were 24 trend changes in the recede direction. 24 nations halved their +cases over the week before. At this rate, the world will be under +1,000,000 cases per day within the next two weeks, but it may happen earlier. Rank 75 on this list is Sweden, which actually earned four down arrows: it's weekly haul was four times less than the week before.



The first two screenshots of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 75 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
These WorldOMeter screenshots are from 2022-02-015, 08:11 UTC +0 (03:11 ET), using the "2 days ago" function
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the "Reference Link" (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍ 80,117,484 ֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍
THE USA EXCEEDED 80,000,000 MILLION TOTAL COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
+677,661 weekly cases // daily avg = 96,809 = 67.2 new cases every minute, tendency:
almost halved!
+14,632 weekly deaths // daily avg = 2,090 = 1.5 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
​

INDIA:
֍֍֍֍** 42,838,524 **֍֍֍֍
+172,990 weekly cases // daily avg = 24,713 = 17.2 new cases every minute, tendency: halved!
+3,098 weekly deaths // daily avg = 443 = 0.3 deaths every minute, tendency: halved!​

BRAZIL:
֍֍******** 28,208,212 ********֍֍
BRAZIL EXCEEDED 28,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
+725,181 weekly cases // daily avg = 103,597 = 71.9 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+5,913 weekly deaths // rolling daily avg = 845 = 0.6 deaths every minute, tendency: falling




FRANCE:
֍֍** 22,286,829 **֍֍
FRANCE EXCEEDED 22,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
+578,002 weekly cases // daily avg = 82,572 = 57.3 new cases every minute, tendency: starkly falling
-2,425 weekly deaths // daily avg = -346 = --- deaths every minute, tendency: ---
​

UK:
֍******** 18,616,163 ********֍
+309,782 weekly cases // daily avg = 44,255 = 30.7 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,025 weekly deaths // daily avg = 146 = 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
​

RUSSIA:
֍***** 15,370,419 *****֍
RUSSIA EXCEEDED 15,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
+1,236,910 weekly cases // daily avg = 176,701 = 122.7 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+5,252 weekly deaths // daily avg = 750 = 0.5 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
​

GERMANY:
֍*** 13,602,431 ***֍
GERMANY WENT OVER 13,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
+1,215,353 weekly cases // daily avg = 173,622 = 120.6 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,311 weekly deaths // daily avg = 187 = 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: rising

​

TURKEY:
֍*** 13,504,485 ***֍
TURKEY EXCEEDED 13,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
+596,164 weekly cases // daily avg = 85,166 = 59.1 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,909 weekly deaths // daily avg = 273 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: rising

​

ITALY:
֍** 12,470,051 **֍
+364,230 weekly cases // daily avg = 52,033 = 36.1 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,974 weekly deaths // daily avg = 282 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: falling

​

SPAIN:
֍ 10,814,740 ֍
+191,736 weekly cases // daily avg = 27,391 = 19.0 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,913 weekly deaths // daily avg = 273 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: steady

​

 

We ended last week (CW-07) with a worldwide 7-day average of +1,801,634 new Covid-19 cases per day.

I just did a quick calculation for the first three days of this week (CW-0 and the average currently stands at: +1,624,726 new cases per day.

Since Thursdays have traditionally been the heaviest day of the week, then today's total figures will give up insight as to how far the Omikron wave will recede this week. I'm suspecting that we will probably land around +1.5 million daily cases when the final figures for CW-08 are ad acta.

Also, on Monday and Tuesday of this week, Israel and Lebanon became the 60th and 61st nations on earth to reach 10,000 total confirmed Covid-19 deaths apiece. Since they are neighboring nations, it's telling that they both exceeded this marker at pretty much the same time.

 

Though they are not in my 75-nation tracking, 3 nations have caught my eye because they are experiencing a very large number of +cases relative to their total cases, also relative to their populations:

Estonia
New Zealand
and
Hong Kong

Hong Kong is planning to test all 7-million residents over the next to weeks, so it is conceivable that little Hong Kong could jump from just over 75,000 cases right not to well over 1,000,000 practically overnight.

Estonia is very likely to enter the top 75 in about two weeks, which means that all three baltic nations would be in my tracking.

And New Zealand is a real surprise, to say the least.

 

We ended CW-07 six days ago with 425,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases worldwide.

Today is Saturday, 2022-02-026, the sixth day of CW-08 and right now we are 433.8 million total cases. That's +8.8 million in 5.5 days. It looks as if we will end this week with between +10.5-+11 milion new C-19 cases, which is decidely less than half of the +cases that we were experiencing at the peak of the Omikron wave worldwide, which was during CW-03, with essentially a plateau in CW-04.

I am really, really hoping that we will get under +300,000 cases per day worldwide by the end of March, 2022.

 

Hoping with you Stat.

 

Today is Sunday, 2022-02-027, end of CW-08 once the day is over. We ended yesterday with 434.6 million total Covid-19 cases, that's +800,000 more cases than when I was reporting very early yesterday, practically at the beginning of my day. This means that we accumulated +9.4 million new Covid-19 cases in 6 days, putting us very much on track to land at around +11 million when today is over with, pretty much exactly as I was predicting. CW-08 is going to show a major reduction in the Omikron wave, no doubt about it.

It's just late Morning where I live in Germany but already 15 nations have reported their figures for today, most of them final. Some nations, like Japan or Australia, will change the figures slightly by the time Tuesday comes around and I can use the "2 days ago" function to calculate the values but already I am seeing most values continuing to sink, but with two major exceptions: Australia and indeed, Japan:



In Australia we are seeing a slight uptick in +cases over CW-07, placing CW-08 pretty much in the middle between CW-06 and CW-07. Now, as sometimes happens with Spain, this could be a result of outlying areas not fully reporting in during CW-07 and now catching up during CW-08, which is my hope, because it would be really terrible were we to see a major flare-up of Omikron as the worldwide wave is ebbing. Until we see hard numbers for CW-09 and probably CW-10 as they come in, it's going to be hard to characterize this, but it is worth noting. It's not a massive jump, but again, worth keeping our eyes on. Please note that deaths are not rising at the same time, but rather, falling.

The opposite of this is verifably true in Japan:



Japan is definitely on the downside in terms of +cases, but take a look at the deaths. That is 235 times more average deaths than just 8 weeks ago!!!
You can see the more than 4-fold jump from CW-03 to CW-04, then a doubling from CW-04 to CW-05 and a more than tripling from CW-05 until now.
This is not happening in most places, which causes me to ask why this is happening in Japan right now.

Also, Russia has fallen under an average of +100,000 cases per day, to be replaced by South Korea, which has jumped over the +100,000 average mark and is even pushing +148,000.

Apropos Russia and of course, Ukraine: with war now raging in Ukraine, who knows what will happen to the actual, factual reporting of Covid-19 numbers in those two countries but suffice it to say that close range fighting contact is not conducive to tapping down the Omikron variant. In the fog of war, it may prove difficult to get truly accurate information, which in turn could allow Omikron to spread like wildfire again in both countries and of course, since Belarus is complicit in this and some Russian soldiers may return alive or dead to Russia via Belarus, that rogue state will probably also take an omikron hit as well. Have we not learned anything from WW1 ??

-Stat

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

COVID-19 WEEKLY concise analysis: 2022-02-021 (Monday) through 2022-02-027 (Sunday)
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
CALENDAR WEEK 08
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations from 10,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 75 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide composite figures and 10 of the 75 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a weekly basis.

WORLDWIDE:
ΏΏΏΏ֍֍֍***** 435,988,056 *****֍֍֍ΏΏΏΏ
THE OMIKRON WAVE IS LESS THEN HALF OF WHAT IT WAS FIVE WEEKS BEFORE
+10,987,094 weekly cases // daily avg = 1,569,585 = 1,090.0 new cases every minute,
tendency: falling
+66,447 weekly deaths // daily avg = 9,492 = 6.6 new deaths every minute,
tendency: slightly rising
FEW NATIONS EXCEEDED THE NEXT MILLION MARK
MEASURABLE SURGE IN EAST ASIA, SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANA
FOR THE OTHER MAJOR RUBRIK CHANGES DURING THIS TIME, SEE RUBRIK TABLE BELOW
-----------------------------------------​

The 8th full week of 2022 showed the Omikron wave continuing to recede in most all of our world, with a few notable exceptions. Of my 75 tracked nations, 68 reflected a verifiable decrease in +cases over CW-07 (during CW-07, it was 66 such nations), 1 represented an absolute plateau (4 in the week before), whereas only 6 (or 8% of the tracked nations) reflected a verifable increase. The week before, it was 5 such nations, so that is actually a slight uptick in the wrong direction. See: top-75, sorted by trend. Two nations showed an uptick in +cases, reversing their downward trend: Ireland and Australia. I will be keeping an eye on them this coming week. Add to that two nations that are not yet officially in the tracking but soon will be: New Zealand and Hong Kong, and we are getting a picture that something is happening in a very negative direction in Southeast Asia and in Oceana and I am hoping that what is happening will not spring over to India, Pakistan and Co.

Another sign that the Omikron wave has definitely crested is the fact that +deaths are barely rising and not on the order they did during the wild variant (before vaccines), during the winter wave 2020-2021 or during the Delta wave(s).

Here the rubrik worksheet:



Hong Kong is noted in the table. I will be doing a separate posting specifically about Hong Kong.

The history excerpt is very sparse so I won't publish it today; I will probably run it every two or three weeks now.

The trend area of the top-75 table shows trends for two consecutive weeks. Where both cells are shaded green, that reflects a reduction of some sort over the CW before. Where both cells are shaded light red, that shows a surge of come sort over the CW before. Where there is no shading, the trend vis-a-vis the week before is unchanged. But first, sorted by +cases / +avg cases:



You can see that in this last week, 2 nations added more than +1,000,000 cases to their count (the week before, it was 2) and 3 nations added more than +100,000 cases per day (the week before, it was 3). The top three +case getters were Germany, South Korea and Russia but the difference in the +case growth rates is just astounding.

Here the same 75-nation list, sorted by growth rate:



Worldwide, the growth-rate in +cases was 2.52% (it was 2.97% the week before), with Guatemala once again tracking the worldwide growth rate the closest for the 2nd week in a row (a week ago, it was rank 35, here it is now rank 27). 3 nations had over 10% growth rate (one week ago, it was 4 such nations), once again with South Korea vastly outstripping the pack but with Singapore and Vietnam are also registering a massive surge. Vietnam had more +cases than the USA.

And here, by trend:



As noted at the top, 1 nation with a plateau (surprisingly, Canada), 6 nations still surging forward but 68 nations receding. There were 13 trend changes going in the surge direction and 15 trend changes in the recede direction. 22 nations halved their +cases over the week before. At this rate, the world will be under +1,000,000 cases per day within the next week.

Sidenote: with the invasion of Ukraine by Putin's Russia, Ukraine's Covid-19 numbers have stood still now for a number of days. This too is a casualty of war, not to mention that it is now impossible to try to tamp down on the virus in a country where war is raging.



The first two screenshots of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 75 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
These WorldOMeter screenshots are from 2022-02-027, 08:02 UTC +0 (03:11 ET), using the "2 days ago" function
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the "Reference Link" (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍ 80,614,425 ֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍
+496,941 weekly cases // daily avg = 70,992 = 49.3 new cases every minute, tendency:
almost halved!
+14,577 weekly deaths // daily avg = 2,082 = 1.5 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

INDIA:
֍֍֍֍** 42,924,130 **֍֍֍֍
+85,606 weekly cases // daily avg = 12,229 = 8.5 new cases every minute, tendency: halved!
+1,702 weekly deaths // daily avg = 243 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: almost halved!​

BRAZIL:
֍֍******** 28,768,104 ********֍֍
+559,892 weekly cases // daily avg = 79,985 = 55.5 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+4,833 weekly deaths // rolling daily avg = 690 = 0.5 deaths every minute, tendency: falling

​

FRANCE:
֍֍** 22,689,332 **֍֍
+402,503 weekly cases // daily avg = 57,500 = 39.9 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+5,756 weekly deaths // daily avg = 822 = 0.6 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
​

UK:
֍******** 18,859,389 ********֍
+243,226 weekly cases // daily avg = 34,747 = 24.1 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+720 weekly deaths // daily avg = 103 = <0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
​

RUSSIA:
֍****** 16,291,116 ******֍
RUSSIA EXCEEDED 16,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
+920,697 weekly cases // daily avg = 131,528 = 91.3 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+5,427 weekly deaths // daily avg = 775 = 0.5 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
​

GERMANY:
֍**** 14,728,752 ****֍
GERMANY WENT OVER 14,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
+1,136,321 weekly cases // daily avg = 160,903 = 111.7 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,437 weekly deaths // daily avg = 205 = 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: rising

​

TURKEY:
֍**** 14,025,181 ****֍
TURKEY EXCEEDED 14,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
+520,696 weekly cases // daily avg = 74,385 = 51.7 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,781 weekly deaths // daily avg = 254 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: steady

​

ITALY:
֍** 12,764,855 **֍
+294,804 weekly cases // daily avg = 42,115 = 29.2 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,571 weekly deaths // daily avg = 224 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: falling

​

SPAIN:
֍ 10,977,524 ֍
SPAIN WILL EXCEED 11,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES THIS COMING WEEK
+135,784 weekly cases // daily avg = 19,398 = 13.5 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,102 weekly deaths // daily avg = 157 = 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: falling

​

 

For those who want to take a somewhat easier look at this, here the tracking tree for the end of Month, February, 2022 (one day after the end of CW-0:



Anything marked in red represents a shift upward on the tree.

 

HONG KONG and the nations under 1,000,000 C19 cases in my tracking:
​

As I indicated in this posting from last Thursday, my eyes were seeing a surge happening in Hong Kong. Well, over the weekend, Hong Kong sprang from well under 100,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases to well over 100,000 Covid-19 cases, following the same pattern that I saw with Australia in December 2021, but this time even more extreme.

So, I have already begun an excel table for Hong Kong but it is not yet officially in my tracking. You can see the meteoric rise in this city/state of 7.6 million people for yourselves:



As you can see, Hong Kong, which started the year at under 13,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases, suddenly sprang from 52,830 cases at the end of CW-07 to 171,314 at the end of CW-08 and is already averaging just under +17,000 cases a day. You can see that Hong Kong was not really hit with the Omikron wave in January 2022. For some reason, it really started to take off after 2022-02-006.

Hong Kong announced that it intends to test all 7.6 million residents in the next week, so I expect the number of tests performed to considerably rise and we may see extreme numbers that kind of blow our imaginations over the next week or so. Wait and see. Also, deaths have risen considerably in Hong Kong in the last week, an unsettling statistic.

So, using the excel table I have for nations in my tracking under 1,000,000, I added Hong Kong and let Palestine and the Dominican Republic stay in the mix:



Here you can see that although Hong Kong ended CW-08 with "only" 171,314 total Covid-19 cases, if it remains on this trajectory, then it will go over the 1,000,000-mark in 49 days, putting that in the latter part of April, 2022. However, as of yesterday, 2022-02-028, Hong Kong is now already at 205,780 Covid-19 cases, which means that since I wrote the analysis for CW-08 2022, in just one day, Hong Kong jumped +34,466 cases, DOUBLE the calculated average for the week before. Therefore, it is entirely conceivable that Hong Kong will soar over the million mark within the newly started month of March, 2022.

At the beginning of the year, Hong Kong was rank 176. As of 2022-02-027, it was rank 108 and right now, before numbers for today come in, Hong Kong sits at rank 105. It is verifiably moving faster than Australia did in December, 2021.

You will however see that in a number of nations that were literally racing toward 1,000,000 just one month ago, many are now well over +1,000 cases per day and as of right now, 8 of them would not even get close to the million-mark by the end of this YEAR, let alone Q1, 2 or 3.

Tunisia, however, is all but guaranteed to go over the mark by the middle of this week, even at a slow pace. Tunisia is sometimes slow and very inconsistent at getting the numbers reported, but eventually, they will get around to it. Tunisia will become the 56th land on Earth to break the million-barrier in Covid-19 cases.

I will be updating on Hong Kong very often in the next 3-4 weeks.

-Stat

 

For the first time in its Covid-19 history, South Korea sailed over +200,000 new Covid-19 cases in one day. Indonesia seems to be in a holding pattern.

On the other hand, this is the first Wednesday in a while where Russia came in under +100,000 cases and as you can see, Japan is definitely on the mend. Australia is also down to about maybe +25,000 per day.

The most uptick in +cases can be seen in East/Southeast Asia. However, we are seeing a measurable uptick in +cases in Austria (Europe) today, and I mean, a considerable uptick.



I am beginning to wonder if the one Omikron subvariant is now making the rounds and I hope to G-d that this is not the prelude to a second Omikron wave.

I really don't have time to be doing this stuff every day, but warning signs like these warrant reporting.

-Stat

 

Tonight, I will be adding New Zealand to my pre-tracking (inofficial tracking). New Zealand, a land with a population of almost exactly 5 million, has suddenly jumped well over 100,000 cases, showing a course very similar to Hong Kong's.

Of course, the logical question is: if this is happening in South Korea, Vietnam (probably also in Laos and Kamodscha), Hong Kong, Sinagpore and New Zealand, shouldn't we also be seeing a massive uptick in cases in communist China? I mean, if China is really telling the truth, we should be seeing millions of cases by now, and yet we are not.

 

NEW ZEALAND UPDATE:​

So, as promised I have added New Zealand to my pre-(inofficial) tracking:




First,, New Zealand ended the year 2021 at rank 169. As of today, Thursday, 2022-03-003, New Zealand is at rank 110, which means that it has advanced 59 places in the rankings within 60 days time.

Second, you can see that the +cases doubled from CW05 to CW06, more tripled from CW06 to CW07 and then more than quintipled from CW07 to CW08. As you can see, New Zealand ended CW08 with 86,138 total confirmed C19 cases, averaging +7,864 cases per day in that week.

Were that figure to not budge one bit, then at this rate:

1,000,000 - 86,138 = 913,862 cases away from the million mark.
913,862 / 7,864 = 116.2 (117) days which would mean that in less than four months, New Zealand would reach the million-barrier.

However, New Zealand's figures for today have already come in:



This means that in the first four days of this week alone, New Zealand has advanced +79,960 new cases, which makes for a four day average of +19,990 cases per day.

Using that as a benchmark, were that figure to not budge one bit, then at this rate:

1,000,000 - 166,098 = 833,902 cases away from the million mark.
833,902 / 19,990 = 41.7 (42) days which would mean that in the middle of April, probably right around Easter, New Zealand would reach the million-barrier.

THAT'S how much the average +cases for New Zealand has changed in just 4 days time. It is not likely to end this week with 5 times or 3 times as many +cases as the week before but by the end of this week, it will definitely be over 2-times as many cases as in the week before.

New Zealand's population is currently estimated at 5,002,100, so 166,098 Covid-19 infections represents 3.3% of that nation's total population.

This is why I included New Zealand to the tracking because at this rate, before we can bat our eyes, that country will enter the top 75 and could very conceivably break the million-barrier within this month. Wait and see.

-Stat

 

TUNISIA EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON 2022-02-011, 56th NATION TO DO SO​

Yesterday, on Thursday, 2022-02,003, Tunisia exceeded the 1,000,000-mark





The Tunisian values are final. I screenshotted the first two complete pages of the WorldOMeter table as it has been a while since we have taken a daily look. Two birds, one stone, you know.

Because Tunisia did not go over 1,000,000 cases on a Sunday, there is no excel table screenshot.

Here the updated millions-club table:



With Tunisia's entrance into the million-club, that makes for the 14th nation that has crossed over the million mark in 2022 and the 56th overall. The first 42 nations crossed over that line in 2020-2021. Just for a point of comparison, it took the entire year 2020 to get to the first 18 nations over the million mark and now within just a little more than the first two months of 2022, we have already added 14 such nations.


Life comes at us fast.

-Stat

 

HONG KONG UPDATE:​

This last Tuesday, 2022-03-001, I added Hong Kong to the pre-tracking. Here again the newly written excel table:



So, we see that Hong Kong ended CW-08 with 171,314 total confirmed Covid-19 cases.

Here is how Hong Kong ended yesterday, Thursday 2022-03-003 (the third screenshot of all four that I am presenting here):



Yesterday, Hong Kong ended the day with 350,557 total confirmed Covid-19 cases, which means that that small land (or major city, to be exact) just travelled +179,243 cases in just the first four days of this week. It has already more than doubled it's figure from last Sunday and may very well end up tripling it or coming very close to tripling it when this coming Sunday closes out. It also means that Hong Kong just averaged +44,811 cases per day over these four days, considerably higher than the +16,926 average registered for all of the week before (CW-0.

Using Thursday's figure as a benchmark, were that figure to not budge one bit, then at this rate:

1,000,000 - 350,557 = 649,443 cases away from the million mark.
649,443 / 44,811 = 14.5 (15) days which would mean that on or just after Friday, March 18th, 2022, Hong Kong would reach the million-barrier.

I have every reason to believe that this average is still going to rise considerably, so it is entirely possible that Hong Kong goes over the 1,000,000-mark already nearing the end of CW-10, which ends on March 13th. So, although Hong Kong is very low on the rankings right now (rank 92), it could easily move to between ranks 54-56 in the next 10 days, which means it will enter the official tracking probably in the very same week that it also goes over 1,000,000.

Hong Kong is now very likely to be the 57th nation on earth to cross the 1,000,000-line in C19 cases, shortly after Tunisia did that yesterday.

Remember, Hong Kong has said it planned to test every single resident over the next weeks, so out of an estimated 7.4 million fresh tests, they are guaranteed to catch a boatload of infections that otherwise may have slipped in under the radar.

It is looking to me that Hong Kong's development from coming literally out of nowhere may only rival the USA's sudden ascent to it's first 1,000,000 in March-April of 2020.

As indicated yesterday, New Zealand is also going through a similar development, although not as pronounced as Hong Kong's. And let's not forget that Australia most unfortunately showed more +cases in CW-08 over CW-07. And Vietnam is just burning with cases. Singapore is still on the rise. And South Korea went over +200,000 cases at least once this week, a 1st in that nation's C19 history. So, something major is happening in East-Southeast Asia. I am seriously asking myself if a new subvariant of Omikron or perhaps an entirely new variant is now underway.

-Stat

 

On a final note, if you look at the first WorldOMeter screenshot from the posting above, you will see that our world just crossed over SIX MILLION total confirmed Covid-19 deaths since the pandemic began.

Sobering. Very, very sobering.

-Stat

 

Since Sunday 2022-02-027 our world has added close to +6.7 million new C19 cases Worldwide and 500,000 of them are already from today.

There's a good chance that we will end CW-09 with less than +10 million new cases, putting us well below the peak of +24 million cases from CW-03.

-Stat

 

PLATEAU?​

Today is Sunday, 2022-03-006, the last day of Calendar Week (CW) 09 of this year. It's about 11 hours before it is EOD Greenwich mean time but I have already gathered data for 29 nations out of the 75 officially tracked and 4 unofficially tracked (Dominican Republic, Palestine, Hong Kong and New Zealand) and already there are signs that that Omikron wave abation is grinding to halt and we may be reaching a plateau.

First, Worldwide, as of EOD yesterday, we advanced +9,136,399 cases in the first 6 days of this week. In the week before, for all seven days, we advanced +10,987,094 cases. The difference between those two is -1,850,695 which means that if the world clocks in with more than +1,850,695 cases today, then the wave will actually be moving upward again. I am suspecting that we will clock in with about +1,500,00-1,600,000 cases (right now, we have already advanced +568,000 of those cases), which will put us at only maybe 150,000 less cases than was the case in the week before. In other words, the descent is slowing and I must just add that "only" +10 million cases per week is a ****ing horrible, massive, totally terrible statistic.

More proof of this can be found in Germany, which I had really hoped would be dropping massively now, but it is not. Using the same type of calculations as I did for the worldwide figures, if Germany gets over +131,000 new cases today, then it will actually be rising again. I am hoping that Germany comes in under +100,000, but even if it comes in with only +60,000 cases, than that means that Germany's weekly haul will only be 70,000 less than the week before, again indicating that in Germany as with the worldwide figures, the descent is slowing, aka: plateau.

One good sign is that Thailand has gone from being a driver of the virus to having reached an almost picture perfect plateau this week (+157,079 this week, +157,301 the week before), but South Korea is still churning out a huge number of +cases and will surely lead all other nations on this earth this week with over +1.4 million weekly cases. And of course I have written about Hong Kong and its meteoric rise this week. Sadly, cases in Australia have risen for the second week in a row, indicating that a SECOND Omikron wave may be underway down under.

And even more unfortunately, the same thing is happening in little bitty Austria, which went from +198,435 new cases in CW-07 to +186,433 new cases in CW-08 but now is at +208,288 for this week, CW-09. That is definitely NOT the direction in which we want to be going.

What is helping to tap down the overall worldwide numbers despite the Omikron wildfires that areare raging in East and Southeast Asia is the fact that the USA and India have seen a complete sloughing off of the Omikron wave.

More about this soon, but it looks like this week, CW-09 of 2022, is a plateau week, something we do not want.

-Stat