“Redistricting will take place in almost every congressional district in the next 18 months. The party of first-term presidents usually loses seats in midterms following their inauguration — President Barack Obama’s Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trump’s Republicans lost 40 in 2018 — but the redistricting process throws a wrench into the gears of prediction models.” “The Brennan Center has found that the GOP will enjoy complete control of drawing new boundaries for 181 congressional districts, compared with a maximum of 74 for Democrats. Gerrymandering for political advantage has its critics, but both parties engage in it whenever they get the opportunity. In 2022, Republicans just have much better prospects” “Prospects for Republican gains in the 50-50 Senate are not so good. Only nine seats are really seen as “in play.” Five Republican seats are at risk. Republicans are retiring in Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Sen. Ron Johnson promised Wisconsin voters in 2016 that he would retire; he may face an uphill climb if he breaks that promise. Only four Democratic seats are considered competitive: Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada.” “To regain control of the Senate, the GOP needs every break” https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...e-much-harder/ Sad that gerrymandering plus such a huge role in selecting local Representatives to Congress It should be interesting with a slim GOP majority in the House, but a Democrat Senate would pretty much shelve anything McCarthy attained, Schumer invoking the “McConnell rule” to kill legislation. Also means Biden will move quick these first two years, he learned with Obama, and knows Mitch plays the long game and never has nor had any interest in working across the aisle But the big question is Trump, will he become a monkey wrench in the GOP with primaries and challenges to GOP candidates? Seven of the nine States with “contested” elections didn’t buy the Trump message in 2020, three out of the five GOP seats “in play,” so his involvement could be huge
If the election were held today, after the Coronavirus stimulus checks, I would think many people would be happy to vote for Democrats in elections for the House. But, a year from now, the elections might be held as Biden's higher tax rates hit the middle class.
If one believes the rhetoric, those tax rates won’t effect the middle class down, and if Covid has faded while the economy rebounds, Biden, perhaps by just being there, will get credit. It would be tough for the GOP to campaign against those successes I agree with the article, historically, the President elect usually loses the House, and the Senate will be close, which could make Trump’s role big, for better of worse
A helluva lot can happen between now and the next elections good or bad which can affect how people may vote, a bit premature to speculate now.
Without gerrymandering, Republicans would be hard pressed to win back the House. They have relied on it for some time now.
Pennsylvania will be a D. Full stop. Wisconsin likely D, with or without the current seditionist pinhead Johnson Missouri and Ohio won't happen, although I think they both will be closer than expected and closer than the T**** margin. North Carolina will be the most fun to watch. PLEASE let there be a T**** in that race!! Kelly will win Ariz again. I suspect both NH and NEV will be safely D as well. Leaving Georgia, the state that fears its voters the most, as the best chance to steal a seat back. I have no comment on the House, except to say HR1/S1 needs to pass to try and mitigate the worst of the gerrymandering (on both sides, but worse for Rs)
It is a two way street, Democrats have also used it to their advantage, the GOP has just been better at winning the local elections that allow them to gerrymander more
Democrats use it far less often and when they do it is far less extreme. Gerrymandering to favor a party should be made illegal. They need to be independent commissions that account for such issues, not partisan ones. Democrats must prioritize HR1 if fair elections are to be had for the next 10 years.
Don't buy the hype. Democrats have rigged the elections and will win just about every race from here on out.
Dems do it its "redistricting... R's do it its "gerrymandering" You guys are a laugh a minute.. Keep them coming.
Democrats have relied on it from 1930 to 2000. 2010 and 2020 are a change of pace from the prior norm and democrats are now calling what they did for decades unfair...
What you are overlooking is that by the next elections T**** will be in court defending himself and using all that money he collected for himself. Will there be criminal cases by then or just financial is debatable but he won't be a billionaire any more. Oh he'll still have the hundreds of millions he collected after the elections, courts won't be able to get that money, but he'll own nothing but some personal items. Of course if any of the criminal cases come forward then he could be in real trouble. No, too many Republicans put too much faith in him. They're toast for doing so. Far too many of them can't see. Why did he devise a PAC that allows him to use the money for personal use and at the same time openly compete with traditional Republican PACs and fundraising? As long as he uses the money to rent he can do pretty much anything he wants with those millions. Those members of congress that are still supporting him now will in a large part be toast. Of course if it all falls before the primaries the Republicans will have the hope of new candidates. If not, forget about turning any Democrat held seat.
Astute analysis. However, Democrat senators are only part of the Republican problem. There is also the 5 or 6 senators who dress up like Republicans but are really Democrat-like.
This all depends on whether Democrats can take over and run (and hence determine) all federal elections through HR1.
