Bernie Sanders is NOT extreme.

Without tucking his tail between his legs, Trump probably has around a 75% chance of winning the nomination. Trump has between a 10-20 point lead almost all the state polls I can find. The only Exception is Minnesota where Rubio leads. Anything can happen, but baring any major gaffs, Trump is the heavy favorite.

As for the general, Independents dislike Trump more than Hillary although neither is liked. Trump has made more enemies within the Republican Party than Hillary has within the Democratic Party which translate into I would say a 60% chance or better Clinton ends up being president.That is barring a major unforeseen event between now and election day.

 

You seem to be under the mistaken impression that Trumps nomination is up to the people in the primaries.
The republican party is run by some very powerful people and they do not like Trump.

 

We'll see. There are no 712 super delegates in the Republican nomination process. However there are 168 PLEO's or party leaders and elected officials. All the rest is determined by the peoples vote. If the powerful people want to stop Trump as you state, they will have to get the people to vote for someone else. They can't use super delegates to fix things as the Democrats can.

 

If they want him on the sidelines, they will run a game on him that will make him look like a lunatic, it would really not take much, he is already half way there.

 

That I agree with. The RNC or anyone in position of power with the Republican Party wouldn't have to do that. Those remaining candidates would be enough, perhaps. But Trump's supporters are not going to leave him easily. It would be those who haven't made up their minds yet or switch from other candidates when they drop out.

 

I think if they deny him the nomination, he will run third party and split the right wing vote.

 

Personally I think Trump has lost the vote if he is the nominee in November of plenty of Cruz and Bush supporters just like Romney lost a lot of Gingrich supporters that failed to show up and vote in November of 2012. The Bush supporters may not be many, perhaps 5% of the GOP base vote while Cruz is closer to 20%. Some of those I am sure will not show up in November, creating hard feelings against you for your personal attacks against other candidates is not the way to win in the general.

It works it getting one the nomination, but fails in the general. This is showing up in the latest unfavorable polling Trump has. Trump's unfavorable among Republicans only has risen from 20% in December to 34% today. What is important is that folks usually do not vote for someone they dislike. Trump may win the nomination, but it may be meaningless by the time he does.

Also among independents since December, a group of voters any Republican candidate must win around 54-55% of to overcome the larger Democratic base vote, his unfavorable rating is now at 64%. There is no way Trump can win the independent vote with a unfavorable rating that high.

 

[video=youtube;sfw5uOWh2vM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfw5uOWh2vM[/video]