Biden's 11 million Amnesty Plan; Good/bad for the economy? Employment? Treasury? What else?

Here's another ''nonpartisanbull'' discussion paper, but first, let's put the facts on the table;



1. Democrats Introduce Biden’s Major Immigration Reform Bill

https://www.usnews.com/news/nationa...ntroduce-bidens-major-immigration-reform-bill

2. Undocumented immigrants quietly pay billions into Social Security and receive no benefits

https://www.marketplace.org/2019/01...-pay-billions-social-security-and-receive-no/

https://www.politifact.com/factchec...mented-immigrants-social-security-contributi/

3. Frequently Requested Statistics on Immigrants and Immigration in the United States

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/art...VlJOzCh2mQgMGEAAYASAAEgKKFfD_BwE#unauthorized

4. Unauthorized Immigrant Population Profiles

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/pro...ub/unauthorized-immigrant-population-profiles

5. The U.S. Census Bureau lists the annual real median personal income at $35,977 in 2019 with a base year of 2019.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perso...ex, ethnicity and educational characteristics.

6. Comparing employment from the BLS household and payroll surveys

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.htm

7. Are non citizens counted in the US Census?

U.S. Census figures are based on actual counts of persons dwelling in U.S. residential structures. They include citizens, non-citizen legal residents, non-citizen long-term visitors and undocumented immigrants.

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Let's start with EMPLOYMENT

1. According to MPI's "Population Profiles'', in 2018, an estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants were living in the United States.

a. Approx. 6% were aged 16 and Under
b. Approx. 64% were employed
c. 11 million MINUS 6% X 64% = 6.6 million EMPLOYED

2. According to SSA, in 2016, undocumented immigrants quietly paid $13 billion to SS and Medicare, both employer's/employee's contributions.........Let's do the math;

Median Wage; $34,000 X 15.2% = $5,168
$13 billion DIVIDED by $5,168 = 2.5 million EMPLOYED/contributors

AND according to MPI's Population Profiles, in 2018, 6.6 million were EMPLOYED.

THUS, the math and data shows Biden's Amnesty will most likely increase the Employment Rate.

 

The math suggests no such thing. 1st the 11 million illegal immigrants assumes the population of illegals has been stagnant since the mid 1990s when the number, which wasn't much more than a guess even then, first began to be bandied about.
2nd there are even now a fair number of Latinos on the country illegally, how does the IRS differentiate legal from illegal? Or is this just another of those ball park guesses for which government agencies heads with an agenda spew out without any regard to reality whatever? Note most illegals work in the gray or black markets, predominantly the former. What makes you think the Biden economy is going to be able to absorb any additional unskilled labor at all.

 

ONCE AGAIN, according to MPI, in 2018, an estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants were living in the United States

Also, according to the Migration Policy Institute, (MPI), out of said 11 million;

a. Approx. 6% were aged 16 and Under
b. Approx. 64% were employed
c. 11 million MINUS 6% X 64% = 6.6 million EMPLOYED

2. According to SSA, in 2016, undocumented immigrants quietly paid $13 billion to SS and Medicare, both employer's/employee's contributions.........Let's do the math;

Median Wage; $34,000 X 15.2% = $5,168
$13 billion DIVIDED by $5,168 = 2.5 million EMPLOYED/contributors

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/pro...MI1szKqJP57wIVzfrICh03ewShEAAYASAAEgJoT_D_BwE

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IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF.......MPI's employment figures are correct, thus, if approx. 6.6 million of said 11 million undocumented were employed, and according to SSA, in 2016, approx. 2.5 million of said 11 million have contributed $13 billion to SS and Medicare........

https://www.marketplace.org/2019/01...-pay-billions-social-security-and-receive-no/

........then, the math suggests Biden's amnesty will MOST LIKELY increase the Employment Rate.

NOTE: ''If'' and ''most likely''

 

Good grief.

 

This is my first and last warning.....

Do you want to be a participant?

If not, then stay out!

If so, then according to your knowledge, will Biden's 11 million Amnesty Plan be GOOD or BAD for the economy? For Employment? For Treasury? For what else?

 

It isn't your forum. I'll say whatever I like. Feel free to try to get me banned. Bad for everything since you ask.

 

It can not increase the employment no matter how much wishful thinking government honchos and cheap labor advocates wish to do. The number of illegal aliens is only one factor in the employment equation. Given the Biden budget plans so far, if any jobs are created it will be overseas.

 

In addition to the above, did the

Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, signed into law by U.S. President Ronald Reagan on November 6, 1986.......

..........significantly/partially increased the employment rate?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_Reform_and_Control_Act_of_1986


https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/employment-rate

NOTE:
Amnesty[edit]
Nearly three million people applied for legalization under the IRCA.[7] There were two groups of applicants. Aliens who had been unlawfully residing in the United States since before January 1, 1982 (pre-1982 immigrants) were legalized under Section 245A of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) while Aliens employed in seasonal agricultural work for a minimum of 90 days in the year prior to May, 1986 (SAWs) were legalized under Section 210A of the INA. Nearly 2.7 million people were ultimately approved for permanent residence.

 

Overlooks and purposely do the fact that the ecoomy had been booming since '83 -84 because if Reagan's economic Policies. Legalizing Latinos doesn't create jobs it creates competition for those jobs. In 86, prior to the destruction of the New England boating industry and the S&L business by stupid leftist tax policy, the economy was booming. And we were already at or near full employment neither of those things are true today.

 

HOWEVER, back in 1986, the general concesus was; The 2.7 million illegals Reagan amnesticized were largely employed by his Californian Buddies/ Agri- Sector, thus, they had jobs White Americans did not want.

 

You mean they were willing to do the jobs for less money than citizens.

 

Still today/fast forward to 2020.....

A majority of Americans say immigrants mostly fill jobs U.S. citizens do not want

About three-quarters of adults (77%) say undocumented immigrants mostly fill jobs U.S. citizens do not want,

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...ts-mostly-fill-jobs-u-s-citizens-do-not-want/

 

Today, and in California, for more money.....$13 to $14/hr

https://www.dir.ca.gov/letf/Agriculture_Employer_Brochure.pdf

 

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...ts-mostly-fill-jobs-u-s-citizens-do-not-want/

 

How would you know that wage that would attract citizens?

 

Please note that they had those jobs before amnesty they were just off the books so to speak.

 

In addition to the above......

Once again, according to MigrationPolicy.org, in 2018, approx. 6.6 million illegal immigrants were EMPLOYED, however, due to the following employment factors, I can't rationally confirm if Biden's 11 million Amnesty will in fact increase the Employment rate;

a. Underground economy, such as ''Cash Only'' Construction/renovation Jobs, thus, how many illegals are currently employed by said underground economy?

b. Although...........U.S. Census figures are based on actual counts of persons dwelling in U.S. residential structures. They include citizens, non-citizen legal residents, non-citizen long-term visitors and undocumented immigrants.........

..........is our current Civilian Noninstitutional population, (16 years and over), accurate? NOTE; The Employment Rate is a percentage of the CNP.

c. How many of said 11 million are currently paying taxes, Federal, State, and local, both income and payroll, thus, how many will not be added as ''Net contributors"

AND although Obama's Amnesty Package did in fact promoted an increase in the Employment Rate......I'm not quite sold on the notion that ''it will''

Thus, based on__________, one can only assume.

NEXT, let's move to Uncle Sam's Treasury Box;

Question; Will Biden's 11 million Amnesty increase Uncle Sam's NET Income Tax Receipts?

 

Question; Will Biden's 11 million Amnesty increase Uncle Sam's NET Income Tax Receipts?

Who remembers; 47% of taxpayers don't have a NET Federal Tax Liability?

Well, Trump's tax cuts most likely increased said 47% to 50.1%, and according to BLS, Hispanic/Latino's median income is lower than the national average, thus;

Answer; Not Likely

 

It appears that the OP is trying to present amnesty as good for the economy, but there are a lot of factors that go into that. I have no doubt Wall Street would benefit since they benefit from a loose labor market where corporations have the ability to push wages downward ( or at least prevent them from rising). That's why The Wall Street Journal had for years the editorial position in favor of open borders. This guy gets it:



But there are other factors involved. One of the ironies of this issue is that the same people who pretend to be upset about income inequality support amnesty, which would increase it. Low skilled immigration, legal or illegal, is bad for US income inequality.

The past thirty years have seen a dramatic rise in income inequality in the US. While many economists have pointed to the rise of low-skilled immigration as a contributor to income inequality in developed countries, there has been little evidence from the US. In new research, Ping Xu, James C. Garand, Ling Zhu, find that the low-skilled immigration in the US does increase income inequality due to the downward pressure it puts on wages, and immigrants’ lack of access to federal welfare benefits. They write that to reduce inequality, US immigration policy should shift towards admitting more high-skilled immigrants or incorporating existing immigrants into the social welfare system.

 

Quote: It appears that the OP is trying to present amnesty as good for the economy



Fact; The OP only talked about the ''Employment Rate'', and Fiscal contributions, (mainly Federal), thus far, it appears that you are wrong.

 

If you remove every state but CA, I'll bet illegals comprise 90% of farm labor. Drive up and down I-5 through the central valley. Not many Americans picking tomatoes.

 

One step at a time.......

Quote: ''One of the ironies of this issue is that the same people who pretend to be upset about income inequality support amnesty, which would increase it. Low skilled immigration, legal or illegal, is bad for US income inequality.''

Good point.

At the opposite end, a majority of highly educated/higher income Americans do support a merit based immigration system, such as; UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, and long term, a MBIS equates to; Higher PISA Scores, Higher income, higher net contributions to governments, higher employment rates, HOWEVER, said immigration system has been a tough sell in the U.S.

 

Who works America's farms? 2018

a. 49% unauthorized............Only half (51%) of American farmworkers were authorized to work in the U.S.

b. 83% of farmworkers were Hispanic..........Among U.S. born workers, 35% were Hispanic.

https://sites.tufts.edu/deborahschildkraut/files/2020/05/Who-Works-Americas-Farms.pdf

 

A merit based immigration system was one of Trump's proposals.

President Trump’s Bold Immigration Plan for the 21st Century


But you're right, it was a tough sell, and I believe the current administration opposes it. In fact, I'm unclear where you got the idea that "a majority of highly educated/higher income Americans do support a merit based immigration system." I would say that's not correct. or at least I've seen no evidence that's correct.

 

That is likely true.
Then the question becomes, do you want to keep them off the books or have the legally on the books?

Because it's very likely, they will still be doing those types of jobs either way.

Our current 2 parties in the USA, seem to want to keep them off the books. What position do you take?