China's economy to overtake US in next four years, says OECD

It would be better for Americas economy to instigate a war between China and Japan and then sell arms and provisions to one of the sides (and the other in secret if possible). It worked in WWII to get the US out of depression and become the number one economy.

 

Well you are not looking hard enough then because I have rebutted his opinion wholesale.

 

It is probable that we won't see a significant change in the net 4 years, but with new leadership coming in, who knows?

My post was looking more long term in response to this statement in your OP: "If as stated this happens and China will continue to grow its economy could be twice the size of the American one in another 10-15 years."

 

I haven't seen it either.

All you have argued is "look at the past 30 years." That argument has little value as to what will happen in the next couple decades. History proves that over and over.

 

All the major economic forums state that it will dwarf the US economy by 2030. You can look that up.

 

Wong I have said look at the past 30 years and today and the predictions for 2016 and that all major economic forums are saying what I am. You just seem to be in denial that this is happening.

 

Well, they are struggling, the rate is now 7.4% and falling.
"China's economy has slowed for a seventh quarter as problems in Europe and the US hurt demand for its goods."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19975112
For China to sustain growth they will need the west to go out of recession which will not happen in the near future. China relies on exports to afford the raw materials they have to import. It is not out of the question that China will break up as occurred in USSR.

 

7.4% growth is struggling? Funny but if America had 7.4% growth or any other country then the leader of that country would be being called fantastic for his economic miracle.

 

The Chinese government have a 90% approval rating. Hardly going to break up I believe,seems to be wishful thinking on your part.

 

lolz...
....

 

Not the same thing. Population, my friend. It's why Norway, despite having a higher per capita GDP than us (last time I looked in any event) can't surpass us in total GDP. GDP is produced by people and the machines they use. 1.4 billion people, once they getting rolling, can rather easily outproduce 325 million the same way the 325 million here can outproduce the 40 millon in Norway.

Naturally, growth will slow at some point. But they can go for quite some time. Again, it's just numbers. Right now most of their people are still in poverty. They have a HUGE population of workers to employ making the stuff that comprises GDP. Our growth problem is also numbers related. When the population does not grow much you can only get growth via productivity gains. So we are stuck in the 1%-3% range. Unless we figure out some grand productivity plan. They can easily double or triple that for a long time before growth slows. I see no way to beat the math.

 

I did not actually say that 7.4% growth means the country is struggling. I wrote that China is struggling to maintain that growth which they clearly are. I'm not actualy disagreeing with you that Chinas economy may overtake the US's but I do see in the future the break up of China due to large prosperity and employment differences within the regions of China.

 

In a spring 2010 survey by the Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project, 87% of Chinese said they were satisfied with the way things were going in their country.

91% of Chinese characterized their country's economic situation as good,

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1945/chinese-may-not-be-ready-for-revolution

 

It looks like that was what you were saying as seen here Well, they are struggling, the rate is now 7.4% and falling.

 

Perhaps you could quote my first post to keep the context of the word "struggling" which was "China is struggling to keep up its growth due to the drop in exports."

 

I haven't denied it at all.

 

Russia had a huge population. Not as big as China, but bigger than ours. GDP is produced by people, but of course the productivity of people varies widely.

Mere population size is not guarantee of GDP. That would only be true if per capita GDP were equivalent for all countries.

 

Oh, sorry. You've said look at the past 30 years *and* today. Got it. As far as predictions, see my examples for Japan in 1990 and the SU in the 1960s. Predictions are often wrong.

 

Good for them. They also claimed that Japan would surpass the US and that unemployment would peak at 9% in the Great Recession. You can look that up.

 

Russia is not really capitalist, either. Population is required, but it is not suffcient. Russia is so ineffcient they are not in the discussion. Sort of an apples to aardvarks thing there.

Certainly. But China is MORE capitalist than we are. Obviously, a communist country of 300 million will have a lower GDP than a capitalist country one third that size. China's issue right now is that there are not enough jobs to employ the poor. As they find those it's a done deal. I don't know about the 4 year part. But it will happen.

 

Yes you have

http://www.politicalforum.com/lates...xt-four-years-says-oecd-3.html#post1061934954

 

Funny how the ones about China have been pretty much correct for the past 30 years.

 

They have been right on China though and being as that is what we are talking about that is what counts.

 

China happen to be expanding their domestic market and they have 1.3 billion consumers so them over taking America is a foregone conclusion.

 

Maybe 91% Chineses of eastern China?But not of all China.

[video=youtube;szUN0wOfhCg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szUN0wOfhCg[/video]