How do you see the Ukraine war ending?

Not how you wish that it would end but how do you think it will end?

I think the Ukrainians will eventually force the Russians out of most of the country but they will retain the pro-Russian areas, both sides would then be able to save face.

 

Preferably, the majority ethnic-Russian regions in the east, the ones that have been voting to secede from Ukraine, are allowed to become not Ukraine and peace can break out across the region.

This appears to be the most likely outcome right now. Whether it happens in a brokered peace relatively soon or whether it happens after a bunch more Ukrainians die trying to prevent Russia from annexing the ethnic Russians largely depends on how long we keep sending weapons to Ukraine.

Its also not unlikely that the whole thing turns into WW3 once Ukraine goes from not having enough troops to win to not having enough troops to hold back the Russians, at which point NATO sends in troops, institutes military draft and someone fires a 'tactical' nuke. And then we're all ****ed. Well, everyone that lives in a major city or doesnt store food is ****ed, the rest of us might be OK...

I chose 'Ukraine will force Russia out of most of its territory'... but thats kinda a misnomer as Russia currently holds less than 10% of Ukraine, and there actually wouldn't be any 'forcing out' necessary (or possible) at this point for Russia to merely maintain control over the regions that don't wanna be part of Ukraine anyway. This whole thing is really about whether Ukraine or Russia gets to rule over ethnic-Russians (and their land) that don't want to be ruled by either of them.

 

Eventually Russia and Ukraine will have to come to terms, and it's likely to be terms that will leave chunks of formerly Ukrainian territory in Russian hands.

I think a lot more people will have to die before we get there though.

 

Russia doesn't want Western Ukraine as it has an anti-Russian population.
Victory for Russia would mean no missiles pointing at Russia, and Ukraine
not in NATO.

So the situation if right now would be a Total Russian Victory.

 

Russia's initial victory will be to take control over all the Donbass region, and in general, everything east of the Dnieper River. Then, after 'the West' completely loses interest in Ukraine, Russia will probably absorb the rest of Ukraine or convert it into another 'friendly' independent country, like Donetsk and Luhansk.

From the very beginning, it was pretty obvious that Russia had an insurmountable logistics advantage. Remember: Moscow is 500 miles away from Kiev. Washington D. C. is 5,000 miles and an ocean away from Kiev....

 

Russia will win a pyrrhic victory. Western Ukraine will be occupied but they'll install a kremlin friendly government that will eventually be overthrown and join the EU and/or NATO. Eastern Ukraine will likely become part of Russia.

 

I disagree, Putin wanted to take Kyiv and install a puppet regime for all of Ukraine. Were he to declare victory now he probably would get away with it but I doubt he will.

I doubt that, after so much investment the West will make sure Ukraine can defend itself. Then again Russia has had to import ammo from North Korea?

 

Ukraine will not be able to hold out forever. For all the money and supplies they've been sent, troops are the one thing they aren't getting more of.

The only question is, how long will they hold out and how much time will that leave Putin to invade his next country before he dies of old age or whatever diseases he's alleged to be suffering from?

 

Ukraine and Russia were both independent of the USSR which no longer exists,
but don't take my word for it, look it up on whatever source you trust.

Side by side for 30 years without a war until the US got involved, sending in mid
2021 700 million dollars of 'aid' which allowed Ukraine to attack Donetsk.

There is a lot of debate going on among the Russia public as to what was the
right point for Russia to stop complaining and issuing ultimatums and to actually
send in the military, and I understand there is no general consensus, some think
Russia should have acted sooner, before Ukraine had built up a huge army, and
others it should have waited even longer.

A lot of people in the US have fallen for the belief that both Putin and Napoleon
are were 5ft 7, that both want to conquer all of Europe. Napoleon was 5ft 5.5 inches
and Zelenskyy is 5ft 7, but nonsense has conquered America.

 

But remember, we made a gigantic investment in Afghanistan involving staggering amounts of money and war-fighting materiel over twenty years -- and then what did we do?

I won't insult your intelligence by suggesting that you don't remember what we in 'the West' (particularly the United States) actually did.... Similarly, would we 'walk away' from a hefty commitment to Ukraine?

 

When the disinformation was tested, the Putin = Napoleon did really well.
I thought, well both were French, except Putin, and Napoleon came from
Corsica, and both lived at roughly the same time in terms of economics
and technology, or not... , so it make zero sense,

but the Putin is the new Napoleon won because the heights were similar.

and people found that convincing and failed to notice that Zelenskyy is
the same height as Putin and so was another negotiator in the Minsk
Agreements (Francois Hollande) and the fourth was even closer to
Napoleon's height - Angela Merkel is 5 foot 5.

the disinformation was crap, but it worked amazingly well.

 

So where am I coming from?
I'm a Methodist Humanist and think it is wrong to waste 500,000 lives
in a conflict that could have been resolved with 15 minutes of intelligent
conversation.

Go back to the way it was from 1991 to the end of 2013, because it was
fine. There was no war and you could go out and dig your garden without
some HIMAR coming and doing it for you.

Seriously, find out how it was before the US got involved and put it
all back.

 

There was a mutually agreed-upon framework for resolution to the whole Ukraine affair called "The Minsk Agreements" of 2014 and 2015. If everyone, including us in 'the West', had adhered to what had been agreed to, it his highly likely that NONE of this would have happened....

Links:
https://www.reuters.com/world/putin...eal-one-day-partners-cheated-past-2022-12-09/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements

 

Russia didn't want a war but the West did.

 

Why on earth would the West want that?

 

I voted "stalemate" because that is the best hope. Chances are Putin will take most of the country in the end. Putin will not stop. The only thing that can halt Putin is Putin's overthrow or demise.

After that, maybe Putin will be ready to start World War III by attacking the NATO nations. The question is, will China want to get dragged into it with him?

The current Axis of Evil made up of China, Iran and Russia is no different from Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Imperial Japan. The only cooler head in the group might be Xi who knows he has more to lose.

 

See if you can spot the Axis of Evil in these conflicts:
US vs Vietnam backed by Russia
US vs Afghanistan
US vs Iraq
US vs Lebanon
US and France and NATO vs Libya
US and NATO vs Kosovo
US vs Syria
US and NATO and Western and Central Ukraine vs Russia

with small contributions from other countries

 

this was a "Red Dawn" type battle, just to make it as hard as possible for Russia to take Ukraine, so already that is successful

 

Yes, against tyranny and terrorism!

 

Some areas of Ukraine will become demilitarized zones nominally under Russian administration and the rest will be independent and allied with Europe.

 

Red Dawn was fantasy even in the 1980s and totally wrong now.

But it appears the US public still lives in a world of fantasy right now,
Ronald Reagan became President and was popular not because of
anything real, but because he fit the John Wayne mold, tough talking
six-shooter by his side, and people still believe it.

Moving out of the world of fantasy is not something I would recommend,
but we need fantasy that points the way to a good future rather than
a bad past.

 

nope, totally disagree, the Red Dawn approach was the only one that could work for Ukraine

 

I suppose it could be called an "Axis of Evil" and, in some ways, compared with our WWII opposition, but in reality it's probably more of an 'alternate economic reality' than anything else.

This 'alternate economic reality' has a name -- they're the "BRICS" countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). Today, many other countries are interested in joining this federation: "Over 40 countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Algeria, Bolivia, Indonesia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Comoros, Gabon, and Kazakhstan have expressed interest in joining the forum, according to 2023 summit chair South Africa." Link: https://www.reuters.com/world/what-is-brics-who-are-its-members-2023-08-21/#:~:text=Over 40 countries, including Iran,2023 summit chair South Africa.

There are two other main factors to consider, though: the ubiquity of modern weapons technologies, and, the virtue of PATIENCE. Consider: today we live in a world where even a country like Iran has extremely sophisticated, powerful weaponry -- including hypersonic missiles, and will soon have nuclear weapons, too. What superior power does the U.S. unilaterally project when nearly every other country on earth has access to roughly the same level of weapons technologies that we have?

Next, 'the virtue of patience'. If anything characterizes the half-assed, blundering, on-again-off-again approach that the United States has taken in its foreign policy (with two notable exceptions), it's lack of patience, and consistency! We were 'patient' and consistent in dealing with opponents in Korea, and at least we settled for 'half a loaf'. President Ronald Reagan was patient and consistent in building up the American military with massive spending and appropriations, with the result that the Soviet Union fell behind, and then by the end of 1991, fell apart!

But look at our colossal mistakes in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan! We didn't use our power, and then while we stumbled around stupidly, we grew impatient and frustrated... and lost (or threw away) every advantage we had. You don't see any of our opponents doing that today, and when they think they can take us down, one piece at a time, they will! They have something that money can't buy -- patience! And when you couple patience with POWER, then, as we Americans were in World War II, you're a winner!

 

Reagan won the Cold War, it was the Soviets who collapsed.

 

The "Farewell" affair sank the U.S.S.R. Reagan happened to be President and gets the credit according to partisans who prefer to overlook all the real aspects of the man.