if the economy is bad, why were there record sales last weekend??

When the average cost of goods is higher I’m not sure why it surprises you that there was a record dollar amount spent.

 

That's a good point. However, the amount of 2023 holiday spending is up 7.5% from 2022, not 2020.

Prices have increased by 20% since October 2019 (that's a better indicator to use than 2020, since it doesn't include covid distortions of spending and inflation). However, holiday spending is up 32% since 2019. So, therefore, holiday spending has clearly outpaced inflation.

See my answer above, increase in holiday spending is still outpacing inflation significantly.

 

I'm with you, brother. I got my Samsung phone for a $100 at Costco a couple of years ago on a special promotion, and it works just FINE for everything I care about! The fact that anybody (ANYBODY) would pay over a thousand-damned-dollars for a smartphone is proof to me of the old saying that, "A FOOL AND HIS MONEY ARE SOON PARTED!"

 

I got my Pixel 6a last year for $150 after trade in of my old phone. I'd never spend +$1000 on any Apple product. But, then my other family members have different ideas. Apple advertising has worked really well on them. Must have that blue color in your texts, otherwise you aren't cool (or whatever the modern word is)...

 

Almost all of it funded by federal funny money and inflation

 

I don't know how often it has to be said, but the 4.9% GDP growth is REAL, it means that it is calculated AFTER inflation is taken into account.

Well, I don't know if it makes any difference correcting this, because obviously conservatives are not listening. To them, the current economy is terrible, and no amount of data can convince them otherwise -- until Trump gets back into office, and then the economy will be again the greatest ever, no matter what the actual data states.

 

People are going deeply into debt. Historically debt has been the major contributing factor to recessions and depressions. People end up having to cut way back in their spending, or they go into bankruptcy. That cuts down demand which effects business activity which affects hiring. It's not a pretty cycle.

 

Let’s not conflate “holiday spending” with the OP that involves Black Friday online spending. In 2020 that figure was $9 B. Today it’s $9.8 B, an increase of 8.8%. In contrast, inflation has been 18.8%. More money spent for less goods now. Thanks for pointing out the year discrepancy. I should have used the 8.8% increase in sales since 2020.

The spending on Black Friday online in 2019 was $7.5B. In 2020 it was $9B. Most of the increase in sales in the last 4-5 years was in that 2019-2020 time period. I understood the OP was making the argument the recent economy is good. Well it was in 2019-2020, but not so much recently. Recently, inflation has far outpaced online spending on Black Friday.


If we look at BF in general for brick and mortar we see:

I know the media is trying to prop up the economy, but I don’t think it’s wise to base our financial decisions on the hype. There are some serious problems with the economy, including real estate. Commercial real estate is in big trouble in the near future. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see a rosy short term future. I’m begging to worry Dems and progressive leaders want a Trump presidency to preside over the coming shakeup. Probably a re valuation of the currency to avoid deep depression.

 

Based on dollar amount only? Inflated dollars buying less merchandise. Getting over the shock last year of the inflation.

Did you miss it's going on credit cards which are now maxed out?

 

It's up 20% - 25% over 2-3 years ago years ago.

 

If we are going to parse out every point, it is important to note that the figure provided is a 7.5% increase for online Black Friday Spending. Without looking it up, I suspect that we have seen large increases in online spending every year for the last decade or so while simultaneously seeing less in-store sales.

What is being discussed in this article is not necessarily overall holiday spending.

 

This doesn't seem reflective of a poor economy.

 

BNPL options have not been available all that long so naturally usage trends are going higher.

 

BNPL is just the most recent iteration of delaying the cost of purchasing. Whether its credit cards or payment plans or 'pay later', its all part of the same dynamic. I bet the old ways of pay later with 'X low monthly payments' and etc were the same (if not also higher), which just means even more people buying things they cannot afford. A sign of economic strength perhaps, but not economic health. More like how a body in extreme duress releases adrenaline to overcome preset biological safeties, sacrificing the long term health of the body for a chance at avoiding immediate death.

 

Credit card debt all by itself in this country is over ONE TRILLION DOLLARS. Right now it's like we Americans have completely lost our ****ing minds! Even one of Biden's more enthusiastic cheerleaders among network media, CNBC, attests to this: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/07/cre...1point08-trillion-record-how-we-got-here.html

To re-paraphrase an old saying, "In a kingdom of the witless, the half-wit man is king!" And that's what we Americans are rapidly turning into -- a nation of people who are half-crazy, and, totally crazy.

 

But the cost of the items has not gone down. Inflation is cumlative.

The distribution of wealth is also a problem. The wealthier can go ahead and spend even when products cost more. The poorer among us does not have that choice.

 

Bingo! And that's why I always laugh my ass off at Biden's choirboys when they crow about how wonderful everything is. First off, the Fed doesn't even bother to measure house prices, food, and energy in its scholarly estimation of what inflation actually is and has been!

Next, as you say, "the cost of the items (which the Fed DOES measure) has not gone down." So, Joe's cheerleaders are trying to make everybody joyful because prices on the limited number of things that are measured haven't gone even further into the stratosphere? The sheer gullibility of some people is absolutely staggering!

 

I used the 2019 time point rather than the 2020 time point for my calculation. Why? Because 2020 Black Friday spending was artificially inflated due to the government stimulus. People spent much less on restaurants, vacations. etc, so they had a lot more money to spend on goods, on top of the stimulus money. That's why I don't think 2020 is a fair point for comparison. I think it would be hard to argue that a 20% increase in holiday spending from 2019 to 2020, in the middle of a pandemic, is a fair indicator for the strength of the economy back then.

In any case, the pandemic threw off economic indicators for a few years. Until the economy gets back to a steady state that is unaffected by what happened in 2020, it is hard to make serious comparisons. Even now, economic indicators are affected by the high interest rates, which are still an aftershock from the covid recession and the subsequent stimulus.

 

Credit card debt was up 5% to record high in 3rd quarter; Buy Now Pay Later Apps saw about a 30% increase in users on Black Friday; and the average black friday basket size was down 32% from last year (The number of items being purchased). In short, your credit-driven "record sales" is because everything costs more but consumers are getting less for the money. I am not saying it is good or bad, just that there are statistics going both ways. I am not going to cry about less consumption (which is better for the environment) but I am also not going to cheer "record sales" (which is just inflated pricing forced by credit spending.)

I have heard rumors that a local factory may be trimmed down to about a third of its size next year because the number of units the company is moving has trended down for a few years and the decline is getting steeper. They are about the last place locally where someone out of high school can get a good-paying secure job with benefits. It will be a body-blow if it happens.

 

And the inflation rate is substantially understated.

 

Sure thing, maybe you can tell us, with citations, what the real inflation rate is? My guess: It's all based on your feelings.

 

Republicans think Trump won the 2020 election.

Republicans think the economy is in a recession.

Anyone see a pattern here?

The Biden economy keeps humming along while Americans continue their bitching about the President.

Very puzzling.

ABC reports, "The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week, a sign that U.S. job market remains resilient despite higher interest rates.

"The applications are viewed as a proxy for layoffs. They remain extraordinarily low by historical standards, signalling that most Americans enjoy unusual job security.

"The Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times since March 2022 to slow the economy and rein in inflation that hit a four-decade high last year. The job market and economic growth remained surprisingly resilient, defying predictions that the economy would slip into a recession this year.

"But hiring has slowed from the breakneck pace of 2021 and 2022 when the economy roared back unexpectedly [under President Biden] from the COVID-19 recession. Employers added a record 606,000 jobs a month in 2021 and nearly 400,000 last year. So far in 2023, monthly hiring has averaged a still-solid 239,000, but it's come in below 200,000 in three of the last five months."

“But job growth remains strong, the unemployment rate remains historically low, and businesses have yet to start reducing their workforce in a significant way,″ said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

"President Trump famously declared during his 2016 campaign that he loved the “poorly educated” because voters with lower levels of schooling delivered an overwhelming share of votes to him," the conservative Washington Times."

 

That's been going on since 1913 when they created the federal reserve and the fractional banking system.

Truly a bipartisan effort.

Don't cherry pick.

 

~ This is exactly what many economists are concerned about ...

 

US Inflation Rate is at 3.24%, compared to 3.70% last month and 7.75% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 3.28%.

With virtual full employment, the lowest unemployment rate in six decades, and robust spending, inflation is a byproduct of prosperous times. A free economy cannot have one without the other because manufacturers and retailers price what the traffic will bear.

Lower prices result from high unemployment and resulting subpar consumer spending.

It pretty much sounds like Republicans want a recession to prove their point about the Biden economy.