Nate Silver: Trump Has A 57.5% Chance Of Becoming President-

And as of 45 seconds ago...

 

Par for the course to the delusional RWNJs, (citing the "Now-cast" which uses a different model that the above map).

We will see what Silver's "Now-cast" looks a week from now.

Hillary will be ahead then.

Lmao at all of the Trump sheep acting like this means anything.

3 months from now, that same forecast will have Hillary headed toward a possible landslide.

And, seriously, does anybody (who possesses a brain cell) actually think that Trump is going to win ALL 3 of OH, PA and FL?

Trump winning ALL 3?

Not a chance in hell. NONE.

Trump's chances of LOSING ALL 3 are much greater.

 

No you really don't.

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Do you stop reading after the first sentence or something?

 

From a different link.

Obviously, you didn't click on the link I provided in the OP, as you claimed.

 

You're probably unaware of the desperation your redundant "rolling on the floor laughing out loud" smileys reflect on your character.

 

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 3h3 hours ago @fierman: Polls-plus is the most accurate, historically. But the now-cast is fun if you like to panic!"




http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

 

Talon is covering his ass....as you are now. Blaring Subject Line: "TRUMP LANDSLIDE POSSIBLE!"....small print CYA "Not that I believe what I am posting"


Standard move. Trump "optimism" is a mile-wide, but an inch deep....even yours.

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So you'll STICK with Nate Silver to Election Day????

Or want to do a little "caveat" of "Not that I take Silver seriously".....just in case?

 

Okay, now I'm just confused.

 

Does that mean you'll suddenly put no stock in Silver's predictions?

I'm already there, Cap'n.

I'm wondering why someone such as yourself suddenly stopped posting Silver's numbers when they went south for Clinton.

How are you going to CYA on this?

 

Yes, but Hillary has money, power, illegals & the media all working in her favor, so she's going to be tough to beat. I mean, it couldn't be more obvious the media cabal is pretty committed to crowning her in Nov, so you know they'd rather swallow a rock than even allude to the fact Hillary isn't the most trusted, admired, qualified woman on the planet. Just watch them this week. They're in their safe space & they'll be falling over themselves coming up with ways to praise Dem's & the "historic opportunity" to elect the first woman president. I'm sure they're disappointed they can't frame this as "the first woman president & wife of the first black president", but they'll figure out someway of alluding to it, I'm sure.

 

Well, it's like we said about Silver...

But for some "mysterious" reason, some of our friends on the Left who are fond of citing him suddenly stopped posting his predictions today...

 

1. You posted Silver's current info as an OP with Subject Line.....then stuck in "Not that I believe him"....to cover your ass.

2. I've predicted Hillary will win over at Elections & Campaigns...and a ballpark guess at "by how much"?

You'll NEVER do that for Trump....just "hint" and "dance around" a SEEMINGLY optimistic view of his chances.

Because as much as you want Trump to win...your MAIN desire is not to be shown to be WRONG on this stupid anonymous blog and have it thrown back in your face.

So...you'll never actually make a solid prediction on Trump winning and risk it not happening.

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I'll cite Nate Silver to late October.....will you?

 

what the hell are you talking about?

 

Trump will have a pen. And he won't be afraid to use it.

 

What all Trump supporters need to do is assume the worst and make certain they go vote. He will not win otherwise.

 

IMO Dems concerned about any erosion of their rights under a Republican administration need to get Congress cracking to spiff up our "Patriot" and other laws before Trump gets in.

Fair warning-- or those of you supporting the BLM may find yourself on No Fly lists.

 

Apparently silver just stealth edited his page. I'm on my phone and the mobile is still 56.7%Trump 43.3% Hillary but the desktop has been edited 53.5% Hillary 46.5% Trump .

I told you Nate Silver was a sack of (*)(*)(*)(*). He got a phone call from the DNC reminding him who he (*)(*)(*)(*)ing works for.

 

Far right wingers are always falling into that trap.

They take what they are fed at face value and parrot it like sheep.

 

She needs something... cause she's behind in every poll released today.

And her favorability numbers just keep on dropping.

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You were all over his nuts a few weeks ago..

Times are a changin'.

 

That might be how you see it, but you're in the minority now. This isn't 2008 or 2012. What has Hillary done to excite the democratic voter base? She's pushing away more than she's bringing in.

 

Nate don't think much of Hillary's VP pick either.


Tim Kaine Wouldn’t Do Much To Help Clinton Win The Election ......

If Hillary Clinton chooses Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate, as betting markets and journalists suspect, then in some ways, it’s a dull story. Kaine has traditional credentials, having served as Virginia’s governor before joining the U.S. Senate. He’s young enough, at 58, that he could run for president himself in 2020 or 2024. He’s not especially liberal, but he’s no Blue Dog Democrat, either. He’s a white guy, although he speaks good Spanish. If Mike Pence is a “generic Republican,” then Kaine is a “generic Democrat.”

Our previous research suggests that a vice presidential pick adds about 2 percentage points to his party’s margin in his home state. So, for instance, if Clinton would otherwise win Virginia by 3 percentage points, her margin would theoretically increase to 5 points with Kaine on the ticket. Not all VP bonuses are created equal, of course; there’s some evidence that VP nominees chosen from less populous states (for instance, Joe Biden of Delaware or Sarah Palin of Alaska) make more difference than those picked from larger ones. But Kaine seems like a fairly typical case: Virginia is a medium-size state, and Kaine’s approval ratings there are solid but not spectacular.

It actually takes quite a confluence of circumstances, though, for those 2 percentage points in one swing state to change the winner of the Electoral College. For Kaine to swing the election for Clinton, she’d have to be losing Virginia without him (otherwise he’d be superfluous) but not losing it by more than 2 percentage points (otherwise, he wouldn’t help enough). Likewise, she’d have to be losing the Electoral College without Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, but she’d need to have at least 257 from other states or Virginia wouldn’t make a big enough impact.1

What are the odds of all of that happening? About 1 chance in 140, according to our polls-only model, based on a set of simulations I ran early Friday afternoon. That translates into only about a 0.7 percent chance that a VP pick from Virginia would swing the election to Clinton.

Of course, a 0.7 percent increase in your chances of winning the Electoral College wouldn’t be worth it if your VP pick caused you problems in other respects. Presidential candidates seem to realize this, which is why there have been running mates from non-competitive states such as Delaware and Wyoming in recent years. But elections are won on the margins, and Clinton would be marginally better off with Kaine’s help in Virginia than without it......snip~

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-the-election/

 

Honestly, I do give people with opposing views the benefit of the doubt--BUT, a person would have to be beyond delusional (with consideration of checking themselves in for a voluntary 48-hour mental health evaluation) if they seriously thought that Trump had a prayer of carrying ALL 3 (OH, FL and PA) of the major swing states.

Trump has a better chance of LOSING ALL 3.

PF's delusional pro-Trump echo chamber never ceases to amuse me.

 

She'll be fine. Over 3 months til election day. She's still going to win in a landslide.

 

Trump has a better chance of getting hit by a meteor than winning the Republican primaries - every leftist with a PF handle.

Should be a fun few weeks, eh?

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Yep, and many more dnc leaked emails to come. I assure you, it can get worse.

 

I assure you, you guys will be just as wrong as you were in 2012 and 2008. You guys should spend this election listening instead of talking.