KC has been letting my husband down. I'm not sure what's up with Mahomes. It used to be we would watch him throw something crazy, and it got caught. Now, when he throws something crazy, I just wince. Blech. The Bears (my team,) has a better record than his team. That hasn't happened in awhile. It's going to be a strange season, but I am enjoying it so far.
The NFL has a lot of parity. It is hard to have a team showing consistent, top performance for 3 years in a row. So, the Chiefs were overdue for some regression to the mean.
Good game on Mon. Night F'ball, for anyone who's not watching, on ESPN. Bills (4-1) at Titans (3-2). I haven't been watching this year, until I caught the end of last night's Cowboy - Patriot game. Which was good enough for me to check in again, tonight. I caught the end of the 3rd qtr., to see the Titans come from behind, on a nice TD drive, to take the lead, w/ the P.A.T., 24 to 23. Then Bills came back with their own TD. They converted for 2, on the extra point, with a pass to the QB, off of a double reverse, giving them a 7-point lead, 31 to 24. Titans responded with a FG, in the 4th, and just now forced Bills to punt. 8 mins. left, Buffalo still up, 31-27, but Tennessee just got the ball back. Nice passing game, Titans have going, though not great coverage by the Bills. Tennessee just got another TD, and the see-saw continues, 34 to 31.
OMG!! Bills just returned kickoff from his own goal line, all the way! But offensive holding negates it. Bills passing game is working, also, & Titan defense seems deficient. Two-minute warning. Bills now in the red zone. Huge risk the Bills are taking. 4th & a half-yard to go, at the Titan 3 yard line. I would take the FG. They came up short. Like I said; a foolish gamble.
I'm a bit distressed at the Bill's defeat to the Titans (the Bills are my second favorite NFL team). Josh Allen is great. He got very close to winning the game but failed by a hair. Sure, he threw an interception, but otherwise played very well and deserved the win.
That is the the new NFL though Doug Pederson did it a ton and now everyone else does. Just like going for 2 up 7 or down 8
Still. It was a Horrible call. I couldn't care less about the "new NFL". Obviously, it was a high risk/high reward call. If he makes it, he's a genius... If he misses it, the Monday Morning QBs are gonna call him out. If he kicks the field goal--nobody is going to question the call. That was too high risk of a call in that spot. I would've kicked it and played for OT.
I understand your point. but I will give you the mathematical aspect. The odds of them winning the game are better if they go for it then settle for the FG. That is how the analytics have changed the game I am old school - I would have taken the FG as well personally
I don't know. I hate OT. If you lose the toss your offense may never see the ball. I would like OT rules to be changed, in order to give to both teams the ball in offense regardless of what the first team that has it, does with it. Given the current OT rules, I'd rather try the high reward call to try and win the game once and for all. I like gutsy calls. Go for it. Try to win. The odds of winning there were higher than the odds of winning the OT, which already drop significantly because you have to face the 50% odds of the coin toss, (the team that wins the toss often wins OT) and then you need to still perform for the full length of the field. How many opportunities are there in 80+ yards of not making it? Many. There, the Bills were inches away. They usually do get a few inches when they need them. They have the most prolific NFL offense. Their QB is a huge rush threat. He advanced the ball over and over during the game by a lot more than those inches. So the coach trusted him. Well, he failed, but by a hair. It happens. But the call did not bother me (and I'm a Bills fan). Losing disappointed me, and I lamented that we were so close to winning, but I don't blame the coach for the call. If they went for the FG and tied the game, lost the toss, and suffered a TD in OT, they'd have lost anyway. Or even if they won the toss, instead of inches, they'd have to still go 80 yards to get a TD, otherwise the other team would win with a FG. Someone has to win. The call could have worked. It did not. Oh well. It happens. The Titans won. Better luck next time.
And one of the announcers was endorsing his call, saying some crap about it shows that he has faith in his guys. To me, it seemed like a simple probabilities question. A field goal is near certain, there. So you are weighing whether you give these guys, you so believe in, all the opportunities of an entire overtime period, or do you let it all ride on just one play? And, of course, even getting the first down would be of no value, if they couldn't get it in the end zone, in the moments that remained on the clock. It just seems like the potential, on any single play, for a defensive player making a great play, or for, in any other way, things to not go according to plan, make this more of a gamble, than having real trust in your team to outplay it's opponent.
This post shows that calculating odds is not your strong suit, doctor. Because the team who wins the coin toss "often wins overtime," is a LONG way from implying that their odds of winning in OT are no better than 50 - 50, because of the coin toss. First, let's acknowledge the 50% chance the Bills would have had to WIN the coin toss. Then, even if they lose it, the only way that the Bills don't still get the ball, is if the Titans score a TD. If you feel your team has less than a 50% chance to stop a field-length, touchdown drive, in OT, then you might as well throw in the towel on any Championship hopes you had for them, right now. You seem to understand this reality, only as it applies to the Bills offense/Titans defense: This is another, overly-rough calculation. First, for accuracy's sake, they needed about half a yard. Even if the Bills "usually," can get a half a yard on a 3rd down, or rare 4th down play, I would guess their conversion rate, in these situations, is still significantly lower than the kicker's odds of nailing the FG. Then, you should realize, as a football fan, that you cannot apply the same expectations, down at the goal line, as you would if the play were occurring outside of the red zone. This is because as the team nears it's opponent's goal, the space they have to work with, and that the defense needs to cover, shrinks! This means that what a team, "usually," accomplishes at midfield, is NOT what any knowledgeable person expects, when all the players are bunched together, at the goal line. So I would not have given the Bills, under those conditions, a better than 50% chance of getting the first down, with the Titans basically knowing where they were going to be running (near the middle of the line). Then, as I mentioned just before this, to Andrew Jackson, just getting you the first down does not win you the game. In fact, unless you can get the rest of the way, in that cramped area, over the goal line-- I remind you, these are the most difficult yards on the entire field, for any offense-- in the only moments that remained on the clock, then getting a first down would count for nothing. You can, "like (those type of) gutsy calls," all you want. But, in this case, it was not the smart call.
Why? It's not a playoff game or elimination match is it? We have draws in rugby, soccer and cricket. A draw is often the most exiting result.
We have draws too. in regular season. If after 10 minutes of overtime the score remains tied, that's a draw. It happens rarely, but it does happen.
Ah OK. I've always been a fan of replays. Imagine if England and Italy had to go back a week later (maybe in Italy) and play again.
I'd have been happier with that than losing on penalties. Still do the extra time but after that it's replayed. Would lead to better extra-time too, you wouldn't get teams shutting right down hoping to go to penalties. Might be better to have this conversation here http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?threads/international-sports-bar.586190/ If you are interested in continuing it.
Nah, I was just pulling your leg. Although I do believe that if we had Spinazzola back, and if Chiesa didn't get injured mid-way, we'd have won that game without the need for penalty shoot-out. These two were so essential to our offense's creativity and goal-scoring opportunities, that without them we barely managed to survive. The Azzurra is one team with them, and another team without them. Which is sad because it betrays a lack of depth. We haven't figured out the center forward position, either. We need a better one than Immobile. Ever since, we had a drop in performance. If we played the game again, I'm no certain if we'd win.
