Polls find Trump leading Biden in four battleground states

I lie to the pollsters every time they call me, which is often. I live in California and am registered as a Democrat so they over sample by a large margin. They eat it up when I tell them of my adoration for Biden and Harris. I laugh like crazy when I hang up with them.

Trafalgar correctly predicted a Trump win in 2016 while the others the Democrats are relying on said Hillary would win easily. Like 2016, one only need to see the difference between the turn out for Trump/Pence rallies vs Biden/Harris. They've made theirs private so the press won't see the embarrassing turn out. Election day is just 2 days away. Good luck with your senile candidate Liberals, maybe Jill can say out of the corner of her mouth...."Vote for Biden".

 

The Tralfalger poll is unreliable and a complete joke.
^And everybody knows that.

And, it's not considered serious (or even trustworthy) by other professional pollsters.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver and Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman are among those deeply skeptical of Cahaly’s polling.
Both have dug into the crosstabs of Trafalgar polls and pointed to questionable breakdowns as evidence Trafalgar doesn’t know what it’s doing. For instance, the crosstabs in a Michigan poll, which are no longer online, appeared to show Trump leading Biden by 8 points among young voters, a Democratic stronghold.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523426-positive-trump-polls-spark-polling-circle-debate

 

The thread TITLE is misleading as is the title of the article that it is based upon since it gives the FALSE impression that these "polls" are from DIFFERENT sources.

The INDISPUTABLE fact is that ALL of these polls come from a SINGLE source.

That single source has very little in the way of credibility. A single LUCKY call 4 years ago does NOT equate to credibility.

Back in 2016 there was a 35% possibility that the wannabe Fascist-in-Chief would win and with the aid of GOP voter SUPPRESSION that is what occurred.

NOW in 2020 there is only a 10% possibility and widespread GOP voter suppression.

Does one offset the other?

The DATA shows 92 MILLION Americans have ALREADY voted which is 66% of the 2016 turnout of 139 million.

Based upon those ballots and the KNOWN REGISTRATION of about 45 million of them it appears that the Dems are ahead by a 3:2 margin. Registration does NOT equate to voting but it is what we have NOW to go on

Pew did some research into 2018 versus 2018 and this finding was interesting.

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods...m-multiple-sources-in-2018-midterm-victories/



When you look at the BOTTOM graphic it tells us about those who either ABSTAINED or voted 3RD PARTY in 2016. Combined that came to 16% of the 2018 turnout and since 2% still voted 3rd party that means that 14% voted either for D or R candidates. That split the 14% 53:44 or to put it into percentage terms the Dems had 7.4% compared to 6.2% for the GOP.

Worth noting that the 44% support for the GOP closely aligns to the 41-43% support for the wannabe Fascist-in-Chief.

We KNOW that we had a LOW turnout in 2016.

We KNOW that we had a RECORD turnout in 2018.

We KNOW that we have ALREADY set new RECORDS for 2020.

If we EXTRAPOLATE the findings above then the Dems have 48.8% of the ballots compared to 40.5% for the GOP.

That 8% Dem lead matches the CREDIBLE polling and ALIGNS with the all of the other KNOWN data points.

So where does that leave us?

What that tells us is that there are NO "shy" supporters of the wannabe Fascist-in-Chief.

 

It doesn’t seem to me that there are any shy trump followers.
They are loud, in your face and aggressive and are trying to intimidate others at the polls.

 

Troubles with logic 101 lately?

the existence of loud Trump voters doesn't preclude the existence of the shy trump voter. Not being recognized by the leftist cancel culture as a Trump voter - that's kinda the idea of staying "shy". duh

 

Get ready for Election Day:

“A national Gallup poll released earlier this week showed that, unlike previous election cycles, a massive partisan gap has emerged between those who plan to vote early and those who plan to wait until Election Day. The survey found that 62% of Democratic registered voters plan to vote early or indicated they have already voted, compared with just 28% of Republican voters. This whopping 34-percentage-point gap is striking, considering that over the past four presidential elections, it hasn’t been greater than 2%.”

If 62% of dems have voted and only 28% of republicans have voted and the dems don’t have a 2.5:1 lead on Election Day, they’re going to get blown out.

 

a. professionally constructed polls have safeguards against this kind of thing. They are far from foolproof but they do exist and particularly come into play in times of strong polarisation

b. In 2016 everyone thought Hillary was a lock but she was personally disliked, so a lot of her putative supporters either stayed home or voted "protest" for 3rd parties, write-ins etc

c. Trump OTOH was the Great White Hope for the alt.right/white nationalist branch of the Republicans. This was their Big Chance, the only time I can recall when the radical racists/ethnicists actually had the backing of a major party. Nobody thought they would win, but NO Republican stayed home in 2016

That's why they won, (or actually just came close enough that the Electoral College gave it to them anyway.)

The situation now is very different. Many other factors come into play but first and most important NO Dems will stay at home this time. Many more Dems will vote in 2020 than did so in 2016. The Republicans OTOH have shot their bolt already, There are NO more Republican voters than there were in 2016 and it is incomprehensible to me that the pubs have not lost considerable numbers, let alone gained any.

Given the already huge turnout, I predict that Trump is toast unless the KGB really HAS hacked the actual voting machines. The only way to stop that is to bury the cheating in a Democratic landslide. For God's sake VOTE

 

I think that is being skewed by the fact that many of the Dems who said they already voted had mailed their votes in. Early voting was very strongly urged for mail-ins. Does anyone know of data that took this into account?

 

Have you MISSED the FACT that there are FEWER Republicans than Dems?

Are you fallaciously ASSUMING that not a single Dem will vote in person on Tuesday?

Whenever there is HIGHER than normal voter TURNOUT the GOP alwasy loses!

The FACT that there is already HIGHER voter turnout across the board is WHY it will NOT be the Dems that are "going to get blown out".

Furthermore it is entirely possible that those EARLY Republican ballots CONTAIN votes for Biden because they are from SHY Biden supporters who are otherwise registered Republicans.

The outcome of this election is UNLIKELY to be known by midnight on the 3rd.

 

So many thing wrong with this post that its easier instead to say what's right.

You had pretty good punctuation.

All downhill after that.

 

I believe that. I mean, I can’t be the only American voter that is waiting for Election Day to cast my vote.

 

Unlike you, I do not belong to any political party nor have I ever; that way I don't get those pesky phone calls from pollsters, phone calls from political parties asking for money, no junk mail from politicians and no one knocking at my door.

Why anyone (unless they are very lonely and have no one to talk to) would want unsolicited phone calls is a mystery to me.

 

Grammarly helps a lot, but I still get semicolons wrong

Go thee forth and multiply

 

[QUOTE="Professor Peabody, post: 1072174989, member: 4888"]I lie to the pollsters every time they call me, which is often.[/QUOTE]

That says VOLUMES about the supporters of the wannabe Fascist-in-Chief.

 

That says VOLUMES about the supporters of the wannabe Fascist-in-Chief.[/QUOTE]

There is absolutely nothing wrong with lying to the Party of Slavery.

 

There is absolutely nothing wrong with lying to the Party of Slavery.[/QUOTE]

There is no "Party of Slavery".

Slavery was something that Southern White Racists where willing to DESTROY our nation over.

Their DESCENDANTS now belong to the GOP.

 

And she was more popular than Biden. Even with Obamas help had turnouts at rallies that crush Bidens attempt.

Wasn't it those same white nationalist who put Obama in office, twice? So much for the racist theory.

Apparently you aren't up on current events. Republicans have door knocked about 1 million a week and doubled new registrations compared to Democrats.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...tion-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674

So the only way Trump can win is if the KGB helps? Are you going to claim they hacked the US mail as well? You should get used to the fact that Democrats don't have an enthusiastic voter crowd this year. Hence the low registrations and voter turn out to Biden events. Democrats tried to claim that voter turn out for Trump rallies vs Clinton/Obama rallies had no meaning but we found out differently.

Not to mention that registration for Trump rally tickets are reaching 30% Democrat request and a lot of polls are showing blacks voting for Trump in numbers never seen before. Some are now claiming up to 30%.

 

Needless to say to this IMAGINARY "some" lacks credible substantiation.

 

Sorry, the fake story about Dixiecrats that changed parties was debunked about the same time it came out. Or you would be able to name all these Republican politicians who switched parties. Over 200 hundred of them according to the Southern Strategy myth. But if you can list them I am willing to listen. Problem is, nobody on the left has ever been able to do that to date.

 

Then you should blame the imaginary press and the imaginary NAACP. They don't think its imaginary.

 

It’s a great poll if you want Accuracy

 

Do you understand the stark difference between POLITICIANS and VOTERS?

 

Still cannot produce this IMAGINARY "some" who ALLEGEDLY belong to the NAACP?

Sad!

 

There was never a switch..

 

You misspelled Confirmation Bias!