Stanford Epidemiologist On COVID Death Rate: 0.15%

According to the CDC....In 2020, approximately 3,358,814 deaths occurred in the United States (Table). The age-adjusted rate was 828.7 deaths per 100,000 population, an increase of 15.9% from 715.2 in 2019. The highest overall numbers of deaths occurred during the weeks ending April 11, 2020, (78,917) and December 26, 2020 (80,656) (Figure 1). Death rates were lowest among persons aged 5–14 years (13.6) and highest among persons aged ≥85 years (15,007.4); age-adjusted death rates were higher among males (990.5) than among females (689.2).

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70...m 2019 to 2020, the,(91.5 deaths per 100,000).

 

Really...

Smallpox only has a 1% mortality rate in the unvaccinated.
Polio was less than 1% in children
The Flu is less than .1 %
Cholera is less than 1% with treatment.

 

Who is "they"?

I only made two references to "they". One was "flu and covid viruses" and the other was referring to a sizable portion of the populace who has bought into the nonsense that their TV screens show them. This information is easily gathered from my post.

You made that implication in your prior post. It is the logical conclusion of what you said. Again, I am not your average forum user. I am capable of taking statements to their logical conclusions.

Okay.

Okay. Typically, I note that credentials mean nothing on an internet forum such as this one, and I typically do not believe people when they make claims of such credentials, but in this case, I do believe that you have a wife who is a nurse.

Your wife must not work around many different types of diseases then... There are many diseases which are far worse than COVID is... COVID is a rather mild SARS variant. I have had a few family members get COVID. None of them had any symptoms beyond loss of taste/smell and a slight cough.

Believe what you will.

 

Listen to you, you don't know anyone who died - therefor it's all ok.

Cracks me up - the same people who argue till their spleen explodes that they need to have a gun to protect themselves
from the one-in-million chance that they will need it for a home invasion are completely dismissive of the one-in-ten thousand
chance they, or a close family member will die from Covid. Risk management isn't their strong suit.

 

It's not useless, it is actually based on fact. Let's look at the US as a whole. With a population of 328 million, a case fatality rate of 0.15% would mean 492,000 deaths IF EVERYONE HAD BEEN INFECTED. We have 550,000+ deaths. That means that the 0.15% fatality rate IS 100% not true, it has to be higher than that, actually much higher - unless one believes that 100% of Americans had covid. I don't know why we even have a discussion about a hypothetical number that is so easily discredited.

 

What the literal f***? You could post this sappy bullshit about almost ANY facet of society. People are going to die. It sucks.

 

Still spreading that BS?

There are ` million home invasions a year, 27% of which results in violence to an occupant.

https://www.creditdonkey.com/home-i... 1.03,know this and use it to their advantage.

 

All fun and games until that teen who's been locked in his house for a year has finally had enough and pulls the trigger.

 

And you could be this callous about any of the causes of death in our society, but it doesn't change the fact that mitigation saves lives, and lives are more important than a few people's stock portfolios.

You know what should have been done differently? Republicans should have done a lot more to bolster the economy and support those worst affected by shutdowns and other mitigation measures. We should have had something like Biden's stimulus package a lot sooner.

 

What is the distribution of elderly in your county?

 

It doesn't matter what the distribution is. In my county, as well as the whole US, a 0.15% case fatality rate would mean that 100% of the whole population would have been infected, which is not the case. Therefore, we KNOW that the 0.15% FR ABSOLUTELY CANNOT BE CORRECT. It is not a matter of opinion, it is a matter of mathematical impossibility.

 

Well it actually does matter. A lot. If everyone in your country was 90 years old you would expect a much higher death rate than the global average. I know you're smarter than that...

 

Quote: an increase of 15.9% from 715.2 in 2019.

CONFIRMED!

According to Michigan's Department of Health & Human Services

https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/osr/Provisional/CvdTable1.asp

Michigan's Total Deaths, 2019; 97,812

Michigan's Total Deaths, 2020; 115,407

HOWEVER, back on Dec 31, 2020, and according to worldometers;

Michigan had 13,018 Covid19 Deaths, thus, 1,304 deaths per 1M pop
Nationally, we had 363,664 Deaths, thus, 1,092 deaths per 1M pop
a differential of 212 Deaths per 1M pop

Now, if we were to substract said differential from Michigan's total deaths, thus, make both National and Michigan's Covid19 death toll ''at par'' per 1M pop;

Michigan's 2020's 115,407 Total Deaths - (212 X 9.98 M) = 113,292 Deaths, thus, a near 15.9% increase from 2019's 97,812 Total Deaths.

We have a match!

 

That's a double-edged sword: it is certainly valid to calculate death rate based on total cases, not just those diagnosed, reported, & recorded, but 1) how can one know how many have been infected, in lieu of testing (it seems to call on very speculative estimation), and, 2) in that case, it is only mathematically, & logically, appropriate that one ALSO adjust for unrecorded Covid deaths. Just as surely as there have been many uncounted coronavirus infections, worldwide, there have been uncounted deaths. To use a case total, inflated from documented numbers with a guesstimate, but stick to the, "official," count, w/ respect to deaths, is clearly a flawed method of calculation.

 

It is not based on interesting facts. What about the numbers I cited? A while ago I saw the CDC publish an IFR of 0.4%, which is in line indicates 1.3 million deaths if everyone is infected. This would imply a little less than half of Americans have been infected, a fairly plausible number. Sometime ago I estimated 700,000 US deaths before herd immunity given the 0.4% number.

Now, the 0.15% is a global estimate. The US is full of old and fat people, so 0.4% is not unreasonable.Most of the world is much younger and slimmer.

 

Hospitals.

Not even close.

In her decade plus she has seen all sorts of diseases and conditions.

COVID is not a rather mild SARS variant, that is just bull ****.

Yes, many people that get COVID have that experience, but those that end up in the hospital are on the other end of the spectrum. Many people that had problems with COVID are now seeing problems that have persisted for months. Right now we have no good idea what the long term effects of will be, but COVID lung is going to be a problem.

Always.

I am not prone to CTs, I am far too much of a skeptic for that

 

So, you agree that, for the US, 0.15% FR is NOT a mathematical possibility?

As to a 0.4% FR, requiring that pretty much half of all Americans would have had covid, this is possible, but highly unlikely. We have 31 million reported covid cases. If half of Americans had been infected, that is 164 million, or 5-times the 31 million known cases. Maybe in the early stages of the pandemic many cases were missed, due to lack of testing, but I highly doubt that only one in five cases is currently being detected. In addition, together with 37% of Americans already having received one dose of vaccine, with 50% already immune through innate immunity, this would mean we have reached herd immunity. This is clearly not the case, as the covid numbers remain stubbornly high.

In conclusion, a case fatality rate below 1% is wishful thinking and doesn't hold up to scrutiny, at least not for the US.

 

So, some statements in this thread got me to thinking about "social distancing".

Prior to the government giving it a name and telling people they should do it, it was done all the time out of pure common sense.

If a co-worker told you they were sick you on instinct stayed a bit further away from them. If someone was coughing or sneezing, people moved away from them...which is the very epitome of social distancing.

But once the government and medical professional told people it was a good idea, all of a sudden a group of people no longer wanted to do it, though I bet 100 bucks they all did the things I listed above.

 

Yes, i concur.

I don't find it unlikely at all. Some one estimated that asymptomatic cases are about 5 times symptomatic ones.

Many of those receiving the vaccine have natural immunity already, I should think

All herd immunity means is that an infected person infects a little fewer than one other person. the number of daily infections might well decrease slowlly.

 

Man, you really need to stop presenting facts into this debate. "Muh feelings" and emotional bribery is all that matters to COVIDiots.

Oh, I am disappointed because I don't think I've seen "But what about the childrenz?" yet.

 

Guns are also good for the Government tyranny which has arrived here in the former USA...

 

Are they? Does not seem like they are doing much to stop it right now.

 

Don't worry, that lame appeal to emotion has already been done in this thread (post #50).

 

Yes indeed, more evidence that this was a planned event. The preponderance of the evidence of the deception grows day by day, though so many cannot face it.

 

No, it wasn't.

Not really... People were sensical in that they would stay home from work if they were sick and what not, and wouldn't purposely spread their germs around, but people largely weren't germophobes, freaking out if a sick person was around them for a short while. They most certainly did not place dots on the ground for where to stand.

The government didn't recommend it ("telling people it was a good idea"), they MANDATED it, and people didn't do it before. They didn't play hop scotch at the grocery store before. Get real.

You lost 100 bucks. I didn't play hopscotch in grocery stores. I didn't jump out of the way whenever I saw someone cough or sneeze. I didn't avoid people because they had a bit of a cough or sneezed a few times. I still hung around them all the same. I still do that to this very day. There's nothing to be afraid of.