The numbers are in, and Trump's tax cut didn't reduce the deficit – despite his many promises

Debt as a percentage of GDP is not the main figure that IMF uses to calculate if a nation is in trouble or not. Regardless - the chart you put up does not include when Trump came in to power even if we were to discuss that figure.

This chart shows up to 2017 = I have yet to find the number for the 2018 fiscal year - Trumps first fiscal year. Since the year just ended sites have yet to update their charts.




The number I found for FY 2018 is "In FY 2018 the federal deficit was 3.9 percent of GDP"
https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/federal_deficit_percent_gdp

Since GDP increased 3.6% for 2018 ... rate of deficit growth was higher than the rate of GDP growth.

Your claim that Trump has reduced the growth of the Federal Debt is not true. Your claim that the rate of growth of the debt relative to GDP growth has been reduced is not true.

If we look at what is projected for the future ... it is not good. By 2023 our projected increase is expected to be 8% - which is huge.

https://qz.com/1258097/the-us-is-a-major-outlier-among-advanced-economies-in-one-big-scary-way/

 

q4 16 Public debt to GDP was 105.26%
Q2 18 Public debt to GDP is 103.84%

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product [GFDEGDQ188S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S, October 17, 2018.

Please post a link from IMF that claims that a nation that has reduced its Debt to GDP ratio, while nearly doubling its GDP growth rate is now in WORST financial shape than it was with higher debt to GDP and nearly half the GDP growth rate. I'll wait while you dig that up.

It most certainly is true.

Obama's final five full quarters averaged annualized growth of 1.58%
Trump's first five full quarters averaged annualized growth of 2.9%
Trump's growth rate is 84% better than Obama-The-Unfortunate's.

It most certainly is true. So far, over Trump's Presidency, he has reduced the Debt to GDP by 1.42% of GDP. In Obama's closing quarters, covering the same length of time, Debt to GDP GREW by 4.25%

Screw the projections, they are always infected with Left-wing bias. Use the hard numbers.

NO projection predicted that Trump would nearly double GDP growth even while he reduced the Debt to GDP ratio. They all said that his growth predictions were "pipedreams" and that the Debt would "skyrocket" even as the stock market crashed and unemployment soared.

You guys love the "projections" more than the actual numbers, just like you guys love the polls and hate the election results.

We do have structural budget problems, but there is no will to fix it. Trump has already said that he isn't touching social security and medicare, if you want to reform entitlements in order to improve the long term budget outlook then have the Democrats put forward their plans. This isn't something that can properly addressed without broad bipartisan support.

And frankly, if Trump can close the trade gap, we will be looking at real GDP growth in the 5% range and we will be able to meet these obligations without cuts.

He's doing as good of a job as one man can do, and its going ONE HELL of a lot better than anyone predicted.

You know it,
I know it,
The American People know it.

NOW LET THE MAN WORK! When he improves the country, he's helping you Lefties too, you know!

 

Talk about cherry picking. Q1 2018 was 1.05 Q2 is 1.03 Q3 will probably be 1.07.

As stated previously - Trump did 600 Billion in credit card spending the first two quarters of the fiscal year. That is 300 billion dollars higher than the average for the previous 3 years. I would hope you would get a boost to GDP (which ended up at 3.6 for the year )

Any idiot can increase GDP with massive credit card spending (increasing the deficit). What is difficult is doing this while reducing the deficit.

 

Not cherry picking, I left NOTHING out.

Trump INCREASED GDP growth while lowering the rate of increase in the Federal Debt, so naturally he lowered the Debt as a percentage of GDP, Silly!

 

For f’s sake. You’ve been shown MULTIPLE times that the deficit increased because Obama actually accounted for what Bush didn’t. Obama actually accounted for what Bush put on the “credit card”. The AMT, and the Suplimental spending bills etc.

 

The same CBO that stated that the affordable care act was deficit neutral? HAH! I think the CBO is batting a 1000 on screwing up an analysis. Regardless, the majority of the tax burden is held by earners making > $150K which is empirical. The Middle class receives the most benefit of the tax policy, also empirical.

 

Ahh can you try to make some sense my numbers are TOTAL spending.

 

And as usual you must hide behind your empty rhetoric. You asked me what the Democrats could have done to help mitigate and recession and get us into a full recovery and I gave you a list of things. Lack of repsonse noted.

Now answer my question.
YOU tell me what they DID do that helped to mitigate the damage that worked and got us into a full recovery and kept the deficits from exploding and got everyone back to work in short order, you never want to answer that question. Obama sold his stimulus as it would hold unemployment to 8%, it was 7% at the time, and then it would quickly fall. Instead it soar to 10% with a steep decline in LFPR and stayed over 9% for two years and didn't get down below 7 for what 5 years? Tell me what they did that worked.

 

I think you get the prize for the common sense response of the month...

The Democrats are desperate and will do anything to try to dupe as many as they can.

 

The majority of the tax burden is held by earners making more money because the tax system is designed that way. And for a very good purpose.

And no, the CBO did not claim that the ACA was deficit neutral. The ACA has effectively reduced the deficit.

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-...obama/obama-health-care-driving-down-deficit/

 

Step 1: Pass tax cuts for the rich and the corporations to drive up the deficit.

Step 2: Freak out about the deficit and blame the poor in order to cut welfare program spending.

Step 3: Rinse and repeat.

 

Um, the fiscal year is irrelevant for analytics. Creating a sample of similar times points as a source of comparison is how analytics work to understand linear trends.

 

They controlled the budget and fiscal policy.

 

Ahh funny how you forgetting all those pen regulation killers.

And of course a families healthcare premium averaged 13k per year in 2008 and today it's almost 20k, today. So the government may be saving money if what you say is true and of course their savings is coming out of our pockets monthly.

 

You pointed to an article from 2014, Hah! And yes, the deficit grew under ACA as the CBO's GDP growth projections were never met. They were using fantasy growth numbers that were not even close to achieving. They also had a hard time hitting their enrollment numbers which drove the deficit as there wasn't enough to pay for the subsidies.

Forbes in 2016 laid it out fairly well why the shortfall from ACA.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnma...nt-debt-is-worse-than-you-think/#4d4a547815f9

 

Healthcare costs rose at the lowest pace in 40 years.

 

You did cherry pick. 2018 Q1 was 1.05 and Q2 was 1.03 - you cherry picked Q2 because it makes your case but Q1 does not.. Same with the quarter from Obama that you cherry picked out.

You have to do a fiscal year by fiscal year comparison for your claim to have any validity. I gave you the numbers for the end of the fiscal year in a previous post and the rate has increased.

You are having trouble understanding the difference between debt as a ratio of GDP and the rate of increase in the federal debt.

Trump did not lower the rate of increase in the Federal Debt. He increased it. The deficit number tells you that. Trumps deficit was nearly 800 Billion and Obama's last fiscal year (2017) the deficit was 666 Billion. The 2 years before that it was roughly 550 Billion.

If you want to talk increase in the debt as a ration of GDP that is a different conversation. If you want to have that conversation you need the end of year number.

I have many weaknesses - Math and Science is not one of them.

 

I did no such thing. the topic is the 2008 crash and 2009 deficit that it cause. Next time you want to jump in to a conversation - at lest try to figure out the conversation you are jumping into is about.

 

Similar times measured in fiscal years . What part of .. you do not cite a quarterly number out of a blue (when talking debt/deficits) and compare it to another quarterly number chosen out of the blue .. do you not understand ?

 

Entirely false. Cherry picking is an improper use of a subset. I used the entire set. You are essentially arguing that the entire set doesn't represent the entire set, which is incoherent.

That is entirely false. These are two different metrics. Trump has reduced the GROWTH in the Federal debt, he has outright reduced the Public Debt as percentage of GDP.

He most certainly did, but about 5%. Trump has been President for 636 days and the debt has increased by
$1,706,488,506,438.40

Over Obama's final 636 days the debt increased by
$1,795,365,192,055.30

Trump reduced the rate of growth of the Federal debt by 5% even as he increased the rate of GDP growth by 84% Quite a remarkable feat, but then he is proving to be damn good at this.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/d...tYear=2015&endMonth=10&endDay=18&endYear=2018

We'll see, but not impressive so far.

 

Well, that's a pile of crap.

Taxes: Critics of the Trump tax cuts said they would blow a hole in the deficit. Yet individual income taxes climbed 6% in the just-ended fiscal year 2018, as the economy grew faster and created more jobs than expected.

The Treasury Department reported this week that individual income tax collections for FY 2018 totaled $1.7 trillion. That's up $14 billion from fiscal 2017, and an all-time high. And that's despite the fact that individual income tax rates got a significant cut this year as part of President Donald Trump's tax reform plan.

https://www.investors.com/politics/...am271MNcrySb_nqmL8cql5JhAjyv800qA49krE7nu_X54

 

This is an open forum and in order lengthy conversation I answered your questions to me I am still waiting for your comments on those and now do the simple courtesy of answering my return questions to you.


YOU tell me what they DID do that helped to mitigate the damage that worked and got us into a full recovery and kept the deficits from exploding and got everyone back to work in short order, you never want to answer that question. Obama sold his stimulus as it would hold unemployment to 8%, it was 7% at the time, and then it would quickly fall. Instead it soar to 10% with a steep decline in LFPR and stayed over 9% for two years and didn't get down below 7 for what 5 years? Tell me what they did that worked.

 

You are not understanding. I already told you that the bulk of the budget is allocated at the beginning of the year. What part of that did you not understand ?

Your claim that Obama increased the deficit by 1.8 Trillion dollars in his final 636 days is 100% falsehood... and what part of you must compare by fiscal year - do you not understand ?

Your comparison to GDP is also flawed and you did not use the entire set ... you cherry picked a bad quarter for Obama and a Good quarter for Trump. You can not take one quarterly GDP state and pretend this represents annual GDP. It doesn't. Also GDP does not tell you how much revenue the Gov't is generating.

The IMF uses the ratio of interest to income to gauge whether or not a nation is fiscally stable.

 

Your blubbering gibberish once again. You did not answer my question to you. I was talking about the 2008 Crash and the 2009 Deficit - you jumped into the conversation - made nonsense claims about the Dem being responsible for the 2009 Deficit - which is a falsehood - essentially blaming the Dem congress for the 2008 Crash.

Next thing you know you are talking about the recession after the fact ?

Now I would be happy to talk about the recession - but, if you are going to cite figures then at least give the time period you are referring to - and a link that backs up your claims ... you know - like I do.

 

This thread and the premise are about as stupid as it gets, but that is exactly what I expect from Progressives.

Tax Cuts are not supposed to reduce the deficit. You are supposed to CUT SPENDING to do that. God forbid, for a depraved Leftist that we actually reduce spending and reduce the impact of Government on citizens' lives.

The Trump Tax Cuts have resulted in RECORD TAX COLLECTION. Cutting them would mean a greater imbalance.