Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

South Dakota, a farm-state, is becoming a COVID-19 hotspot:

https://covidtracking.com/data



South Dakota has a higher positivity rate than Tennessee, which is a far larger state.

Here a google-maps-like map of SD, with red circles to show where there has been an outbreak of COVID-19:



https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

South Dakota is one of the few states where the Governor has not called for shelter-in-place. The outbreak at a meat-factory close to Sioux Falls (I believe, 300 cases alone in the factory), Smithville Foods, makes it clear that where people work in close proximity to each other, there can be a massive outbreak of this horrible disease.

As I wrote earlier in this thread more than once: COVID-19 is quite literally everywhere. It's time to take the blinders off and realize this. Rural communities are every bit as much at risk as urban communities.

 

Die Zukunft ist immer ungewiß, wie das Salz der Suppe des Lebens, also isst doch gut!
The future is always uncertain, like the salt in life's soup, so eat well!

Grööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhl

 

Interestingly enough about SD is the fact that they have not lost a single Covid patient over the last 7 days despite seeing their infections per million double over the course of ~5 days.

 

Oh.... truly horrifying.... for the first time, the USA is over +2,100 COVID-19 deaths within in one day, my time in Germany. This is horrifying as there are still six hours in the day on the East Coast of the USA and this number is guaranteed to rise again.



No doubt that today is by far the worst day of all for the USA until now.

I couldn't breathe for about 30 seconds when I saw that number.

 

That is very, very good news.

 

Hmmm I agree mine number came from the 25th update when we passed them in testing and they can test up to 10,000 per day so they could have done another 190k if maxed out so that would put them at 410k that has been tested. Where are you getting your number from?

 

PROOOOOOOOOOOOOST

groeoeoeoeoeoeoeoehl

 

Hmm 868 cases out of 890,000 people, not sure that the positivity rate tells the story, wish they broke it down by city maybe they have one that's a hotspot but the state has less than 1,000 cases.

 

Huh?

 

Quote: And it is less than truthful comparing us to Canada, who doesn't have NY's density, were a lot of our cases are from.

Well, let's take NYC out of the equation;

14 Apr, 2020

U.S.

Total Cases; 605,354 minus NYC 202,208 = 403,146
Total Deaths; 25,394 minus NYC (10,834) = 14,560
Tot Cases/1M pop; 403,146/330 = 1,222 versus 1,842
Tot Deaths/1M pop; 14,560/330 = 44 versus 78

Canada

Total Cases; 26,897
Total Death; 898
Tot Cases/1M pop; 713
Tot Deaths/1M pop; 24

ONCE AGAIN, due to an early "nation-wide" lockdowns/stay-home measures, compared to the U.S., the Canucks managed to eliminate 1 and 1/4 Covid doubling time;

26,897 Cases X 2 = 53,794 (1 Covid19 doubling time)
26,897 Cases X .25 = 6,724 (1/4 Covid19 doubling time)
53,794 + 6,724 = 60,518

U.S./Canada population ratio (10 to 1)
60,518 X 10 = 605,180 total cases

Shall we take other States out of the equation?

 

The figures in Germany are still very stunning. I think when this crap is over, some people will have a hay day writing their doctors thesis about it. Political, science, management, medical, if they now can get the opening right in a few month...…………………...

 

The guy lies constantly and you think he tells the truth.

No, I think renaming it stupid.

Geezuz, it doesn't matter because Trump and his Trumper types aren't going to rename it.

Canada is as urbanized as the U.S.

 

A couple of points/questions that I would like to start tracking and would appreciate any information that you have on the subject:

1) Do the States tend to revise their numbers throughout the day or is it the case that once a report for a specific State is in to Worldofmeters that the number stays the same for the rest of the day?

2) Are there specific days of the week that tend to be higher (like Tuesdays as suggested by this tweet from Nate Silver because they are the result of a backlog in reporting)?

 

I had to do a search to find this post of yours from pages back.

How about a theory that the people of East Asia have a common practice of wearing masks in public to prevent the spread and contraction of disease, well before this virus came along? Every other place in the world waffled back and forth. I kept thinking the truth was the shortage of masks which needed to be reserved for healthcare workers versus the story "Oh well, we don't really think masks are that helpful."

What got me to thinking about this today (and looking for your post about East Asians having some heightened immunity, is that I was reading an article that the U.S. never had a pandemic preparedness plan until 911 under the Bush Administration when the higher-ups first started to worry about biological warfare (specifically that some country might drop smallpox or Antrax on us). That article led me to the name Thomas Bossert, who worked for Bush in the newly-created Homeland Security department back then. Trump tapped him early as his first Homeland Security advisor. (He's now a network commentator.) That led me to looking at Mr. Bossert's Twitter....which got me thinking about masks.

It makes absolute sense that with a potentially huge number of spreaders walking around without any symptoms, something as simple as wearing masks out in public could easily draw down the infection rates. That could explain East Asians lower rates.

Bossert is asserting that the Czech Republic is doing well, possibly because they mandated masks.

Question to @Statistikhengst: What percent of Germans would you guess are wearing masks in public?

 

One is the hub of world wide business and travel, Canada in the middle of winter, not so much. You can't really compare the two but we can all agree well most that china created a mess. What I also know that Trump's border shutdown was done before Canada's and his guidelines as well.

 

More on the mask theory.

March 31: https://www.newser.com/story/288910/4-european-countries-make-masks-mandatory.html

4 European Countries Make Masks Mandatory
Austria orders all shoppers to wear 'alien' masks

 

California acted early and has numbers similar to Canada. There are a lot of dead Americans because Trump was grandstanding. I'd talk about Trump having the dead people on his conscience but I don't think he has one.

 

Czechoslovakian PSA:

 

Wonder if the fever in early pregnancy is enough to cause birth defects?

 

I think given what we've seen happen across the world, the chances of the new cases going to 0 any time soon is 0 in the US. Even South Korea, China, and Taiwan still have new cases daily. There is no nation I am aware of that has gone to 0. What we may hope for is a much lower relatively linear number after some time, but that is the best case scenario we have seen happen anywhere else in the world thus far.

 

Exactly one month ago this evening, on March 14th, 2020, I began this thread. HERE is the OP. This is what the COVID-19 numbers looked like in the OP:



And yesterday:

And now, today:

*1,991,275*
+72,596 cases today over yesterday
126,000 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
2,216 Americans died from COVID-19 today.​

At end of my day, 11:58 PM on April 14th, 2020 (GMT +2), here the COVID-19 numbers:



Today, we came in right under the 2 million mark; 12 days ago, we shot over the 1 million mark. So, that's 990,000 cases in 12 days. We will definitely cross over the 2 million mark tomorrow.

The mortality rate (number of total deaths / number of total confirmed COVID-19 cases) moved upward to 6.33% (It was 6.21% yesterday at EOD). That is an enormously high death rate, which has moved incrementally from 3.41% when I began tracking the numbers on 02/27 to now over 6%. That is an almost 3% jump in the death rate in 7 weeks time and also the fifth day in a row where we have seen a 6% mortality rate.


The Excel-Table:



We saw +72,596 new cases today, as compared to yesterday over the day before (+71,584). The growth rate was 3.78%. Yesterday, the growth rate was 3.88%. That is more cases than yesterday, but percentually, a smaller growth rate, and that is a very important data-point.

In terms of deaths: 125,951 total, +6,739 today over yesterday, making for a 5.65% growth rate (yesterday: 4.66%). And of course, the death rate, as already noted above, was: 6.33% That is more deaths today than yesterday and the fourth highest daily death total until now.

The % of recovered people rose from 23.10% yesterday to 23.46% at EOD today. The recovery percentage continues to rise incrementally. This tells me that more and more cases are being resolved. But since the death rate is also rising, the cases are being resolved in one of two ways, which we already know will happen, but the intensity of this phase of the pandemic, namely, resolution, after having reached a low point twice, is climbing again.

And per country, most of the countries, first per total cases, (1,000 cases or above):





There are now 74 nations in the "thousand club, with Uzbekistan and Bangladesh having passed the 1,000 line . Of those 74, 23 are now in the "10,000 club" (Peru just went over the 10,000 mark) and 5 of them are at 100,000 or more (USA, Spain, Italy Germany and France). Tomorrow or at the latest, on Thursday, the UK will go over the 100,000 mark.

Russia is now at 21,000 cases, but the actual number of case there may be 20 times higher. Turkey has shot up to 65,000 cases; at this rate, Turkey will surge past China within the next 3 days. India, which joined the 10,000 club yesterday, has jumped to 11,500 , whereas Pakistan is at 5,800. Both countries are very obviously lying about their COVID-19 problem, and brazenly, at that. Brasil has jumped from 22,000 to 25,000 cases. North Macedonia, Cameroon and Slovakia are up next to cross the 1,000 line, either tomorrow or Thursday.

And here, first per new deaths today, in descending numerical order, then in total deaths, also descending.





The USA had a tragic, horribly record-setting day today, with the most deaths today till now for any one country: 2,216. Yesterday, it was 1,380. UK reported 778. Those are absolutely horrific numbers and for the United States, set a new, horrifying record that no one wants.

To compare to the beginning of this thread exactly one month ago, we have come from 156,086 to 1,991,275 total confirmed COVID-19 cases. That's a jump of 1,835,189 cases and represents an almost 13-fold growth rate in one month. One month ago, we had 5,821 deaths across the planet. Today, we reached 125,591 deaths, a jump of 119,770 deaths since this thread began and represents an almost 22-fold growth rate - in just one month.

To put this into perspective: the current number of confirmed COVID-19 cases = the population of Minsk (Ukraine) or slightly less than the population of Houston, TX (USA), the number of deaths = just under the total population of San Bernardino, CA (USA) and the number of recovered = the total population of Sacramento, CA (USA). This is how big these numbers have become.

The curve is within a flattening right now, which means a possible plateau-phase. The doubling is definitely slowing down some. Currently, the curve is logistic and not exponential, because the time-space for doublings is increasing. However, right now, it could take off again. So, caution in analysis is advisable.

-Stat

 

The screenshots come from worldometers, which is a pretty handy site to keep updated with how things are going in each nation on a day to day basis:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

There are other resources you can use for that granular data. While I haven't found one that reports tests at a county level, here are a couple that will give you county by county infection / death data:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

For South Dakota, you can see the county with by far the most reported cases is Minnehaha, which is also the most populous county. Probably a fair assumption to make for any given state as the most urban areas tend to also have the most cases.

 

lol how many were saved by ending China to send infected over and you talk about Trump grandstanding. snicker mirrors must be tough....

 

I looked at world meters my problem with them is you can create an account and simply add data so I'm very skeptical of their numbers.

 

Indeed:



Germany is the only nation in the 100,000 club with deaths under 5 digit numbers. Not only that, among all nations with 75,000 cases or more, Germany still has the lowest number of deaths, lower even than China. Belgium, which has a population that is SEVEN times smaller than the BRD, has more deaths. So, something has been working in Germany.