Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

The 0.9 R-Naught is absolutely amazing news. Finally New York is hitting the point where the infection rate will start to decline.

 

Knowing what we know now, and forthcoming, i.e.

variables

preventive measures/restrictions

do's and don'ts

most vulnerable regions/density

pre-existing conditions among our elders and several ethnic groups

and a whole lot more.....

I'm wondering if a TECH will ever develop a global pandemic simulator?

I know NORAD simulate their wars, but a pandemic?....human behaviour is an important factor to be considered.

 

Yes, that's with about 25% (average) more people staying home than normal. Much higher in the hardest hit boroughs.



https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-shelter-in-place

 

Daily updates:

This morning at 10:00, GMT +2.

This morning at 10:08, GMT +2 (USA only).

This afternoon at 14:30, GMT +2.

This evening at 18:45, GMT +2 (Russia only).


And now, EOD today:

*2,402,980*
+79,221 cases today over yesterday.
165,641 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
1,464 Americans died from COVID-19 today.​

At end of my day, 11:38 PM on April 19th, 2020 (GMT +2), here the COVID-19 numbers:



Today, at 23:33 GMT +2, we climbed over the 2.4 million mark in COVID-19 cases; just yesterday, we came in over the 2.3 million mark and the day before that, we came in over the 2.2 million mark and the day before that, in the morning, we came over the 2.1 million mark. 17 days ago, we shot over the 1 million mark. It's as if the 100,000 markers are merely speed-bumps on the highway right now. The numbers really are from 23:38 GMT +2 this time, there were no more Worldmeters updates before midnight.

The mortality rate (number of total deaths / number of total confirmed COVID-19 cases) remained stabile, rising only slightly over yesterday, at 6.89% (It was 6.87% yesterday at EOD). That is an enormously high death rate, which has moved incrementally from 3.41% when I began tracking the numbers on 02/27 to now over 6%. That is a +3.5% jump in the death rate in 7 weeks time and also the eighth day in a row where we have seen a 6% mortality rate.

The Excel-Table:



We saw +79,221 new cases today, as compared to yesterday over the day before (+88,389). That is considerably less cases than yesterday and the fourth day in a row that the number of daily cases swung wildly back and forth + or - to each other. The growth rate was 3.41%. Yesterday, the growth rate was 3.95%.

In terms of deaths: 165,641 total, +5,894 today over yesterday, making for a 3.69% growth rate (yesterday: 3.85%). That is considerably less daily deaths today than yesterday, and yesterday was considerably less deaths than the day before. Wait and see if it is a sign of improvement or an outlier. And of course, the death rate, as already noted above, was: 6.89%.

The % of recovered people rose slightly from 25.62% yesterday to 25.62% at EOD today. The recovery percentage continues to rise incrementally. This tells me that more and more cases are being resolved. But since the death rate is also rising, the cases are being resolved in one of two ways, which we already know will happen, but the intensity of this phase of the pandemic, namely, resolution, after having reached a low point twice, is climbing again.

And per country, most of the countries, first per total cases, (1,000 cases or above):





There are now 79 nations in the "thousand club, with Cuba having crossed over the 1,000 mark . Of those 79, 24 are now in the "10,000 club" (Chile joined the 10,000 club this morning) and 6 of them are at 100,000 or more (USA, Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the UK).

Russia has jumped from 37,000 to 42,900 cases- a huge daily jump, but the actual number of cases there may be considerably higher.

Turkey has jumped from 82,300 to 86,300 cases and jumped over China. This coming Friday at the latest, Turkey will go over the 100,000 line.

India, which joined the 10,000 club Monday, has jumped from 16,400 to 17,600, whereas Pakistan is at 8,300. Both countries are very obviously lying about their COVID-19 problem, and brazenly, at that.

Japan reported very sparse numbers. Wait and see what the next days bring.

Brasil has jumped from 36,600 to 37,400 cases. Brasil is the only South American country to see this mega-explosion in the numbers, which is in and of itself a horror story, as Brasil is in the Southern Hemisphere, which means they are currently in their fall, going into Winter - there should under normal circumstances not be any cases there yet. And yet, there are.

A number of countries under the 10,000 mark are starting to report considerably more daily cases and so I am pretty sure that the number of countries at and above 10,000 is about to grow quite a bit this coming week.

Afghanistan, Bulgaria and Tunisia are up next to cross the 1,000 line in the next days.

And here, first per new deaths today, in descending numerical order, then in total deaths and then in total new cases, also descending.





The USA had the most deaths today: 1,464. That is considerably fewer deaths than two days ago. Nonetheless, 1,464 is still a horrifying number, let's not kid ourselves. Yesterday, it was 1,690. Suddenly, at the end of the day, Spain reported 1,195 deaths, horrifying. The UK had 596.

To put this into perspective:

1.) the current number of confirmed COVID-19 cases = slightly more than the population of Houston, TX (USA) and slightly less than the population of Brisbane (Australia).

2.) The current number of deaths = very close the population of Alexandria, VA (USA) or the population of Osnabrück (Germany).

3.) The current number of recovered = slightly under the population of Louisville, KA (USA) or slightly over the population of Vladivostok (Russia). This is how big these numbers have become.

With the crazy fluctuations of the last 4 days, either in number of new cases or number of daily deaths, no one can say with any credibility what the "curve" is doing, or not. Wait and see. But the curve appears to be, when you look at the long-run, logistical and no longer exponential. The largest cause for concern is the continual uptick in the death rate. The positive sign is the current reduction of daily deaths.

-Stat

 

It is a huge problem in the border towns, around the Res, outcasts, homeless, who still have connections to their Family in the Res.
I posted an article from the Navajo Times, concerning Gallup NM, a border town, were the virus has spread into those groups.
They had to close detox centers and homeless shelters and unable to track down a lot of those folks.
Quiet a few might have hitched a ride back into the Res.
As I mentioned in this thread, if it hits the homeless and drunk in my town, it will be a wipe out.
They are vanishing, before the virus they were every were.
Have not seen so few for years.

 

I still do not understand, France and UK testing figures.
What is going on there.
400K tests !
Are they not updating those figures ?

 

Nope, nor my sense of taste, I really think it's the move, combined with allergy season naturally starting up, For asthmatics, this is an especially tricky bug because it mimicks our attacks("shortness of breath") and therefore it's hard to tell, but as long as there's no fever and/or other underlying symptoms, I think it's safe to continue treating myself with my asthmatic medications.

 

"Drive between" being the operative words. That's why all non-essential travel should be stopped. Or all travel, period.

 

Density alone won't do it. Behaviour is a very big factor.

 

Behaviour - exactly.

There are very dense Asian cities where there is nowhere near as much infection as in NYC.

 

They are testing the Navajo Nation more than people in any state except for New York and Loiusiana.

https://news.yahoo.com/navajo-nation-trails-only-york-153200942.html

 

The same thing happened in Sydney, Australia. Bombarded by infected cruise ship and airline passengers before borders closed. The same thing happened in Bangkok. And Singapore. And other tourist destinations very popular with Europeans, Chinese, and Americans.

 

Ricciardi needs resign:


Former Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini Calls for Top WHO Official’s Resignation After Violent Threats on Trump

Professor Ricciardi retweeted a Michael Moore tweet that showed numerous individuals violently attacking a life-size model of Donald Trump. (The tweet has since been taken down but, screengrab – https://twitter.com/WRicciardi/status/1251675065592221696?s=20)

“He (Ricciardi) is insulting President Trump. Italian Government must dismiss him and apologize to the USA, which is helping Italy with millions of euros”.​

Dr. Ricciardi should never be on any Committee of the WHO and certainly should not be a member of the National Board of Medical Examiners of the United States of America.

He should resign or be removed immediately for his retweet of the violent tweet from Michael Moore.

 

.

 

Asymptomatic carriers are almost always going to be young and healthy. Exactly the people who think they don't need to self-isolate as much as older people. They're incredibly dangerous.

 

And how long should we live under the Stasi orders? Humans are not cattle, asymptomatic or not.

 

Right. And New York City has had the highest percentage of people staying at home behavior-wise compared to any other place in the U.S.

So, density.

 

Nothing like what has happened in the NYC metro area has occurred anywhere else.

 

Last night I noticed a comment on a YT video from someone whose husband died from COVID this week. She looked around 50 (and had taken her pic 'catfish style' so know telling her real size). As someone involved in healthcare, I'm always curious about this stuff .. so checked out her YT channel to see if there wasn't a clue there somewhere. Footage of multiple family gatherings showed a family of overweight, incredibly unfit looking people, eating insanely unhealthy food and drinking soda and/or beer. They barely moved .. just slumped in chairs and ate. If someone did get up, it was in slow motion and involved labour. Watching them walk across a room told you they're unaccustomed to even modest movement.

The point about saying all of that is that too many people don't grasp that 'general' poor health - as in this case - is deadly. If your lifestyle doesn't kill you, some opportunistic parasite will.

 

Yes, that's my point. Many cities started with the same factors (being international shipping and airline ports), and the same onslaught of infected people. The difference was in how quickly and how thoroughly they responded.

 

Are they? I heard the subway was still open. And that groups of up to ten are allowed. And that people are exercising in parks, and on the streets. And that people are still shopping weekly (or more). And that people living in the hardest hit areas have been considerably more 'relaxed' about social distancing. I'm getting this info from an American scientist friend, FTR. He has property in NY.

The point is that it's not density alone. Very dense cities in other countries are nowhere near as bad.

 

Nitpick? You are the one with the absurd illustrations that paints us as Trust Fund Drug dealers and China as our hapless victim. I simply pointed out that your claims are ridiculous.

We are going to re-evaluate our relationship with China since they loosed a pandemic on the world, which could have been avoided had they told the truth rather than lied, covered up, silenced whistle-blowers and disappeared scientists.

We have clarity now on just how dependent we have become on an autocratic and aggressively mercantilist regime. Western supply chains are hopelessly reliant on China, especially for critical national security goods, such as pharmaceuticals. ‘Never again should we have to depend on the rest of the world for our central medicines and countermeasures,’ said White House director of trade Peter Navarro. The Trump administration has been criticized and praised for its tougher approach towards Beijing. Too bad the 16 years under Dumb and Dumber elapsed before we finally elected someone with a brain.

20 years ago China was admitted into the rule-based international system of civilized nations. Though China never had played by international rules we believed they would.

‘By this agreement, we will also export more of one of our most cherished values, economic freedom,’ promised Clinton. ‘Bringing China into the WTO and normalizing trade will strengthen those who fight for the environment, for labor standards, for human rights, for the rule of law.’​

Well, that's proven to be quite a pile of crap.

Current Toll so far today:

82,000 new cases so far, globally, with 4,900 dying of this disease today.​

US new cases so far today: 25k with 1500 new dead.

 

I guarantee it's about political correctness. A very very bad decision, to opt for protecting feelings instead of lives.

In short: Yes, there's a very significant link between obesity (and it takes much less excess weight than most people realise, to be classified as medically obese) and COVID mortality. And there's a significant link between COVID mortality and 'cultural behaviours'. That ethnicity link isn't genetic, it's behavioural. We have the same issues here with certain groups, to their own cost.

 

China is not today a third world country.

They did.

Exports to this country are less than 4% of their GDP.

China was in the TPP crosshairs until the stupido in the White House decided to go it alone.

Do you think now is the propitious time to work over the WHO? Seems the timing is more about the Orange Oaf deflecting blame for the COVID-19 mess he created in this country.

We could have gone the way of Canada...

Trump is a cautionary tale about what happens when you elect someone incompetent and then you experience a crisis.