Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Yes, the original error is mine.

It is so damn difficult to pick-off those numbers from a web-page and reprint them, that to align them becomes devilish. I got the alignment right finally but miscalculated the addition.

Mea colpa, mea colpa, mea maxima colpa ... !

 

Agreed that the more isolated one is the lower the risk however in rural America it is far more likely that seniors share accommodation when younger people than is the case in urban areas. This sharing is the factor is what increases the risk since the younger people are more likely to be engaged in activities involving others.

Something else to consider is that in France the lockdown was significantly stricter and better enforced than here in the states. That never happened here to the same degree and that is why there are so many rural cases to be found.



https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/

 

That’s ok, you’re pretty good most of the time.

 

HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before.

During the run of the day on 2020-05-028, there was one intermittent analysis of size:
USA EOD report for 2020-05-027, posted 2020-05-028, 13:55 GMT +2, #9518.

NOTE: as of 2020-02-027, I only provide one set of screenshots from WORLDOMETER, for the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, in descending order. In order to confirm my quick analysis or to sort the date as you wish, use the following links to work the table on your own:

- the WORLDOMETER website for today, or
- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future.

In order to to that, search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. BTW, as of 2020-05-028, WORLDOMETER has added a "2 days ago" function to the right of the "yesterday" function, for comfort's sake.

​

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Thursday, 2020-05-028 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

*****5,900,907*****
+116,304 cases today over yesterday.
There are 113 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.
There are now 361,549 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
1,223 Americans, 1,067 Brazilians & 463 Mexicans died from COVID-19 on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Of course, you can see the percentages and growth rates for yourselves. 2020-05-028 was record-setting in two ways:

-the most new confirmed daily C19 cases to-date
-not only did the world go past 5.9 million C-19 infection, it went want 5.9 million infected.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +1,000 C19 cases and above):​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 113 nations in the "thousand club, with Nepal and Costa Rica having crossed over the 1,000 line on 2020-05-028. Of those 113, 50 are now in the "10,000 club, with Bahrain having crossed over the 10,000 line on 2020-05-028. Further, 12 of those 50 are at 100,000 or more. Brazil went over the 400,000-mark on 2020-05-027 and is already at 438,000 as of this analysis. Very soon, Brazil will blow past the half-million mark in C19 cases.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases: for the second day in a row, Brazil lead with the most new cases with the USA at rank 2. Russia, India, Peru, Chile and Mexico took rankings 3-7 in daily C19 cases.

63 countries had +100 or more new cases, closing in on 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 62. Of those 63, a record-breaking 19 countries had +1000 or more new cases; the day before, it was 16. And Canada was just under the +1,000 line.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending, there are SEVENTY nations with 100 total deaths or more, with Armenia having crossed over the 100-line on 2020-05-028. That is 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. Of those 70, TWENTY-SIX nations have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths, the USA (+1,223) led, then Brasil at rank 2 (+1,067) and Mexico at rank 3 (+463); a huge amount of the dying across the world on 2020-05-027 happened in the Americas.

8 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 9 the day before). 5 of those 9 countries are from the Americas.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 12 nations have administered more than 1 million tests apiece. The USA has now performed 16.3 million tests, while Russia has performed 9.7 million tests. Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections, has performed only 872,000 tests. Just imagine how many more positives Brazil would now be showing were it to test on the scale of the USA or Russia.... and btw, Peru has performed more C19 tests than Brazil.

Facit: on 2020-05-028 world came over both the 5.8 AND 5.9 million mark. We just went over the 5 million mark 9 days ago.

Now at +103,330 deaths, the USA has surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. John Hopkins University caught up with WORLDOMETER on 2020-05-027 and confirmed what WORLDOMETER already recorded on 2020-05-026: that my homeland went over the 100,000 death-mark. In the USA analysis, I had done a month long extrapolation, from 2020-04-028 until 2020-05-026; said extrapolation worked out exactly as predicted. At the USA analysis for 2020-05-026 (link at the top of this analysis), I started a new extrapolation....

The world-wide curve has most definitely flattened, which was the primary goal of mitigation. The very low growth rate in total cases is a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

And now the COVID-19 USA numbers for Thursday, 2020-05-028 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Thursday, 2020-05-028 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

*1,768,461*
+22,658 cases today over the day before.
103,330 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA.
1,223 Americans out of the total above died from COVID-19 on this day.
498,725 people have recovered, 1,166,406 are, however, still sick.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Note: as of now, in order to make this analysis more concise, I will only provide one set of screenshots from WORLDOMETER, for the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, in descending order. In order to confirm my quick analysis, please go directly to the WORLDOMETER website today or to the WAYBACK MACHINE after today. If you use the wayback machine after today, search for one day later than the date you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. This way, you have more control over what you want to see and when you want to see it.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total confirmed cases, descending:
​

Total confirmed C-19 cases:​

45 out of 50 states have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. VT (974) is next up. 30 of those 45 plus Veterans affairs (13,657) now have more than 10,000 cases, so actually, it's 31, and Veterans Affairs is really rank 29. Also, the number of infected military personnel is moving toward the 10,000 mark. At 9,450, 9,187 and 9,171, respectively, KS, KY and DE will be crossing over the 10,000 line shortly.

The state of NY (currently: 376,309) alone had more COVID-19 cases than any other nation in the world except the USA itself, of which NY is of course a part, until 2020-05-025. On that day, Brazil changed the course of C19 history and Brazil (currently: 438,812) surpassed NY's numbers on that day. And on 2020-05-028, Russia (currently: 379,051) also surpassed NY's C19 numbers.

New daily cases:​

7 states reported over +1,000 new cases on 2020-05-028: CA, TX, NY, IL, NJ, MD and VA. The day before, it was 4 states.

35 states reported more than +100 new cases; the day before, it was 35, plus DC.

0 states reported no new cases.

New daily deaths:​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

3 states reported more than 100 daily deaths. The day before, it was 5. Those 3 states: IL (+103), PA (+103) and NY (+100). Those 306 deaths represent 25.1% of all daily deaths (+1,223) in the USA on that day. Again, notice that NY was not at the top of the list. And slowly but surely, more and more cases and deaths are coming from CA.

44 of 50 states reported at least one death. The day before, it was 43.

Total deaths:
​

40 states have more than 100 total deaths. That's 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that.

Of those 40, 18 states in the Union have a total of more than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths. At 977 deaths, MN will cross that line on 2020-05-029.

With 29,653 total deaths at current, the state of NY has more deaths to mourn than every other COUNTRY on the Earth save the USA itself, UK and Italy. However, at the rate that Brazil (currently: 26,764) is moving in the rankings, Brazil will soon have many, many more deaths to mourn than NY state. I suspect that this will happen within the next 3-4 days, maximum.

On 2020-05-028, we ended the day with 103,330 US deaths from COVID-19. Now, all that as raw numbers may not really be getting into peoples' heads quite yet, so here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 100,000-106,500:



As of 2020-05-028, this means that we lost the equivalent of ALL of Brandon, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (will start 2020-06-001):​

Let's assume that as of 2020-06-001, we are at 105,000 dead in the USA. Sure looks like that is going to easily happen, just as the extrapolation predicted. Actually, it looks like we will be closer to 106,000, maybe 107,000. Wait and see.

OK, what happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day, let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This is simple math: from June 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020, there are 214 days (7 months at 30 days plus four months with one extra day, the 31st: July, August, October, December). 214 * 700 = 149,800 + 105,000 = 254,800 US-American deaths by the end of 2020 if the average daily deaths is just one-half of what I extrapolated from April 28-May 31, 2020.

Our hope is that we come in far, far, far below 700 deaths per day, but as you can already see, on this day, 2020-05-027, we were at +1,535 deaths and the peak for the weeks has probably not yet been reached. So, halving the former extrapolation is probably pretty reasonable, at least for now. I am not going to be following this extrapolation every day, but rather, I will officially start it on June 1st and will refer back to it at the end of each month.

In the worldwide report for this same date (2020-05-027), I did a flashback to my start-date for collecting this data, which was 2020-02-027, numerically, exactly 3 months ago. In the report, I posted some screenshots from back then, but just to see how far the USA has come since that date, here a quote:

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, starting June 1, 2020, to happen.


-Stat

 

BTW, this number just happened in the USA:

 

Today, Germany, a country with 84 million people, has reported only +120 new C19 cases and only +4 new C19 deaths. The total deaths in Germany (8,574) to-date is still not a good percentage: death rate = 4.70%, but is is significantly better than the death rate in the USA (5.84%).

If Germany stays as such a small number of daily deaths while re-opening the country and the economy throughout May and June, then I would say that the methodology is working there.

 

****, I recorded the numbers for each of the countries and was so bogged down in the individual counts that I didn't even notice the total.

And two days ago was the 4th highest single day case count, with the 2nd and 3rd highest happening just last week.

The death numbers are still decreasing and one can only hope that the next spike that occurs on that front (and I have no doubt that another death spike will happen) will not beat the previous single day records due to a better understanding of the virus and treatments that work.

 

RE: Worldwide C19 analysis

WORLDOMETER also provides individual data-tables for each continent. I thought it might be a good thing to take a look at them. Here the 1st screenshot for each continent, in descending order of total C19 cases:













I'm not saying that any C19 analyses must be ordered in this way, but maybe it is interesting to see exactly how the disease is spreading per continent.

Also interesting is that Russia is officially classified as part of Europe, when, geographically speaking, the vast majority of the landmass of Russia is actually within Asia.

-Stat

 

I beg to differ. The sparse populations in farming states keeps people apart, not together.

It is the fact that people in cities take metros, shop-till-they-drop without masks, and gather together in bars that the rate is so high there.

The lifestyles are so very different between the two "cases" and the Covid-death numbers readily show why.

IMHO ...

 

I'm not so sure about that. By my count, using EOD GMT +0, we have had 6 days with over +100,000 new cases and I believe that number 2 was on April 24th, 2020:




We may soon be saying days with only at least +125,000 per day....

Nice to hear from you!

 

I was perusing the US data and it occurred to me that perhaps there is another way to look at it to determine where the virus is most active. So I loaded the Worldometers table into Excel and just divided the new cases by the existing cases as a percentage and then sorted it in descending order.

Arkansas 3,99%
North Carolina 3,21%
Alaska 3,06%
Wisconsin 3,02%
Alabama 3,01%
Arizona 2,82%
Virginia 2,78%
Texas 2,75%
Maryland 2,59%
Puerto Rico 2,55%
Utah 2,41%
Maine 2,38%
Mississippi 2,28%
New Hampshire 2,28%
California 2,16%
Nebraska 2,15%
Minnesota 2,10%
Navajo Nation 2,06%
Indiana 1,91%
West Virginia 1,86%

Where are the usual suspects like NY, NJ, IL, PA, etc, etc?

Instead the top 5 were Arkansas, North Carolina, Alaska, Wisconsin and Alabama with new cases growing by 3+ percent.

Even the Navajo Nation is only at 2% and we already know that is a hotspot so is there something happening here that needs further investigation?

https://katv.com/news/local/arkansas-sees-largest-single-day-jump-in-community-covid-19-cases

Anyone else remember this from 10 days ago?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/cdc...ch-raising-alarm-on-religious-gatherings.html

Anyone want to hazard a guess where you might find Greer's Ferry in Arkansas?

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article243051066.html

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article242991371.html

So 3 weeks ago NC decided to reopen their economy and now there is a sharp spike in new cases well ahead of what was predicted.

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/202...d-19-across-alaska-the-biggest-jump-in-weeks/

Three for three so far!

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...-number-new-coronavirus-cases-deaths-n1216471

https://madison365.com/two-weeks-af...-record-for-new-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths/

The pattern is now clearly evident.

https://www.al.com/news/2020/05/alabama-coronavirus-cases-surge-to-new-high-as-state-reopens.html

Pretty much clinches it!

Five out of five states all having 3+ percent INCREASES in new cases from completely different parts of the nation.

 

"Underdecks" series, #1.​

In this series, I take one country from exactly 2 months ago, one that was very low on the totem pole, to see what has happened since then.

Today: Colombia (S. America)
Time frame: 2020-05-028 compared to 2020-03-028.

So, here the stats for Colombia on 2020-05-028:



And now, the stats for Colombia, 2020-03-028:



So, Columbia has gone from 608 C19 cases and 6 deaths on 2020-03-028 to 25,366 C19 cases and 822 deaths as of yesterday, 2020-05-028.
In terms of cases, that's a 41.7-fold increase in 61 days time. In terms of deaths, that's a 137-fold increase in the same time frame.

On 2020-03-028, Columbia added +69 new C19 cases. On 2020-05-028 added +1,262. That's an 18.3-fold increase in the number of daily new C19 cases.

The population of Columbia (50.8 million) is just slightly more than the populations of the US-states of California and Georgia combined.

-Stat

PS. Others can feel free to contribute. Find a country that was low on the totem pole 2 months ago and compare it to now, as I did with Colombia. Feel free to use the screenshotted data I provided in these daily analyses. Could be a nice contribution to PF.

 

The data that I just posted in #9587 below supports what I posted earlier.

 

Good work, Deri.

This is similar what I log with the worldwide and national numbers for the C19 daily cases, under the rubrik of "growth rate", but it is not the same.
It is,however, another very good way to look at this.

 

I must now punish you.

Do you prefer hard whips or just whipped-cream??

 

Yup, it was by looking at your data that I got the idea to do that research.

 

I have my fingers crossed that it doesn't get much worse.

 

Be vigilant. Altitude doesn't kill the virus.

 

Pure greed.

 

"Underdecks" series, #2: INDIA​

In this series, I take one country from exactly 2 months ago, one that was very low on the totem pole, to see what has happened since then. I am going to do this when the spirit moves me, with no specific plan in mind.

About 4 hours ago today, I already reported on Colombia.

2nd example today: India (Asia)

Time frame: 2020-05-028 compared to 2020-03-028.

So, here the stats for India on 2020-05-028:



And now, the stats for India, 2020-03-028:



So, India has gone from 987 C19 cases and 24 deaths on 2020-03-028 to 165,386 C19 cases and 4,711 deaths as of yesterday, 2020-05-028.
In terms of cases, that's a 167.6-fold increase in 61 days time. In terms of deaths, that's a 196-fold increase in the same time frame.

On 2020-03-028, India added +100 new C19 cases. On 2020-05-028, it added +7,300. That's an 73-fold increase in the number of daily new C19 cases.

On 2020-03-028, India was rank 41 in the total C19 cases rankings. On 2020-05-028, India moved from rank 10, behind Turkey, to rank 9, ahead of Turkey.

Whereas India grew +7,300 C-19 daily cases on 2020-05-028, it grew +8,072 today (2020-05-029) and now has become a power-player in terms of C19 infections.

The population of India (1.38 BILLION) is just slightly under the population of China. India is the world's largest Democracy.

-Stat

PS. Others can feel free to contribute. Find a country that was low on the totem pole 2 months ago and compare it to now, as I did with Colombia. Feel free to use the screenshotted data I provided in these daily analyses. Could be a nice contribution to PF.[/QUOTE]

 

USA Update 001, 2020-05-029:

with 3 hours left in my day, 5 hours left in the day for WORLDOMETER and 9 hours left in the day on the East Coast of the USA, at 15:14 EDT, about 10 minutes ago now, the USA went over 104,000 deaths (remember, on Tuesday, we just went over the 100,000-line):



In the excel-table:



With +14,275 new C-19 cases today, what's still out to be reported? Look:





As of right now, 16 states have reported nothing yet, 1 state has reported deaths but no new cases and 7 states have reported cases but no new deaths - yet. Because usually, by the end of the day, these things change again. It looks very much as if the USA will at least hit +1,000 deaths, in line with the two Fridays before.

 

Well, the 5-million mark was fun and all of that and gee-whiz, just about 7 hours ago I reported that the world went over 5.9 million cases yesterday and over those few hours we are now less than 12,000 from the 6 million mark.... so, yeah, I think we are going to crack the 6-million COVID-19 infection mark today.



And the excel-table:



A second update will follow....

 

Small Russia update, 2020-05-029:

it should be noted that up until now, 7 nations have reported more than +100 daily C19 deaths, Canada among them:



Don't concentrate yourselves too much on the American or Brazilian numbers, they are most definitely going to move up in the next hours. But Russia publishes C19 figures only once a day, and with +232 new C19 deaths, Russia just suffered its worst day thus far:



Also, Russia went over 200,000 C19 cases between 2020-05-009 and 2020-05-010. Now with almost 387,623 cases, assuming only +8,000 cases per day, then Russia will go over the 400,000 mark on Sunday, 2020-05-031, which means that the doubling between 200,000 and 400,000, in Russia's case, will have taken 21 days.

-Stat

 

Density has a huge impact on frequency, duration, and even nature of contacts with other people. We live in a suburb on quarter acre and half acre lots with single-family homes. It's easy to keep our distance and still be in contact. Think of all the people you run across in condominium, and each of them runs across.