Why are Trump's approval numbers up?

How exactly is Nate Silver affiliated with Pelosi?

 

But the over all average range still increased which is the point.

 

If you don't know what random means there is no way forward.
Maybe you can find work at Rasmussen.

 

When you look at all the polls, rather than the cherry picked ones, they haven't moved at all.

 

And sometimes 29% actually happens. With the polls the way they are, it didn't seem likely that Trump was going to win, but there was a chance, and that chance happened. Also, its harder to predict the future than the measure current sentiment. Its pretty hard to predict an election where the popular vote winner loses the electoral college. At some point you have to give them a break.

They were right about 2016, but were wrong about 2018. Its a mixed record, just like other pollsters.

Actually everyone else got 2018 correct. Everyone else predicted that the democrats would take the house, and the Republicans would expand their control of the Senate a bit. That happened.

The kind of people who are dumb enough to be swayed by a poll, aren't the types who read polls. Also, if you make polls that are often embarrassingly wrong, then eventually nobody is going to trust your polls and your reputation will be ruined. You are better off injecting your opinion in the news to sway opinion than making polls that can be easily proven wrong.

Examples of this? And evidence this was done intentionally?

 

The only thing that has moved are independents in battle ground states and your losing them because Dems haven't made a case for anything other than there own massive over reach

 

That's right, I can. I CAN find work at Rasmussen (or any other pollster) because I have the mathematical background which qualifies me to get any form of data science or statistical forecasting role there.

You, on the other hand, not so much. You'd be lucky if anyone offered you a secretary or admin assistant role.

 

You sure haven't shown it here.

I don't brag about my background, but I can almost guarantee you I made more money with statistics than you ever will.

 

Except for all those instances when you were educated; especially here when you confused the Margin of Error for the Confidence Interval. That is the type of mistake someone would make if they were learning for the first time.

Sorry, but the likelihood of you earning more than me using statistics is low. Your knowledge is just too poor. Even if you had a rudimentary understanding of the subject matter, my employer is one of the largest Investment Banks in the country. I've dealt with more zeros than you can physically count. I wouldn't try to guarantee anything if I were you. You'll be up way past your bedtime.

 

Banks don't pay well do they?
A lot more money in successful start ups.

What is a Margin of Error?
The margin of error is the range of values below and above the sample statistic in a confidence interval. The confidence interval is a way to show what the uncertainty is with a certain statistic (i.e. from a poll or survey). For example, a poll might state that there is a 98% confidence interval of 4.88 and 5.26. That means if the poll is repeated using the same techniques, 98% of the time the true population parameter (parameter vs. statistic) will fall within the interval estimates (i.e. 4.88 and 5.26) 98% of the time.

https://www.statisticshowto.datasci...tatistics/hypothesis-testing/margin-of-error/

 

I'm one of those independents. The vast majority of independents can't stand Trump. But if they democrats elect someone who is too far left, they just aren't going to vote.

 

Not with your skills.

And how many start ups are successful?

The time to look up this information was BEFORE making a fool of yourself.

 

Both of my start ups were successful, so I'm happy.
And the link says the same thing my first post said. So I guess I'll accept your apology.

 

Nope. You said:

And the link Says this:

Not even remotely similar. But hey, at least you tried...