Will trade war with China escalate into military conflict?

Did some binge watching of Ted Talks this morning and came across two interesting talks on China:

https://www.ted.com/talks/kevin_rudd_are_china_and_the_us_doomed_to_conflict

https://www.ted.com/talks/graham_allison_is_war_between_china_and_the_us_inevitable?language=en

The premise of both talks is the trap of Thucydides, or, in other words, the propensity if two nations to go to war when one nation challenges the status of the other one as top dog. In the past, 11 out of 15 times war was the result when this happened. Clearly, China is challenging the status quo, with respect to economic power (it will surpass the GDP of the US probably within less than two decades), as well as military power, as evident in the challenge of US forces in the South China Sea.

Putting this in perspective with the Trump trade war:
Is Trump a visionary who anticipates this (in his mind) un-avoidable conflict, pre-empting it with trade war before actual confrontation? This would be a reasonable interpretation, because in Trump's world view, there can only be one winner. Therefore, China has to be put down before it wins too much.

However, nobody ever talks about this from the Chinese viewpoint. The Chinese feel that they have been constrained by the West for decades, who they think feels superior to the Chinese. They will not just submit to Trump's economic pressure, much like many of the previous ursurpers of the status quo have not submitted to the attempts of the top dog to keep them down.

The question is, how will this all end, peaceful or not? History tells us that the peaceful solution is statistically unlikely. What will be very important is to have cool heads on both sides in leadership position. Who is the cool headed one, Trump or Jinping? Take your guess.

 

Giving this one more try with another interesting link:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/

"In April, chocolate cake had just been served at the Mar-a-Lago summit when President Donald Trump leaned over to tell Chinese President Xi Jinping that American missiles had been launched at Syrian air bases, according to Trump’s account of the evening. What the attack on Syria signaled about Trump’s readiness to attack North Korea was left to Xi’s imagination."

Again, the premise is that the trade war is just the opening salvo in a greater confrontation that is looming, which is not caused by unfair trade, but rather by the challenge by China of the US's status as the number one dominant global superpower.

I think there is probably validity to this premise. Would we care if Vietnam was less than honest with the handling of US intellectual property? Probably not, because Vietnam is not a threat on the economic and global level.

Now, Trump's instinct seems to tell him that China needs to be put in its place. However, where he goes wrong is thinking that he can do it by throwing around the US economic and even military weight. My view is that, especially in this age, it would be important to strengthen traditional US alliances, like the ones with NATO and European countries. Instead, Trump weakens NATO and alienates these allies. One thing is for sure, in this upcoming challenge, the US can't do it alone, it needs EVERY ally it can find.

 

i) China has a choice, quit stealing our technology and engaging in industrial espionage or pay more tariffs. For now, they prefer paying more tariffs.

ii) China will not surpass our US GDP in two decades, they have yet to develop their own customer base. Their amazing growth of the last few decades has been based on unequal access to OUR consumer base, which we have control over. What kind of an idiot President would we have to have, to give them unequal access to our Consumer Base so they can building a military that is superior to ours? Oh, I know the answer to that one; Clinton, Dumb and Dumber. Well, now we have Trump and thrown a monkey wrench into their plans for domination.

iii) Trump does not think "there can only be one winner" our goal is the "Win/Win"

iv) It's China with the hot-headed rhetoric.

‘We’ll see how frightened America is’ — Chinese admiral says sinking US carriers key to dominating South China Sea



Another Beijing official has sounded off about the communist nation’s perceived dominance of the South China Sea region, this time coming as an alarming threat of inflicting mass casualties on the U.S. Navy.

During a Dec. 20 speech to the 2018 Military Industry List summit, China’s Rear Adm. Luo Yuan, the deputy head of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, added fuel to the South China Sea fire when he stated the key for Chinese domination in those hotly contested waters could lie in the sinking of two U.S. aircraft carriers, according to a report by Australia’s news.com.

"What the United States fears the most is taking casualties,” the admiral said, before adding that such an attack on two of the U.S. Navy’s steel behemoths would claim upwards of 10,000 lives.

Luo went on to call America’s military, money, talent, voting system and fear of adversaries the five U.S. weaknesses that can be easily exploited, according to the report.

"We’ll see how frightened America is,” he said.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your...s-carriers-key-to-dominating-south-china-sea/

This fkn moron is exhibiting the thinking of the Japanese that led them to attack Pearl Harbor leading to the complete destruction of the Japanese Empire at the hands of the Americans who would accept nothing less than the Unconditional Surrender of the Emperor.

No one in the US Military high command is making anything that even approaches this kind of War Talk.

The thing that misleads these clowns is our apparent division, the way we argue and divide during times of peace, but should an external threat manifest itself? That disappears in an instant and we fight as one. They try something like that and the folks that ordered it are going to have as their last sight, US missiles coming through their bedroom windows.

So, here's the end game, it's not melodramatic. Trump is helping Xi find his price point on the way to a verifiable agreement for the Chinese to knock off all the theft and espionage they have been conducting against this nation, with impunity.

Trump has hit essentially all of China's exports to us, with tariffs.
Xi has effectively hit all of our exports to China, with tariffs.

China has brought three complaints to the WTO - We will see how they rule.

I think China will come to reason, or they will keep paying the tariffs. Election Day 2020 is only 14 months away, they may figure that there is no need to agree to an enforcible agreement to end their theft and espionage when a Democrat might take over and allow their to resume their theft without consequence like the last three Clinton, Dumb and Dumber did.

 

NATO and most European nations are in no way obligated to help the U.S. fight the Chinese. Only the British would probably be interested for obvious historical reasons and they can't do much.

Japan and Australia are much more important.

 

Congress won't support declaring war on China unless there is a immitent military threat. And as much as I am sure Trump would love to send a bunch of soldiers to die in China, he has limited authority without Congressional consent.

 

Trump would do it to get re-elected .................

 

Who cares? Nations don't declare war anymore.

 

You have actual evidence to support this claim?

 

Anyone who cannot see the existential military threat China is creating is blind in one eye, can't or won't see out the other and damn eat up with TDS to care. The real question here is whether or not China can be weaned of it's current world view that dates back to good old fashion imperialism and the boxer rebellion.

 

The US is just as imperialistic as China. The difference is that China isn't stupid enough to get into a war with the US when their economy is built on selling to the US, thanks to the Republican supported outsourcing of US jobs by companies like Nike, Apple, and GM.

That, and the fact that China knows that the US has thousands of planes and ships stations within striking distance of most of their major cities.

 

Utter nonsense. China by their own admission wants to become world hegemon. If they gave a damn about human rights that might be marginally tolerable but they don't.

 

Did anyone actually listen to the Ted talks I have linked to? If you did, you would realize that I am not suggesting that Trump is going to start a military conflict with China, neither am I suggesting that such a conflict is imminent. What I am suggesting is that the current trade war is the opening salvo on a long process leading to actual war, based on historical statistics for similar situations, in which an up-and-coming power is challenging the status quo. Note, also, that I am giving Trump some credit here for, with instinct, identifying the problems with China that possibly lay ahead.

Second, keeping China down with tariffs won't work. Trying to suppress the rising nation has not worked in the past, it won't work in this case either. The Chinese have pride too. If you think of it, the Chinese have three times our population, so they are bound to become more powerful than us, when their living standard (and GDP per capita) approaches ours. Can we prevent this? I don't think so. However, we do have the choice of striving for peaceful coexistence or confrontation.

 

Wrong Article 5 says that if a member is attacked in Europe or North America that shall be considered an attack against them all.

See this!
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm

 

You do know genius that China and the surrounding area like the South China Sea are NOT in Europe or North America.

China has little ability to directly attack North America itself.

 

Before you act as a smartass and get all out derisive Mr. genius you do know that China is very interested in an Arctic passage for shipping. So genius we can get into a conflict in places other than the South China Sea and Alaska last time I checked was still attached to North America. Go check your map.

 

I know they are interested. But that doesn't change the fact that the Chinese do not have remotely like the projectable military power to pose a serious threat to the Arctic passages or Alaska.

They will have enough projectable military power to cause problems for the U.S. and its allies in the South China Sea and the Sea of Japan

 

NOt that it matters no European power currently has the force projection capability to do much more than stand on the sidelines at a distance and cheer.

 

That's not the purpose of the Tariffs. And we'd better hope it works other wise there will be a war.

 

I don't think the trade war will become a shooting war. But this story..............

Trump was so angry after China’s trade retaliation that he wanted to double tariffs
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/03/tru...a-trade-tariffs-after-latest-retaliation.html

.......is indicative of the fact Baby Donald has a lack of understanding about who he is dealing with. The Chinese are about saving face. How could he possibly be so naive and uninformed as to think Xi was not going to retaliate? Oh yeah, he doesn't listen to intel briefings and has surrounded himself with idiots and sycophants.

 

That is pure nonsense. The draft dodger doesn't have the balls to engage in a war with Ethiopia, let alone a nuclear power like China. War between super powers has been made obsolete. The whole world loses.

What is far more likely is that Trump's trade war, which is between the two largest economies in the world, will cause a global recession. In some parts of the world, like the EU, it has already started.

We can only hope that our economy holds out until Trump is fired by the American voter.

 

Hey give the F -Fers time and they may someday and maybe sooner than think.

 

Which is why he should NEVER have pulled out of the TPP

 

This is a good question. One that I have pondered myself. I can only say I hope not.

 

You ARE joking aren’t you?

https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=china

 

You do know what "projectable" military power is? Don't you?