Working Out: The meaning of falling inflation

Wheat futures:

Cost of doing business:



"I’ll get to the implications for economic policy in just a bit. But give me a minute to savor the political implications.

Republican efforts to regain control of Congress have rested almost entirely on blaming Joe Biden for inflation — and gas prices in particular.

Did Donald Trump, who is still the dominant figure in the G.O.P., attempt to overturn a legitimate election? Gas is over $5 a gallon! Are Republican judges and state legislators taking away rights women have had for decades? Gas is $5 a gallon!

So why is inflation coming down? Biden administration policy — releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, urging gas stations to pass on declines in wholesale prices, efforts to unsnarl supply chains — may have contributed. But the main story is likely a global economic slowdown: America probably isn’t in a recession, but Europe probably is, China remains hobbled by its zero-Covid policy and so on.

In any case, for the moment, inflation is headed down, no doubt to the great dismay of politicians who were counting on gas prices to deliver a red wave in November. Pass the popcorn."
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/05/opinion/inflation-declining-gas-prices.html

The timing is a bit awkward, is it not..?

 

Nobody is buying it.
Gas is still $1.80 higher than when Biden took office,
Everyone knows we are in a recession no matter how much you try and deny it
Inflation is at historical highs
None of these new job reports represents black Americans as they have been abandoned
In fact everyone knows these job numbers are fake because they eliminated those who quit looking for jobs from their data
Everyone has witnesses the Soviet style kangaroo committee Democrat swoon over showing how Democrats would rule if in power
Our illegal border crossings are at historical highs

But you think midterms will turn around because todays news isn't as bad as yesterdays?
You should prepare yourself.

 

This is all the right wing pundits and politicians have to go on — with them going full fascist lately and having zero real plan to “fix” anything besides forcing women to have their rapists children and attacking the “gays” — if the economy starts to improve after being sabotaged by the prior administration manipulating oil markets and massive fed injections their hope of winning congress will be shattered.

Make note independents: they will sabotage the economy if they retake even one chamber. That is all they know how to do.

 

And just to add, they will drive up the budget deficit with alacrity.

 

Fake News - Biden's approval tanked when he turned Afghanistan over to terrorists and left them enough equipment to make them some of the best equipped terrorists in the world.

Democrat Sedition Against The US:

"Comey and the FBI never verified the Dossier. Comey — over the objections of CIA analysts — included allegations from the dossier in a US intelligence assessment of Russia’s influence over the 2016 election. Comey claimed that some of the dossier had already been corroborated and that it derived from a Russia-based source, when in fact Danchenko was a US resident at the time. By that point, the FBI had already conducted one interview with Danchenko — and he had begun to walk back some of the dossier’s claims. In other words, Comey presented the Steele dossier as credible information to Congress, just as lower-level agents were learning it was not to be trusted."

"Clinton’s agents fed the bureau enough thinly sourced dirt on Trump and Russia to cast doubts over his whole presidency. Two and a half years Mueller announced he had found no evidence of conspiracy between Russia and the Trump campaign. To this day, most Democrats still don’t believe that and ignore how that conspiracy theory was first whispered by their party’s own lawyers and operatives."

He is dumping a million gallons a day from the SPR, until the election, after which, he is happy to screw voters with higher prices.

And are we seeing broad based reductions in inflation?

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You seem to be trying to run a victory lap and the lastest numbers are the highest in 40 years, the highest of his presidency, and they are measured from June a year ago when Biden/Dems inflation was already spiking. Now we are up another 9% from there.

The average family is paying over $500/mo just to buy the same things they were buying before. And what are Dems doing with their last gasp of power before the voters take it from them? One more trip to the pig trough.

​

 

While the crazy is amusing, saying we're just as bad as the guys that tried to overthrow democracy and install a dictator, well... that's just nuts.

As I've said many times, as Krugman said in that article, the inflation is global. It's also not going away, so even if you get a lunatic for president, he's going to be able to do F*** all about inflation.

You appear to be talking about the current bill. It's a good bill, provide us with some good laughs, and get specific...

 

This thread will not age well. Anyone who thinks inflation is coming down is highly delusional and is in for a painful awakening next month lol

 

Speaking of nuts, you aren't making any sense.

 

gas prices coming down and deflation is in the air, the right not happy with that, they hoped it would last past the election

 

Right wind doing no such thing. The abortion issue is open for debate in all 50 states. Look at economic performance of the previous administration compared to this one that didn't have to deal with COVID and businesses being forced to shut down.

 

Didn’t trump push for massive QE and direct monetary injections even before C19?

 

Actually that was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Trump has no direct authority over the Fed.

 

The question was “Did trump push for it”?

 

You seem completely off your own topic.

I'm thinking about your claim that inflation is falling. Your claim made no sense because as of the latest CPI report, through the end of June, it was higher than ever. So either your claim is completely incoherent, and if your source is Paul Krugman, that's no surprise, or, you are future casting July's report that will be released on Wednesday. That would mean that you are trying to run a victory lap based on data that has not yet been released.

So, I took a look at how much prices have risen since Biden/Dems took over and prices are up 12.6% since Jan 2021.

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If your claim is true, and prices are now falling, where do you expect the overall price climb over the Biden/Dem era to be after we add in July numbers?

Will the overall Biden/Dem price hike be more or less than 12.6% after we include July numbers?

 

You think inflation isn't real? That it's been "cured"? That it isn't raising holy hell with budgets from workers to universities? Think again.

Penn State Orders Hiring Freeze, 3% Budget Rescission To Close $191 Million Deficit.

How in the HELL does a State University manage to work itself into a $191 MILLION dollar deficit in a 12 month budget? Holy Hell!

"Pennsylvania’s flagship public university has ordered a hiring freeze at least through next summer as it and other higher education institutions confront spiking inflation and public fallout over tuition hikes aimed at easing strain on campus budgets."

Might be a little early for the happy dance.

 

That's because you don't understand.

I was commenting about the timing, the politics of it.

As I already pointed out, this is an inflationary era, but Republicans hitched their dreams to the price of gas (and stuff) and the price of gas is going down. Ooops...

Over the long term, yeah, this is going to suck. It will be better with Dems, but there is no magic that will make the world's woes go away.

 

I understand perfectly.

And you failed to respond to the obvious fact that your claim rides on unreleased numbers. Further, you also passed on an opportunity to predict the unreleased numbers on which your attempt at a victory lap is based. Interesting.

We'll see when the numbers are released. As of the last release, prices were NOT going down, in fact, they were up 12.6% over the Biden era. What is your prediction post release, how much below the current 12.6% rise will they be?

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The key to inflation is increasing supply, the pain we are experiencing is wholly unnecessary.

EVEN BERNIE SANDERS ADMITS BIDEN’S ‘INFLATION REDUCTION’ PLAN IS A JOKE.

"Despite its name, the legislation won’t do anything to reduce inflation. Even Bernie is admitting it! Sanders dismissed it as the “so-called Inflation Reduction Act.”

“I say so-called, by the way, because according to the CBO and other economic organizations who have studied this bill, it will in fact have a minimal impact on inflation,” Sanders continued.

The bill does nothing to address increasing the supply of goods and services that are the keys to long time economic growth and rising wages and living standards. It seems like you think you can fool the people with these gimmicks and spin, and we'll find out if you are right in just 93 days.

 

Nobody understands perfectly, that is doubly true for economics...

Which tells me you are only really interested in the politics.

Looks like Bernie is getting ready to run again.. Oh well.. Since you have again missed the obvious, that bill is mostly about helping people deal with inflation.....

 

If you want to view your interest as laudatory and mine as profane, you are free to do so, but, I don't see what value that brings to the discussion, it strikes me more as a tap out.

You Know It's Bad When... Bernie Mocks Dems' "So-Called Inflation Reduction Act"



"I say so-called because according to the CBO and other economic organizations that have studied this bill, it will in fact have a minimal impact on inflation..."

Have you noticed that you aren't defending it, either?

“The American people are tired of press releases… they are hurting,” Sanders said. “And they are begging their elected officials to respond… [But] this legislation does not address any of their needs.”

Exactly. We need to make the changes we can, in 94 days. The GOP tends to be a massive disappointment, but clearly we need to make a change, and they are the other choice.

“There is no working family in America whose top priorities are doubling the size of the IRS and giving rich people money to buy $80,000 electric cars,” McConnell said in a separate statement on Twitter.

“Americans want Washington to address inflation, crime, and the border—not another reckless liberal taxing and spending spree.”

 

Bernie is running again... Like I said, this is global, and its going to be around for decades. Biden is trying to cushion the blow, but he isn't a miracle worker. Republicans would be even worse.

I did defend it, you didn't notice. You do that a lot, you know...

 

I just went through your posts here, I see an unsupported assertion that it's a "good bill." If you have more, bring it.

 

I already asked you to get *specific* about your problems with the bill...

 

I want DC to live within their means. Before this bill, they were tracking to have more than $4.8 TRILLION dollars to spend this year, and that's enough, but not for them. They want to spend more.

The Federal government has SPENT a total of $29,217.6B more than they have taken in, and that's enough. I don't want them to add more.

Reducing the Fed balance sheet bleeds of inflationary pressure. The balance sheet now stands at $8,874.6B. That's enough. When the government spends in excess of what it takes in, the Fed provides the money by adding to their balance sheet. We already added $5,000B in just the last 3 years, that's enough.

I want Congress to legislate that the President SHALL direct all incoming receipts, first to our debt obligations and social security checks, and allocate the remaining to congressionally appropriated spending.

Federal spending is now up over 84% over the last 10 years.

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GDP is up 45% over the same period.

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• Federal spending growing 87% faster than the economy isn't sustainable.
• Things that can't go forever, won't.

Surely you recognise that both these propositions are true. I've given you my solution, what's yours?

 

Tell that to George Washington...

There is no solution. There are, however, better ways to frame the problem.

 

There are solutions and my framing is flawless. We'll solve this, when we've had enough. We tolerate it because despite its obvious flaws, overall in works, but, when it is clear that it no longer works, we'll make very big changes and they could be quite rapid.