Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    I think with the new intel on Aerosals that might explain the situation. If in reality, airborne transmission is possible then it becomes easier to contract the virus. Some random person with the bug sneezes in the air, the viral bugs(unbeknowest to us) hang around in the air and then we inhale that air and boom.
     
  2. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Shockingly, we are/will be struggling to flatten a SECOND CURVE, and said indisputable fact is currently INCOMPARABLE.

    In addition, our experts have been warning about a second wave, thus, most likely, our Covid19 charts will end up looking like the HIGHEST and LONGEST roller coaster.
     
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  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    THIRTEEN MILLION CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES WORLDWIDE
    So, this happened four days ago, on 2020-07-008:

    [​IMG]


    So, this just happened today at 23:10 GMT +2 / 17:10 EDT.....

    2020-07-012 COVID-19 the world goes over 13 million cases.png

    Here the excel-table:

    2020-07-012 COVID-19 the world goes over 13 million cases - excel table.png

    So, in just a little more than 4 days, 6 hours and 23 minutes time, we sprang yet another 1 million cases, from 12 million to 13 million.

    Not only that, look at the four rows that are shaded in light-green and look at 2020-06-027, 15 days ago. On that day, a Saturday, at 20:11 GMT +2 / 14:11 EDT, the world went over 10 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and in doing so, entered the 7-digit zone. Now, 15 days, 3 hours and 1 minute later, we have jumped slightly more than 3 million cases. Folks, if we continue at this pace, that means 6 million new cases PER MONTH.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2020
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  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Up until now today, the USA has already added +52,826 new C19 cases and there are still 13 states plus the the eastern Territories, the US Military, the US Federal Prison system and the Navajo Nation to report in. Also, California and Texas revise their figures at least twice every day, so I am reasonably sure that we will easily go well over +60,000 cases in the USA when all is said and done today, perhaps even more than Saturday's caseload was - which would be a real paradigm shift, here....

    2020-07-012 COVID-19 USA update 001.png
    2020-07-012 COVID-19 USA update 002.png
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2020
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Soooo, PFers, gute Nacht! (good night).
     
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  6. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Don't you dare to go to sleep.

    It is very troubling what is happening in US.
    The WH and Bunker Boy have decided that the virus does not exist and there for no leadership.
    Opposite they are now attacking Faucy
     
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  7. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  8. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  9. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    What is the matter with the respective Govts in these states? Seriously .. it's as though they're on very strong drugs, or something. WHY are they just letting this happen? What is their end game?

    The entire world knows now that the only response to widespread community infection is complete lockdown for a month. Why isn't it happening?
     
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  10. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Because the US turned out right stupid
     
  11. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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  12. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I can track the states over time and I would be happy to write up a little more in depth of a posting about Tennessee once I get the time tomorrow or tuesday.
     
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  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER

    There were some important small analyses and updates on 2020-07-012 between the last worldwide analysis and this one:
    DISCLAIMER, posted 2020-07-012, 11:31 GMT +2, #11093.
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-07-011, posted 2020-07-012, 13:33 GMT +2, #11095.
    Quick IDAHO analysis, posted 2020-07-012, 15:36 GMT +2, #11096.
    Florida reports +15,300 new C19 cases, surpassing New York‘s worst day, posted 2020-07-012, 17:29 GMT +2 / 11:29 EDT.
    The world goes over 13 million confirmed C19 cases, posted 2020-07-012, 23:33 GMT +2, #11103.
    USA update, posted 2020-07-012, posted 23:57 GMT +2, #11104.


    COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Sunday, 2020-07-012 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    ֍*** 13,028,182 ***֍
    +194,722 new C19 cases over the day before, highest Sunday haul to-date.
    While other nations recede on a Sunday, INDIA does not: +29,108 new C19 cases, an Indian record.
    There are 139 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 71 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.

    There have now been 570,993 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +3,958 of them were on this day.
    Worldwide weekly average: +211,091 new C19 cases and +4,935 deaths per day.

    659 Brazilian, 539 Mexican, 500 Indian, 380 US-American & 184 Iranian deaths were recorded on this day.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000.png

    The last 20 days in a row saw more than +160,000 cases per day and within those days, 7 days brought (non-consecutively) more than +200,000 new daily cases, a trend that I expect will continue. I would say that it's a certainty that going under +180,000 cases a day is now a thing of the past, +190,000 cases or more per day (see: rolling average) is the norm right now and soon enough, +210,000 per day will the norm. You can see that the rolling 7-day average (which, in this case, is also the weekly average) of +211,091 is already +210,000. Now it remains to be seen if it stays there.

    Yesterday, I wrote
    You can see that every day except Monday in the week from 2020-07-006 through 2020-07-012 was exactly within this range. However, Sunday did not accelerate in cases. It was, however, +16,000 cases more than the Sunday before, far closer to +200,000 than to +185,000.

    The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

    The number of daily deaths on the surpassed currently being analysed surpassed the 4 Sundays before before, showing a steady Saturday climb in daily deaths. The daily deaths 7-day rolling average has been rising nominally every day since 2020-07-002.

    Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +500 C19 cases and above):

    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001 - total cases.png
    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002.png
    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 003.png
    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004.png
    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 005.png

    139-71-37-22-2
    In terms of total cases per country, there are now 139 nations in the "thousand club", with Liberia having crossed over the 1,000-line on 2020-07-012. Uruguay, Zimbabwe and Georgia are up next to cross over that line, not necessarily in that order.

    Of those 139,
    71 nations are now in the "10,000 club", with both Kyrgyzstan and Kenya having crossed over the 10,000-line on 2020-07-012. Australia, El Salvador and Venezuela are up next to cross over that line, not necessarily in that order.

    Of those 71 nations,
    37 are now in the "50,000 club". Bolivia, Portugal, Singapore and Panama are next up to cross over that line.

    22
    of those 37 nations are at at 100,000 or more, with Argentina having crossed over the 100,000-line on 2020-07-012. Currently at 77,056, Iraq is the land (other than stillstand China) now closest to the 100,000-line, so it will be a while before we see "100,000 activity" here.

    Of those 22,
    2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil.

    India (currently: 879,466 cases), which surpassed Russia in the total number of COVID-19 cases 6 days ago, is already +152,304 cases ahead of Russia. Yesterday, that margin was just under +130,000. Life comes at you fast. That being said, Russia now has over 727,162 total C19 cases, no small change, indeed. Therefore, four days ago, I extrapolated when the USA, Brasil, India and Russia will likely cross over the next available "million" line. The link is at the top of this analysis, but here again that link:

    Extrapolations: top 4 countries (next million mark), posted 2020-07-009, 12:45 GMT +2, #11042.

    India is exceeding the extrapolation, having recorded over +27,500 new cases for three days in a row. This means that India will cross over 1 million C19 cases earlier than I first thought. Brasil, on the other hand, is pretty much on schedule to break over the next million barrier. And the USA? The way things are getting out of control there, I probably should not have even attempted an extrapolation....



    In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 006 - new cases.png
    71-34-23-4

    71 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 75.

    34 countries had +500 or more cases. The day before, it was 35.

    23 countries had +1,000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 25.

    And finally,
    4 nations had over +10,000 new cases: USA, Brasil, India & South Africa. The day before, it was also 5. This is the sixth time that South Africa has gone over the +10,000-line, non-consecutively. This time, with +12,058, it is now far enough above +10,000 for three days in a row that shortly, it will be staying above that line for a good, long time, I predict. @Derideo_Te

    The USA receded to "only"
    +58,349 new C19 cases, still far outstripping any other nation on Earth, including Brasil, which last month often surpassed the USA in daily cases and still surpasses the USA in daily deaths.

    There can just be no doubt about it - in some corners of the world, with North, Middle and South America leading, C19 is advancing very quickly. But there are also signs that the Middle-East may become a true hotspot for COVID-19.


    In terms of total deaths per country, descending:

    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 007 - total deaths.png
    87-40-21-11-1
    There are now 87 nations with 100 total deaths or more.

    Of those 87,
    40 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, with Afghanistan having crossed over the +1,000-line on 2020-07-012.

    Of those 40,
    21 have over +5,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

    Of those 21, there are now
    11 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

    And finally, of those 11,
    1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

    Currently at 137,782 total deaths, the USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 24.12% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 24.23%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.


    Brazil, currently at 72,150 total deaths, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average (which, this time, is also the weekly average) is: +942. On 2020-06-024, Brasil ended the day with 53,874 deaths, so it has suffered +18,276 deaths since then. It is on track to reach 100,000 deaths right on or just after 2020-08-015.


    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:

    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 008 - new deaths.png

    You can see the top 9 nations, all over +100 daily deaths, for yourself, highighted in the screenshot above.


    9
    nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 11 the day before). 5 of those 9 countries are from the Americas.

    If you've been watching the daily death statistics for a while, you will notice a pedulum-effect, almost always between 9 and 11 nations per day with over +100 deaths, sometimes with 1 or 2 over +1,000.

    In terms of Total Tests administered per country:

    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 009 - total cases.png
    32 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece and of them, 5 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK and India.

    With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here.

    To date: the USA has performed
    42.5 million tests (700,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 23.0 million tests (200,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has now performed 4.6 million such tests.

    Facit: on 2020-07-012, the world went from just under 12.83 million total C19 cases, jumping over 12.9 to land just over 13 million cases. If you go to the top of the analysis and look at the excel table again, you will see that within exactly one month's time, from 2020-06-15 through 2020-07-012, the world grew FIVE MILLION COVID-19 cases.

    The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is numerically picking up substantially. The huge increase in total cases will invariably, absent a working vaccine, cause the average daily deaths to rise substantially, probably within the next 8-16 days. I'm already seeing evidence of a nominal average rise in worldwide deaths, it's been happening since 2020-07-002, more than one week ago.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2020
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  14. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    I read this post shortly after reading BBC articles about Covid-19 in Africa and I was struck by the following similarities.

    Both FL (270k) and South Africa (276k) have roughly the SAME total number of cases and while South Africa ranks #4 in the World when it comes to New Cases with record setting New Case numbers in the 13k range it was eclipsed by Florida's new record of 15k. Both have roughly similar numbers of Deaths with FL at 4,242 and South Africa with 4,049. South Africa has a population of 59 million which is almost 3 times larger that FL's 21 million.

    So why is a "shithole" nation in darkest Africa which has a significantly larger at risk population in poverty doing about the same as an American State with all of the latest and greatest medical resources at it's disposal?

    The answer might be found here;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53382797

    You may recall that a short while ago I posted an article about the UK reopening their pubs and a senior police officer making the connection that drunk people are incapable of Social DIstancing.

    It appears as though there is preliminary data to demonstrate that alcohol consumption in public settings is a risk factor for contracting and spreading the disease. We all know what happens on Spring Break and then there were the Memorial Day and 4th of July celebrations where alcohol consumption are notable elements.

    Now consider the added elements noted above of domestic violence, binge drinking and admissions to ER's. Those all place additional strains on the medical resources thereby compounding the alcohol related risk factor.

    Summer is party time here in America and we are making the most of it after the "lockdown" however one could make the case that we are drinking ourselves to death at the same time! :eek:

    FTR while the citizens of South Africa are deprived of alcohol they do have the right to grow and consume marijuana for their own personal use. :weed: :rock_slayer:
     
  15. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    https://www.propublica.org/article/...d-icus-leave-covid-19-patients-waiting-in-ers

    Maxed out hospitals means a higher death toll eventually because the DELAY in receiving medical care can mean the difference between life and death.
     
  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER

    There were some important small analyses and updates pertinent to the USA on 2020-07-012, between the last USA analysis and this one:
    Quick IDAHO analysis, posted 2020-07-012, 15:36 GMT +2, #11096.
    Florida reports +15,300 new C19 cases, surpassing New York‘s worst day, posted 2020-07-012, 17:29 GMT +2 / 11:29 EDT.
    USA update, posted 2020-07-012, posted 23:57 GMT +2, #11104.


    COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Sunday, 2020-07-012 (EOD = GMT +0):
    FLORIDA, FLORIDA, FLORIDA...


    ***3,413,995*** (26.20% of worldwide C19 total)
    +58,349 new COVID-19 cases (29.96% of worldwide new cases).
    In a row (+ or more): 18 days of +40,000, 7 days of +50,000, 4 days of +60,000-71,000.
    FLORIDA records +15,300 new C19 cases, surpassing NEW YORK on its worst day in April, 2020.

    There are now 137,782 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA (24.12% of worldwide total deaths).
    379 of them were recorded on this day (18.49% of worldwide daily deaths).

    7 day weekly average = 61,581 new infections & 745 deaths per day.
    1,517,084 people have recovered, 1,759,129 are still sick, 15,822 of them are in critical condition.
    The recovered statistic is static: margin = -7.09% vs. active cases (was: -7.07%).


    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    My goodness, what a weekend it has been in the USA. We STARTED the week last Monday with the highest daily case-load up to that time, and that on a Monday after a holiday weekend. Both Monday an Tuesday saw more than +50,000 new C19 cases apiece. On Wednesday and Thursday, we blew past the +60,000 barrier. Then, on Friday, and exceeding my estimates, the USA sailed past +70,000 new C19 cases. On Saturday, there was a reduction in +cases, but "only" to +63,000, which is still a huge number. On Sunday, the cases were once again reduced, but "only" to +58,000, still +11,000 more than the Sunday before.

    You can see that the rolling average (which, in this case, is also the weekly average) already shows more than +61,581 cases a day, which means advancing 1,000,000 cases in slightly more than 16 days each time, assuming we maintain the current rate. Since both Wednesday and Thursday were NOT the peak days this week, but rather, Friday, it was good to see the levels recede somewhat on both Saturday and Sunday, but even the leanest day, Monday (+57,905), was still more than any one day before, ever.

    Also, just to note: if you remove all of Florida's massive +15,300 from the daily new C19 caseload in the USA, the USA would still have come in over +43,000 cases, larger than any day pre-2020-06-025. Consider that.

    The actual number of daily deaths reported on this day, +379, reflects an UPTICK in Sunday deaths in the USA over the last 4 Sundays.

    The real concern (and I have been writing this for two weeks now)
    here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a measureable, uncomfortable spike in deaths will follow in the next 5-12 days, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, AZ, TX, CA and GA. Why 1-2 weeks? Because daily deaths are a lagging indicator. We are already seeing nominal evidence of this right now, but it's not held long enough to classify it as a trend. However, should these numbers continue to rise to the end of July, 2020, then I would say that we most definitely are having a trend.

    Why is the USA going through this when other nations are not? Why is the USA quite literally going in the wrong direction? Without wanting to editorialize, some things have obviously gone seriously wrong in the USA since the "reopening of the economy" starting at various dates and in various states of readiness. The worst part of this, as one member, @nopartisanbull - stated here so well in posting #11102, is that this is not even the 2nd wave. It's the 2nd curve within the 1st wave. We weren't supposed to have a 2nd curve, but here it is and it is mathematically, physically, emotionally and mentally undeniable. That's not good news for the USA. People really, really, REALLY need to read up on how much worse the 2nd full wave of the pandemic from 1918-1919 (1920) was. If we don't learn from our history, we may very well repeat it.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:

    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - total cases  001.png
    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - total cases  002.png
    57: 56-47-43-20-9

    56 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 50 of those 56 Units are US States. However, at 343 and the only Unit under the 1,000-line, the Pacific Territories (Guam / Northern Mariana Islands) may take a while to get there.

    47 out of 57 UNITS have over 5,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 42 of those 47 Units are US States. I've opened up +5,000 as a rubrik since every Unit in the nation except one has cleared the +1,000 mark.

    43 of the UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases, with Idaho having crossed over the 10,000-line on 2020-07-012. 40 of those 43 Units are states. The non-states: DC, Veterans Affairs and the US Military. Puerto Rico and US Federal Prisons are probably up next to cross over the 10,000-line.

    Of those 42, 20 (all of them states) have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases.

    Of those 20, 9 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases. At 99,794 cases, Pennsylvania is next up to cross over the line. I really thought that PA would go over the line on 2020-07-012, but it had an extremely good day in terms of very few C19 cases (+565).


    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:

    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - new cases  001.png
    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - new cases  002.png

    57: 53-39-10
    53 of 57 Units reported at least one new case. 48 of those 53 Units are states. This follows a pattern I have noticed, where Connecticut and Rhode Island report no statistics at all on Sundays. Also, the US Military tends to not report on Sundays, either.

    39
    of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 37 of those 39 Units were states. The non-states were: Veterans Affairs & Puerto Rico.

    10 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases (the day before, it was 13), all of them being states. Florida shocked the nation with a record-setting +15,300 new C19 cases, far surpassing New York's worst day in April, 2020. Yesterday, I noted this and also measured Florida's case-growth since it went over 100,000 total cases: Florida reports +15,300 new C19 cases, surpassing New York‘s worst day, posted 2020-07-012, 17:29 GMT +2 / 11:29 EDT.

    Florida's daily haul, on a Sunday, to note, was almost twice as much as California, which clocked-in at +7,702, a number that was absolutely horrifying just 2-3 weeks and now, in relation to Florida, almost looks innocent. At rank 3, Texas came in at just over +6,000, then with Arizona through Louisiana at between +2,500-1,300. The fact that a former epicenter of the virus, Louisana, is showing up again on the list, is not good news. Also bad news is that Ohio is remaining on the +1,000 list. Of the 10 states listed, 7 are from the Deep South, 6 of those 7 are complete coastal states, while Texas is a partial coastal state. As of North Carolina, all of the middle-atlantic and Gulf-coast states, save Mississippi, are the most affected. And Mississippi was not far below the +1,000 case mark, to note.

    Because Florida has set a record that I sincerely hope no one will be beating anytime soon, here the top-county listing for that state:

    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - new cases  003 - Florida.png

    That makes for 5 counties alone in Florida with over +1,000 new cases, among them, surprisingly, Lee County (which has no large cities, the largest, Cape Coral has about 195,000), which recorded +1,275 new cases. Ft. Myers is within this county and is also the county-seat. To be clear, just this one county in Florida reported more daily cases than 185 other NATIONS on the planet. Just this county alone. Now, let that sink in for a bit. And were the state of Florida a nation, it would have been rank 4 of the top five on this day, after the USA, India and Brasil, and right in front of South Africa.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD USA 004 - new deaths 001.png
    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD USA 004 - new deaths 002.png
    I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.
    57: 33-12-0

    33 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 32 of them are US States. The 1 non-state: Veteran Affairs.

    12 of 57 Units reported deaths in double digits or more, from +10 to +86. All 12 of those Units are US States.

    Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 0 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths.

    Just a reminder: some states lump their Sunday deaths into the Monday accounting numbers. I am researching why this is so, but I have the strong feeling it has to do with the availablity of coroner's offices on Sundays.


    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - total deaths 001.png
    2020-07-012 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - total deaths 002.png
    57: 47-25-7-2
    47 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 43 of those 47 Units are US States. At 96 and 87 total deaths respectively, West Virginia, and North Dakota will soon cross over that marker. The 4 non-states with over 100 deaths: DC, Puerto Rico, Veterans Affairs and the Navajo Nation.

    25 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 24 of those 25 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. Currently at 976 and 961 deaths, respectively, Rhode Island and South Carolina are approaching +1,000-death line and will likely cross over it within the month of July, 2020.

    7 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +5,000 COVID-19 deaths. All 7 of them are states.

    Out of all 57 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 137,782 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities. Here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between 136,400-151,400:

    [​IMG]

    This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of ALL of MIRAMAR or almost all of METAIRIE, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that.


    What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

    This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

    Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

    150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
    200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
    250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

    Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

    Right now, we are 2,187 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us just over 3 days ahead of the projection. This value is higher than the corresponding number from the corresponding Tuesday in June, shortly after the extrapolation began (2020-06-014, 1,863 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation at that time).


    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2020
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  17. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    I am afraid that there is no question about us REPEATING our previous history of mistakes.

    We cannot claim to NOT have had ample WARNING from the Tri-State area. We could see what worked and what didn't. We have their EXAMPLE of how to keep it down by applying the Pandemic Protocols and Precautions.

    Instead we have IGNORED all of the above and engaged in the utter stupidity of ABANDONING all of those things that would have PREVENTED the further spread of the virus.

    We have EXPERTS for a REASON and that reason is that they provide us with ADVICE when we are dealing with things where we LACK subject matter knowledge. ALL of the experts have repeatedly informed us what we must do but apparently Science Denialism has a greater influence on us than common sense.
     
  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    After all the carnage we have seen, it is only fitting and proper to note that New York City, for the very first time since March, reported ZERO COVID-19 deaths on 2020-07-012. This detail went by me (uhm, sorry) during the writing of the USA analysis.

    When we consider the NYC has until now been, by far, the hardest hit city in the nation as far as the pandemic is concerned, reaching a day with no deaths at all is a very positive milestone, at least for New Yorkers. I certainly am a lot happier when people are not dying.
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2020
  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    In the Sunday print edition of the Houston Chronicle for 2020-07-012, the obituary section was 44 pages long.

    I am going to write that again.

    In the Sunday edition of the Houston Chronicle for 2020-07-012, the obituary section was 44 pages long.

    And this is just the start for Texas. And Houston is just one of a number of extremely large cities in Texas.
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2020
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  20. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    It was NOT the headlines in this article that grabbed my attention...

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/united-states-coronavirus-florida_n_5f0be055c5b6480493d2071e

    Early signs of the 2nd wave in Europe?
     
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  21. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    Trump's base believes that the fatalities are lies by the Deep State and the dead are actors hired by George Soros.
     
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  22. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    A combination of paranoia, belief in bizarre conspiracies and a tenuous grasp on reality are necessary for that to happen.
     
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  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I don't see any text.... are you talking to the air??? :)
     
  25. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Nope, responding to this;

     
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