Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski; America Should Stop Putin From Restoring Czarist Empire

dod you mention 80th?

The Chinese play very smart on far-east and Siberia,Putin knows about it but can´t do a thing about it. only slow down the Hans plans ...

 

Putin went and told the Russian people that they didn't need the west and that China was interested in developing Siberia.

Of course that was when Oil was over $100 a barrel....now the Chinese have no intention of giving $50 to $100 Billion to Russian Oil Companies when they can buy Oil from OPEC or the U.S. or Canada at very low prices.

This is why Putin has been talking to OPEC Nations as well as talking to Iran as Iran will soon be producing and exporting oil again.

The more oil available...the lower the price of oil.

The lower the price of oil....the lower the Russian Economy will sink.

AboveAlpha

 

The fact the Russian Economy is highly dependent upon Oil Prices is a fact and no dream.

The fact that China no longer is interested in giving huge sums of money to Russia to develop Siberian Infrastructure is specific to the fact there now exists a lot of oil available for purchase and this means low oil costs.

It costs a lot of money to produce a barrel of Siberian Oil compared to the amount it costs to produce a barrel of oil anywhere else.

Oil will fall below how much it costs Russia to produce a barrel.

AboveAlpha

 

You absolutely do not know anything about the oil industry. Nothing! But for you it's okay. Dull propaganda instead a knowledge is all that necessary for a true patriot of the United States.

Goldman Sachs Busts Myth Of Impending Russian Oil Collapse

Yesterday's Russian downgrade pulled yet another raft of "smartest people in the room" to tell investors how screwed Russia is by low oil prices (and yet the US Shale industry is fine and will manage through this). However, Goldman Sachs prefers facts in its analysis of the Russian oil sector and concludes, investor concerns about the health of Russia's oil industry should remain more myth than reality.

Via Goldman Sachs,

Geydar Mamedov discusses myths and realities in the outlook for Russia's oil sector

There are increasing concerns among investors that lower oil prices might hit Russian crude production and materially worsen Russian oil companies' financial position. Where are the myths and realities in this narrative? While refining segment margins will narrow, low upstream sensitivity to changes in the oil prices means that, if anything, Russian oil production should grow. And Russian oil companies' strong financial position makes them capable of navigating the oil price downturn - even in the face of sanctions limiting their access to external funding.

Myth: Lower oil prices mean lower production

Two factors contribute to the low sensitivity of Russian upstream cash flow to oil prices. The first is upstream industry taxation: the per-barrel tax rate decreases as oil prices fall, shifting most of the upside/downside due to changes in the oil price from the oil producers to the state. The second factor is a ruble-denominated cost structure. Russian oil producers' opex and capex mainly consist of ruble-denominated contracts, as the services industry is localized. These factors offset the negative impact of oil price declines on upstream earnings.

Effectively, at US$110/bbl oil and 33 RUB/USD, Russian upstream free cash flow (FCF) for the companies we cover is roughly the same as under US$60 oil and 60 RUB/USD. Hence, we do not expect to see a slowdown in upstream activity. Moreover, the Russian government is likely to incentivize output growth in order to mitigate the impact of lower oil prices on budget revenues. Given that Russia has one of the lowest cash costs of production in the world, it would make sense in the current oil price environment for Russia to maintain its market share. We therefore expect production to reach 532 million tons in 2015 from 527 in 2014.

I and many people in Russia know that one wave of decline of oil will be. Around $ 32 for barrel is main purpose. By the way, do you know that oil shale companies have $ 150 billion of bad debts now? And the Bakken in Canada already died... In addition, in 2016 Russia will start an operation against terrorists in Iraq. It will help the price of oil to rise.

 

Yes....Shale Oil companies are in the red...for now.

The reality is that low oil prices are the cause of the current Russian Economic Depression.

It doesn't matter what anyone say's.

The ONLY thing that matters is if Russia's GDP goes UP or goes DOWN.

Right now it's going DOWN and is estimated to continue doing so.

AboveAlpha

 

Russia will emerge stronger from this crisis. NATO aggression against Russia will have a lasting impact. Sooner or later NATO countries will feel Russian boots in own ass.

 

LOL!!!

Come on Don!!!

You know and I know and everyone else in the world KNOWS that Russia want's nothing to do with any Military Action against NATO!!! LOL!!!

The Russian Military....although better than it was 10 years ago....is vastly outclassed and inferior to NATO.

AboveAlpha

 

Well, breaking the Russian people's spirit is just the thing to lay the pathway to another decade of control under Putin.

Once the spirit's broken, it's broken and unscrupulous people can walk all over them.

 

The problem is Putin is not doing anything to help the Russian economy and a day will come...soon....that Putin will have to ask the U.S. to help Russia solve their economic problems.

The U.S. is the ONLY nation both capable and willing to help Russia.

But we will want a few things.

AboveAlpha

 

You think Putin will be made to go soon...

Well, I'm feeling particularly generous right now.

I hope that any plans includes allowing a last ditch option to Putin to seek asylum in the United States. I think we should always allow a back door exit, even to crazy dictators, because how else will they stop if they're backed into a corner?

 

Putin is a survivor so he will make a DEAL before it get's to any point that his rule will be questioned in Russia.

AboveAlpha

 

Alpha, oil is only sixteen percent of Russia's GDP. It has it's gas industry, and it is the second largest supplier of arms in the world. In addition it builds nuclear reactors, and is either the world's first or second largest supplier of wheat. It also is the world's largest supplier of timber, and it has coal, copper and every other mineral in existence.

It has its gold mines, diamond mines, silver mines, platinum and its Beluga and Ossetia caviar, and soon it will be exporting meat and poultry. So except for a few industrial parts, Russia is completely self sufficient...thanks to Vladimir Putin, and the embargo he imposed on the EU after the sanctions.

Russia now stopped all payments for its exports in dollars, and will only accept Rubles. As for the country that will go broke in a few years because of the oil prices, since it has nothing other than its oil, is Saudi Arabia.

 

I believe you. Because I think Putin is a reasonable man. Well at least as long as you don't get on his bad side.

But Putin can fool the average Russian who appears to be willing to endure any hardship.

 

In 2012 the Russian oil-and-gas sector accounted for 16% of the GDP, 52% of federal budget revenues and over 70% of total exports.

Now it is 80% of all exports....67% of all revenues and 20% of the GDP.

That is more than enough of a percentage for any collapse in oil prices to do massive economic damage to the Russian economy.

AboveAlpha

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He can and he does.

But you can only fool the people for so long.

AboveAlpha

 

Alpha I forgot, Russia has one thing more...its people, and their genius to unite and bond against any outside force that tries to hurt them....whether it be Napoleon, Hitler, or the Washington neo cons.

And they will win, they always win.

 

What if it turns out they actually like it.

Ever hear of Stockholm Syndrome?

 

Or maybe a better term would be Traumatic bonding.

 

It's number 1 supplier of nuclear energy

 

While he was a prime minister, Putin extended the maximum term from 4 to 6 years.

If Putin keeps getting re-elected he will be a president till 2026 or something.


With his approval rating of 90%, I don't think he's going anywhere anytime soon

 

You think I have some desire to see ruin befall the Russian people!!???

NO!! I do not!!

Especially after all the time I spent in Russia!!

I have...MANY....Russian friends who were my Cold War Counterparts who live primarily in and around Moscow and I talk with them often nowadays as well I have several member friends on this forum who either were former Russian citizen's who are now living in the E.U. or are still living in Russia and ALL OF THEM tell me that the Russian Economy has been devastated and everyone is fearful of Putin so they do not speak out because those that do speak out are either found dead or are sent to prison.

I know Russia and Moscow, St. Peters-burg and other Russian cities better then I know Syria and Damascus....and I know Damascus extremely well.

I first was sent to Moscow back in 1984 after the whole Able Archer 83 debacle and I made many friends even during the Cold War Soviet Union.

I want absolutely nothing more than peace and prosperity for my Russian friends and the Russian people who have suffered for so long by the rule first of Czars then the Communists and now Putin.

Putin is the problem.

Putin was arrogant and he made the mistake of breaking a DEAL with the United States and this DEAL cost the U.S. Taxpayers over $300 Billion.

There is not a country on Earth that is capable of withstanding U.S. Economic pressure and this pressure is something we did not even want to apply as we spend so many Billions of Dollars trying to stabilize the Russian economy.

But Putin annexed the Crimea....and was going to annex a swath of land along the North Northwestern Black sea shoreline which would have directly connected the Crimea to Russia.

We stopped this when both the U.S. and Canada flooded the global oil supply causing oil prices to drop from well over $100 a barrel to below $48 a barrel.

Putin vastly underestimated the ability of the United States to control both Oil Production and Oil Prices as well as our ability to control how OPEC votes.

But understand it is in the best National Security Interests of the United States to have a functioning and prosperous Russian Economy but we CANNOT ALLOW Putin to just annex any nation or territory he wants.

You say Russia always wins?

Russia has already LOST...big time.

The Russian Economy is in a DEPRESSION!!!

The Russian GDP has gone from $2.2 Trillion in 2014 to $1.98 Trillion in 2015 and is estimated by PUTIN HIMSELF to be at $1.79 Trillion in 2016.

Putin himself estimates a Russian GDP decline of between 4.5% to 7.5% yearly after 2015.

There is only ONE WAY that the Russian Economy can recover at this point and that is for Putin to MAKE A DEAL WITH THE UNITED STATES!!!

We are the ONLY nation both capable and WILLING to help Russia.

Putin will make the DEAL.

AboveAlpha

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Putin fully intends to rule Russia till the day he dies.

There is a VERY good reason for this.

That reason being former Soviet and Russian DICTATORS have never fared well after either leaving or being removed from power.

AboveAlpha

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Yes I have!! LOL!!!

GOOD ONE!!

AboveAlpha

 

America is not willing to help russia

Why back a neo natzi militairy Co in ukraine. Even the Ukrainian people rebeled against them. They killed bunch of civilians. You could look at the pictures yourself. Bullet ridden cities with swastikas painted on building walls

Ukraine’s Interpol-wanted leader of extremist group Right Sector, Dmitry Yarosh, has been appointed as an adviser to the country’s Chief of General Staff. He has agreed to legalize thousands of fighters as an assault team subordinate to the regular army.
https://www.rt.com/news/247001-ukraine-army-adviser-yarosh/

Of course russia took advantage of the situation. But it's not like they took Crimea by force. They had a vote and it was something like 90% voted to join russia.

In fact many more Ukrainians fled across the border. So many people were leaving that ukraine resorted to keep them in by force.

American role in constantly violating of international borders and killing dozens of civilians abroad with drone attacks is much more dire.

If we cared about people we would not have invaded iraq or killed Gaddafi.

 

We have been helping Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Over $300 Billion is U.S. Taxpayer money as help!!!

China no longer has any interest in helping the Russian Economy as when oil prices fell below $48 a barrel China backed away from it's promises to help Russia develop Siberian Infrastructure which is first required before any large scale energy exploitation can begin in Siberia.

The European's lost a TON of money when Putin seized every large private company in Russia where European's had invested vast amounts of money....thus Europe has no intention of being burned again.

The ONLY nation both capable and willing to help Russia is the United States and we are most willing because a stable and prosperous Russian Economy = Less U.S. Defense Spending.

The Russian economy would never have survived it's first couple of years after the collapse of the Soviet Union if it was not for the U.S.

The U.S. FORCED Europe to forgive Billions of Dollars in Soviet Debt.

The U.S. also helped stabilize the Ruble and helped Russia get into the G-8.

AboveAlpha

 

When Putin took over the country was ruled by the mob who had ties with oligarchs, who didn't care for anone but themselves.

When Putin took power. He seized all the business for that reason. Russian economy was controlled by the mob. By him having direct control, he ensured that there was no corruption. Anyone else would the victim of bribes, violence, and intimidation. If it's putin, he could just handle it right then and there.

Under Putin's rule corruption fell. He seized many assets of corrupt officials.

Sure many oligarchs suffered. It's those same oligarchs that had deals with foreign powers

Now I know that western media doesn't talk about it in that way. Thay spin it and make it look like Putin is a bad guy for doing thsee things.


But as Putin put it.

"You want us to follow democracy? Which model? France where there are human violation in their prisons or the Americans who have their Electoral college."

You have one model in one place, and another in the other

No nation is the same just like no person is the same.

You want russia to just go along with what ever america does and says? With no individuality, no freedom?

 

OK...let me tell you the reality.

There was a meeting of a number of CEO's of very large Russian Companies most Energy Companies with Putin before Putin began seizing what would be every single large privately owned company in Russia.

At this meeting Putin raised the issue of many of these companies being behind in paying their taxes and the CEO's of these companies and this meeting was broadcast on Russian TV seemed very alarmed when Putin brought up the issue of their being behind in paying their taxes.

Now why?

I will tell you what happened and I have vast experience in both Soviet Russia and Russia.

Putin made a DEAL with these very large private and primarily Russian Energy Companies in that if a company owed $5 Billion in Taxes....Putin would make their tax bill only 60% of that total thus $3 Billion if the company paid Putin and his buddies 10% of the total owed tax amount thus $500 Million.

What Putin did was set these companies up and Putin was able to not only get his 10% but after getting it Putin and 110 Buddies of his seized these companies under the guise that PRIVATIZATION of all large Russian Privately Owned Companies was the only way to ensure they would pay their taxes!!!

Because of this Putin and 110 of his friends now own over 35% of total Russian Wealth!!

This is the largest wealth disparity IN HISTORY!!!

Even the Kings and Queens and Czars of Europe and Asia 1000 years ago did not obtain this level and overall percentage of wealth!!

The RUSSIAN MOB has been supplanted by PUTIN'S MOB!!!

And if YOU do a bit of research you will see that every single now RUSSIAN STATE OWNED COMPANY makes sure to pay their taxes on time but NOT ONE RUBLE OF PROFIT IS SEEN BY THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE!!!

AboveAlpha

 

Oh come on Alpha, stop the fairy tales. How about a little reality from an American who knew Putin. Here's an excerpt:

"So what do you think of your new president?" None responded negatively, even though at that time entrepreneurs hated Russia's bureaucrats. Most answered similarly, "Putin registered my business a few years ago". Next question, "So, how much did it cost you?" To a person they replied, "Putin didn't charge anything". One said, "We went to Putin's desk because the others providing registrations at the Marienskii were getting 'rich on their seats.'" ​

http://www.sott.net/article/278407-...nts-character-and-his-countrys-transformation