It looks like the Fall Surge is coming

I'm well aware of that, as per my posts above. I "blindly" posted... LOL.
People who can't be bothered to think by themselves might include those who won't address my points #1 and #2 in post #24. Care to do that, now???
Look, fellow, you berated me and said "the UK alone... etc." disputing my numbers for the whole of Europe... you seemed to think it's cumulative, that if the UK has more cases PER MILLION then Europe can't have fewer cases PER MILLION...
Now, if people look at the Johns Hopkins graph and get the wrong impression, that's on them, not on me. I merely said that there is a Fall surge, a fact you don't even dispute.

You're this close to making my Ignore list. I'll give you ONE more opportunity to apologize for assuming that I have a problem with numbers, when you didn't seem to realize that the average for the continent can be lower than the average for the UK. I'm waiting. If in 10 minutes you don't apologize for this, you'll be a proud member of my Ignore list. Starting the count now. The ball is on your court.

 

Perhaps you should leave your condescending attitude elsewhere. You cannot accept that my post number 3 is correct and your condescending reply in post 5 is nonsense.

The whole of Europe was hit at the same time so the average for Europe follows the same pattern as for the UK so that's another of your claims are wrong. Why don't you apologise?
LOL at you giving me 10 minutes, who do you think you are. Those who put others on ignore are scared to debate

 

No, that's just not true. Europe was hit at the same time but with vastly different cases PER MILLION country-to-country, such as Germany having much fewer, Finland having way fewer, Iceland having much much fewer, etc., etc. That you don't seem to grasp the concept of an AVERAGE is mind-boggling. I am not scared to debate...

I just think it's a waste of time to debate with certain people (life is short). You make an ABSURD claim like this one, you still insist with it, and you want me to stick around and continue to debate with you? LOL.

Say, two countries with the same population, roughly, both around 60 million inhabitants. One, country A, has 1,000 cases per million, the other, country B, 100 cases per million. I say, "the average of cases per million for these two countries is 550." You say "it can't be, you're wrong, because it is 1,000 per million for country A alone so the average for both can't be lower than that." LOL. And then you accuse ME of having a problem with numbers... And you won't apologize.

You keep clinging to the notion that estimated cases are higher than confirmed cases therefore the peak in May was larger than the surge we're seeing as if I'm wrong about it... I NEVER FOR ONE MOMENT SAID THAT THE CURRENT SURGE IS BIGGER THAN THE PEAK IN MAY!!!! I even used the word "uptick" which if you understand English, means merely something going up, not necessarily a peak and not necessarily more than a previous peak. So your objection doesn't even apply to what I was saying... I ask you to point to where I said that the current uptick is bigger than the May peak, and you didn't do that, because you can't, since I NEVER SAID IT!!!!

Me, afraid to debate? I've debated extensively with YOU here, and with many others elsewhere, but when one hits this kind of wall, and someone still doubles down on it with this unrelated claim... "the whole of Europe was hit at the same time" which has NOTHING to do with the fact that the AVERAGE for EUROPE is still lower than the AVERAGE for the UK, duh... it's useless to continue the debate. There's just too big a gap in, well, understanding of numbers.

I gave you an opportunity. You didn't take it. Welcome to my Ignore list. Have a long and nice life.

 

LOL He posts a graph that implies that the number of new daily cases is higher now than they were in April/May and when that is pointed out he then goes onto writing about averages that no one ever claimed otherwise! And now he has run away

 

Okay, then explain why your side is claiming that the number of COVID-19 cases are being underreported. Homeless drunks often share the same liquor bottle while standing together in a group on the street corner before walking up to us working class people begging for change and not social distancing. Illegal immigrants are undocumented, often work multiple jobs under the table, and don’t call in sick at work when they are supposed to. Who is going to tell any of those people to wear a mask and go get tested for COVID-19 when they are showing the symptoms? You?

 

First, what is "my side"???
My side is the side of science.
Second, I don't dispute that the homeless and the illegals may have a disproportionally high share of infection in terms of percentage of their population. What I'm disputing is that it is the MAIN problem. Just look at the sheer number of homeless people and illegals and compare them to the 331 million inhabitants in this country. Do you still care to say that these small segments of the population represent the MAIN problem in this pandemic? Hello???

Look, I'll give you a source that you'll probably won't dispute: the White House. It estimates the number of homeless in the United States at 552,830 of which 358,363 at least were sheltered. So only 194,467 were on the streets. But just for the sake of the argument, let's get the full number: they represent 0.16% of the US population... and you call them the MAIN problem? LOL.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-State-of-Homelessness-in-America.pdf

 

Your side of the fearmongering fence.

If they are spreading the virus unchecked, unmonitored, and the virus is being underreported according to your side, then yes they are part of the main problem.

 

There is no fearmongering, at least not as far as *I'm* concerned, otherwise I wouldn't have started the most hopeful thread of them all regarding this pandemic, called The State of the Vaccines (look it up; the moderators kindly pinned it to the top of the Pandemic Discussions sub-forum).

As a healthcare worker (I say it like this as I don't want to make other claims about my professional status but I'll just say, I'm not at the bottom of the pole) with 40 years of career, I post from the standpoint of the medical sciences, to raise awareness of what this virus can do, and how to best protect oneself from it (thus my advocacy for certain kinds of masks and for how to wear them, and other measures, while we wait for a vaccine, which I'm highly hopeful for), and that's most definitely not fearmongering, but rather, prudence.

Even IF 100% of homeless were infected (which is of course an absurd assumption), they would still be a tiny part of the problem, as they represent a very tiny percentage of the American population. To pretend that this is the MAIN problem (now you're moving the goalposts and saying "part" of the main problem, not what you initially said) is frankly ridiculous.

And then, this 0.16% is the total homeless population... while 65% of them are sheltered. Shelters, like other care facilities, generally have measures in place to screen people and contain outbreaks.

So, let's look now at what percentage of the population the homeless who are truly unchecked and unmonitored represent. 0.058% of the US population!!! Do you realize how tiny this is?? Do you still care to call it part of the MAIN problem???

I mean, in your place I'd just say, "sorry, I misspoke. Let me rephrase it; they can be a problem, but not the main problem." That, I would agree with and I never disputed the idea that they may have a higher rate of infection than that of the general population; I just dispute your use of the word MAIN.

You may have a better claim when you talk about illegals. Indeed, it's been reported that illegals working at meat plants, for example, have a higher percentage of infection. They have little access to care and testing, are not encouraged to call in sick, and they tend to live in multi-generation households that are crowded and unsanitary. Still, they are only 3.32% of the population, so I'd say they are a significant problem, much more significant than the homeless, but again, wouldn't say they are the MAIN problem. Many of them work (illegally) in places that do screen and test, and the CARES act did provide for reimbursement for hospitals and clinics if they take care of uninsured Covid-19 patients so while their access to healthcare is worse, it is not non-existing. California for example, which holds a large proportion of the nation's illegals, has allocated funds to assist them:

"California’s $75 million Disaster Relief Fund will support undocumented Californians impacted by COVID-19 who are ineligible for unemployment insurance benefits and disaster relief, including the CARES Act, due to their immigration status."

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/04/15/g...port-california-workers-impacted-by-covid-19/

Not to forget, not all illegals are circulating freely and spreading the virus around. There are an estimated 6 million illegals in the workforce. Others are housewives, children, elderly parents of the active workers... So, those 6 million are 1.8% of the American population. And again, it's preposterous to believe that 100% of them are infected. So it's a percentage of that, necessarily, even because if too many of them got infected, their communities would achieve the herd immunity threshold and the contagion would stop. So, it's 1.8% of the American population, and say, if 33% of them are infected (which is a very high number that is unlikely, but again, just for the sake of the argument) then we'd have 0.6% of the population in this situation. Again, the numbers just don't support your idea of this being the MAIN problem.

And I'm not saying so out of any sympathy for the illegals. I'm strongly against illegal immigration and even call it a pet peeve of mine because I tend to go on long rants against it. I abhor notions such as sanctuary cities, I favor strict control of the borders, I favor strict enforcement of labor laws to prevent them from getting jobs, I favor deportation of as many of them as feasible, and I don't favor federal benefits of any kind being extended to them - except that in this pandemic, it is actually helpful to us, Americans, if they get some assistance to prevent them becoming a source of infection that would bounce back onto us (just like I'd favor measures to control possible outbreaks of tuberculosis brought in by illegal aliens).

But no, it's not the MAIN problem in this pandemic. It's *a* problem, and definitely regardless of the pandemic, homelessness and illegal immigration are problems we need to solve, but their impact on the pandemic is small because their numbers are small. I mean, don't read me wrong, one illegal alien present here in the US is one too many in my opinion. But talking about epidemiological indicators, their numbers are proportionally small.

 

Excess death studies prove you are wrong. Facts go on.

 

If you don't care about people dying, then no one can convince you to care about anything. Anti-life nihilism is immune to the concept of the value of human life.

 

Reading comprehension is not your strong suit, or maybe you just read what you want to read and disregard the rest that does not agree with you. I kept it short and sweet for you, and you still got it wrong. I did not “misspeak”; I was very clear in what I said. Homeless people are PART of the main problem; illegal immigrants are the OTHER PART of that problem. Please tell me. O High and Mighty 40 Year Medical Worker, that you are keeping tabs on all of the homeless people and illegal immigrants that you treat in your hospital on the tall hill, making sure that they all cover their mouths and wear their masks and social distance from each other. Because it only takes one of those urchins to spread the virus to an unsuspecting person or group of people. Pin that idea in your thread, Doctor.

 

Look, I think the person with the reading comprehension problem here, maybe is not me, because what I'm saying is that I don't dispute that these issues are problems, just not the MAIN problem, given that one represents 0.058% of the population and the other represents 0.6% of the population. See, add these two. You get 0.658%. The rest are 99.342% of the population. What are the odds that the MAIN issue in terms of a contagion involving millions and millions of Americans, resides in the 0.658% rather than in the 99.342%?

No, you are wrong, because even if you tried to say that these two are parts of the main problem, you isolated them in a unique set as THE main problem. Refer to your original statement, please. Here it is:

"The main problem is with the unregulated and untested groups of people that nobody wants to crack down on for fear of political backlash. And yes, I am referring to the homeless population and illegal immigrants, who are allowed to roam maskless and free instead of forced quarantine like the government should have done to them months ago."

Uh, nope. They aren't the MAIN problem. Their numbers are too tiny, even added together, to be the MAIN problem.

Like I said, if you had phrased it "I see these two populations as problems, among the very many problems that contribute to this pandemic" I'd have had no problem whatsoever with what you were saying, and would just have said "agreed" and moved on.

Again, these are *a* problem, not the MAIN problem. I stand behind what I'm saying, despite your condescending tone above. Whatever.

------------

I had my fill of arrogant and condescending ignorance, partisanship, and dishonest debating, today. I'm not necessarily talking of you, but in general. My patience is at its limit. I'll stay away from this forum for a while, recharging batteries. I took a short staycation (was very tired, the work at the hospital has been exhausting) and I plan to binge watch some TV shows rather than trying to patiently explain things to people who apparently can't get it.

So, farewell for a while.

 

Good, so it's not the external conditions which cause that isolation/loneliness, it's the fact that the person has chosen to live alone and/or in a place without a strong social network.

Lockdowns don't create any such thing, if you live in a way that obviates physical and social isolation. Plenty of people absolutely loved being locked down in my country (and we had much stricter lockdown than America). A small minority struggled, but only because they'd set their lives up 'in isolation', as it were. It wasn't the lockdown that caused it, it was the very precarious and dangerous nature of living like an island. The lockdown was just a trigger.

 

Isolation only happened to people who live in an 'isolated' way. If you live in a home full of people, animals, and activity ... lockdown is barely noticed in that sense. In fact the primary downside is actually not ENOUGH isolation.

 

Which is why in Scotland when visits to other people's homes have been banned there are exceptions. That is people who claim to be an extended family which is two homes, one with people living on their own or living alone with children and another home generally with family. They are also not asking those more vulnerable to remain isolated. That is because they now understand the serious psychological problems which happen when people are forced to spend weeks or months in solitary confinement.

 

You are right the graph was wrong. However it is also true that on the same testing regime the No of positive cases for the UK is going up dramatically which would suggest a second round. France and Spain are the same. France in particular seems to be going up and up. Over 16,000 new cases yesterday and we were over 6000 and am I not right in thinking people are having more problems getting tests than they were a few weeks ago?

So yes, the graph is not accurate but it is true that we are seeing an uptake in cases. What is interesting is the low number of deaths compared to last time. It seems to be more than just lag time but we shall see. Could be just because it is younger people who are in the main testing positive and that will soon spread to older people.

 

All I did was point out to CenterField that the graph he posted gave the false impression that the virus is currently more rampant now that it was at the peak a few months ago and he went off on a condescending rant about something I never questioned anyway.

But yes, the second wave is definitely hitting Europe. For the UK we are seeing daily cases at around 6-7% of the peak of last May that we would have seen if we were able to carry out the same number of tests then as we are doing now. It is estimated that if we were able to test the same number of people back in May as we are doing now, the peak would have been about 100,000 cases per day Worryingly this percentage is increasing rapidly and you are right that there are problems of getting tests. Also worryingly is that the number of deaths is now increasing but hopefully not as rapidly as before

I'm very much an advocate of masks and also believe that by being exposed to very low virus loads can lead to developing immunity. I believe that the use of masks can help develop immunity by reducing the virus load

 

I know but they have Trump saying the only reason cases are rising is because they are being tested and his accompaning denial. I suspect when they see someone write anything about tests results being positive due to testing, they just think denier! It is also not impossible that someone did get all the results of Europe and create an average but it would be misleading/inaccurate because it would not be comparing like with like.

Yes, I think the difference with the more tests is last time the only people able to get a test were those who had managed to get themselves to hospital - hence those most likely to be positive. That in itself would account for less people in hospital and deaths with more positive tests but yes, hospital admissions and deaths are going up and I heard some time ago that France were getting concerned about their hospital's ability to cope.

definately

I totally agree with you here. They can certainly help people to reduce the virus load and hence make it less likely that people will get a high load and suffer serious consequenses and death but I am not so sure yet about immunity. That means I am not sure that just cathcing the virus does give long term immunity. It only gives antibodies for about ten weeks and even then not to everyone. But it is a possibility. Just another reason to make sure everyone wears masks. The can severely reduce the liklihood of catching covid and if you do catch it because the severity of this illness depends on the virus load. if everyone is wearing masks the load will be much smaller. Thanks for pointing that out.

 

Unfortunately for your fear mongering attempt....

CDC: COVID-Involved Deaths in Mid-August Down 63% From April Peak


https://www.cnsnews.com/article/nat...involved-deaths-mid-august-down-63-april-peak

 

And once again.


https://www.cnsnews.com/article/nat...involved-deaths-mid-august-down-63-april-peak

 

Challenge this guy and watch the temper tantrum. LOL

 

I just can’t believe that the pompous practitioner actually gave you a deadline and an ultimatum.

 

This is supposed to make us feel good? Only 750 people a day dying?

 

It makes me feel better, and that’s including the COVID-involved deaths. I wonder what the COVID-only deaths are running at now?

 

Doesn't matter. Dead is dead.