Russian Defense lines collapsing in Donetsk Oblast.

Wannabe mercs!

 

They'd better stick to helping the kleptocracy steal Syrian oil and African gold!

 

Yeah...that's more their speed.

 

Putin's private army props up his faltering war in Ukraine. But there's rot in its ranks

Putin's private military company, Wagner Group, struggles with supplies, ammunition, and morale as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to falter. CNN's Melissa Bell reports.
​

Includes an interview with the former Wagner commander mentioned in the article linked above.

 

Russians on the run.

World
The New York Times
'They Are in a Panic': Ukraine's Troops Size Up the Enemy

 

Ukraine reclaims more of the east from Russian troops

Reuters Videos

 

Oh gee...this is all "annexed" territory though?

This is getting embarrassing for the Dwarfstan?

 

I wonder what ever happened to those Syrian volunteers we heard about months ago. Did they ever make it to Ukraine? Are they part of Wagner?

 

Yeah....that was back in March sometime??.....I guess the thought of snow,mud& muck wasn't to appealing...especially when wearing sandals and coming from 90F heat.

 

I imagine they looked at the death rate among Russia's own troops and changed their minds.

 

What’s happening with the war in Ukraine? | Start Here


A nice overview of what has been happening and what Ukrainians are evidently trying to achieve right now. Oh, and also of how ****ed Putin is.

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates

Key Takeaways

• Western and Russian reports of fractures within the Kremlin are gaining traction within the Russian information space, undermining the appearance of stability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin may have waited to announce that he had replaced Eastern Military District (EMD) Commander Aleksandr Chaiko until he needed to use Chaiko as a scapegoat for Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman, Donetsk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations along the Kreminna-Svatove road in western Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions in northern Kherson Oblast, and Ukrainian and Russian sources reported ongoing battles north and northwest of Kherson City.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
• Anecdotal reports of poor conditions for mobilized personnel in the Russian information space are continuing to fuel the accurate narrative of Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) incompetence.
• Russian officials offered basic concessions for mobilized men and their families on October 7 but continue to rely on local governments and other non-federal institutions to provide support, including food and training, to newly mobilized men.
• Russian occupation authorities in Donetsk Oblast are continuing to forcibly mobilize Ukrainian civilians, belying Russian claims that residents of newly-annexed territories will not be mobilized.
• Ukrainian officials in newly liberated Kharkiv Oblast continue to uncover Russian torture chambers and other human rights abuses.
• Russian occupation officials have likely failed to repair necessary civilian infrastructure in occupied and illegally-annexed parts of Ukraine in time for winter as temperatures drop. . . .

Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations along the Kreminna-Svatove road in western Luhansk Oblast on October 7. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt at crossing the Zherebets River in an unspecified area in the Lyman direction.[17] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that heavy fighting is ongoing in unnamed settlements in Luhansk Oblast and noted that Russian forces are realizing the vulnerability of their defensive positions in Svatove.[18] Haidai added that Russian forces are mining infrastructure in Svatove and are stealing medical equipment from the settlement while calling on residents to evacuate.[19] Haidai added that Russian officers abandoned mobilized servicemembers in Kreminna.[20] Russian milbloggers reported that Central Military District Commander Colonel-General Alexandr Lapin is overseeing the situation on the Kreminna-Svatove stretch, especially Russian preparation of defensive positions in the area.[21]Russian sources claimed that Russian volunteer units BARS-16 and BARS-13 and elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division are entrenching their positions and uploaded footage of a military convoy reportedly moving in the direction of Svatove.[22] Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed that 1,000 Wagner soldiers redeployed to Lysychansk to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs in the area following the fall of Lyman.[23] . . .

Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign in Kherson Oblast to support their southern counteroffensive. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck an area of Russian force concentration in Borozenske (approximately 45km northeast of Nova Kakhovka), killing 10 servicemen and wounding 20.[36] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces struck three Russian ammunition depots in northern Kherson and southeastern Mykolaiv Oblasts and shot down a Russian Ka-52 helicopter.[37] Social media users reported that Ukrainian forces also struck Russian positions in Chornobaivka (northwest of Kherson City) and noted a gas pipe explosion in Kalanchak in southern Kherson Oblast.[38] Social media footage also showed the aftermath of a reported strike on a civilian mini-bus crossing the Inhulets River in Dariivka; Russian-appointed occupation officials blamed Ukrainian forces for the attack.[39] . . .

 

Ukrainian morale is high.
Liberating towns is a shot in the arm for Ukrainian troops - BBC
https://www.bbc.com › news › world-europe-63194377

Ukraine war: Liberating towns is a shot in the arm for Ukrainian troops.

 

This is what Russian defeat looks like.
Ukraine Conflict Updates

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted massive, coordinated missile strikes on over 20 Ukrainian cities.
• President Vladimir Putin claimed that the coordinated missile strikes were in retaliation for the explosion on the Kerch Strait Bridge, likely in part to curry favor with “pro-war” factions.
• Russian and Belarusian ground forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine from Belarusian territory to the north.
• Ukrainian forces have likely liberated over 200 square kilometers of territory in western Luhansk Oblast as of October 10.
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful attempts to regain recently lost territory in northwest Kherson Oblast while reinforcing nearby positions with damaged and hastily mobilized units.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian and occupation administration officials are setting conditions to move up to 40,000 residents out of Kherson Oblast to Russian-occupied Crimea and the Russian Federation.
• Russian forces cannot supply mobilized forces, likely due to years of supply theft by contract soldiers and commanders. . . .

The October 10 Russian attacks wasted some of Russia’s dwindling precision weapons against civilian targets, as opposed to militarily significant targets. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces successfully completed the mission of striking Ukrainian military command centers, signal infrastructure, and energy systems in Ukraine.[12] Social media shows that Russians instead hit a children’s playground, a park, a German consulate, and a business center among other non-military targets.[13] Ukrainian air defenses also shot down half of the Russian drones and cruise missiles. Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid will not likely break Ukraine’s will to fight, but Russia’s use of its limited supply of precision weapons in this role may deprive Putin of options to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson and Luhansk Oblasts. . . .

Mobilization in Russia continues to face bureaucratic and logistical challenges. Russian court records suggest that years of corruption and petty theft of military supplies among Russian military personnel has rendered the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) unable to provide mobilized troops basic necessities such as protective equipment, weapons, medical, and personal supplies.[56] The BBC reported on October 10 that Russian military garrisons have sentenced at least 558 men for clothing theft, and have made 12,000 fraud convictions and over 700 embezzlement convictions over the past eight years.[57] Stolen equipment includes millions of rubles worth of goods ranging from bullet-proof vests, boots, and diesel fuel to soap, toilet paper, and socks.[58] The data from these convictions likely represents a small subset of corruption in the Russian military. The governor of the Russian Mari El Republic acknowledged the Russian MoD’s supply problems impacting mobilized troops, promised to fix the problems, and attributed the challenges to ignorance of the mobilized men’s needs on October 9.[59] . . .

 

I suppose corruption will be less of an issue for Russia's military in the future, which could ultimately be problematic for Ukraine and potentially others. Kind of a shame to have that rot exposed since they're bound to fix it now.

 

It has been a problem in Russia for several centuries. I doubt there's a fix coming.

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted massive missile strikes across Ukraine for the second day in a row.
• Army General Sergey Surovikin’s previous experience as commander of Russian Armed Forces in Syria is likely unrelated to the massive wave of missile strikes across Ukraine over the past few days, nor does it signal a change in the trajectory of Russian capabilities or strategy in Ukraine.
• The Russian Federation is likely extracting ammunition and other materiel from Belarusian storage bases, which is incompatible with the notion that Russian forces are setting conditions for a ground attack against Ukraine from Belarus.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensives east of the Oskil River and in the direction of Kreminna-Svatove.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops continued ground attacks in northern and western Kherson Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces are continuing an interdiction campaign to target Russian military, technical, and logistics assets and concentration areas in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian reporting of explosions in Dzhankoy, Crimea, indicated panic over losing further logistics capabilities in Crimea following the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion.
• Russian federal subjects are announcing new extensions and phases of mobilization in select regions, which may indicate that they have not met their mobilization quotas.
• Russian and occupation administration officials continue to conduct filtration activities in Russian-occupied territories. . . .

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct offensive operations east of the Oskil River in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove on October 11. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces near Krokhmalne in Kharkiv Oblast (20km northwest of Svatove) and Stel’makhivka in Luhansk Oblast (15km northwest of Svatove).[19] The Russian MoD also claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attempted to cross the Zherebets River southwest of Svatove in the direction of Raihorodka and Novovodiane, Luhansk Oblast, on October 11.[20] [21] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are regrouping and restoring combat capabilities near Kupyansk to prepare for assaults near the Pershotravneve-Kyslivka line.[22] The milblogger also claimed that Ukrainian forces are concentrating personnel and equipment in the Lyman-Svatove direction to launch an offensive on Svatove and Kreminna with a strike group of up to 40,000 personnel.[23] ISW makes no effort to forecast Ukrainian operations or to evaluate the likelihood of Russian forecasts about them. . . .

Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian troops conducted ground attacks in northern and western Kherson Oblast on October 11. The Russian MoD claimed that two Ukrainian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) conducted offensive operations in the direction of Borozenske and Piatykhatky—both along the current Davydiv Brid-Dudchany frontline in northern Kherson Oblast and about 35km from the critical Russian-controlled town of Beryslav.[28] A Russian milblogger similarly indicated that Ukrainian troops are preparing to advance south of the Davydiv Brid-Dudchany line and conducting artillery preparations for subsequent attacks on Russian positions in the direction of Beryslav.[29] Russian milbloggers additionally indicated that Ukrainian troops are attempting to reinforce positions in the Davydiv Brid area (western Kherson Oblast near the Mykolaiv Oblast border and along the Inhulets River) to prepare for advances to the southeast.[30] Several Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops attempted to attack toward Bruskynske (6km south of Davyvid Brid), Ishchenka (8km southeast of Davydiv Brid), and Sadok (12km southeast of Davydiv Brid).[31] ISW offers no evaluation of these Russian claims regarding likely future Ukrainian operations or force groupings. . . .

 

"Gradually then suddenly."
Vladimir Putin's forces now facing 'total collapse' in Ukraine ...
https://www.news.com.au › world › news-story

17 hours ago — Vladimir Putin's crumbling army is heading for a total collapse in what could be Russia's biggest military disaster in a century, a former NATO ...

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates

Key Takeaways

• Russia is intensifying efforts to set information conditions to falsely portray Ukraine as a terrorist state to deflect recent calls to designate Russia as a terrorist state.
• Russian forces may have imported Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated personnel to occupied areas in Ukraine to train Russian troops in the use of Shahed-136 drones.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations toward Svatove and Kreminna. Russian forces are continuing defensive operations in this area.
• Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting ground attacks in northwestern and western Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• Russian forces are likely reinforcing the frontline in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Russian military continues to face problems equipping individual Russian soldiers with basic personal equipment.
• Russian and occupation administration officials continue to employ coercive measures against residents in Russian-occupied territories. . . .

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna on October 12. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces in the vicinity of Kyslivka, Kharkiv Oblast (25km northwest of Svatove).[7] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces also repelled Ukrainian assaults in the direction of Tabaivka (24km northwest of Svatove) and Orlianka (29km northwest of Svatove) in Kharkiv Oblast and in the direction of Kuzemivka, Luhansk Oblast (13km northwest of Svatove).[8] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced to the outskirts of Vilshana (44km northwest of Svatove) and reinforced positions in Dvorchina (54km northwest of Svatove) with air defense systems on October 12.[9] . . .

Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian troops conducted counteroffensive operations in northwestern and western Kherson Oblast on October 12. Several milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are continuing efforts to push south of the current frontline in northwestern Kherson Oblast and attacking toward Mylove (30km northeast of Beryslav along the western bank of the Dnipro River).[19] Russian sources additionally claimed that Ukrainian troops are attempting to advance past the Davydiv Brid pocket in western Kherson Oblast, with several milbloggers indicating that Ukrainians attacked toward Ishchenka and Kostromka (both within 10km south of Davyid Brid) from positions near Davydiv Brid.[20] ISW makes no effort to evaluate these claims or make forecasts regarding Ukrainian ground attacks in Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian military officials confirmed that Ukrainian troops liberated five settlements in northern Kherson Oblast and otherwise maintained operational silence regarding specific Ukrainian ground maneuvers in this area on October 12. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian troops successfully retook control of Novovasylivka, Novohryhorivka, Nova Kamianka, Trifonivka, and Chervone—all settlements in northern Kherson Oblast within 25km south of the Dnipropetrosk Oblast border that Ukrainian forces liberated around October 4.[21] Ukrainian military officials also noted that Ukrainian troops are continuing their interdiction campaign to target Russian concentration areas and military assets in Kherson Oblast to support ongoing ground maneuvers.[22] Residents of Kherson Oblast posted imagery reportedly of the aftermath of Ukrainian strikes near Kherson City in the Chornobaivka and Komyshany areas, in the Nova Kakhovka-Beryslav area, and southwest of Kherson City in Nova Zburivka.[23] . . .

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates

Key Takeaways

• Public reports of the first deaths of ill-prepared mobilized Russian troops in Ukraine have sparked renewed criticism of the Russian military command.
• Russian forces continued to launch strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure on October 13.
• Increasingly degraded morale, discipline, and combat capabilities among Russian troops in combat zones in Ukraine may be leading to temporary suspensions in offensive operations in limited areas.
• Ukrainian forces made gains northwest of Svatove.
• Russian forces are continuing defensive operations in anticipation of potential Ukrainian attacks towards Kreminna.
• Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Russian troops are attempting to recapture positions in northern and northwestern Kherson Oblast.
• Damage to the Kerch Strait Bridge continues to impede the movement of Russian supplies and personnel to southern Ukraine.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast and claimed to make marginal advances south of Bakhmut.
• Russian incompetence continues to take its toll on mobilized personnel before they ever reach the front lines, likely exacerbating already-low morale.
• Russian officials are likely increasingly limiting freedom of movement in Russia to preserve additional mobilizable populations and prevent them from fleeing the country.
• Russian occupation officials called for the evacuation of civilians from occupied Kherson Oblast. . . .

Ukrainian forces made gains in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast northwest of Svatove on October 13. Geolocated video footage posted on October 13 shows Ukrainian forces capturing Russian troops who voluntarily surrendered near the N26 highway in Krokhmalne, about 20km northwest of Svatove.[23] The footage likely indicates that Ukrainian troops have also taken control of the surrounding settlements of Pischane, Berestove, and Tabaivka.[24] Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian troops conducted ground attacks further north of Krokhmalne and attempted to attack Orlyanka and Kotlyarivka, both within 30km northwest of Svatove.[25] Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are consolidating positions west of Kreminna and attempting to cross the Zherebets River to prepare for attacks on the settlement.[26] ISW makes no effort to evaluate the veracity of Russian claims about future Ukrainian operations. . . .

Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign on October 13. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command spokesperson, Nataliya Humenyuk, noted that Ukrainian forces are continuing to target Russian pontoon and barge crossings across the Dnipro and Inhulets rivers.[37] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a command and observation post in Beryslav Raion and destroyed five ammunition warehouses in unspecified locations.[38] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also struck a Russian manpower concentration area in Tokarivka (approximately 30km east of Kherson City), killing 150 Russian servicemen.[39] The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces are repairing up to 30 damaged armored vehicles per day in Kalanchak, about 70km southeast of Kherson City.[40] Ukrainian Telegram channels reported unspecified explosions in Nova Kakhovka.[41]

The damage to the Kerch Strait Bridge likely continues to slow down deliveries of Russian supplies and personnel to southern Ukraine. Krym Realii published satellite imagery of over 1,000 trucks on the Russian side of the bridge waiting in a three-to-four-day line to cross the strait via the ferry. Krym Realii found that there are only four ferries operating with a capacity of 90 trucks and 300 people each.[42] Maxar satellite imagery also showed Russian military trucks using the ferry to cross the Kerch Strait.[43] . . .

 

The Battle For Bakhmut: Ukrainian Troops Hold On Amid Hail Of Russian Artillery

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates

Key Takeaways

• Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his “partial” mobilization will end in “about two weeks”—likely to free up bureaucratic bandwidth for the normal autumn conscription cycle that will begin on November 1.
• Putin may intend for mobilized personnel to plug gaps in Russia’s frontlines long enough for the autumn conscripts to receive some training and form additional units to improve Russian combat power in 2023.
• Ukrainian and Western officials continue to reiterate that they have observed no indicators of preparations for a Belarusian invasion of Ukraine, despite alarmist reports in the Belarusian information space that President Alexander Lukashenko has introduced a “counter-terrorist operation” regime.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on October 14 that there is currently no additional need for further massive strikes against Ukraine.
• Russian authorities are continuing to engage in “Russification” social programming schemes that target Ukrainian children.
• A prominent Russian milblogger accused unspecified senior officials within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of preparing to censor Russian milbloggers on October 14, but there is no official confirmation of an investigation or prosecution of these milbloggers.
• Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations in northeast Kharkiv Oblast east of Kupyansk.
• Russian troops conducted limited ground attacks west of Kreminna in order to regain lost positions.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast in order to regain lost positions.
• Russian troops continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and Donetsk City.
• Russian authorities expressed increasing concern over Ukrainian strikes against Russian rear logistics lines in southern Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian occupation authorities are continuing to consolidate control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) through strengthened security measures amid negotiations to establish a nuclear safety and protective zone at the plant.
• Russian officials continued to brand their movement of populations out of Kherson Oblast as recreational “humanitarian trips” rather than evacuations. . . . .

Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian troops are conducting counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on October 14. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks in the Kupyansk area.[34] A Russian milblogger similarly claimed that Ukrainian troops are continuing to attack along the Pershotravene-Kyslivka line, about 20km east of Kupyansk.[35] ISW offers no assessment of these Russian claims.

Russian sources conducted limited ground attacks to regain lost positions west of Kreminna on October 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack near Terny, 16km northwest of Kreminna.[36] Russian sources similarly reported fighting ongoing in the Terny-Torske area, with one milblogger claiming that the 208th Russian Cossack Regiment is fighting near Terny.[37] Russian milbloggers claimed that between 35,000 and 45,000 Ukrainian personnel have concentrated along the Svatove-Kreminna line and that Ukrainian troops are continually conducting reconnaissance operations in the direction of Kreminna.[38] ISW offers no assessment of this Russian claim. . . .


Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast on October 14 to regain lost positions. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack on Sukhyi Stavok, 10km southwest of Davydiv Brid and near the Inhulets River along the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.[39] Russian sources similarly reported that Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian strongholds around Sukhyi Stavok and making marginal gains in this area, although ISW has not observed any confirmation of Russian gains in the Sukhyi Stavok-Davydiv Brid pocket.[40] The Russian MoD and other Russian sources additionally claimed that Ukrainian troops are conducting ground attacks throughout northern and northwestern Kherson Oblast, particularly towards Piatykhatky (20km southeast of Davydiv Brid) and Ishchenka-Bezvodne (8km southeast of Davydiv Brid).[41] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops are reinforcing their positions along the Osokorivka-Novooleksandrivka line along the west bank of the Dnipro River north of Beryslav.[42] The same Russian sources also cautioned that the Ukrainian command is preparing for a counteroffensive northwest of Kherson City towards Ternovi Pody and Pravdyne.[43] ISW makes no effort to forecast potential Ukrainian operations.

Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian counteroffensive actions in Kherson Oblast on October 14. Footage and imagery taken by locals provides visual evidence of the continued Ukrainian interdiction campaign against Russian concentration areas and military assets east of Kherson City in the Beryslav-Nova Kakhkova area. Social media footage shows smoke rising over Tavriisk and the Kakhovka Raion (district), approximately 55km east of Kherson City.[44] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command confirmed that Ukrainian troops struck four Russian air defense positions in Beryslav and the Kakhkova Raion.[45] . . . .

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates

Key Takeaways

• Russia is conducting forced deportation of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in addition to apparent violations of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
• Prominent Russian milbloggers who yesterday announced the existence of “hit lists” reportedly originating with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and targeting milbloggers for their coverage of operations in Ukraine walked back their claim on October 15.
• The Wagner Group Private Military Company is likely continuing efforts to assert its supremacy over the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and more conventional Russian ground forces.
• Russia may have signed a new contract with Iran for the supply of Arash-2 drones.
• Russian forces continued counterattacks west of Kreminna.
• Russian milbloggers widely discussed the likelihood of a Ukrainian counteroffensive on Kreminna and Svatove.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops launched a general counteroffensive in northern Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces likely struck Russian military assets situated along Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Zaporizhia Oblast and southern Donetsk Oblast.
• Mobilized Russian forces engaged in a fratricidal altercation at a training ground in Belgorod Oblast.
• Russian and occupation administration officials continued to enact restrictions on movement and conduct strict law enforcement activities in Russian-occupied territories. . . .

Russian and social media sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in Severodonetsk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line and conducted a joint strike on Russian military hardware in the Kupyansk direction.[21]

Russian milbloggers widely discussed on October 15 the likelihood of a Ukrainian counteroffensive on Kreminna and Svatove. Several Russian milbloggers asserted that Ukrainian forces would likely launch an offensive on Russian positions in and around Kreminna and Svatove in tandem with Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast.[22] One Russian milblogger argued that Ukrainian forces intend to take Svatove by October 17.[23] Another Russian milblogger argued that Ukrainian forces are unlikely to launch a direct assault on Svatove and instead will attempt to cut off the highway leading from Svatove to Kreminna in support of capturing Kreminna.[24] ISW offers no assessment of the Russian milbloggers’ claims. . . .

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops launched a general counteroffensive in northern Kherson Oblast on October 15. Numerous Russian milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces initiated a mechanized drive on Russian positions along the entire frontline that runs between Davydiv Brid in northwestern Kherson Oblast and Dudchany in northeastern Kherson Oblast after conducting concentrated artillery preparation of the battlefield.[25] Several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops attempted to break through Russian positions in northeastern Kherson Oblast towards Beryslav and from northwestern Kherson Oblast towards Ishchenka and Stadok.[26] These Russian claims remain unsubstantiated. Russian milbloggers emphatically claimed that Russian troops repelled all Ukrainian attacks.[27] Russian milbloggers specified that elements of the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade and 810th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, 205th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 140th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, and 10th Spetsnaz Special Purpose Brigade are engaged in fierce fighting and holding the defense in this area.[28] The claim regarding the role the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade is playing is noteworthy in light of reports about the brigade’s exhausted state. . . .

Mobilized Russian forces engaged in a fratricidal altercation at a training ground in Belgorod Oblast on October 15. The BBC and Russian MoD reported that the mobilized Russian soldiers shot at each other at an unspecified training ground in Belgorod Oblast, resulting in at least 11 killed and 15 injured on October 15.[46] The Russian MoD described the shooting’s perpetrators as “terrorists” and said they were from an unspecified Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) country.[47] Mobilized Russian men continue to train at training grounds across the Russian Federation.[48] . . . .

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on October 16:

• Several Russian sources reported renewed Ukrainian assaults in the Kherson direction and Ukrainian sources reported higher-than-average numbers of daily shelling and missile strikes, but Ukrainian forces are maintaining operational silence about any operations.[1]
• Ukrainian military officials stated on October 16 that Russian forces are falsely claiming to have captured several towns near Bakhmut in the past several days, but Ukrainian forces have held their lines against Russian attacks.[2] Russian forces are likely falsifying claims of advances in the Bakhmut area to portray themselves as making gains in at least one sector amid continuing losses in northeast and southern Ukraine.
• Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate announced a $100,000 bounty for the capture of prominent Russian milblogger and former proxy commander Igor Girkin and confirmed his presence in Ukraine, stating “it is known that one of the most famous Russian terrorists has decided to renew his participation in the war against our state.”[3]
• Russian and Belarusian sources continued to report Russian men and material entering Belarus.[4]
• Ukrainian sources reported Russian occupation officials in Kherson City are stepping up filtration measures against Ukrainian partisans and accelerating efforts to evacuate key materials and personnel from Kherson to Crimea.[5]
• Unknown assailants attacked a military commissariat in the suburbs of Moscow with a Molotov cocktail on October 16.[6]
• Local Russian authorities in Krasnodar Krai reportedly intend to mobilize 1,000 more people by December 2022 and discussed proposals to redirect funding from entertainment events so supply mobilized personnel, seemingly contradicting Putin’s announcement that mobilization will conclude by the end of October 2022.[7]
• Poor medical care in both frontline and rear-area Russian units is exacerbating already dire morale problems.[8] . . . .

This campaign assessment special edition focuses on the specific parts of Ukrainian territory currently under Russian occupation that are important for the long-term viability of an independent Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are currently conducting a counteroffensive push in Kherson Oblast as of October 16. We will update our maps after information about the new front lines unambiguously enters the open-source environment.

Ukraine must regain certain specific areas currently under Russian occupation to ensure its long-term security and economic viability. Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against a future Russian attack requires liberating most of Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts. Ukraine’s economic health requires liberating the rest of Zaporhizia Oblast and much of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, including at least some territory Russia seized in 2014. Ukraine’s security would be materially enhanced by liberating Crimea, which would also benefit NATO’s ability to secure its southeastern flank.

Ukraine has every right to fight to liberate all the territory Russia has illegally seized, particularly in light of the continued atrocities and ethnic cleansing Russia is perpetrating in the areas it occupies. Kyiv’s insistence on regaining control of Ukrainian territory to the internationally-recognized borders is not an absolutist or extremist demand—it is the normal position of a state defending itself against an unprovoked attack as part of a war of conquest. It is also the default position of the international community under international law, as it should be. Nothing in the following discussion should be construed as supporting any attempt to encourage, let alone coerce, Ukraine to abandon either its claims or its efforts to free all its land and people.

However, Ukraine also requires the liberation of the areas mentioned above for purely strategic military and economic reasons. ISW continues to assess that Putin’s intentions toward Ukraine are unlikely to change whether or not a ceasefire or some other settlement occurs. The Kremlin would use any suspension of hostilities to consolidate its gains and freeze the frontline in the best configuration Putin can get to prepare for future coercion and aggression against Ukraine. Those seeking enduring peace in Ukraine must resist the temptation to freeze the lines of combat short of Ukraine’s international borders in ways that set conditions for renewed conflict on Russia’s terms. The purpose of this brief essay is to consider why specific parts of Ukrainian territory still under Russian occupation are so important for the long-term viability of an independent Ukraine that is not a financial ward of the international community and can effectively defend itself against a renewed Russian invasion. . . .

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted drone and missiles strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on October 17.
• Russian drone strikes against residential areas in Kyiv on October 17 are indicative of Russian forces prioritizing psychological terror over tangible battlefield gains.
• Yevgeny Prigozhin and affiliated Telegram channels are increasingly commenting on the ineffectiveness of traditional Russian military institutions, which may be undermining the Kremlin.
• A fratricidal altercation between mobilized servicemen at a training ground in Belgorod Oblast on October 15 is likely a consequence of the Kremlin’s continual reliance on ethnic minority communities to bear the burden of mobilization in the Russian Federation.
• Russia is continuing to leverage its relationship with Iran to obtain drones and missiles, likely to compensate for its increasingly attritted missile arsenal.
• A Russian Su-34 crashed near a residential building in Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai on October 17.
• Russian sources continued to discuss potential Ukrainian counteroffensive operations northwest of Svatove on October 16 and 17.
• Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian Forces are conducting counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast on October 16 and 17.
• Russian forces conducted ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast on October 16 and 17.
• Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian concentrations of manpower and equipment in Zaporizhia Oblast on October 16 and 17.
• Russian authorities continued measures to exert full control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
• Moscow City officials announced the completion of partial mobilization in the city on October 17, likely in an effort to subdue criticism among Moscow residents of reports of illegal mobilization in the city.
• Russian and occupation administration officials continue to promote “vacation” programs to residents of Russian-occupied territories likely as pretext for the deportation of Ukrainian citizens and the resettlement of Russian citizens. . . .

Russian sources continued to discuss Ukrainian counteroffensive operations northwest of Svatove on October 16 and October 17. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops around the Kupyansk area in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast are preparing to push east towards Nyzhna Duvanka, about 14km north of Svatove.[26] Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), also reported that Russian forces inflicted air and artillery strikes on the Ukrainian grouping in the Kupyansk area on October 16 and October 17.[27] Russian forces additionally continue to reinforce their positions along the Svatove-Kreminna-Lysychansk line and conducted limited ground attacks west of Kreminna in order to regain lost territory between Lyman and Kreminna.[28] The Ukrainian General Staff noted on October 17 that Russian troops attempted an unsuccessful attack on Torske, 15km west of Kreminna, which is consistent with claims made by Russian milbloggers that Russian troops are fighting for ground in this area.[29] . . .

Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations in northern Kherson Oblast on October 16 and October 17. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) released an intercepted phone call on October 17 wherein a Russian servicemen states that Ukrainian troops will conduct counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast in the coming days.[30] Several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops attempted to push south from the Nova Kamianka-Dudchany line towards Mylove and Piatykhatky.[31] Russian sources additionally claimed that Ukrainian troops attempted to break through Russian lines in northwestern Kherson Oblast near Davydiv Brid and that Ukrainian troops northwest of Kherson City conducting artillery preparation of the battlefield.[32] These Russian claims remain unsubstantiated. . . .