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The GA-06 special race: election returns and statistics thread

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Jun 20, 2017.

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  1. PrincipleInvestment

    PrincipleInvestment Well-Known Member

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    I think it's fair to say that ALL the right leaning posters give polls very little consideration. If the polls are proven correct in this race the perceptions of unreliability may change. Some theorize that Republicans avoid backlash by not acknowledging their affiliation, accounting for polling inaccuracies.
     
    PrincipleInvestment, Jun 20, 2017
    #51
  2. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    Fox News was anti-Trump at the beginning of the election but when it became clear that Trump was the front-runner and it wasn't going to stop their narrative shifted and became pro-Trump. Their executive Rodger Ailes even joined Trump's campaign. There is just no way that Fox News which is very anti-Hillary and pro-Trump would forge polling data to make it look like Hillary was leading when she wasn't. Fox News was the organization that was running anti-Hillary stories constantly throughout the campaign, and Trump was constantly on Fox talking about his ideas.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    Distraff, Jun 20, 2017
    #52
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  3. tres borrachos

    tres borrachos Well-Known Member

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    I've actually noticed that too.

    Have you seen any polls showing a massive victory for the Dems in this race, or have you also seen them so tight you couldn't possibly make a call?
     
    tres borrachos, Jun 20, 2017
    #53
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  4. Smartmouthwoman

    Smartmouthwoman Bless your heart Past Donor

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    Yes, polls showing the Dem winning the runoff by a landslide. Get over it.
     
    Smartmouthwoman, Jun 20, 2017
    #54
  5. tres borrachos

    tres borrachos Well-Known Member

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    Those were the polls from April. Those weren't the runoff polls.
     
    tres borrachos, Jun 20, 2017
    #55
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  6. Smartmouthwoman

    Smartmouthwoman Bless your heart Past Donor

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    What on earth does this have to do with the topic? Just cant resist jumping on that Trump train, can you? :deadhorse:
     
    Smartmouthwoman, Jun 20, 2017
    #56
  7. Smartmouthwoman

    Smartmouthwoman Bless your heart Past Donor

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    Polls are closed... one heavily Dem precinct stayed open 30 min later thanks to a sympathetic judge. Maybe that will help Pelosi's boy get elected.
     
    Smartmouthwoman, Jun 20, 2017
    #57
  8. PrincipleInvestment

    PrincipleInvestment Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, I'd have skimmed right over any polling data. Televised reports for a time reported a 7% -8% Dem margin, but 1.5% Dem margin, was last I heard. Dems have a lot more at stake in the race. It's really more about party moral than anything. This isn't a must win GOP race.
     
    PrincipleInvestment, Jun 20, 2017
    #58
  9. tres borrachos

    tres borrachos Well-Known Member

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    The big issue I have with being invested in the outcome of this race is these are two really uninspiring candidates, IMO. I'm not a fan of his at all (he strikes me as smarmy), and she just doesn't have much about her to admire. She seems nice enough, just very dull. I guess we'll see who prevails at the end of tonight. I agree that the Dems have more at stake here. Especially in light of all the money that they poured into his campaign. Yeesh. If I only had 1/10th of that....
     
    tres borrachos, Jun 20, 2017
    #59
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  10. PeppermintTwist

    PeppermintTwist Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Just cannot resist taking my post out of context and ignoring the post I responded and hint hint...it was not one of yours.
     
    PeppermintTwist, Jun 20, 2017
    #60
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  11. Smartmouthwoman

    Smartmouthwoman Bless your heart Past Donor

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    I know... somebody said Trump and off you went.
     
    Smartmouthwoman, Jun 20, 2017
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  12. Smartmouthwoman

    Smartmouthwoman Bless your heart Past Donor

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    Agreed. Both parties could've picked better candidates.
     
    Smartmouthwoman, Jun 20, 2017
    #62
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  13. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    What was the tone of the coverage?

    The lib news media constantly attacks trump while going much easier on the prefered democrat of the day
     
    Mac-7, Jun 20, 2017
    #63
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  14. PeppermintTwist

    PeppermintTwist Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Someone says Trump, the swindler who screws fellow Americans in the *** and you get off.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2017
    PeppermintTwist, Jun 20, 2017
    #64
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  15. JIMV

    JIMV Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Looks like the GOP will win by about 1.5%....the dems were up 2000 votes in the early vote but the numbers on election day votes show stronger support for the GOP then I expected.

    If the Republican wins as I expect, expect the results and the story to be gone by tomorrow noon. The Dems media will move on...
     
    JIMV, Jun 20, 2017
    #65
  16. PrincipleInvestment

    PrincipleInvestment Well-Known Member

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    It's not a big glamorous district, so naturally the candidates aren't that exciting. Ossoff doesn't strike me as an over the top liberal, but the idea that most of his campaign funds came from more extreme left donors from out of state is troubling to me. Congressional districts are local elections. Turning this into a national spectacle seems wrong. Face it, the seat is meaningless in legislative terms. Lighten up, $50 million?
     
    PrincipleInvestment, Jun 20, 2017
    #66
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  17. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    The tone of Fox New's coverage of Trump is positive and there is no evidence a Trump supporting network would forge polls to try to make Hillary win. Fox News is literally the anti-Hillary network and really reported on those leaks of Hillary's corruption more than anyone else. They did a good join bringing her down and I don't understand where these accusations of supporting her is coming from.
     
    Distraff, Jun 20, 2017
    #67
  18. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    Fox News is pro trump

    But there are 15 liberal media outlets against only Fox News
     
    Mac-7, Jun 20, 2017
    #68
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  19. Smartmouthwoman

    Smartmouthwoman Bless your heart Past Donor

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    Not in a tread about the election in Georgia. But then again, i dont have TDS.

    With 6% reporting. Its 50/50.
     
    Smartmouthwoman, Jun 20, 2017
    #69
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  20. PrincipleInvestment

    PrincipleInvestment Well-Known Member

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    Early results as reported by CNN @ 9 ET show Handel leading comfortably.
     
    PrincipleInvestment, Jun 20, 2017
    #70
  21. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    The majority of the media is liberal but there are a lot of conservative polling organizations out there, many even more conservative than Fox. For example Rasmussen Reports. Tell you what, if all the pollsters were liberal and had a big bias in their polling, we should see it when the polls don't match the final result. But we don't. Here is an analysis of the bias in different pollsters:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
     
    Distraff, Jun 20, 2017
    #71
  22. GreenBayMatters

    GreenBayMatters Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    GreenBayMatters, Jun 20, 2017
    #72
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  23. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    Inside washington establishment first and conservative after.

    The RNC pays for their polls and that means the inside washington establishment

    But even the most well intentioned pollsters cannot do a good job if they are out of touch with the majority of Americans as people tend to be after they stay in the capital for too long
     
    Mac-7, Jun 20, 2017
    #73
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  24. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    But the RNC supports Donald Trump and their Head Reince Priebus helped Trump a lot during the campaign and he received a lot of funding from them. Pollsters are just ordinary people by the way and polls accurately showed how Hillary's lead collapsed in the final days of the election and predicted that she would win the popular vote.
     
    Distraff, Jun 20, 2017
    #74
  25. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    The RNC is almost as opposed to trump as the democrats are.

    But the RNC fears a backlash from trump voters who are also the base voters of the party

    So they have to wait for the right moment to stab him in the back
     
    Mac-7, Jun 20, 2017
    #75
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