The GA-06 special race: election returns and statistics thread

Turns out just throwing money at an election can't win it. But geez, I can't remember the last time I was following a race where the Republican had more money. It seems to be having less and less of an impact on elections.

 

I wonder if he's old enough to drink.

 

That and Russians.

 

The Republican candidate has won in Georgia by 6 percentage points (53% to 47%)--another case of pollsters getting it wrong.
The Republicans are sweeping the special elections so far while the Russian Collusion becomes an illusion.

What will the Democrats do when Mueller finds no other wrong doing against Trump and closes the books?

 

That would be a good thing, but I think it seems that way because less money is able to cover up the spin and inevitable failures of dems.

We live in the information age, too hard to hide it these days. MSM is crumbling.

 

If he is, he's waiting for his vintage zima to arrive via amazon drone.

 

Someone needs to ask CNN/MSNBC if this is a referendum on the democrat party and its violent rhetoric.

But that wont happen.

 

Are you, by default, referring to the delegates at the DNC convention who still voted for Hillary after it was proven that her campaign and the DNC colluded to cheat Bernie?

You throw unproven accusations at Trump while there was ample proof that your own candidate cheated during the primaries.

So guess what my question would be back towards you ...

 

Those were PRIMARY polls not ELECTION polls!

 

The polls you cited were from February to April of this year! That is NOT recent.

 

Until you realize that "hope and change" is what really made "America great again".

 

You don't need a lot of money for voter suppression; http://www.gregpalast.com/will-new-jim-crow-scam-tip-georgias-ossoff-handel-congressional-race/

 

I haven't noticed. Most of the raises I've gotten in the last 5 years have been eaten up with insurance rate increases.

 

They may not be friends but they still support him over democrats. They don't like him because they know he is an unpopular lying sociopath but their base such as people like you support him.

 

The "Wheel O' Excuses" landed on "misogeny".

 

Ah yes, the self inflicted wounds of the Right to manufacture this artificial failure of Obamacare by not participating in the exchanges coming from Republican governors that ultimately hurt the solvency of the ACA. Such a novel choice at the expense of the most vulnerable among us.
A testament if you will of a Republican party who would rather see the one's least likely to afford HC, make damn sure they still never get HC.

 

And how stupid does Sparky have to be not see that?

 

Apparently those wheels crushed any chances you had of any rebuttal now didn't they?

 

I just thought you'd be happy Georgia isn't a misogynist state.

 

The "most vulnerable among us" had healthcare before ACA, they'll have it after.

The rest can get jobs or go back to their own country.

 

The actual results:


The exact stats, at least as of today circa 1:40 am EDT (straggler votes may adjust this ever so slightly):

Handel 51.87%
Ossoff 48.13%
Margin: Handel +3.74%

Final RCP aggregate, from yesterday and posted HERE : Handel +0.2
This means that Handel outperformed the polling aggregate by +3.5 points, right at the edge of the standard MoE and also indicates that the polling, which also showed a last minute surge for Handel, was pretty good. Last-minute surges are hard to measure, so once again, the aggregate was the better indicator than any one individual poll. The polling organization that showed the margin closest to the actual result: Trafalgar Group (R), the same pollster that showed Trump ever so slightly ahead in PA, WI and MI right before the 2016 election. So, among pollsters, and especially among Republican pollsters, Trafalgar has increased it's standing for accuracy. In 2012, Trafalgar was not accurate, so they must have tweaked their methodology in the meantime.

Tom Price (R) won this seat in 2016 by +23.36%

Swing or Shift = 3.74% - 23.36% = -19.62% (or +19.62%)
(To calculate the swing, you subract the margin from the cycle before, using like-party stats. Any questions on this, people can ask as to why I wrote it this way)

Therefore, from November 2016 to June 2017, this CD swung 19.6 points to the LEFT, not enough for a Democrat to win, but it was also the narrowest race in this CD's electoral history (at least according to the record data we have, not all states keep complete data and CD boundaries change as well). This is now mathematical FACT.

Please notice that I go through this data every bit as acribically when a Republican wins as when a Democrat wins. Because data is data is data is data.

-Stat

 

Or maybe they didn't just want to stuck footing the bill for yet another federal mandate.

 

Yes the russians

They are becoming liberals favorite excuse for failure.

 

No, thats the lie that motivates liberal in the street

The republican leadership just do not want their swamp drained

The repub swamp creatures have accepted waste, corruption and incompetence in government and see no reason to change it

 

I agree with your assessment about Ossoff. I see him as sort of a moderate Democrat.

And it's almost amusing that this race became the spectacle that it did. This is a seat that Republicans have held forever. Price won it by over 20 points. I think the Democrats and their money machine were all excited thinking this was going to be the Democratic version of the Scott Brown special election win. Dipshits. And all that money - WTF? From people (probably Hollywood types) who piss and moan about how the Republicans don't care about the poor and downtrodden. Do you know how many meals $50 million would buy? Democrats are their own worst enemies when it comes to the stupidity factor in life.