What, in your opinion, are the odds of a civil war in America in the next 10 years?

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/09/16/is-the-us-headed-for-another-civil-war/


Good article on the subject.

 

Forgive them, for they are military morons. "War-fighting" is not part of their vocabulary and trying to explain it to them, half of it would go over their heads and the other half would go way, way over their heads.

Relevant.

A civil war, by definition, does not require the involvement of any State or subordinate political unit.

So you say, totally ignoring the factual reality that in the most successful civil wars, less than 10% of the population were involved.

Even in the War of Colonial Independence which everyone erroneously calls the "Revolutionary War," only 10% of colonists were involved.

Not less than 30% and as much as 65% of the colonists were Tories who supported the British government. The remainder didn't give a damn, because at the end of the day, whether George III was running the show or some clown in one of the colonies, it had ZERO bearing on their life.

Quite wrong. The military would be running around like a chicken with its head off doing other things designed to keep them busy.

I am a disabled combat veteran involved in two conflicts. I can tell you what war is really like.

I can also tell you that should a civil war arise, it will be nothing like that.

Not according to the US Supreme Court.

The US Constitution does not expressly forbid rebellion; the Framers of Constitution endorsed rebellion when the cause is just; and your Supreme Court in adopting the doctrine of extra-constitutionality explained that the Government, the States, and the People have all the rights expressed in the Stamp Act Congress, the Declaration of Independence, and the Articles of Confederation.

What morons would use the internet?

You couldn't be more wrong. Non-technology defeats technology all the time.

You erroneously assume everyone is required and obligated to use electronic means of communication when that is utterly false.

You also assume a great many other things.

Text Message: We just ordered pizza.

Now, being the Amazing Kreskin that you are, why don't you display your acumen and tell us what I just meant.

 

Wrong. War is possible. I would gladly welcome all those Apaches, F-16s, and M1s firing indiscriminately in panic mode at civilians.

That just guarantees more people join the rebellion in ever increasing numbers.

Iran has no nukes. Even if Iran would have nukes, none could be delivered to the US.

Play a lot of video games do you?

It would be prudent to ask someone with experience instead of barfing at the mouth. I planned combat operations in Panama and Iraq, because that's we do in the S-3 Section.

Can we all agree it is not a video game?

Can we? Please?

When a Chinese infantry solider walks over a purple flower, he does not get food, water, ammunition and new uniform.

When a Russian tank drives over a green barrel, it does not get fuel, ammo, food and water for the crew.

Why? Because it is not a video game.

Didn't we already agree it is not a video game?

Do you people even understand the meaning of the phrase "basic combat load?"

A company can supply its troops for about 3-5 days depending on the level of intensity. Four or more hours per day is high intensity, so 3 days. An hour or less per day is low intensity, so 5 days. Who resupplies them after that?

Battalions carry 5-7 days worth of ammo, fuel, food and water. Their brigades resupply them and they can do that for 7-9 days.

After that, it's up to the division, which carries about 30 days of fuel, ammo, food, water, medical supplies, parts, etc. etc. etc. Of course, that assumes the supply line is not impeded, meaning there aren't giant craters in the road blocking the path of supply trucks, or bridges that are damaged/destroyed that bar movement of the supply trucks, or that the supply trucks aren't being harassed or interdicted by fires or aircraft, or that the supply depots haven't been fired or bombed into oblivion.

Then it's up to the corps or army for resupply. Again, that assumes the supply lines are unimpeded.

Any country, whether it be China or Russia or any other needs literally 10s of 1,000s of ships to transport troops, tanks, APCs, IFVs, artillery pieces, air defense platforms, vehicles, ammo, fuel, food, water, medical supplies, parts, etc. etc. etc. It would also help to understand basic strategy theory regard force planning. The US, China, Russia, India, Britain, France, Germany, et al prefer odds of 8:1 or 10:1 or worse case 3:1 for engagements. So, yeah, it will take more than a single Chinese infantry or mechanized division. Are you all writing this down?

Neither China nor Russia will invade the US, and the US is never going to invade China.

Your average landing craft holds about 110 troops. That requires a minimum of 27,272 landing craft to invade the US.

That doesn't count landing craft necessary for tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, towed and tracked field artillery, missile artillery, air defense artillery, plus a variety of trucks and other vehicles used for transporting troops, fuel or ammunition, or communications, intelligence, maintenance and medical, and a variety of parts and various supplies, including medical supplies.

Roughly 382,000 in total.

Landing craft are brown-water, not blue-water, so you'd need about 125,000 ships to transport the landing craft, and, then, an appropriate number of major surface vessels and submarines to escort and protect the flotilla.

Civil war or not, it would take China's 8 shipyards 75+ years to build enough ships.

It would take Russia about 53+ years.

And it would $3 TRILLION to $5 TRILLION (in their currencies) a year every year on top of what those governments already spend.

As everyone can plainly see, it is neither financially nor physically feasible.

So, the next time you all see someone spewing nonsense about invading the US, just stomp them into the ground I like just did.

 

How much do you think they'll miss? How much can your buds take? Seems to me they'll get enough after any act to zap the cell, and hopefully the next one up.

 

Trump lowered my taxes (I was able to buy a jacuzzi!)
Biden left Americans abandoned in Afghanistan
Trump actually got SIGNED peace accords in the Middle East.
Biden makes COVID restriction mandatory for Americans but not for illegal immigrants.
Trump gave the military its first real pay raise in years.
Biden seeks to restrict the second Amendment.
Trump clobbered ISIS.
Biden armed the terrorist Taliban.
Trump allowed terminal patients to use drugs not fully tested that might offer hope.
Biden killed pipeline jobs and US energy independence.
Trump got us back in space on US-made rockets.
Biden got 13 US Soldiers killed at the Kabul airport.
Trump made us energy-independent.
Biden opened our border... WIDE OPEN
Trump supported the 2d amendment
Biden indoctrinates our kids with racist "Critical Race theory"

gees... the list is endless

 

https://www.vox.com/recode/22218963/capitol-photos-legal-charges-fbi-police-facebook-twitter

 

https://www.politifact.com/factchec...nald-trump-sign-first-military-pay-raise-10-/

 

Obama CUT military pay… when cost of living is 2.3% and Obama gave a 1.0 % pay “raise”… it is actually a CUT… Obama was supposed to use the ECI (Employment Cost Index) for military pay raises.. he shortchanged the military.. ECI vs Obama “raises”.. 2014(2.3% vs 1.0%), 2015(1.8% vs 1.0%), 2016(2.3% vs 1.3%)… snopes. com/fact-check/obama-cuts-military-pay/

 

From YOUR link;

FACTS matter!

 

The FACTS are that when Obama gave a 1% pay increase and the cost of living went up 2%... it was a pay CUT. Is that too difficult for you to understand?

 

What I am having ZERO difficulty understanding is that YOU are UNWILLING to deal with the FACTS as provided.

That YOU prefer to wallow in the DISINFORMATION of extreme right is YOUR prerogative HOWEVER it does NOT alter the FACTS one iota.

A SMALL pay INCREASE is NOT a "pay cut".

A pay cut means REDUCING pay FROM a LARGER amount to a SMALLER amount.

Words have MEANINGS and FACTS matter!

 

So YOU are calling out the GOP for giving PAY CUTS to MILLIONS of hardworking Americans who are earning Minimum Wage that does NOT keep up with the cost of living increases.

Got it!

 

Try to stay focused, the subject was MILITARY PAY.... MILITARY PAY. Now, if you wish to start a new thread about civilian minimum wage... have at it. I have no interest at all. From high school through college and now in retirement, I never knew anyone that cared about minimum wage. Minimum wage is for teenagers to get date money. Past high school, everyone I ever knew worked hard, studied hard, got educated and earned certifications so we could earn a heckuva lot more than minimum wage.

 

Only ONE of us is having a PROBLEM staying FOCUSED and I KNOW that it is NOT me!


YOU opened the DOOR to the INCREASE in the cost of living!

YOU do NOT get to DICTATE that OTHER ASPECTS of the cost of living CANNOT be ADDRESSED.

If the cost of living impacts military pay then it impacts those hardworking Americans who are FORCED to RELY upon minimum wage to an even GREATER extent give that they have NOT received any pay INCREASES under the GREED obsessed GOP regimes.

The TOPIC in this OP is about the ODDS of another Civil War so YOU are WAY off base by accusing others of NOT being focused when YOU were the one who WENT off on this TANGENT.

FACTS matter!

 

The subject was MILITARY PAY. Now... if you wish to change the subject to something else... fine. I really can't respond much to you... you seem to think that pay raises are given by government decree. I have absolutely no response to that. I have always received pay increases due to certifications, education, and achievement. For example, I got a pay raise when I earned a Master's Degree. I received stock options when I closed a multi-million dollar deal for my company. I never received a pay raise from government dictate. In my world we EARN pay increases, we don't wait for some government entity on high to grant us one.

 

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAA!

I hope YOU didn't HURT yourself MOVING those GOALPOSTS again!

Here is a NEWSFLASH for YOU:

The GOVERNMENT pays the MILITARY!

That YOU are having DIFFICULTY understanding that FUNDAMENTAL concept is NOT my problem.

 

In the military pay is fixed. My first twenty years working were limited that way. Afterwards, I worked in the aerospace industry which is all civilian... all very capitalist... which means your pay is due to MERIT... what you EARN. I understand you are having trouble with this since you wait for variations in minimum wage. The whole idea of being paid what you are WORTH may be too difficult for me to explain to you.

 

That YOU are WALLOWING in the SEWER of flamebaiting ad homs BECAUSE you CANNOT support your position says VOLUMES.

That is what is referred to as a TROLLING response.

Strike ONE!

YOU are DEFLECTING because you CANNOT defend your position on Military Pay because it is BASED upon the SAME cost of living increases that are DENIED to HARDWORKING Americans who have no other option than minimum wage or low paying jobs.

 

You say I "wallow in a sewer" of ad hominems... LOL... hilarious. So saying I "wallow in a sewer" is not an ad hominem attack? LOL... you are what you accuse me of... LOL.... too funny.

Only LOSERS have no option but low paying jobs or minimum wage. LOSERS. One of my roommates at West Point was a guy named Jose. He was raised in a urine smelling tenement in Spanish Harlem. No dad around... mom a seamstress. He worked hard, got into West Point. He's an MD today. Another roommate was the son of a coal miner in Ohio. He's a retired Colonel today. So don't give me your loser attitude about folks having no options but minimum wage. Its totally bogus.

 

IRONIC that you DENIED using ad homs and then went ahead and proceeded to post MORE ad homs!

Strike TWO!

Your ANECDOTES are MEANINGLESS!

FACTS are what matter!

MILLIONS of hardworking Americans are being UNDERPAID while putting in LONG HOURS.

EVERYONE who works a 40 hour week DESERVES to be paid a LIVING WAGE with BENEFITS.

That is what is called the WELFARE of We the People.

Since YOU are UNAWARE of this CONCEPT it appears that you LACK the requisite knowledge to engage in a civil debate on the topic.

That is YOUR problem, NOT mine.

Have a nice day!

 

Unless I've missed something, it seems to me that it is the right wingers here at PF who bring up civil wars and dividing the country into smaller parts. We left wingers were constantly questioned regarding our patriotism because of our dislike for a POTUS, but I don't recall threatening civil war or dividing the country.

 

Anyone that feels underpaid should get off their duff... go to school... get educated or learn a trade... not just sit around waiting for Uncle Sam to hand him/her more money. Living in in poverty is anyone's right... bums are allowed to be bums in our society.

No one "deserves" a living wage and benefits. But people should have the OPPORTUNITY to EARN a living wage and benefits. If they really WANT a living wage and benefits they should get a good education or a valuable trade. Labor is like any other commodity. Labor has VALUE. Ditch diggers earn different wages than neurosurgeons. That's just the way of it. You seem to live in a society which expects a free ride. I don't.

 

Civil war is impossible... but chaos at the hands of Black Lives Matter and Antifa is more than possible. They have already shown they can burn cities, loot property and disrupt society from coast to coast.

 

So much of this list is ridiculously false. Its like your not even trying man.

 

You are correct that it is only the extremist rightwingers who are advocating for a civil war and blaming the left for being the "reason" why they need to wage a civil war.

To instigate a spurious civil war would be the act of traitors, not genuine patriots IMO.

I have little doubt that is NOT how those advocating NEEDLESS bloodshed in order to DIVIDE our nation see it.