Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    I'm aware Texas isn't doing enough testing.
     
  2. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Nice job on the masks.

    Maykaefer Landebahn with obstacles.

    groeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoehl
     
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  3. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    I wonder how much difference it makes in terms of the transmission rate.
     
  4. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I don't like this data because it mixes Covid tracking with Worldometers. But I did it anyway.
    Without NY (state) the rest of the country is flat for the last couple of weeks.
    upload_2020-4-25_8-49-53.png

    New York appears to be driving the curve down-imagine my surprise.
    upload_2020-4-25_8-51-42.png

    Having said this; I can't reconcile these numbers with Cuomo's either. :(
    So I'm still sitting here wondering why we are so flat.
    upload_2020-4-25_9-2-42.png
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2020
  5. Adfundum

    Adfundum Moderator Staff Member Donor

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    I honestly don't know how hard this facility tried. Like you said, some of these facilities are managed inappropriately as the business grows into chain homes. People who've had family members in those facilities said that the management does more to stop news of such diseases than it does to stop the disease.
     
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  6. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Honest, although I do a lot of reading and research due to my own personal curiosity, I do not consider myself this thread's personal research assistant.

    You have a computer which means you also have Google. If you are curious enough to use it to satisfy your own curiosity is up to you.

    Or you can keep "alleging" falsehoods such as S. Korea locked down...without providing your own link.

    When people post here without a link, I take it upon myself to look it up and fact check.



    upload_2020-4-25_11-11-38.png
     
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  7. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Because you need to compare the increase in the number of tests with the number of cases. The fact that we are significantly ramping up testing and the cases are flat is a good sign that the virus spread is slower.

    The case data by itself is somewhat meaningless. You have to know it testing is increasing, decreasing, or flat.
     
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  8. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Also, as I mentioned earlier, as NY cases continue to come down on the other side of the curve, the U.S. should start looking better.
     
  9. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I plotted that. When I adjust for testing the raw number goes down but the shape of the curve remains relatively flat.
    upload_2020-4-25_9-23-37.png
     
  10. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Nursing homes certainly have a reputation to protect in their community which is an incentive to want to hide data....especially when they have people getting sick and keeling over in abnormally high numbers.
     
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  11. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I don't know what dates your Y-axis represent. New York went "flat" from around April 5th - 16th before dropping down.

    This chart is also taking a 7-day average, which is a little easier to read and smooths out inconsistencies in daily reporting.

    upload_2020-4-25_11-31-48.png
     
  12. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    One of their actions is promoting the Trump pill.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nment-waives-regulatory-requirements-for-drug
     
  13. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    Wasn't that the goal? Flattening the curve? So it sounds like mission accomplished to me. Also, a factor that we don't know about is the true rate of infection AKA contagion rate: If it were 100% contagious, we'd all be dead. And we know this, because in our lovely America(and I support it, even knowing the dangers as I alluded to), we are a free nation. This idea of copying off China, etc is not who we are as a people.

    And yes, who we are as a people is even more important than defeating the coronavirus. Because if we defeat the coronavirus and lose our morals to do it, that's called a pythic victory. We gained something, but we lost something of equal importance. I want to defeat the coronavirus with our morals and beliefs in tact.

    There must be a way to make sensible health precautions, while maintaining our freedoms.
     
  14. Adfundum

    Adfundum Moderator Staff Member Donor

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    Yes, they certainly do have to keep an eye on the reputation, but sometimes they focus on one thing at the expense of another. Many homes rely heavily on physician referrals to keep their beds full. In this case, it looks like the home didn't want the physicians to think they were referring patients to an infested place, so they tried hard to downplay the problem. Catching the virus early and preventing the spread would have resulted in an extreme drop in physician referrals. They chose to sit on the problem. I think they will pay the price for that. [sarcasm]Probably have to change the name of their business or something equally as punitive. [/sarcasm]
     
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  15. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    The WHO says 3 feet, which is ridiculous.
     
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  16. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    They are shills for their Chinese masters. They said on 1/14 the virus wasn't contagious, and criticized Trump's effective China travel restriction, now China has similar restrictions. One WHO idiot from Canada would not even answer a question about Taiwan (who has done a good job with the virus) because it would offend China. The current WHO head actually wanted to make the brutal dictator Robert Mugabe a good will ambassador. You can't make this stuff up.
     
  17. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    In terms of which countries are "flattening" the curve versus experiencing more of a peak and then a fall, it appears most countries have a longer time period for cases to drop off whether they experience a short or lengthy plateau period.

    Top ten most impacted countries:

    upload_2020-4-25_12-1-49.png
     
  18. Adfundum

    Adfundum Moderator Staff Member Donor

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    As one who could be considered in a higher risk group, I have a strong concern for what I do see as a moral failing in trying to put all this behind us too fast. As the numbers start to plateau or even drop, we seem to want to kick aside our precautions and reopen it all. But we're still well above the numbers that made us take notice of the problem and begin with the shutdowns and social distancing. It makes me think of lifting burn-bans in areas prone to wild fires just after the fire and before the rain.
     
  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    With real sadness I report that in the last minutes, we crossed over 200,000 dead across the world from COVID-19:

    2020-04-025 COVID early evening 001.png

    2020-04-025 COVID early evening 002.png

    May their memories be a blessing.

    -Stat
     
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  20. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Our local news outlets have started "watchdogging" the nursing homes and other assisted-living facilities in the state, now that the federal government has cracked down on nursing home reporting guidelines.

    One of our news agencies has started it's own dashboard, just for these residencies, so it's easy to compare to the state totals.

    upload_2020-4-25_12-11-18.png

    We have fewer than 600 total deaths in Texas....and 240 are associated with these facilities.
     
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  21. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No one is lifting the burn ban all at once. It's more like we banned burning brush, lighting a campfire and cooking on the BBQ grill in your backyard. Phase I easing allows you to BBQ on your grill. If Phase I goes well, then you can go camping and have a campfire and BBQ on your grill during Phase II. If no major fires start, then in Phase III, you can do a controlled burn of extra brush on your property, enjoy a campfire later in the day, and grill some chicken for the family.

    We have to face the fact that the virus is with us and that from all appearances it is going to be with us for a very long time. There is no vaccine, and we need to deal with the strong possibility that we won't get a vaccine in 12 months, 18 months or maybe ever. Viruses mutate. Any vaccine developed today may not be effective in 12 months, considering mutations make up a moving object.

    Not all countries which have placed severe restrictions on people have succeeded in significantly slowing the spread. Not all countries which allowed people to keep working and keep their economies running while only isolating the elders and reducing "entertainment" gatherings have had their health systems fail. There is no evidence that "lockdowns" work or don't work nor that not locking down works or doesn't work. Best we can say is they work sometimes, but none has worked completely and some countries without lockdowns have fared better than some countries with lockdowns.

    No country in the world can afford to shut healthy people out of their jobs until we have a vaccine which may never arrive. Controlling the spread to the extent that such spread is below hospital capacity is the best we can hope for.

    Imagine the ramifications of telling people that they can't work for 3, 4 or 6 months, but that they will still have to catch up all the late payments on all their rent/mortgage and other bills, some with late fees and interest. Think about rates of depression, suicide, crime, drug use, etc. How many young healthy lives should be sacrificed to save people who have outlived the average life expectancy or whose lives may continue only a few more months/years due to serious medical issues. That sort of choice is painful, but it is a very real choice that people have to make.

    This virus isn't going away any time soon.
     
  22. Adfundum

    Adfundum Moderator Staff Member Donor

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    I think our news outlets will be doing more watchdogging in the future. The nursing home here had one of the first covid-19 deaths in the state, but the name of the facility was not made public. In fact, it was mostly ignored all around until the families started reacting publicly to crisis. Even then, it was presented as angry families and the number of infections was not known until one family filed a suit against the Home. In that sense, the media was ignorant of the facts because there was an effort to keep it all quiet. I'm hoping they do more investigation into such facilities.
     
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  23. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Right. This "calling out" is why I've been critical of Cuomo and DeBlasio for not shutting down NYC schools sooner. We should not divide ourselves into camps where pols are encouraged to do anything other than the right thing. The same is true internationally.
     
  24. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I redid that chart and your right, you can certainly see NY in there, but for example the last few days someplace else is driving it.
    Can you post a link to your chart? Much easier than looking at each day. :)

    upload_2020-4-25_11-21-14.png
     
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  25. Adfundum

    Adfundum Moderator Staff Member Donor

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    I agree that we must find a middle ground solution. I'm optimistic that we can find a vaccine to help slow the spread of the virus because this is a global issue and people from all over the world are working to find a solution.

    As far as lockdowns/social distancing, those are only as effective as people will allow them to be. I've noticed how so many have been flocking to places like Home Depot and Lowe's, for example. Fewer than half the people are wearing masks and keeping away from each other. In that sense, we can't say lockdowns are ineffective unless we also say it's because people are not following guidelines.

    As far as the economy, we're going to take a hit no matter what. But what I'm seeing now is that we actually can virtually print up money to hand out to those unemployed. I have no idea how long we can keep that up--it's certainly a scary thing. We could also take other measures like preventing any kind of punitive actions for missed rent/mortgage/loan payments until after we get back on our feet. Understand that I'm not promoting any of this as an alternative to actually lifting the lockdowns. Just saying there are things we can consider.

    As far as outliving the "average life expectancy," I think that's pretty cold. There are so many things we have come to consider essential to modern life--so much non-essential garbage we can do without. Humans can exist without an economy, so the insistence that we sacrifice certain groups of people for the 'crime' of outliving the average expected life span in order to have a phone and drive a car is a disturbing moral issue in my mind. Besides, it's not just the elderly who are at risk. As I see it, that's the same as those early eugenic intentions. We have the ability to do more than just allow them to die.

    It does seem we're on the same page as far as a gradual return to normalcy. How fast that return will be is the issue.
     
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