Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Yes, it does appear that we have flattened the curve, but that won't make us very happy if 2,000 people a day are still dying.
Our curve is flat while Europe has like 50% of the cases they had at their peak. In other words they are getting better. We don't seem to be getting better just holding steady.

 

January 20, 1981.

 

From my first numbers posting of the day, today:

http://www.politicalforum.com/index...-in-the-world.569531/page-267#post-1071629681

So, the 200,000 mark was cleared at shortly after 13:00 EDT today.

And now, it looks as if we are going to shoot way past 2.9 million COVID-19 cases today. Reasons below:



We are now less than 7,000 cases away from 2.9 million COVID-19 cases, with almost 6 hours left in my day, since I am extending into GMT +0 tonight (explained earlier on this thread), and still 10 hours left on the East Coast of the USA.

The excel-table:



And the countries-table (3 screenshots):





Last evening, at exactly this time, the USA had only registered 17,000 new COVID-19 cases, ended up over +38,000 when all was said and done. Today, same time of day, the USA is already at +20,601 cases. So, we can reasonably expect, with the past as precedent, that at least 15,000 cases will be reported in the USA, but it could go as high as 21,000. The USA is already over +1,000 deaths today. Yesterday at this time, the USA was at 900 deaths.

Also, on the countries list, most nations have reported in, but some relatively larger nations have not. So, it's not unreasonable to see at least 30,000 more cases come in today.

As I feared would happen, and is happening right now, today, the more and more nations go over the 1,000 line, the more and more daily cases they all accumulate, also as more and more COVID-19 tests become available. Not a pretty picture.

-Stat

 

ROFL!!!

LIeber Maikäfer als Zecken, gelle.

Gröööööööööööööööööööööööööööööhl

 

I bookmarked The Gothamist website to keep track of New York data.

https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus-statistics-tracking-epidemic-new-york

 

Yepp.

All people across the world would be well served to study the Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919 (1920) and see how casting precautions aside made it easy for second wave ot the virus to kill between 70-100 million people.

Even if a 2nd wave doesn't come (unlikely), we should collectively, as a world, prepare as if a 2nd wave IS coming.

 

Indeed.

 

Today at 21:08 GMT +2, 15:08 on the East Coast of the USA, we just crossed over the 2.9 million mark:






Flashback:

4 days ago, around 14:00 my time, we crossed over 2.5 million.
3 days ago, at 19:29 my time, we crossed over 2.6 million.
2 days ago, at 21:21 my time, we crossed over 2.7 million.
Yesterday, at 20:38 my time, we crossed over 2.8 million.

See a pattern emerging?

 

I certainly didn't intend to sound eugenic as much as state facts of the matter. People who are most at risk of dying from Covid are most at risk of dying from a variety of other diseases which attack the immune system. Sometimes facts are cold and hard. Another fact is that 85% of people over 80 years old are surviving a bout with this virus. Those surviving octogenarian folks will hopefully become our nonagenarians and then centurions. People under 80 years old have higher and higher odds of survival almost regardless of health conditions.

This virus is certainly deadlier than the flu by far and lands even more people in the hospital by far, but it is also mostly survivable by a large margin. We need to be precautious to make sure we have healthcare capacity to increase survival rates, and with no treatment and no vaccine, that is the best we can offer.

I do hope that they find an effective vaccine, or that the virus mutates and becomes far less deadly (which is entirely possible), but on a worst case scenario, we might have to adjust to a "new normal" future which includes Covid deaths ranking in the top 10 statistics, lower than heart disease and higher the influenza.

And yes, I'm in my usual cranky pessimistic optimistic and jolly mind frame today...more than normal.

 

Our outbreaks started about 2 weeks behind Europe, so you may have to slide the time lines 14 days.

 

Here are some data tables which list the states' trend lines over time by the percentage of that state's testing which are positive cases. The linked article explains how they smoothed uneven test reporting in some states where the reporting frequency is inconsistent.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...in-many-u-s-states/?cid=referral_taboola_feed

 

Missed a section....

 

Would you please forward this to the morons in charge here in California. They just extended the lockdown to May 17th. The daily cases metric has been trending down as well as tests if you ignore the short surge in LA which is 400 miles south of where I am.

 

"Humans can exist without an economy". HOLD the F up bro. I was with you, until that. We wanna go back to trading chickens, and eggs and cows and what not? The barter economy has, for the most part elevated society and if we went full back feudalism, you think Liberals complain about the 1% now? Just wait until pure property values become capital, then it'll be like .05 and the 99.5% of us are broke, including the rich(stocks aren't assets)

 

We also don't know how long immunity lasts, so we would be wise to suppress the virus, then test, trace, isolate, and use PPE to cut the transmission rate in areas with flareups.

All the more reason to develop a long-term strategy of testing, tracing, isolating, and protecting. What we don't want to do ever again is shut down the economy while we distance from each other.

Government should kickstart a rapid expansion of PPE production.

We need to move on from worries about overwhelming the healthcare system and get on with suppressing the virus.

We know social distancing cuts the transmission rate, so let's not pretend it might not.

We can suppress the virus far below our hospital capacity.

Which gets back to testing, tracing, isolating, and protecting. You come across as someone who would reopen parts of the economy too soon and find a significant chunk of the population reacts to the continuing COVID-19 infections by not coming out of their shells.

You would create an economic disaster with this approach because a significant portion of the population, not just including those you're prepared to sacrifice, won't crawl out of their homes and spend money. The 40-year-old doesn't want to bring it home to grandpa, the 30-year-old with asthma, and people afraid of losing their job. How about all the people lined up for food? They're going to hang on to more of their money if and when they get back to work.

Why we need to make protective equipment available to everyone. Why we need to fix the workplace in food processing, factories, etc. Why Trump needs to get off his butt and use the wartime powers to make production of PPE a priority. So what if each of us ends up with a bunch of PPE we never use? We can thank goodness for a cure or vaccine.

 

You have no business calling anyone a moron.

 

End of my day in Germany, the numbers:





I will be closing out my day, however, at 01:20 my time, 40 minutes before EOD GMT +0, just as I went at 00:40 yesterday, using two days to smooth the statistic over from GMT +2 to GMT +0.

 

If we don't get the infection rate wayyyy down, a lot of people, especially the more vulnerable, aren't going to frequent the mall, dine out, go to a bar, ride public transit, or take a trip. I'm not dying for s night on the town.

 

That's why I used days since the peak, because that is the only way you can compare.
That's why the charts have different amounts of data.

 

Wow ... that's quite an array of lifestyle related disease. Thanks for the stats, makes an interesting read. 50% Hispanic is a shock. Is that common, in America?

Meantime, hope this event is giving such people a heads up to put down the beer, cigs, and cheeseburgers and get get outside for a bit of exercise.

 

I subtracted the NY numbers from the total US numbers. No joy.


Your correct though. The number of tests are on the rise again after having been steady around 140,000 a day for a while now. So case data will have less and less meaning and we will be left with deaths. I think I'm about convinced we have quarantined down to an R0 of just less than 1 and are going to have a very slow decline if we don't get a big bounce from turning things lose. I would fell a lot better if we had a contact tracing plan like Cuomo is working on. But with the numbers so large I don't see how you can trace without some privacy violations.

 

Assuming the peak has actually passed in NYC. It could be next week, or next month, or next year. All we know (worldwide, the evidence is clear on this) is that the minute we relax distancing, numbers will rise again.

 

They're working on everything you suggested. Testing, tracing, isolating and ramping up PPE is discussed in every daily briefing. Several states are prepared to move to Phase I now.

 

Daily updates:

This morning (2020-04-025), 10:46 GMT +2.

Early this afternoon, 13:46 GMT +2 (USA only).

This evening, 19:08 GMT +2.

This evening, 20:29 GMT +2.

This evening, 21:10 GMT +2 (2.9 million COVID-19 cases).

2020-04-026 00:04 EOD GMT +2.


At end of my day, but shifted from GMT +1 to GMT +0, 11:21 PM on April 24th, 2020 (GMT +0), here the COVID-19 numbers:

*2,915,264*
+89,229 cases today over yesterday, a record.
203,020 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
1,951 Americans died from COVID-19 today.​

Earlier this evening (21:10 GMT +2), we went over the 2.9 million mark. Yesterday evening (20:38 GMT +2), we sailed over the 2.8 million mark and experienced by far the most confirmed COVID-19 cases in just one day since the tracking began. Thursday in the evening (21:21 GMT +2), we sailed over the 2.7 million mark, so we added 100,000+ cases in less than 24 hours; 10 days ago, we came in over the 2 million mark. 23 days ago, we shot over the 1 million mark. It's as if the 100,000 markers are merely speed-bumps on the highway right now.

The mortality rate (number of total deaths / number of total confirmed COVID-19 cases) remains high, at 6.96% (It was 6.97% yesterday at EOD). That is an enormously high death rate, which has moved incrementally from 3.41% when I began tracking the numbers on 02/27 to now over 6%. That is a +3.6% jump in the death rate in 8 weeks time and for the first time, we have hit 7.0% death rate.

The Excel-Table:



We saw +89,229 new cases today, as compared to yesterday over the day before (+115,741), which was a record-breaking number. That is considerably less cases than yesterday and the sixth day in a row that the number of daily cases swung wildly back and forth + or - to each other. The growth rate was 3.16%. Yesterday, the growth rate was 4.27%.

In terms of deaths: 203,020 total, +6,089 today over yesterday, making for a 3.09% growth rate (yesterday: 3.59%). As with the number of cases, the growth rate in the number of daily deaths has swung wildly back and forth. The death rate, as already noted above, was: 6.96%.

The % of recovered people rose from 27.60% yesterday to 28.62% at EOD today, the largest percentual jump since 03/19 to 03/20.

And per country, most of the countries, first per total cases, (1,000 cases or above):







There are now 85 nations in the "thousand club, with Nigieria and Djibuti having crossed over the 1,000 line today. Of those 85, 32 are now in the "10,000 club". Further, 7 of those 30 are at 100,000 or more (USA, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the UK and Turkey). Italy will likely cross the 200,000 line on Monday. The USA crossed over 950,000 cases today. At this rate of growth, the USA should hit the 1 million mark either Sunday or Monday.

Russia has jumped from 68,600 to 74,600 cases- another very large daily jump, but the actual number of cases there may be considerably higher. At this rate, Russia will surpass China on Monday and become the 9th largest nation in terms of COVID-19 cases. One month ago, Russia has almost no cases.

India, which joined the 10,000 club last Monday, has jumped from 24,500 to 26,300, whereas Pakistan now has 12,600. India has more than 4 times the population of the USA but yet, has administered 10-times fewer tests. Both nations have been incredibly slow to test.

Sweden, which is doing no social-distancing, but rather, is banking on the "herd immunity" theory, has 18,200 cases. The total number of tests administered over the last days has not changed, which means that the slow reporting of numbers means that they are needing time to get the results published. Sweden has only administered 94,500 tests. That's it.

Japan, which appears to be subscribing to the same kind of experiment as Sweden, reported today for the 1st time in 6 days and is now at 12,829 cases.

Brasil has jumped from 53,000 to 58,600 cases. Brasil was until recently the only South American country to see this mega-explosion in the numbers, which is in and of itself a horror story, as Brasil is in the Southern Hemisphere, which means they are currently in their fall, going into Winter - there should under normal circumstances not be any cases there yet. But Ecuador and Peru are now both in double digit numbers, with Peru at 25,300 and Ecuador at 22,700. Ecuador, which suddenly reported 11,000 new cases yesterday (it was a backlog), has not yet reported today. Chile is now at 12,900 and Columbia is at almost 5,000.

A number of countries under the 10,000 mark are starting to report considerably more daily cases and so I am pretty sure that the number of countries at and above 10,000 is about to grow quite a bit this coming week.

Guinea, Tunisia, Cyprus and Bolivia are up next to cross the 1,000 line in the next days. They are moving a little slower than I originally thought would be the case, except for Bolivia.

And here, first per new deaths today, in descending numerical order, then in total deaths and then in total new cases, also descending.





The USA had the most deaths today: 1,951. That is less deaths than yesterday. The UK had 813.

To put these numbers into perspective:​

1.) the current number of confirmed COVID-19 cases (2.91 million) = the population of the entire state of KANSAS (USA), also the population of Shizuoka (Japan).

2.) The current number of people who are still sick with COVID-19 (1.88 million) = between the populations of the entire states of IDAHO and NEBRASKA (USA), also somewhat more than the population of West Yorkshire (UK).

3.) The current number of people who have recovered from COVID-19 (834,000) = more than the entire population of the entire state of NORTH DAKOTA (USA), or the population of Fort Worth, TX (USA) or slightly under the population of Valencia (Spain). This is how big these numbers have become.

4.) The current number of deaths from COVID-19 (203,000) = very close the population of Fayetteville, NC (USA) or the population of Padova (Italy).


With the crazy fluctuations of the last ten days, either in number of new cases or number of daily deaths, all bets are off as to what the "curve" is doing, or not. It's almost as if the curve has caught the flu. But the curve appears to be logistical. Either tomorrow (Sunday) or Monday at the latest, we will cross over the 3,000,000 mark in COVID-19 cases and the chances are very good that the USA will simultaneously cross over the 1,000,000 mark.

-Stat

PS. Starting on Sunday, 2020-04-026, my EOD report will now be synchronized with GMT +0 (which is 02:00 am my time). I will stay up tomorrow night to get the report out, but as of Monday, each report will come out the following morning (my time). We all need our sleep, you know!

 

It's common in California, Arizona, Nevada and Texas, all the border states.

New Mexico has always had a high Hispano population. All the states bordering Mexico have but perhaps not as high as N.M. The lineage which goes back many American generations to the 16th century are Mestizo (a mix of native Indian and Spanish-European) heritage. The same Mestizo lineage group in Texas are called Tejanos. Today, of course, the border states including New Mexico have as many or more new immigrants who identify with traditional Mexican culture more than with the traditional Mestizo-American culture.