Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Like I said, it is debatable. And I was referencing all of the countries you listed, but specifically in regards to Italy...

    We have roughly 5x the number of infections and roughly 2x the number of deaths. On a per capita basis, we will likely pass Italy in terms of infections within the next 2-3 days. As for the mortality per capita, I would like to believe that we will never reach the same level as Italy because that would mean that we lost another ~110,000 Americans.
     
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  2. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    According to the CDC the incubation period is between 2 - 14 days. So my statement is accurate.

    For example Italy has not been hit harder than the US ??
     
  3. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So my statement is accurate.
     
  4. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So with regard to posting on an internet discussion forum my statements are accurate.

    .

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-covid-19-highly-contagious-days-symptoms
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2020
  5. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    ...if that's the lesson you want to learn from our efforts to get you to add nuance and context to your claim, then go for it.
     
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  6. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And again my statements have been accurate. The original claim is that it was all made up. Where is the nuance ???
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2020
  7. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Cases per 100,000.
    Order highest to lowest:
    Spain
    Belgium
    Italy
    U.S.
    France
    U.K.
    Netherlands
    Germany
    Iran

    upload_2020-4-28_8-39-21.png


    Deaths per 100,000.
    Order highest to lowest:
    Belgium
    Spain
    Italy
    France
    U.K.
    Netherlands
    U.S.
    Germany
    Iran


    upload_2020-4-28_8-42-9.png

    (Source: Johns Hopkins)
     
  8. bx4

    bx4 Well-Known Member

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    No. Nothing you said was accurate. I showed you the inaccuracies and provided links to prove that you were wrong.

    The important point: you still haven't given any reason why you think the US system gives "superior" care compared with other countries.
     
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  9. bx4

    bx4 Well-Known Member

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    Nothing you said was accurate, so yeah - you made it up.
     
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  10. bx4

    bx4 Well-Known Member

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    Not two weeks. You gave a specific number, not a window.
    Then you compounded your error by equating incubation period with the period during which someone is contagious.
     
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  11. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Again the statements are accurate.

    The US spends twice as much per capita on healthcare.
     
  12. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So what. Two weeks is an accurate statement and is the length of the standard quarantine period. And people are contagious during the incubation period.

    My statements are accurate.
     
  13. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    When wrong go to personal attacks. The sure sign of lack of argument.
     
  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Smart cookie!
     
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  15. bx4

    bx4 Well-Known Member

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    Per capita spending is not equivalent to quality.
    And no, nothing you said was accurate.
     
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  16. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    No, it shows real wages have increased (before COVID-19) just 7.5% in 41 years.

    AF79D021-33C4-479F-97DF-52F846DD71A9.png

    And that's for full time employees.
    Real income has hardly moved in four decades. Many workers, especially older workers without more up-to-date skills, have seen their wages drop.
    I didn't start anywhere because I didn't create the chart. Such charts tend to start around 1980 because real wages were increasing before then.
     
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  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    And while we are comparing, some eminently simple numbers.

    Here the current figures for the top 27-28 countries, in descending order of number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, from about 20 minutes ago:

    2020-04-028 COVID-19 specific death rates 001.png

    2020-04-028 COVID-19 specific death rates 002.png

    We are circa 11,400 cases away from 3.1 million already.

    You can see that worldwide, the calculated death rate (exact number of deaths / exact number of confirmed cases) is currently 6.89%.

    So, let's see how it looks for some other countries. I will only do three, the rest of you can look at others for yourself:

    2020-04-028 COVID-19 specific death rates 003.png

    The USA: 57043 / 1013290 = 0.05629 = 5.63% death rate, lower than worldwide
    Mexico: 1434 / 15529 = 0.09234 = 9.23% death rate, higher than worldwide

    Sweden: 2355 / 19621 = 0.12002 = 12.00%, slightly less than double the worldwide death rate, more than double the US death rate.
    The population of Sweden = 10,100,000 people. 119,500 tests administered / 10,100,000 people = 11.83% of the population has been tested.

    If we assume that 75% of all Swedes will be infected, 70% of them will be asymptomatic, but 30% will have symptoms and test positive, then:

    10,100,000 * 0.75 = 7,575,000 infected. 7,575,000 * 0.30 = 2,272,500 confirmed (with time) COVID-19 cases. 2,272,500 * 0.12 (death rate) = 272,700 deaths in Sweden.

    It's simple math. Sweden grew +695 cases today. That means a growth rate of 3.67%. So, the growth rate is momentarily logistical, not exponential, but this is no guarantee for the next weeks. Wait and see what the "herd immunity" experiment in Sweden brings. But again, 12% is a VERY HIGH death rate.

    -Stat
     
  18. dagosa

    dagosa Well-Known Member

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    I think it would improve efficiency if men were required to wear pantyhose. It would certainly minimize the number of people who’d want to be associated with them.
     
  19. Adfundum

    Adfundum Moderator Staff Member Donor

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    Same here, but I'm holding a dose of reality in my other hand. Those of us who've been in the situation know that it's not a simple choice to allow family to "expire". It's gut-wrenching and soul-twisting. It's a choice that you live with forever, even if it was the right thing to do. I'm not afraid of my own death, but I do fear putting my family in a situation that would burden them...but then again, they might not struggle so much with that. :)
     
  20. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Sure it is. Why was Italy cutting off ventilator access to those under the age of 60 ??
     
  21. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And the standard of living has skyrocketed. What can be bought with those wages ???
     
  22. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Agreed regarding the point about becoming a burden. It does put it into a different light.
     
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  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Why are we wasting taxpayer money on the Blue Angels? Most health-care workers on the East Coast (where the Blue Angels are flying) are working right now, they won't be able to see it.

    This is just craziness. Anybody know how much it costs to put on such a show?

    You wanna put on a parade? Do it AFTER the event is over, to celebrate!

    Who in the hell gave the order to do this?

    Did we throw victory parades before WWII was won?

    Really, this **** is eminently stupid.
     
  24. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The curve is flattened. That is a victory.
     
  25. bx4

    bx4 Well-Known Member

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    If spending on health care is equivalent to quality you must support Bernie Sanders.
    I didn’t realize you were a socialist.
     

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