Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Bernie’s plan for government control would cut healthcare spending. In the US healthcare consumers spend their money on healthcare. Their premiums actually subsidize Medicaid and Medicare.

 

Why have a problem with a feel good moment right now, the world sure as hell needs it. Parents are going crazy with cooped up with kids, adults going stir crazy sitting around being told to worry 24/7, for months now. This country needs a mental break even if something as small as this, it creates pride in most seeing these unbelievable machines. Does it signify defeat of the virus, hell no but this country is teetering due to this thing and not just about who gets sick and who doesn't.
Many have severe anxiety
Do I have a job
Is my company going to make it
Can I provide food for my family
will I lose my house
on and on and on.

Will this change those, no but maybe just maybe a brief break can help reduce the anxiety if even for a few minutes.

 

After following the data pretty closely within the States for a while (by the way, check out the latest updates to that thread here: http://www.politicalforum.com/index...is-virus-so-far.570731/page-2#post-1071637409 ), I think there is value to be gained from comparing the Rate of Infection on a Per Capita Basis to the Death Numbers on a Per Capita Basis as a method for evaluating different regions. Essentially, how likely is it that a confirmed case of infection will turn into a confirmed case of death in this given area.

For the US as a whole, that ratio is ~5.62%. For Sweden, that ratio is ~12%, but that is lower than Italy, Belgium, France, and the UK. This is a line graph of that ratio from the last 10 days for the countries with more than 1,000 dead (that I have also been tracking over that time frame). You will notice that I am missing Turkey, China, Iran, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil because I have not been tracking their mortality per capitas, but I will probably them in short order.



Edit: Well I'll be *******ned...I just realized that my numbers matched your pretty much precisely. So dividing the per capita mortalities by the per capita infections yields the same result as dividing the total deaths by the total infections. I don't know why I didn't see that sooner.

 

Since Russia is moving up the COVID-19 chain very quickly, I thought that providing some resources would not be a bad idea:

https://visalist.io/emergency/coronavirus/russia-country

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102935/coronavirus-cases-by-region-in-russia/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Russia

Of course, the most cases and the most deaths are coming out of the capitol city, Moscow (and apparently, the Province of Moscow is being counted separately) and then from St. Petersburg.

All but two Oblasts (roughly translated: Province) in Russia have reported infections. That's 44 out of 46.
The other 41 federal "subjects" are either the small nations (vassal Republics) that remained in the Russian Federation, or they are called a "Krai" (old Russian for "cut") - a territory, or they are called an "Okrug" (an autonomous territory). Between the three terms, there are 85 administrative areas of the Russian Federation. Most of the Okrugs and vassal Republics are also reporting infections.

The Kamchatka Peninsula, the most easterly far-flung (and one of the coldest of all) province of the Russian Federation:



Kamchatka also one of the most sparsley populated (pop 324,000), a little more than half the population of the US state of Wyoming, has a landmass of 270,000 sq KM (105,000 sq miles), about the same landmass as Colorado (pop 5,800,000). Kamchatka is hard to reach, most people don't really want to work there. Even in Kamchatka, there are currently 209 COVID-19 cases, very close to the number of cases in the US-state of Alaska. Lots of Russian military are stationed at the lower tip of the Peninsula, keeping an eye on the Kyril Islands, the ownership of which between Russia and Japan is still contested.

Here the case intensity on a map:



The two darkest colored areas are Moscow and St. Petersburg.

This is just in order to get some information out there.

-Stat

 

4 minutes ago, we just went over 3.1 million COVID-19 cases:

 

Focusing a little on the "good news", we are inching ever closer to 1 million people who have 'recovered' from the coronavirus. Seeing that number go up and up, is good for us all and I hope that God/the universe/etc helps us see more recoveries and way less deaths.

 

Quote: You will notice that I am missing Turkey, China, Iran, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil

Reliable numbers, my best guess; Canada

Per capita, since the U.S. surpassed Canada by 1.3 Covid19 doubling time, largely due to testing, both country have been on the same path, however, at a different elevation so to speak.

NOTE: From Jan 28 to Mar 10, per capita, Canada had more confirmed cases than the United States.

CURRENT

U.S.

Confirmed cases; 1,019,823, per capita; 3,081
Number of deaths; 57,601, per capita; 174

Canada

Confirmed cases; 49,025, per capita; 1,299

1,299 + 130% (1.3 doubling time) = 2,988


Number of deaths; 2,766, per capita; 73

73 + 130% = 168

 

You raise a point that I have noticed as well. The percentage of deaths vs recovered globally has finally started to invert again.

 

And there is now some evidence from Kern County CA that the mortality rate is ~ 0.03%.

 

Sweden has high numbers Mon-Fri and low numbers Sat-Sun. It's possible that they are still entering weekend data.

Their chief epidemiologist is still comfortable with the "sustainable" strategy, and the healthcare system is not overwhelmed. He says herd immunity is not the main goal, but that media has misrepresented it as their goal.







https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...eden-anders-tegnell-herd-immunity/3031536001/

 

Basically, Sweden to the West: Stop being pansies. The world will look not to the US or any of the other-so called "Western Powers", but to Sweden for the proper guidance and restraint necessary while dealing with the calamity.

Go Swedes.

 

Plus Sweden will come out of the initial wave with a significant herd immunity and may well not see a second wave this fall. And of course they will not see the mortality associated with the depression like economic numbers coming out of the countries who have locked down their businesses.

 

Due to the "global" economic factors, there might still be a shortage for all nations involved, but if we view macro and microeconomic factors the same, this might actually enable Sweden to be a mini-America in the sense that it's economic wealth relative to depressed countries could allow them to buy the distressed global assets.

Ironically, the proper response to the coronavirus might "Make Sweden Great Again." financially.

 

Sweden has been slowly rolling back their welfare state. Their economy is based on capitalism and the companies that have created the strong economy were all created in much more fiscally conservative Swedish economic times.

 

Trump had a meeting with FL Gov. DeSantis and decided to let the media ask Q's about Florida's Covid response. Florida is doing really well, regardless of "rumors" to the contrary. DeSantis was rather proactive in going into nursing homes early and doing wide-spread testing in those residences.

Florida has had just under 1,200 nursing home cases among residents (less than 1%), and interestingly, about an equal number of cases among nursing home employees.



Press conference with Trump, DeSantis, and Dr. Birx:



Florida Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

 

Loved the part where Dr. Birx showed that the US is actually ahead of South Korea in testing per capita by 17 vs 11 per 100K after the yahoo reporter claimed otherwise. She cheerfully suggested that he check his data.

And the “ladies” of the View went after Dr. Birx for being complicit (in what was not explained) as well for defending Trump forgetting her work on HIV. She is an all star.

 

So, as predicted, we have far outstripped 1,400 daily deaths in the USA today thus far, and there are 2.5 hours before the EOD, GMT +0:



So, with +1,843 deaths thus far (it may very well go over +2,000 before EOD today), even were there to be only 900 deaths tomorrow (which is not going to happen), the two days would still average to: 1400 deaths a day.

Worse yet, this high number is not being driven by deaths out of NY any more (also exactly as I predicted more than once here):



Instead of 800-900 deaths out of NY, today there are until now "only" +243. Still a horrifying number, don't misunderstand me, but this number is far less than the numbers from the last 3 weeks. And that number, 243, right now, represents 13.19% (13.2%) of all US daily deaths thus far today.

Compare that with the USA report from just 3 days ago:

http://www.politicalforum.com/index...-in-the-world.569531/page-274#post-1071632300

Here the table from 2020-04-025, published 2020-04-026:



The deaths out of NY from just 3 days ago represented 29.88% (29.9%) of all deaths in the USA. And with +2,065 deaths that day at EOD, we may still end up with over 2,000 deaths today.

But there is a huge difference whether NY is 30% of all deaths or it is 13.2% and yet, the national horror numbers are close to each other. This is proof positive that other hotspots combined are adding so much to the carnage, this daily number is not likely to be reduced anytime soon.

Sadly, I suspect that those making the models are going to have to revise the horror numbers sharply upward.

 

Florida has 1171 deaths as of today (total). Deaths in Florida nursing homes:




That is about one-third of the state deaths, but considering that the state is one of the country's retirement and snowbird 2nd-home destinations, that's pretty good.

 

YEPP. Great minds think alike!!!

(good work, dude)

 

I am planning to note that as well.

 

No, the standard-of-living has not "skyrocketed." You're making stuff up.

 

The British Columbians GOT IT RIGHT!

Early January Covid19 task force
Early January Airport screening measures, ALL travellers
Prior to Jan 21st, British Columbia Center for Disease Control developed their own test kit
https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2020HLTH0010-000102
+
Aggressive mass testing, no flaws, no delays

NOTE: British Columbia has tested more people for COVID-19 than the entire United States, B.C. Premier John Horgan said. The B.C. Centre for Disease Control (BC CDC) reported that it has tested 1,012 people for the virus as of Feb. 27, 2020. Seven cases of the virus have been confirmed.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6610416/bc-covid-19-testing-more-than-united-states-premier/
+
Lockdowns
+
social distancing

-----------------------------------

British Columbia​

2020 coronavirus pandemic in British Columbia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_British_Columbia

VERSUS

Sweden
2020 coronavirus pandemic in Sweden
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden

COMPARE THE NUMBERS, THEN TALK

RESULTS:

British Columbia
Population 5.11 million
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/bc-population-march-2020

Number of confirmed cases; 1,998.....PER 1M POP; 391
Number of Covid deaths; 103.....PER 1M POP; 20

Sweden
Population; 10.33 million
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/sweden-population/

Number of confirmed cases; 19,621.....PER 1M POP; 1,899
Number of Covid deaths; 2,355......PER CAPITA; 230

 

Let's continue......

British Columbia Debt Clock, per citizen
$13,970...….USD; $9,978
https://www.debtclock.ca/provincial-debtclocks/british-columbia/british-columbia-s-debt/
Credit rating; S&P, AAA, Moody's, Aaa
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/governments/finances/debt/credit-ratings


VERSUS

Sweden Debt Clock, per citizen
187,127 KR...….USD; $18,918
https://worlddebtclocks.com/sweden
Credit rating; S&P, AAA, Moody's, Aaa
https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/rating

DIFFERENCE: $18,918 - 9,978 = $8,940


Assuming BC would borrow to same level as Sweden

5.11 million X $8,940 = $45.6 billion

Question: Can BC afford to shut down for 3 months?

Stay tuned, not done rattling a few cages